12-17-09

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-17-09

RANDALL THE HANDLE

Colts @ Jaguars

While there is much speculation on whether the Colts will play starters for the majority of their remaining games, we are still comfortable endorsing Indianapolis in this one. Jacksonville has not be particularly good against the pass and even if Peyton Manning is sat down in second half, it will be done with a lead. Colts dominated stats in first meeting but just edged out a 14-12 win. A Manning interception in Jacksonville's end zone and RB Joseph Addai fumbling deep in Jags territory prevented a much larger disparity on the scoreboard. Jacksonville has just three home covers in past 15 as host.TAKING: Indianapolis –3

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-17-09

ATS Footbal Lock Club

3 - Colts (-3)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-17-09

seabass

100* steam play NBA Orl/Mia under


NFL
50* Colts

NCAA
50 * Troy
50* Denver

NHL
50* Mon un

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-17-09

kelso bb best bets club

5* fresno st -15
5* heat +4

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-17-09

Stan Sharp | NBA Sides Thu, 12/17/09 - 10:35 PM ‹
double-dime bet 706 POR -1.5 (-110) BetUS vs 705 PHO
Analysis: Stan is Betting PO½RTLAND. Stan notes that Portland finished a 4 game East Coast road trip on the 12th and returned home to play a 2 game home stand on the 15th before ending back out on the road for another 4 game road trip. Having won and pushed on Tuesday against Sacramento Stan expects a better effort tonight in Portland's second game back at home. Portland will want to secure a win here as their next 4 games are all tough ones on the road. They go to Orlando, Miami, Dallas & San Antonio. Portland wins by 8-10 points here. TAKE PORTLAND as STAN'S TNT WISE GUY GAME OF THE WEEK and make them a DOUBLE DIME PLAY.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-17-09

vegas runner

triple-dime bet 319 CLE / 320 KAN Over 37.0 Bodog
Analysis:

*** NFL 3* "TRUE STEAM" GAME OF THE WEEK ***



These are the kind of "Steam" Bets that I've always loved betting the most...even back when I was just a runner, because they were the ones that were concealed so well...And you really had to have some solid sources to uncover...

And that's the case again with this bet...because the line move looks so insignificant...But I can tell you that nothing could be further from the truth...

This line first went up at 36.5, and within 5 minutes...the books were willing to ta~ke it up to the "Key Number" of 37...

But what we saw as a few days past...was that the books, in anticipation of the public really liking the Under...went ahead and dropped it back to 36.5...And this time, the Wiseguys decided to work the market some...by leaving it alone...

This gave the books plenty of confidence that they would now only have to deal with the Betting Public...So in an effort to give them the "worst of it"...we saw a handful drop their lines even lower...And that's when the Wiseguys decided, it was once again time to Unload...

And with so many more "Outs" offering lines for this weekend's games...the Outfits really went to work and bet the OVER everywhere they could...

In fact, they bet it enough...that even with so much Under money expected by the public come game-day...the books were still willing to take it back to that "Key Total" of 37...Higher than their opener...

Again, these are the "moves" that very few pick up on, without having a solid source...

Fortunately for us, we have plenty of sources who are actually behind a lot of these moves...Which is why we can be sure that the Outfits love the Over...

Finally, I made sure to check the forcast...because we all know that the mention of snow will force a huge adjustment downwards...But it appears that won't be a problem on Sunday...

Don't fear seeing this line drop some on game-day, because we all know that public money outweighs wiseguy money, especially in the NFL...And since it appears that the Outfits got down as much as they wanted on this Under...the books may feel confident enough that they won't look to take another position...and therefore lower the Total, in an attempt to give the public the worst of it...

But rest assured, you and I both...are on the same side that the Betting Syndicates will be rooting for come Sunday...And with enough public money on the Under...we just may have the Books rooting in that Over for us as well...VR

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-17-09

Northcoast marquee

Colts -3

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-17-09

Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons

Magic/Heat UNDER 201

For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this matchup is on the "under":

Michael Beasley dunked home a Dwyane Wade miss to seal a victory in the waning seconds of the Heat’s visit to Orlando last month, and the Magic will look to atone for that surprising loss Thursday night when they try for their seventh win in eight trips to Miami.

The Magic appeared on their way to a 13th victory in 14 regular-season games against the Heat when Wade air-balled a jumper in the closing seconds, but Beasley grabbed it and dunked it to give Miami a controversial 99-98 win.

Rashard Lewis had his worst game of the season in the Magic’s loss to the Heat, shooting 3 of 15 and finishing with nine points.

Orlando throttled the Raptors last night; I expect an offensive "letdown" this evening though.

Dwight Howard spent the evening showing why he’s the league’s reigning Defensive Player of the Year, finishing with 14 rebounds and eight blocks.

Keep in mind the total has gone "under" the posted number in 11 of Orlando's last 16 on the road overall.

On the other side of the court: On the topic of his teams recent success: "We have to get that chip back on our shoulder," forward Udonis Haslem said. "At the start of the season, people were picking us to finish near last in the league. Then we started well and people started thinking we're better than people first thought. We might have exhaled a little bit. But that can't be us. We have to get it back."

It's interesting to note that Miami has seen the total go "under" the posted number in three of five games vs. division opponents.

Bottom line: I expect both teams to create offense through their defense; when taking all of the above into account, the sharp money is on the UNDER!

*9* UNDER.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-17-09

Ron Raymond

Magic/Heat UNDER 199

When ANY NBA Team Played as Road team as a Favorite - Before a non division game - Last 2 years - During the month of December - Coming off vs Eastern conference opponent - Coming off a 1 ATS win - Scored between 116 - 120 POINTS FOR in their last game; the UNDER is 11-4-0 for the Road Favorite (ORL) in this spot the last 2 seasons.

ATS Calculator has this total landing on 198.91 points.

Parity Value Index has the UNDER coming in at 62% on this game.

Take the UNDER.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-17-09

Mike Lineback

CHICAGO BULLS -2.5

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-17-09

Dwayne Bryant

ORLANDO MAGIC -4

Big revenge spot for the Magic, as Miami went into Orlando as a 9-point dog on 11/25 and came away with an upset win, 99-98. The Heat were +8 in rebounds and +7 in turnovers, and Orlando shot just 60.6% from the free-throw line (13 missed free throws). Rashard Lewis had his worst game of the season in the Magic’s loss to the Heat, shooting 3 of 15 and finishing with nine points. What makes that game sting even more is the fact that Orlando was embarrassed on national TV.

Miami is coming off a huge 20-point home win over Toronto, which snapped their four-game home losing streak. We had Miami in that easy win, but we also had Orlando when they lost to the Heat in that first meeting of the season. Miami had a long team meeting (about their home court woes) leading up to that Toronto game. They obviously responded. But will the same intensity be there tonight? And will Miami be able to match the intensity that revenge-minded Orlando is sure to bring? I don't think so. We know Orlando is the more talented team, but this could get ugly with them also being the more motivated team.

I say Miami's win in Orlando was the exception, not the rule. Orlando will not be outrebounded again. The Magic are 5th in the NBA in rebound margin, while Miami comes in at 19th. That edge on the glass will be a huge factor tonight. Orlando is not a great free-throw shooting team (70.7%), but I expect them to do better than 60.6% this time around.

Even with the loss in the last meeting, Orlando is still 10-3-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings, including 5-2 ATS in their last seven trips to Miami. The Heat are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of greater than .600, and 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. Payback time for Orlando. Having the better team playing with same-season revenge is a winning combo. And being able to exact that revenge on national TV (TNT) only adds to Orlando's motivation. Lay it with Orlando.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-17-09

Bob Balfe

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS +3

The Jaguars are down to their final lifeline. They will need to win out the have a shot at the playoffs. Their first test is the best NFL team in the league and the team with the best winning streak in NFL history. Taking the Jaguars seems not logical and one would ask why go against that streak? To me a game is a game and what happened yesterday or last year means nothing. It is hard to win an NFL Game. Just ask the Detroit Lions. Indianapolis coach Jim Caldwell said only healthy players would play. With that comment I do not think you will see Mathis or Freeney on defense tonight or if you do it will be a limited role. Clearly the Colts would love to finish 16-0, but all they really care about is a Super Bowl Ring. I like the Jags in this spot even if the Colts were healthy. The Jaguars have a huge defense that should slow down the Colts already bad running game. On offense the Jags are equally as big and will be going against a banged up defense. Jacksonville has played Indy well over the past few games and the Colts have not been super on the road. I have seen their flaws and great comebacks due to the great play of Payton Manning, but I have also seen the bad closing of teams they played and of course they got by with a little bit of luck. The Jaguars will be playing in front of a sellout crowd tonight. Look for the Colts streak to end or late magic by Manning will have them win at the end of the game. Could this possibly be a Colts win and Jags cover? The public is all over the Colts tonight. Take Jacksonville.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-17-09

Andre Gomes

ORLANDO MAGIC -4

We have a situational spot in this game as the Orlando Magic certainly won’t take this game lightly because they have a bad taste on their mouths after losing at home in the final second against this Heat team.

After that loss, the Magic are 8-2 and last night they had an easy game against the Raptors. The Magic easily spanked the Raptors 118-99 in which they shot 57.3% from the field and 14-30 behind the arc so we can say that the Magic are pretty confident coming for this game. Because it was an early rout, Stan Van Gundy could rest their starters for this game and Dwight Howard was the most utilized player with “only” 34 minutes.

Meanwhile the Magic finally broke their slump by spanking the Raptors at home 115-95. Note that they were 1-4 L5 games prior to that game and they already showed some problems this season to compete against top caliber teams. Against the Raptors they shot 51.7% from the field, they outrebounded the Raptors 45-32 with 12-4 in offensive boards and scored 52 points in the paint. However we must not forget that the Heat faced a “soft” opponent in Toronto and tonight we can be sure that the Magic won’t be soft against them. The Magic are the third best team in the league protecting the paint and the best team in % defensive rebounding.

In “that” game between these two teams, Dwight Howard and Rashard Lewis had sub par performances by combining to shot 6-20 from the field, for tonight look for them to have big performances and the Magic to roll past Miami completing their revenge in front of a national audience. Take the Magic in here.

Pick: 3 Units (Single Dime Play) on 703 Orlando Magic (-4)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-17-09

Spartan

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS +3

It does not happen often enough but every once in a blue moon Vegas will give you an opportunity to make a nice score and most people just will not take advantage of it. Well here it is and I am fully prepared to go with the opportunity. The public and the squares will just love getting Peyton Manning and the undefeated Colts here with such a low number. Easy pickings right? Wrong!! I've seen this movie before guys and know how it ends so this is not really fair. I think the Colts here might be the biggest sucker bet of the season. The Colts sport a perfect record, have the games best quarterback and the Jag's just lost at home to the Dolphins and Chad Henne. No way the Jags get this done, well guys, those fellas have a giant hook protruding from their lip and they are getting reeled in like a trophy Marlin. I am going Double Star Release on the home dog Jaguars plus the 3!!

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-17-09

vegasrunner | NFL Side Thu, 12/17/09 - 8:20 PM †

triple-dime bet 302 JAC 3.5 (-110) Bodog vs 301 IND
Analysis: *** NFL 3* BEST BET OF THE DAY ***
BODOG is already at +3.5...If your book still has 3, then the vig should allow you to buy the 1/2 point very cheaply...So make sure you take this up to 3.5...VR