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Re: 12-12-09
SPORTS WAGERS
Juan Diaz wins by 12 round decision +1.55 over Paul Malignaggi.
Close fight to call. One thing for sure here, no knockouts are expected in this one, as the soft-handed Paulie “The Magic Man” Malignaggi faces off against Juan “Baby Bull” Diaz. This is the rematch of a hotly contested decision won by Diaz where most experts thought Paulie seemed to have done enough to win. I see this fight going in the same direction as the first on. Diaz will push the pace and keep moving forward and Paulie will circle the ring with his slick-boxing style. Even though Paul Malignaggi showed how to beat Juan Diaz, he still came on the losing end of it. Now Diaz possesses that information and will definitely be ready for Paulie’s game plan. I expect Diaz to be more focused and better prepared this time around as he will earn a unanimous and convincing decision. Play: Diaz by decision +2.55 (Risking 2 units).
Antonio Diaz +6.00 over Victor Ortiz
After hearing Ortiz’s post fight interview in his last time out, I simply cannot afford to miss the boat on this one. “I have some thinking to do and I don't think I deserve to get hit like this”. This was following his brutal loss to Marcos Maidana last June in Los Angeles where this kid simply quit. I am very surprised to see Victor Ortiz fight again as he clearly exposed his mental toughness to the whole world. For a 22-year-old fighter to say stuff like that in his prime says a lot about his will to compete. Now he faces his mentor and childhood idol in Antonio Diaz. The strength for Diaz will be his size, experience and yes; his warrior presence in the ring. It is clear that Diaz is nowhere near what he used to be after so many wars, but this is all about going against a fighter that has some very hard questions to answer. Play: Diaz +6.00 (Risking 2 units).
Diego Sanchez +2.50 over BJ Penn
Folks, get ready for this one. Diego “The Nightmare” Sanchez vs BJ Penn, it doesn’t get any better than this! Diego Sanchez is simply balls to the wall for five straight minutes each and every round. He’ll look to wear Penn out swarming him with strikes and relentless takedown attempts. Penn’s strength & conditioning training with the infamous Marv Marinovich paid off against Kenny Florian. Penn was in the best shape of his life and he’s brought back Marv for this one. But come on, Diego is no Kenny Florian and this is no three-round fight. On my watch, as long as BJ doesn’t win by stoppage, he will lose each and every single time. Now on paper, BJ Penn shouldn’t have too much trouble winning this fight. His boxing and jiu-jitsu are superior to Sanchez’s and his takedown defense is typically stellar when he’s not facing GSP. But I just see Sanchez coming out ready to feast on BJ and prove to the whole world where he truly belongs; right there as the world champion. This fight will be at 155 pounds, a division where Diego has looked nothing less than impressive as he came all the way down from the 170 division in his last three fights and dominated. This will be too much for BJ Penn to handle, Diego Sanchez in pretty dominating fashion. Play: Sanchez +2.50 (Risking 2 units).
Frank Mir wins inside distance +1.02 over Cheick Kongo
This is Frank Mir’s first fight since being disrespected in the middle of the ring, on national TV and in front of the whole world by Brock Lesnar. Wow, I wouldn’t wanna be the first one facing him after this humiliating night versus the freak of nature. Mir is currently trying to make his way back toward the top of the division in hopes of a rubber match with Brock Lesnar after being completely dominated at UFC 100 at his own game. Kongo is looking to rebound from his loss to Cain Velasquez at UFC 99 after nearly punching Velasquez out in each of the three rounds, but eventually succumbing to Velasquez's wrestling background. Well I have some bad news for you Cheick, you are facing one of the best Brazilian jiu-jitsu specialists in the UFC and if Kongo fights like he’s known to fight, this one won’t be too long. There's no mystery on how each fighter will approach this fight. Mir isn't going to come out and try to prove that he has K-1 level striking, as he's said in past fights. He'll be looking to work his exceptional ground game to transition from submission to submission to catch Kongo's lengthy limbs. Kongo will want to work his reach and power from a distance with the help of his Mai Thai background to punish Mir. It's a simple, straightforward fight that has a lot of interesting questions that will be answered. Kongo's inability to block takedowns has been the sole reason he isn't an undefeated fighter and the reason why he will lose come Saturday night. Mir by easy submission. Play: Mir inside distance +1.02 (Risking 2 units).
Adrian Diaconu +2.60 over Jean Pascal
The first time these two met, Adrian Diaconu had previously fought once in a span of 3 years and still managed to lose a very close decision. This time however, rust won’t be a factor. “I improved everything; my speed, my footwork, I’m smarter and I feel better. I trained so hard and this time theres no excuses.” Adrian is a bull, he always gives up height advantage to his opponents but Teddy Atlas said it best, he is the closest thing to Mike Tyson when styles are compared as this guy can literally thump. I don’t get it, Jean Pascal defended his light heavyweight title on September the 25th in a hard fought bout against Silvio Branco and two months later they ask him to step in the ring against the shark? I expect two things to possibly happen, fatigue due to overtraining or an ineffective preparation caused by the lack of time in between. With all that aside, I really believe Adrian has the better chance of getting crowned at the end of the night. He gave Jean Pascal fits in their first encounter by rocking him a couple times and almost putting his lights out. Calling the upset, Adrian Diaconu comes out on top, possibly via a referee stoppage. Play: Adrian Diaconu +2.60 (Risking 2 units).
SPORTS WAGERS
Juan Diaz wins by 12 round decision +1.55 over Paul Malignaggi.
Close fight to call. One thing for sure here, no knockouts are expected in this one, as the soft-handed Paulie “The Magic Man” Malignaggi faces off against Juan “Baby Bull” Diaz. This is the rematch of a hotly contested decision won by Diaz where most experts thought Paulie seemed to have done enough to win. I see this fight going in the same direction as the first on. Diaz will push the pace and keep moving forward and Paulie will circle the ring with his slick-boxing style. Even though Paul Malignaggi showed how to beat Juan Diaz, he still came on the losing end of it. Now Diaz possesses that information and will definitely be ready for Paulie’s game plan. I expect Diaz to be more focused and better prepared this time around as he will earn a unanimous and convincing decision. Play: Diaz by decision +2.55 (Risking 2 units).
Antonio Diaz +6.00 over Victor Ortiz
After hearing Ortiz’s post fight interview in his last time out, I simply cannot afford to miss the boat on this one. “I have some thinking to do and I don't think I deserve to get hit like this”. This was following his brutal loss to Marcos Maidana last June in Los Angeles where this kid simply quit. I am very surprised to see Victor Ortiz fight again as he clearly exposed his mental toughness to the whole world. For a 22-year-old fighter to say stuff like that in his prime says a lot about his will to compete. Now he faces his mentor and childhood idol in Antonio Diaz. The strength for Diaz will be his size, experience and yes; his warrior presence in the ring. It is clear that Diaz is nowhere near what he used to be after so many wars, but this is all about going against a fighter that has some very hard questions to answer. Play: Diaz +6.00 (Risking 2 units).
Diego Sanchez +2.50 over BJ Penn
Folks, get ready for this one. Diego “The Nightmare” Sanchez vs BJ Penn, it doesn’t get any better than this! Diego Sanchez is simply balls to the wall for five straight minutes each and every round. He’ll look to wear Penn out swarming him with strikes and relentless takedown attempts. Penn’s strength & conditioning training with the infamous Marv Marinovich paid off against Kenny Florian. Penn was in the best shape of his life and he’s brought back Marv for this one. But come on, Diego is no Kenny Florian and this is no three-round fight. On my watch, as long as BJ doesn’t win by stoppage, he will lose each and every single time. Now on paper, BJ Penn shouldn’t have too much trouble winning this fight. His boxing and jiu-jitsu are superior to Sanchez’s and his takedown defense is typically stellar when he’s not facing GSP. But I just see Sanchez coming out ready to feast on BJ and prove to the whole world where he truly belongs; right there as the world champion. This fight will be at 155 pounds, a division where Diego has looked nothing less than impressive as he came all the way down from the 170 division in his last three fights and dominated. This will be too much for BJ Penn to handle, Diego Sanchez in pretty dominating fashion. Play: Sanchez +2.50 (Risking 2 units).
Frank Mir wins inside distance +1.02 over Cheick Kongo
This is Frank Mir’s first fight since being disrespected in the middle of the ring, on national TV and in front of the whole world by Brock Lesnar. Wow, I wouldn’t wanna be the first one facing him after this humiliating night versus the freak of nature. Mir is currently trying to make his way back toward the top of the division in hopes of a rubber match with Brock Lesnar after being completely dominated at UFC 100 at his own game. Kongo is looking to rebound from his loss to Cain Velasquez at UFC 99 after nearly punching Velasquez out in each of the three rounds, but eventually succumbing to Velasquez's wrestling background. Well I have some bad news for you Cheick, you are facing one of the best Brazilian jiu-jitsu specialists in the UFC and if Kongo fights like he’s known to fight, this one won’t be too long. There's no mystery on how each fighter will approach this fight. Mir isn't going to come out and try to prove that he has K-1 level striking, as he's said in past fights. He'll be looking to work his exceptional ground game to transition from submission to submission to catch Kongo's lengthy limbs. Kongo will want to work his reach and power from a distance with the help of his Mai Thai background to punish Mir. It's a simple, straightforward fight that has a lot of interesting questions that will be answered. Kongo's inability to block takedowns has been the sole reason he isn't an undefeated fighter and the reason why he will lose come Saturday night. Mir by easy submission. Play: Mir inside distance +1.02 (Risking 2 units).
Adrian Diaconu +2.60 over Jean Pascal
The first time these two met, Adrian Diaconu had previously fought once in a span of 3 years and still managed to lose a very close decision. This time however, rust won’t be a factor. “I improved everything; my speed, my footwork, I’m smarter and I feel better. I trained so hard and this time theres no excuses.” Adrian is a bull, he always gives up height advantage to his opponents but Teddy Atlas said it best, he is the closest thing to Mike Tyson when styles are compared as this guy can literally thump. I don’t get it, Jean Pascal defended his light heavyweight title on September the 25th in a hard fought bout against Silvio Branco and two months later they ask him to step in the ring against the shark? I expect two things to possibly happen, fatigue due to overtraining or an ineffective preparation caused by the lack of time in between. With all that aside, I really believe Adrian has the better chance of getting crowned at the end of the night. He gave Jean Pascal fits in their first encounter by rocking him a couple times and almost putting his lights out. Calling the upset, Adrian Diaconu comes out on top, possibly via a referee stoppage. Play: Adrian Diaconu +2.60 (Risking 2 units).
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