Tweet
Re: 12-12-09
northcoast
army top op
northcoast
appalachian st reg play
northcoast
army top op
northcoast
appalachian st reg play
-
Re: 12-12-09
Demarco
Saturday's Play
10 Dime - Washington State
You have no idea how tempting it was to back Washington against Georgetown today, especially with the Huskies just one game removed from a double-overtime loss at Texas Tech and the Hoyas coming off a wire-to-wire rout of Butler. But, how many times have I said over the past 25 years that the marquee games are the toughest to win because their lines are always the sharpest? There's a reason that contest is priced right around 1 to 1 1/2 points and that's enough reason for me to stay away.
I used the same philosophy on Tuesday when the world was on Butler against Georgetown - and lost. Instead, I turned to the Lone Star State that night and produced a 5 dime winner on Texas Tech against TCU.
Same thing on Wednesday when I considered Connecticut versus Kentucky, but opted instead to travel to Tucson and back Arizona as a 5 dime play in a rout of Louisiana Tech.
Forget about my 5-0 NFL run that's produced 85 dimes profit the past two weeks; today it's all about taking the profit from this week's two college winners and putting it right back on the best game on today's board, another relatively obscure match-up between Washington State and Air Force in Spokane.
Remember when I said on Wednesday Louisiana Tech was overrated at 7-1 because of its weak schedule? That was one of the many reasons I went against the Bulldogs that night at Arizona and the Wildcats rolled in a rout. If Tech was overrated at 7-1, I don't know what adjective I can apply to Air Force's 5-2 record heading into today's game in Spokane against Washington State.
On the surface, 5-2 sounds impressive for the Service Academy school, but when those five wins come against the likes of Western State Colorado, Dickinson State, Charleston Southern, North Carolina Central and Prairie View - all at home no less - I can't get too excited. The Falcons' two losses? They got drilled at home by Northern Colorado, 70-46, and lost their only road game at Missouri State, 58-48. And here's something to chew on: in those two losses, they committed 17 and 16 turnovers, respectively. That's troubling when you consider Washington State forces on average 15.8 turnovers a game. And it's fair to say the Cougars are a bit better than Northern Colorado and Missouri State.
Air Force is a young team that regularly plays four freshman. And its starting center, Sammy Schafer, is expected to miss his fifth straight game today because of a concussion. But in keeping with the youth movement, the team hopes another freshman center - Taylor Broekhuis, who is a game-time decision after missing the last four games with a leg injury - might be able to help in the pivot.
What do I know about Washington State? They've got one of the best shooters in college - the nation's second-leading scorer - in 6-6 guard Klay Thompson, who is averaging 25.8 points on nearly 49% shooting from the field, including 44% from beyond the arc. He's also second on the team in rebounds (5.6 pg) and first in steals (2.1 pg). Perhaps you didn't know, but he also has the pedigree; his father is former Laker Mychal Thompson, who was the No. 1 overall draft pick in the NBA by Portland in 1978.
Washington State is not the methodical, low-scoring team that you've grown accustomed to over the years with the Bennett's - first Dick and then his son, Tony - in charge. First-year coach Ken Bone - who previously led Portland State to Big Dance appearances the past two years - allows his squad to run the floor a bit and it's reflected in the 80.2 points per game it averages.
The Cougars have lost two games this season. The first came at Gonzaga, 74-69, as a 10-point dog. Not surprisingly, three days later in Manhattan, Kansas, they played their worst game of the season, getting destroyed by K-State 86-69. Clearly they came out flat following the Gonzaga game and subsequently had no answer for the Wildcats' quickness and speed as they were buried by 20 early.
Quickness and speed; those are two factors Washington State won't have to worry about from Air Force today. For years the Falcons have relied on slowing down the pace of the game, using a strong half-court game, tough defense, and accurate three-point shooting to compete with more athletic foes. This year, they've shown a tendency to run a bit more, but this is still a team that went 0-16 in Mountain West Conference play a year ago and one that relies heavily on freshmen to contribute this season.
Air Force's toughest opponent this season has been Northern Colorado, and it was hammered in that game with its leading scorer, Grant Parker (18.2 ppg), held to just one point on 0-for-10 shooting from the field. This game might be on a "neutral" court in Spokane, but it's as much of a home game as one can possibly be for Washington State. And considering the Cougars, just one game removed from consecutive losses, took the foot off the pedal late in their last game against Idaho, I don't expect a repeat performance today. Although they easily covered as a 7-point home chalk in the 76-64 win versus Idaho, they allowed the Vandals to make a late charge that cut the deficit to seven in the closing minutes.
Today I expect a wire-to-wire effort this time with no slacking off near the end as the Cougars take advantage of a soft spot in their schedule and continue to prepare for their Pac-10 opener against Oregon in Pullman on New Year's Eve.Comment
-
Re: 12-12-09
Marco D'Angelo | CBB Sides Sat, 12/12/09 - 8:00 PM Û‰
triple-dime bet 570 Nebraska -6.5 (-110) BetUS vs 569 Oregon St.
Analysis: PLAY: NEBRASKA
RATING: TRIPLE DIME PLAY
Nebraska has won 5 of their last 6 with only loss coming to rival Creighton. We are getting good line valuƒe here as my numbers have Nebraska winning by 13-17 points. Early season Basketball is where you find the softest lines this is one of them. This Game will be a Massacre. TAKE NEBRASKA as MARCO'S 7* COLLEGE MASSACRE GAME.
Marco Rated this Play a 7* PLAY on his Executive Late Phone Service
BONUS PLAYS
PLAY: TOWSON ST
RATING: DOUBLE DIME PLAY
Live Dog here Towson cached George Washington off a barnburner with Providence in last game. UPSET SPECIAL. Take TOWSON ST
Marco Rated this Play a 5* on his Executive Late Phone Service
PLAY: GEORGETOWN
RATING: DOUBLE DIME PLAY
First true road test for Georgetown and I like them to get the job done. Washington really hasn't beaten anyone good and will have their hands full with Georgetown defense. Georgetown wins by 7-9 points. Take GEORGETOWN.
Marco Rated this Play a 4* on his Executive Late Phone Service
555 James Madison 6.5 (-110) Sportbet vs 556 E. Mich
Analysis:
PLAY: JAMES MADISON
RATING: SINGLE DIME PLAY
JAMES MADISON should keep this close as public is all over E. Michigan expecting them to bounce back following Ohio St ass beating they took. This goes to the wire grab the points. Take JAMES MADISON.
Marco Rated this Playƒ a 3* on his Executive Late Phone Service
561 Kansas St. 2.5 (-110) Sportbet vs 562 UNLV
Analysis:
PLAY: KANSAS ST
RATING: DOUBLE DIME PLAY
KANSAS ST will be totally focused for this match up against UNLV. Noƒte this is not a true home game for UNLV as their regular home the Thomas & Mack Center is home to the Rodeo this week. Live Dog another Upset Call. Take KANSAS ST.
Marco Rated this Play a 4* on his Executive Late Phone ServiceComment
-
Re: 12-12-09
Maximus late plays
BEST BETS:
Take the WESTERN CAROLINA CATAMOUNTS +14 vs. Louisville Cardinals.
Location: Freedom Hall on the Campus of Louisville. Time: 4:00pm EST
EVALUATION: The Cardinals are 5-2 SU, and have been beating up on inferior competition, but when they have faced fairly descent teams they have struggled, and have even lost 2 games to UNLV in Las Vegas, and to Charlotte at home. The Catamounts on the other hand dropped their only ball game to #2 Texas back on the 18th of November, and have since won eight in a row. They have went on the road in 3 of those 8 games and have won those three road games by an avg. of 10 pts, and we like the way the play defense, we don’t think they will win this game, but we think they will keep it closer than 15. NOTE: THIS IS OUR TOP BEST BET OF THE DAY.
PROJECTION: LOUISVILLE 71 WESTERN CAROLINA 65
TAKE the MISSISSIPPI ST. BULLDOGS -5.5 vs. UCLA Bruins. Location: Pauley Pavilion.
Time: 4:30pm EST
EVALUATION: We have been on the opposite side of the Bulldogs in their last two games, their early losses effected our evaluation of the Bulldogs, and we learned a lesson. In this game the Bulldogs come into the game with the 32nd ranked road scoring avg. and that with UCLA’s 64.5 home scoring avg. which ranks 295th in Div. 1 gives us good reason to believe the Bulldogs can cover the spread here. In four of their last 5 games, the Bulldogs have kept their opponents below 55 pts a game, and we just don’t see any reason why UCLA will keep this close.
PROJECTION: MISSISSIPPI ST. 72 UCLA 57
TAKE the UNLV RUNNIN REBELS -2 vs. Kansas St. Wildcats. Location: Orleans Arena – Las Vegas, NV Time: 7:00 EST
EVALUATION: This is going to be a pretty good matchup between two teams that are putting up some pretty good numbers so far. The 8-1 SU Wildcats have been enjoying the comforts of home with 8 of their 9 contests taking place in Manhattan, KS. The Wildcats loss came to the hands of a very good Mississippi team, and now traveling to Vegas to face UNLV we think this will be a problem for the Cats. UNLV comes in undefeated, and have beat some pretty good teams such as Louisville and Arizona in the past week, and they have been putting up over 82 points a game at home. This may not be a true home game in the Thomas & Mack Arena, but a 1 mile drive is not that far. Lon Krueger’s team is very good at not turning the ball over, and we feel that this is just one of the reasons that the Runnin Rebs will take this game.
PROJECTION: UNLV 78 KANSAS ST. 71
Take SACRAMENTO ST. HORNETS +16 vs. Pacific Tigers. Location: Spanos Center on the campus of the Tigers. Time: 10:00pm EST.
EVALUATION: Even though the Hornets are 4-6, they have only been getting beat by an average of 5.8 points a game. They are putting up only 61 pts a game average, and have been playing good defense to allow opponents only 67 pts avg. We don’t expect the Hornets to shoot as bad as they did in their last game where they shot a measly 23% from the field against USC. We expect them to have a better shooting day today, and to keep this game close with the Tigers who have only been beating opponents by 3.1 points a game.
PROJECTION: PACIFIC 65 SACRAMENTO ST. 59
SOLIDS:------------------------------------PROJECTION
LOYOLA-CHICAGO -5.5 vs. San Francisco _____________Loyola 75-61
LOYOLA-MARYMOUNT +20.5 vs. Notre Dame _________Notre Dame 78-69
MISSOURI ST. -3.5 vs. Arkansas St. __________________Missouri St. 75-66
OVER/UNDER:
UNDER 149 Florida Atl / UL Laffayette _________________ 125
OVER 145 New Mexico/Texas A&M ___________________155
MONEYLINE:
FLORIDA ATL +476 ____________________________Florida ATL 64-61
ALABAMA +193 _____________________________ Alabama 72-69Comment
-
Re: 12-12-09
ASA's 3-Star play on: UNDER 206.5 Pacers @ Wizards - 6:00 pm CST (2 basketball picks on Saturday - next update Sunday at 10:30 am CST)
Tonight in the NBA we play UNDER in the Pacers at Wizards game. First of all, I'll apologize as this analysis will not be as in-depth as my usual write ups due to time constraints. Indiana is without their leading scorers and one of the best scorers in the NBA with Danny Granger sidelined for the next 4-6 weeks. A team like the Pacers will have a tough time making up for his 25 ppg average.
Indiana is coming off a win last night over the pathetic Nets at home 107-91 and that game helps us with our 'under' call tonight. The Pacers have REALLY struggled when playing the second night of a back-to-back concerning the total as they are 4-0 'under' this year in that situation while averaging just 180 ppg. Let me repeat that...180 points per game!
When Vegas has posted a total of 200 or more points on both of these teams the 'under' has responded with a solid 15-4 record. In their last five games the Pacers 'D' has held foes to just 42% shooting but their 'stroke' on offense hasn't been good as they're hitting just 42% of their shots.
Both teams are in the top 14 in the league in pace of play, meaning they like to get up and down the floor, but it doesn't translate to a lot of points as they are both 24th and lower in the NBA in offensive efficiency. Based on my math model this game stays below the number by 9 full points. Play UNDER!Comment
-
Re: 12-12-09
Scott Rickenbach’s
Players NBA 8* Saturday on OVER the total in Detroit on Dec 12th
Scott Rickenbach’s NBA 8* (Regular Play) OVER the total in Detroit vs Golden State @ 7:35 ET – RATING SYSTEM: Plays range from 6* up to 10*. The 6*, 7*, and 8* picks are the normal, daily play ratings. The 9* and 10* picks are the higher-rated plays and are Top Plays! A 10* Top Play is rare and, of course, is a level above a 9* Top Play!
The Pistons have been playing short-handed but you wouldn’t know that from looking at their recent results. Detroit has averaged 98.5 points per game during their four game win streak. In their nine games that preceded this winning streak (this included time when the Pistons were healthier) they only averaged 90.6 points per game. Now this resurgent offense will take advantage of a Golden State team that has allowed 111.8 points per game this season. Also, the Warriors defense isn’t likely to be at it’s best tonight after they had to go to overtime in Chicago last night – and they still lost to the Bulls. Note that the Warriors are 4-1 to the over in the second night of their last 5 back to backs. Golden State has a tendency to push the pace offensively when in a back to back – because that’s all the Warriors really do well – but their already porous defense has a tendency to suffer. Surprisingly, the Warriors have stayed under the total in three straight games (facing weaker offenses has impacted that) but note that Golden State is 14-6 to the over when they have stayed under the total in three or more consecutive games! As for the Pistons, they’ve shown a willingness this season to join the “run and gun” when they play a skilled offensive team. Against teams averaging 99 points or more per game, the Pistons have gone over the total to the tune of an 8-4 record this season. We’ll put this combined 22-10 ATS mark in favor of the over to work for us tonight. Play OVER the total in Detroit as an 8* Regular Play selection.Comment
-
Re: 12-12-09
ASA's 5* play on: Texas A&M (-1.5) ov New Mexico - Dec 12
ASA's 5-STAR PLAY ON #552 Texas A&M (-1.5) vs. New Mexico, Saturday at 5:00 PM CST (2 basketball picks on Sunday - next update on Sunday after 10:30 am CST)
The Lobos are undefeated on the year, however this is where it comes to an end. Don't get us wrong, we do like New Mexico as a team, but not in this spot.
The Lobos have played just three road games this year and all have been against fairly poor competition. The won at Hawaii, at New Mexico State and at San Diego. Not one of those teams is currently above the .500 mark. NM's most recent game was their 82-78 win @ San Diego on Wednesday of this week. Thus, they are traveling for the second time in just a few days as this one is being played in Houston. We were on the Lobos a week and a half ago when they played host to Cal. They won that game by 8 at home. However, winning at the Pit in Albuquerque vs. a good team is a whole different story than playing an 8-1 A&M team in Texas. The Pit is a very difficult venue in which very few visitors come away winners. However, other than their Cal win, this team has played a VERY tame schedule to date. Besides the Bears, they have played only two teams that currently have a winning record and BOTH of those were at home (UC Riverside and LouiSIAna Tech). This will be their toughest game to date by far.
As we mentioned, the Aggies are 8-1 on the season. However, unlike New Mexico, they have played a very tough schedule to get them prepared for this one. They have already played the likes of Minnesota, Clemson and West Virginia all on neutral courts. Their only loss was a 73-66 setback vs. a top notch West Virginia team. The Mountaineers have won their other five games by an average margin of 22.4 points per game giving you an idea of just how good they are. The Aggies are a veteran team led by three seniors (Donald Sloan, Bryan Davis and Derrick Roland) who have been ultra successful winning an average of 25 games per season the last three years. For their careers these three have already captured 87 wins.
These two have almost identical numbers on the season. Each shoot the ball at a 46% clip and allow right around 41%. The rebounding numbers are very close and neither team turns the ball over much. That gives the edge to A&M in our view as they have played the much tougher slate to date. Also, with this game being in Houston, the Aggies will have the following behind them. At this number, we side with Texas A&M.
Best of Luck, ASA.Comment
-
Re: 12-12-09
Street Rosenthal 12.12
Street Rosenthal of HandicappingTrends
*200 Indiana Pacers +8 (NBA)
*200 Dallas Mavericks -6 (NBA)
*200 Utah Jazz -1 (NBA)
Trey Scott of HandicappingTrends
*200 Purdue -5 (CBB)
*200 Gonazaga -13 (CBB)
NO FOOTBALL PLAYS TODAYComment
Comment