12-13-09

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-13-09

GoodFella | NFL Side Sun, 12/13/09 - 4:15 PM Â~

triple-dime bet 130 DAL -3.0 (-110) Bodog vs 129 SDC
Analysis:
This is my ONE AND ONLY NFL Game of the Year Release

I'm going to grade this as a 4* (Four-Star) Release- My ONLY 4* Release as a Pregame Pro

I absolutely love how this one is shaping up- and I see GREAT VALUE getting Dallas at -3 in this spot on Sunday. San Diego has ripped off 7 straight wins & are the "darlings" of the NFL right now- as they are the "hot and sheek" team right. The Public is pounding the Chargers to a 70%, and they will keep betting them all week and right up until kick-off, as the whole world knows about the struggles the Cowboys have had in December. Dallas is a whole different animal at home in their new stadium- and I have backed them with Top Plays in blowout Wins over Atlanta and on Thanksgiving over Oakland. Taking a closer peek at some of the Chargers wins during their 7 game win streak- we see they have two wins over KC, one win over the Browns, one win over Oakland & finally a win over a Broncos club who was playing without their starting QB Kyle Orton. Also of importance here for San Diego- is the faœct they are playing their 3rd road game in 4 weeks, and clearly Dallas & their fans will be extremely fired up for this game, coming off the loss at the NYG last week, in a game they easily could have won- but they let it get away late in the game. This game and line sets up perfect IMO- with the Cowboys laying only a field goal AT HOME due to the Chargers (7 game win streak) and the fact that Dallas is coming off a loss and public knowledge of their "December Struggles"....Bottomline for me here- I really look for Another VERY STRONG all around game from the Cowboys in this spot and I think the Chargers have more then their hands full vs a very pissed off and motivated Cowboys team on Sunday. Lay the short number here with the Cowboys on Sunday fellas

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-13-09

Bob Valentino

40*

Dallas Cowboys -3 1/2

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-13-09

Rocketman

ATLANTA HAWKS -12.5

New Jersey is 31-53 ATS last 3 years when playing against a team with a winning record. New Jersey is 3-11 ATS this year against good offensive teams scoring 99 points per game or more. Atlanta is 16-6 ATS in all games this year. Atlanta is 23-10 ATS last 3 years in December. Atlanta is 5-1 ATS this year against Atlantic Division opponents. New Jersey is scoring only 88.5 points per game overall and 88.6 points per game on the road this season. Atlanta is scoring 111.1 points per game at home this year. Nets are 21-44-2 ATS in their last 67 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Nets are 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 games as a road underdog of 11.0 or greater. Nets are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 vs. Eastern Conference. Nets are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a SU loss. Nets are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games as an underdog. Nets are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games playing on 1 days rest. Nets are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games overall. Nets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games. Nets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog. Nets are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 Sunday games. Nets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning SU record. Nets are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. Hawks are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 Sunday games. Hawks are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. NBA Atlantic. Hawks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Hawks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Hawks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Hawks are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games following a ATS win. Hawks are 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 games as a home favorite. Hawks are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 home games. Hawks are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games as a favorite. Hawks are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a losing SU record. Hawks are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. Hawks are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 vs. Eastern Conference. Hawks are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. We'll play Atlanta for 3 units today! Thanks and good luck, Rocky.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-13-09

Evan Altemus

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES -1

New York still has significant problems despite their win last week. Dallas outplayed them and should have won. The Giants secondary still has problems, and they were exploited by the Eagles earlier in the season. Philadelphia has one of the best passing attacks in the NFL, and New York doesn’t match up well against them. The Eagles have played well on the road this season, and they have played well against the Giants recently, winning their last three games against them. Philadelphia will have Desean Jackson back for this game as well, and he is a significant key to the offense. Look for the Eagles to get the road win.

3 UNIT SELECTION EAGLES.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-13-09

Mike Lineback

WASHINGTON REDSKINS -1

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-13-09

Bob Balfe

CHICAGO BEARS +4

The Packers will be without their Nose Tackle and Jolly might not play. This Green Bay line is banged up and coming off a short week. The Bears are the home team and matchup well on offense. Chicago has two big cover corners that will shut down the Green Bay passing game. Look for the Bears to get a big cover.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-13-09

Greg Shaker

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS +4

Am I missing something here? Jets without Sanchez today and the Bucs are playing good football. They should have won last week and I think they will this week, outright. Take Tampa Bay.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-13-09

seabass

50 *den/ind under w nyg/dall under teaser
100* kc
200* jaguars
100* dallas
100* cinn
100* nyg
400* bears

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-13-09

Lenny Del Genio

BUFFALO BILLS -1

Kansas City is just awful and does not deserve to be favored (0-5-1 ATS L3 years when laying points) against anyone, which is probably why we've seen the change in roles early in the week. The KC defense is allowing nearly 400 yards per game and has been shredded for 87 points the last two weeks. QB Cassel has been a disappointment and was benched last week vs. Denver. HC Todd Haley has not exactly won over his players. Buffalo, meanwhile, is at least playing hard for interim coach Perry Fewell. They have had three extra days to prepare for this matchup, which is huge this time of year. Although they lost that game to the Jets in Toronto, a designated "home game," they do typically play well outside of Orchard Park, covering seven of their last nine road games. The Bills have dominated this series, going 6-3 SU, 7-2 ATS, the last nine head to head meetings, including a 54-31 beatdown last year. Although he is on the downside of his career, Terrell Owens still can have big games against bad teams. Kansas City certainly qualifies. Owens had 14 catches for 293 yards and two touchdowns against subpar Jaguars and Dolphins secondaries in Weeks 11 and 12. The Chiefs best wideout, Dwayne Bowe, is suspended for this matchup. Rushing edge goes to Buffalo with Fred Jackson and Marshawn Lynch. Kansas City has covered just six of its last 21 home games. Take Buffalo.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-13-09

Spartan

DENVER BRONCOS +7

The Colts have prevailed in all 12 games this year and have just kept on finding ways to get the job done. They have been coming from behind and quietly producing an outstanding season. Not much remains to be said about Peyton Manning that has not been said a few thousand times. I will admit they have surprised me the last couple of weeks as they have kept this perfect mark intact. I am not saying for one minute that I like Denver here to go into Indy and win this outright but I feel the Broncos will fight the Colts tooth and nail and take this to the very end. Indy would sure like to win this game, Denver really needs to win this game. It will be imperative that the Broncos rush the ball well sunday and keep Mannings opportunities at the lowest amount possible. Does not take a rocket scientist to figure that out. They rushed for 245 yards last week although I admit it was against Kansas City but Denver is capable of mounting a legitimate ground game here at Indy, I do believe that guys. Also, Denver must convert down in the red zone with some touchdowns and not settle for the field goals. That simply does not help us one bit here if they cannot do that. Fact is teams really, really get up for the Colts and thus far they have managed to fend off all comers. They very well might this sunday but I expect a valiant effort by this well coached Denver squad. I predict the Colts win this thing but by less than the 7 points they are burdened with. Take Denver.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-13-09

Street Rosenthal of HandicappingTrends

*200 Green Bay Packers -4 (NFL)
*300 Dallas Cowboys -3 (NFL)
*300 Philadelphia Eagles -1 (NFL)
*500 Minnesota Vikings -6 (NFL)


*200 equals a 1 unit wager
*300 equals a 1.5 unit wager
*500 equals a 2 unit wager

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-13-09

R. Ferringo

3.5-Unit Play. Take #729 Cincinnati (+4) over Xavier (7 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 13)
Note: This is our Game of the Week.

2.5-Unit Play. Take #719 Villanova (-3) over Temple (3 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 13)


1-Unit Play. Take #723 Louisiana-Monroe (+12.5) over North Texas (4 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 13)


1-Unit Play. Take #717 Wright State (-3) over Miami, OH (3 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 13)


0.5-Unit Play. Take #743 Portland State (-1.5) over Pepperdine (4 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 13)

0.5-Unit Play. Take #745 UC-Riverside (-1.5) over Northern Arizona (6 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 13)

2-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #723 Louisiana-Monroe (+17.5) over North Texas (4 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 13) AND Take #729 Cincinnati (+9) over Xavier (7 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 13)


1-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #732 UTEP (-11.5) over New Mexico State (9 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 13) AND Take #743 Portland State (+4) over Pepperdine (5 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 13)


1-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #728 Boston College (Pk) over Rhode Island (6:45 p.m.) AND Take #729 Cincinnati (+9) over Xavier (7 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 13)


0.5-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #722 St. John’s (-16.5) over Fordham (4 p.m.) AND Take #729 Cincinnati (+9) over Xavier (7 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 13)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-13-09

C-Star Sports

5000 Units Green Bay minus the points over Chicago
1000 Units Houston Minus the points over Seattle
50 units Detroit at Baltimore under the total
50 units Denver plus the points over Indianapolis

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-13-09

Stan Sharp | NFL Side Sun, 12/13/09 - 1:00 PM ŸŠ
triple-dime bet 114 CHI 5.0 (-110) Bodog vs 113 GBP
Analysis:
Stan is Betting CHICAGO. Stan notes that the public is in love with Green Bay especially after seeing them play on Monday Night Football. Fact is this team isn't that good and this line is highly inflated. Stan says this game will go right down to the wire with Chicago pulling the Home Upset. TAKE CHICAGO as STAN'S NFL UNDERDOG SHOCKER GAME OF THE YEAR and make them a TRIPLE DIME PLAY.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-13-09

King Creole | NFL Total Sun, 12/13/09 - 1:00 PM

triple-dime bet 107 CIN / 108 MIN Under 43.0 betus
Analysis:
3*** BEST BET on: UNDER the TOTAL / Cincinnati Bengals @ Minnesota Vikings . 1:00pm ET

2** UNDER the TOTAL / Denver Broncos @ Indianapolis Colts / 1:00pm ET

2*** UNDER the TOTAL / Miami Dolphins @ Jacksonville Jaguars / 1:00pm ET

I visited our ‘Domer Homer’ set that was created in the Playbook database last night, and it revealed that all all Dome HOME FAVS had gone 3-9 O/U since November 1st. I decided to run a query since there are four indoor games on the week 14 schedule. And it looks like some “UNDER”-whelming results are in order... depending on the point spread and the opponent. 6-21-2 O/U since 1991: All Game 12 or greater Dome Home non-division favorites of 6 > points. If these Indoor HOST are taking on an opponent off a SU win, the results improve to an almost PERFECT 1-11 O/U in the last 18 years. The two teams that are active in this 92% Under Systems are the MINNESOTA VIKINGS and INDIANAPOLIS COLTS.

Game One:
In BOTH of our Best Bets, the OU line is alrea~dy coming down off the opening number. so get in ASAP! Both games also feature GREAT teams (.666 >) squaring off against each other. And that’s where we started our querying this week:

1-8 O/U L10Y (0-4 O/U THIS decade) for all GAME 13 > home favs of 4 > points with a W/L percentage of .800 > (Vikings)... facing an opponent with a W/L percentage of .666 > (Bengals).

Cincinnati comes in off BB wins, but they lost the cash (ATS) in both of em.
1-9 O/U S’2003: All road teams off BB SU wins but BB ATS losses (last vs non-div opp).

In those 2 wins, they rushed the ball an amazing 44 and 45 times respectively.
0-7 O/U last 22 years: All NFL teams off BB wins in which they rushed the ball 44 > times... when the OU line is 36 > points.

The Bengals actually come in on a 3-game ATS losing streak.
0-6 O/U L2Y: All GAME 10 > non-division dogs of 6 > pts playng off BBB ATS losses.

Minnesota’s 4-game winning streak finally came to an end of Sunday night (lost 30-17 to Arizona).
1-9 O/U L3Y: All home favs of 3 > pts playing off a SU loss which broke a 4+ game winning streak.

Vikings laid -3.5 pts on the road in that game, and LOST by double digits.
0-6 O/U L5Y: All favs of 12 < pts playing off a non-div LOSS of 13 > pts in which they were a fav of -3 > pts.

Let’s wrap up this Best Bet with a hot OU pattern that’s gone a PERFECT 0-6 O/U in the last 8 weeks:
All NFC home favs of -5 > points taking on an AFC opponent. Look for a LOT of running plays in this one. Tick.. tick.. tick!


Game Two:
This is the only other game this week that features two OUTSTANDING teams taking on each other. Since we’re on the ‘UNDER’ in the first game, it would be smart to play the other one as well.
0-4 O/U since 2000: Gm 13 > HF’s of 4 > pts with a .800 > winning % (Colts) vs an opponent with a winning % of .666 > (Broncos).

It looks like the Broncos are BACK in business, with wins of 20 and 31 points in their last 2 games. Sunday’s division win over Kansas City featured 245 rushing yards on 45 attempts. That puts them in solid “UNDER” territory.
5-18 O/U s’1988: All non-division road teams off a SU road win in which they ran for 200 > yards. If they were a FAV in that last win, the numbers improve to 2-11 O/U.

So far this year, NFL teams that ran the ball 45 or more times in a ROAD win have gone a PERFECT 0-3 O/U in their next game.

Playing in the 2nd of BB road games off a division win has produced a high percentage of low-scoring results.
1-10 O/U L6Y: All road teams playing off a SUATS divison road favorite win, when the OU lines is 48 < points.

Indianapolis enters this week’s game with their PERFECT record still intact.
0-4 O/U L10Y: All Game 13 > UNDEFEATED home teams against a non-division opponent.