12-22-09

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-22-09

Handicapper: Wunderdog Sports
Sport: College Basketball
Game: Marshall Thundering Herd @ North Carolina Tar Heels - Tuesday December 22, 2009 7:00 pm
Pick: 5 units TOTAL: Under 158.5 (-110)

The Tar Heels left everything on the floor last time out vs. Texas, so it is hard to see them motivated here in a game they should be able to name the score in. Three of their last four games have been vs. heavyweights, so they will mail this one in and head home for the X-Mas break with a lackluster effort. The Thundering Herd has played UNDER in five of their last six as a dog, including four straight on the road. The Heels have shown a penchant for lesser efforts producing six straight UNDERs after hanging 90+ points in their previous game. I'll go with the UNDER in this one.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-22-09

Brett Atkins Tuesday 10 Dime College Bowl Book Buster - OREGON STATE

Better conference, better players, high-powered offense and a history of delivering in the postseason. This play is definitely Oregon State tonight. QB Sean Canfield and RB Jacquizz Rodgers have crazy ability and have the Beavers averaging 32.4 points a game and 419.3 yards per contest. They have won five straight bowl games and they're 4-1 ATS. Last year they shut out Pitt and this year they're going to blow out the Cougars. Play the Beavers.



Charley Sutton TUESDAY'S PLAYS 150 Unit Oregon State
50 Unit BYU-Oregon State Over


BYU vs. Oregon State
OREGON STATE - After starting the season 0-3 ATS, Oregon State finished strong, going 7-1 ATS and 6-2 SU. Now the Beavers face a BYU team that’s gone just 2-4 ATS its last 6 games. Consider, too, Oregon State beat its opponents by about 31 points per game on the road this season (45.4-14.2). The Beavers, who are installed as about a 2 1/2 point favorite, will do it again and cruise to an easy victory tonight.



BYU-Oregon State Total
OVER - The Total for this game is hovering around 58 1/2 points and BYU and Oregon State will go well Over that number in tonight’s Las Vegas Bowl. Coming into this game BYU has gone Over the Total in 7 of its last 11 games, including 4 of its 5 games on the road. The Beavers have gone Over the Total in 2 of their last 3 games and have seen it go 4-3 their last 7 games. Scoring will come in bunches tonight as these two go well Over the Total.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-22-09

Chuck O'Brien MONDAY'S WINNERS ... 15 DIME: BYU (plus the points vs. Oregon State in the Las Vegas Bowl)

NOTE: If the best you can get is +2 1/2 with BYU, buy the half-point and grab +3, which is such a critical number in football, obviously.

10 DIME: THUNDER (plus the points vs. Lakers)


BYU

BREAKDOWN: I can’t see Oregon State being all that excited to be playing in this game. Less than three weeks ago, the Beavers were one quarter away from beating hated rival Oregon, winning the Pac-10 championship and getting a bid to the Rose Bowl for the first time since 1964. But Oregon State failed to hold a 30-21 lead on the road and their Rose Bowl dreams went down the toilet. No disrespect to the Las Vegas Bowl folks, but going from the Rose Bowl to the Las Vegas Bowl is a pretty huge come-down. … At the same time, BYU is making its fourth appearance in the Vegas Bowl, and while you think that would have the Cougars bummed, the fact is that Vegas is a home-away-from-home for BYU because of the large Mormon contingent in Sin City. Also, BYU is eager to redeem itself after last year’s Las Vegas Bowl showing (a 31-21 loss to Arizona). … The Cougars are 10-2 on the season (and one of the losses came to undefeated TCU), including 6-0 away from home (and that’s counting a 14-13 upset loss of Oklahoma in Dallas). They have a strong, balanced offense led by a four-year senior quarterback and a sneaky-good defense (only three teams scored more than 23 points against BYU), and they come into this game having won four in a row by the combined score 140-63. … Finally, one of BYU’s road wins came at Sam Boyd Stadium in Las Vegas in mid-October – a 59-21 rout of UNLV as a 16 ½-point favorite (and the Cougars outgained UNLV by 274 yards). Oregon State also played at UNLV this year, but it barely pulled out a last-second 23-21 win as a 6½-point favorite (and only outgained the Rebels by 72 yards.


Thunder

BREAKDOWN: There’s no arguing that the Lakers (22-4) are the best team in the NBA and the odds-on favorite to win another championship. But when it comes to covering pointspreads, L.A. is below average (12-14 ATS overall; 9-8 ATS at home). As for the Thunder, they’re a .500 basketball team, but they’re 15-11 ATS, including 7-5 ATS on the road and 7-3 ATS as an underdog of five points or more. But here’s the most impressive pointspread trend with respect to Oklahoma City, which is coming off Saturday’s 95-90 loss at Houston, barely coming up short as a 3½-point underdog: The Thunder haven’t gone two straight games without covering a pointspread all season long! We’re 26 games into the season and Oklahoma City has not so much as had an 0-2 ATS slump. In fact, it is 10-0 ATS when coming off a non-cover! … The Thunder are also 35-16 ATS in their last 51 games when coming off a SU loss and 4-0 AT Sin their last four after two days of rest. They’re also 11-5-2 ATS in their last 18 road games against the Lakers. On top of that, Kevin Durant and the young Thunder took the Lakers to overtime back on Nov. 3, losing 101-98 as a seven-point underdog. … L.A., which is coming off a tough five-game, eight-day road trip, cashed in its last two games at New Jersey and Detroit (two horrible teams). However, it has not had a 3-0 ATS run in 13 games (and only twice this year have the Lakers cashed in three straight contests).

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-22-09

Jay McNeil Tuesday's plays 15 Dime -- BYU basketball (minus points vs. Nevada)

BYU (BASKETBALL)

Both of these teams score about 80 points apiece, but the Cougars are a lot better defensively, allowing 58.5 ppg compared to 74.4 for the Wolf Pack, and BYU has won five straight and is coming off of a 91-34 victory over Eastern Washington, a team Nevada struggled to beat 73-70 at home. With BYU's football team playing in the Las Vegas Bowl later today, the Orleans Arena in Las Vegas (which is hosting today's game) is going to have the feel of a Cougars home game, and the Wolf Pack is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games.

5 Dime -- BYU football (plus points vs. Oregon State)

BYU (FOOTBALL)

The Beavers had their sights on the Rose Bowl just three weeks ago, but had to settle for a trip to the Las Vegas Bowl, which has to be a letdown, while the Cougars had any BCS notions dashed early in the season, making this bowl game (which they are playing in for the fifth straight year) a welcome destination, especially since a vast majority of the crowd will be backing BYU. The Cougars went 10-2 with wins over Oklahoma and Utah while playing in maybe the most underrated football conference in the country, and beat UNLV 59-21 in October, while Oregon State barely edged the Rebels 23-21, and the Cougars had the 23rd-best run defense in the nation, which should make OSU a one-dimensional team on offense tonight.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-22-09

Joel Tyson TUESDAY'S SELECTIONS 500? - Oregon State minus the points

Speed kills, and tonight BYU will find that out.

James and Quizz Rodgers will have a field day on this slow-footed BYU defense.

The Beavers have won ALL 5 bowl games under Mike Riley, and they have covered in 4 of those 5.

The Cougars are making their 5th straight appearence in the Las Vegas bowl, and they have failed in their last pair of bowl games against the Pac 10.

Oregon State will rebound from their Civl War loss, and take out some of their frustrations on the Cougars.

100? - Atlanta Hawks minus the points

Hawks started their current holiday road trip with an overtime loss at Chicago, and with a stop in Denver tomorrow night it is important the Hawks take care of business tonight against the 5-23 Timberwolves.

They will. Atlanta has won 6 in a row in this series, and 8 of the last 9, and they have also gone a lucrative 7-1-1 against the spread in those games.

Take the Hawks minus the wood.

100? - Texas A&M Aggies plus the points

Strange meeting between these schools, but with the Aggies owning a 4-1 road spread mark this season, and a 16-7 overall spread mark their last 23, I would think the points would work with the dog.

Washington is just 2-4 against the spread at home this season.

If the Huskies do manage to win this game, it won't be by the required impost.

Take A&M plus the points.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-22-09

Pete Angelo Tuesday's Winner ... 600? BYU COUGARS - Take the slim number and play the Cougars for the best value you can get. I see 2-1/2's everywhere, so be sure that's the least you're getting. If you want to put a piece on the moneyline, that's up to you. The Cougars are the de facto home team in this game, as they've played in this thing the past five seasons. They also visit Vegas often, given they play in the Mountain West Conference and play UNLV every season. Trust me when I tell you - Oregon State does not want to be here. I've had my nose to the grindstone all week, attending the bowl festivities that have taken place, and there is no excitement with this team whatsoever. The Cougars want revenge from last season's loss in this game to Arizona. They get it tonight with a huge winner.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-22-09

Handicapper: Wunderdog Sports
Sport: College Basketball
Game: Marshall Thundering Herd @ North Carolina Tar Heels - Tuesday December 22, 2009 7:00 pm
Pick: 5 units TOTAL: Under 158.5 (-110)

The Tar Heels left everything on the floor last time out vs. Texas, so it is hard to see them motivated here in a game they should be able to name the score in. Three of their last four games have been vs. heavyweights, so they will mail this one in and head home for the X-Mas break with a lackluster effort. The Thundering Herd has played UNDER in five of their last six as a dog, including four straight on the road. The Heels have shown a penchant for lesser efforts producing six straight UNDERs after hanging 90+ points in their previous game. I'll go with the UNDER in this one.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-22-09

ALEX SMART

BYU: +3.0 (-115) / 4 units

Tonight’s game will mark the 5th straight time the Cougars invade Sin City looking to pick up a bowl win. They lost a tough one to an Arizona squad 31-21 as 3-point pups a year ago. FYI: underdogs in the same bowl who lost the previous year are a bankroll bursting 29-19 ATS. BYU has held its own in this bowl series going 2-2 SU & ATS the L/4 years with wins against UCLA & Oregon. With the BYU program used to the bright lights and big city of Las Vegas after paying it a visit each of the L/4 years, distractions will be at a minimum.

I really just don’t see Oregon State being able to see this one through the whole way. If they do, which isn’t entirely out of the question, a tip of the cap will be in order for HC mike Riley who will have done a fabulous coaching job to get his kids up for this. Last we saw the Beavers, they just missed out on a chance to go to the Rose Bowl losing 37-33 as 9.5-point underdogs to Oregon in the Civil War. When teams come so close to going to a major bowl, but just miss out, you usually see a hangover effect occur. Rewind to last season where a proud Alabama team lost the 4th quarter of the SEC Championship Game to Florida and missed out on playing in the BCS championship Game because of it. They then went on to play in the Sugar Bowl against Utah and got trounced 31-17 as 9-point favorites. Lack of interest might be just the ingredient that gets some of these Beavers in trouble in the adult Disneyland otherwise known as Las Vegas.

BYU has defeated 4 of the L/6 Pac10 opponents it’s faced outright. They’ve also been a lucrative investment against P10 foes going 9-4-1 ATS the L/14 times they were installed dogs or chalks of 4-points or less. Oddsmakers expected them to be the victor in this one as they opened the Cougars up as 1.5-point choices before JQB got their hands on the line. I believe they were right, and firmly expect BYU to snap the Beavers bowl winning streak at five in a row.

Smart $$$ Sin City Bowl 4* Side Call: BYU Cougars

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-22-09

Dave Malinsky

Oklahoma City Thunder(+10) over LOS ANGELES LAKERS
4* #517 OKLAHOMA CITY over L.A. LAKERS

It is not often that the weaker team can go out and attack the superior opponent aggressively and be successful. But that is what we have here, as the young and fresh legs of the Thunder have a chance to take this one right to the final possessions. Oklahoma City does not just bring young talent; there is also a sense of purpose. With a strong chemistry and work ethic the Thunder are not easy to run out of a game, with a 15-5 ATS mark their last 20 games when taking +8.5 or more on the road. And with two full days to prepare for this double revenge affair, with the confidence of knowing that one of the earlier defeats went to O.T. and was in their hands to win outright, we get their ?A? game. That is not the case with the Lakers. Los Angeles is in a fragile setting for even this class of team. The Lakers are playing their fifth game in seven nights, and have almost no down time from that Eastern swing. Kobe Bryant is most aware of the difficulties it brings - "That first game back is always the toughest, probably because of all the travel and your body still getting acclimated to the time zone. You're trying to get back into a routine, and get a handle on all the stuff that goes on when you're home.? That, of course, is magnified even more when Christmas is two days away, especially with that nationally-televised showdown vs. the Cavaliers creating an additional look-ahead on that very day. And Phil Jackson recognizes what the tough schedule grind can also mean in teams of performance - "I thought things sort of eroded a bit for us in certain areas (on the road trip), and that happens when you don't have the practice time and you don't put the proper amount of time in to get your timing and rhythm down." The Lakers are only interested in getting a ?W? here and moving on, with a margin of no interest. Not that they could get it anyway. This one is close to the final buzzer.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-22-09

Seabass CFB: 50 BYU

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-22-09

vegas runner

double-dime bet 513 LAC / 514 HOU OVER 194.0 Bodog
Analysis:
*** TOP 2* NBA "PERSONAL PLAY OF THE DAY ***

(Possible Upgrade at "Final Update"...Please Check Back by 6:30pm est)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-22-09

Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons

VANCOUVER CANUCKS -150

For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this matchup is on the home side:

Nashville has been playing great lately, but will be in tough today against a "revenge minded" Canucks team.

Roberto Luongo has a 3.54 goals-against average in losing his last two starts against Nashville.

Nashville may be 6-1 its last seven overall, but its just 2-6 its last eight vs. Vancouver and is a horrible 4-11-1 its last 16 at GM Place.

On the other side of the rink: After posting their biggest victory of the season on Friday by shutting down Washington superstar Alexander Ovechkin and rallying from a first-period deficit, the Canucks played a poor second period en route to a 3-1 loss to St. Louis Sunday, a team that was at the bottom of the Western Conference standings. Vancouver had a chance to move up into a playoff position for the first time all season, but once again failed to walk the talk; expect a "bounce-back" this evening.

Vancouver is 4-2 its last six and always plays tough in front of the hometown crowd; 14-5 its last 19 at home.

Bottom line: The Canucks will look to end their extended home stretch with a concerted effort; look for VANCOUVER to move to 7-4 (+1.7 units) after a loss by two goals or more in their previous game this season and for Nashville to fall to 2-2 when playing with two days of rest.

*7* VANCOUVER.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-22-09

Tony George

OREGON STATE -2.5

Short and Sweet. Oregon State was a game away from a BCS Bowl game and a PAC 10 championship and lost to rival Oregon. While both QBs will provide some fireworks here, I like a more motivated team in this one. While many say OSU comes in here with their head down, I am not buying that from Mike Riley’s team. They have a stud QB, they rarely turn the ball over, can score 35 ppg with ease and BYU lost to 1 good team they played TCU who blew them out and also another BCS school Florida State who sucks blew them out in Provo. Paper tiger, OSU a solid team who beat Cal and Stanford and is battle tested. Overall team depth and speed favor OSU. A good game, but I go against the popular choice in BYU here and play the better team laying less than a FG.

Play 1 Unit on Oregon State.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-22-09

Evan Altemus

PHILADELPHIA 76ERS +2

Allen Iverson was a horrible addition to the 76ers, as they were a much better team without him. He was only brought in to sell tickets, and they are playing much better in the two games without him in the line-up. Philadelphia should be able to play well tonight, as Iverson is expected to miss this game as well. The main reason for this selection is the absolutely horrible spot for Washington. They are coming off of a very tiring road trip, and now they have to play one home game before going back out onto the road. In addition, the Wizards are banged up, which makes this spot even worse. Finally, it is very close to Christmas, so the players are probably more focused on taking care of other teams than playing a game against lowly Philadelphia. Washington hasn’t played well at home either this season. Sharp bettors are absolutely hammering this season, so make sure to shop around and get the best line available. I feel that it is still a top play up as long as the 76ers don’t become a favorite.

4 UNIT SELECTION 76ERS

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-22-09

Ron Raymond

BYU/Oregon State UNDER 58

When ANY NCAAF Team played as Road team as a Underdog - After a conference game - Last 2 years - Vs Non Division Opponent - Coming off 1 under - Coming off a game scored 24 points or more; the UNDER is 13-6-0 for the Road Dog (BYU) in this role. Take the UNDER.