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Re: 12-14-09
Lenny Del Genio
Philadelphia 76ers
Lenny Del Genio
Philadelphia 76ers
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Re: 12-14-09
VEGAS RUNNER
vegas-runner | NFL Side Mon, 12/14/09 - 8:35 PM µŠ
triple-dime bet 134 SFX 4.5 (-110) Bodog vs 133 ARI
Analysis:
*** NFL MNF 3* GAME OF THE WEEK ***
(BODOG is USING 4.5....PLEASE WAIT UNTIL CLOSER to KICK-OFF to GET the BEST NUMBER POSSIBLE...I DON'T CARE WHERE WE GRADE IT...BUT I WANT YOU TO SEE THAT 4.5 is ALREADY OUT THERE...And we've seen just this last week, how important a 1/2 point can be...VR)
2 Weeks ago, we were able to cash with the Fav (Saints)...Then last week, we took the Fav (Packers) again...Because even though there was plenty of "public money" on BOTH...I knew that the "respect" given to the line, was based on Wiseguy Money...And although I like to know what the public is up to, as a way to guage "public perception"...the bottom line is that I'm not going to allow the way they bet a game to decide what I'm going to do with it...But that's not the case with the way that I deal with "Wiseguy Money"...
I bring this up because tonight, we have a "Line-Move" that resembles last week's Packers game...And in that one, we rode with the "public" and I had no problem doing so because I felt the number was short...and the Wiseguys helped "confirm that"...
This week...the "line move" isn't based on "Wiseguy Money"...In fact, the "move" is based on "public money"...and so much "pending" wagers from Sunday, on the Favorite (Arizona)...
Because of this, we have plenty of Value by betting the 49ers...
According to this line...the bookmakers are saying that the Cards are over a TD better than SF on a neutral field...And I just don't believe that to be the case at all...
In fact, we had ARZ last week on SNF...and it was that game, which helps us out tonight as well...Because it was on a national stage, and they beat a MIN team that was bet on heavily that night by the public...This time, they are a week late with Arizona...
In closing, I always say that you can't make a living fading the betting public anymore...But with that said, there are times that going against them...when the Wiseguys aren't involved, offers us excellent value on "Prime-Time" games...And tonight, that's the main reason that we are getting so many with SF...VRComment
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Re: 12-14-09
- Vegas runner | NBA Sides Mon, 12/14/09 - 10:35 PM µŠ
double-dime bet 514 LAC -1.5 (-110) Bodog vs 513 WAS
Analysis: ‡** NBA 2* "LATE STEAM" **
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vegas-runner | NBA Sides Mon, 12/14/09 - 9:05 PM µŠ
double-dime bet 510 UTA -13.0 (-110) Bodog vs 509 MIN
Analysis: …** NBA 2* TOP "LATE STEAM" PLAY OF THE DAY**Comment
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Re: 12-14-09
Dwayne Bryant | NFL Side Mon, 12/14/09 - 8:35 PM
dime bet 134 SFX 4.5 (-110) Bookmaker.com vs 133 ARI
Analysis:
This game looks easy at first glance. We have the defending NFC Champion Cardinals laying a small number in a revenge spot against a division rival. It looks even easier when you consider each team's last game. Arizona is coming off a nationally televised 30-17 win over the previously 10-1 Vikings. They held Adrian Peterson to just 19 yards on 13 carries. The 49ers are coming off a 20-17 loss at hapless Seattle. So taking all that into consideration, it's no wonder that 64% of the bets have been on Arizona at the time of this writing. But I see this game a little differently.
Arizona owns a 3-game lead in the NFC West and they're coming off a huge win over the Vikings. Sure, they could clinch the NFC West with a win tonight, but just how motivated do you think they'll be coming off that big win and with a 3-game division lead? This game means much more to the 49ers, who basically have to win out just to have any chance at making the playoffs. The 49ers already proved they can beat Arizona, as they did just that in Week 1 at Arizona, 20-16. The 49ers were outgained in that contest, 299-203. The 49ers have a much better passing game now with QB Alex Smith playing very well (Shaun Hill played in the Week 1 meeting) and TE Vernon Davis and rookie WR Michael Crabtree having emerged as go-to receivers.
The 49ers are a perfect 6-0 ATS vs. teams with a completion percentage of 64% or better in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. They're also 6-2-1 ATS as hosts under coach Mike Singletary. Finally, the 49ers are 5-0-1 ATS in its last 6 games off a SU favorite loss, and 5-0-1 ATS off a loss against .500 or greater opponents under Mike Singletary. On the flip side, it should be noted that Arizona is 0-12 ATS as division favorites vs. an opponent off a SU favorite loss. They are also 0-4 ATS laying points on Monday night.
There is also a system supporting this play, that says to play ON home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points in a game involving two poor rushing teams (70 to 95 rushing yards per game), after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games. This system is an incredible 22-4 ATS, which is 85% winners.
Bottom line: The Cardinals have been known to play down to the level of their competition, and motivation could be low coming off a big win over Minnesota and with a 3-game division lead with only four games left. Motivation will definitely not be a problem for the 49ers, who not only have a great motivator in head coach Singletary, but they're also getting the rare chance to play at home on Monday night. I think the 49ers win this game straight up, and I don't seˆe Arizona winning by more than a field goal. I released this pick late because I knew we'd be able to get at least +4 with the public continuing to back Arizona as the day wore on. Take the points with San Francisco.Comment
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Re: 12-14-09
Dave Cokin
Oklahoma City at Denver
Play: Denver -9.5
The Nuggets struggled for a good part of their game with Phoenix the other night, but that can be excused as it was their first game back off a trip. Teams will frequently be off their game a bit in that scenario, and the fact remains Denver was still able to come back and win the game, though they missed on the number. Things should be a lot easier for the Nuggets tonight. They're in the rested homer mode with Oklahoma City losing at home to Lebron James and the Cavaliers on Sunday night. The Thunder are a rousing 7-2 ATS off a loss this season, but I'm not bothered much by that trend. On the other hand, this is only the fourth time all season that Ok City has had to play back to back, and it's the first time all year they've had to play at home and then travel for a game the next night. That's a big advantage for Denver on the scheduling dynamics, and I look for the lopsided result tonight. Give the points and back the Nuggets.Comment
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Re: 12-14-09
Stan Lisowski
4* BOSTON -7.5
Celtics have won 5 straight against the Grizzlies, while pounding them on this floor by 18, 30, and 9 points. Memphis is off of a game last night and they stand just 1-4 playing back-to-back this season. Grizz just a 34% spread proposition in their next game off of a win.Comment
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Re: 12-14-09
Alex Smart
5* MNF Throw Down (Tests 66% Run)
After coming out +$$$ in each of the L/6 weeks of the NFL season, Alex had a nightmare of a day losing badly across the board in all 4 of his positions. Still, he’s 23-12 ATS his L/25 overall NFL Positions, and vows to bookend Week 14 victories after nailing Cleveland on the Thursday nighter. Book It!!!
49ersComment
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Re: 12-14-09
Scott Rickenbach
7-0 (100%) RUN* TOP PLAY *MONDAY NT ROUT*
Scott is on a 7-0 (100%) NFL Top Play run after Sunday's *10* WIN! SDG +3.5 won OUTRIGHT 20-17 & it was 20-10 before DAL got a TD with 2 secs left! Scott's NFL Top Plays are 63-42 the last SIX SEASONS! Top Plays: Long-term SOLID success, Short-term RED HOT success! Don't miss this RARE Monday Night NFL TOP PLAY as Scott ROLLS!
ArizonaComment
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