12-22-09

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-22-09

Greg Shaker

CENTRAL MICHIGAN +7.5

It was only a few days ago that my Large Play on Bowling Green came through with flying colors verses this Titans team and we have pretty much the same situation going tonight as well. Oddsmakers are being over confident about what Detroit is and what they can do. The Scout line opened for this one at -9 and has quickly moved downward to it's present level. How do we back at 1-5 road squad tonight. We do because the likelihood is that this game will be a nailbiter and a possible outright by the visitors. There is no doubt that Detroit is a strong home squad and that this gym lends itself to that. It is just simply a tough place to win games. However, this series has been a visitors dream and the travelers have won outright the last 4 of 5 times. While the Chips do not shoot as well as Detroit, they do play better D, they do make more of their Free Throws, and they do have a stronger bench. The Titans struggled down the stretch hosting BG because they can't close that well and they should be in the same boat tonight. Road contests at Purdue and at Wright State prepares this Chips team for this one. We should see them control the 2nd half and that is where games are won. Just too many points here....again. Take Central Michigan.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-22-09

Dwayne Bryant

MISSOURI ST pick 'em

The oddsmakers really messed up here. I use two sets of power ratings, and both sets have Missouri State as the stronger team with AT LEAST 165 teams between them! Arkansas has already lost to Louisville by 30 on a neutral court, and to Oklahoma by 20 on the road. And both sets of power ratings have this Missouri State club rated higher than UL and OU. Arkansas already owns home losses to the likes of Morgan State, East Tennessee State, and South Alabama -- all ranked WELL BELOW Missouri State. The Razorbacks do have a four-game winning streak, but they've been beating up on teams that, according to my rankings, are rated from 231st to 342nd out of 347 Division 1 teams.

This undefeated Missouri State team already owns an eight-point win over Tulsa, who my two sets of rankings have as the 19th and 23rd best team in Division 1. They're coming off a ten-point road win at St. Louis, which is a team I have ranked over 100 spots better than Arkansas. Missouri State has a slight height advantage and has proved to be the better rebounding team so far this season. They also are a MUCH better free-throw shooting team, hitting 73.8% compared to just 64.8% for Arkansas. Missouri State's adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency rankings are 49th and 62nd, respectively. That is much better than Arkansas, which ranks 158th and 256th in those key categories.

Bottom line: I've sliced and diced this game every which way, and I come up with a 10 to 14-point win for Missouri State. Getting them at a pick'em is a gift. Take Missouri State.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-22-09

Bob Balfe

OHIO U +10

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-22-09

Rocketman

UCLA -9

UCLA is 15-5 ATS since 1997 at home when the total is between 130 and 134 1/2. Rams are 19-41 ATS in their last 60 games following a ATS loss. Rams are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 Tuesday games. Rams are 1-4-2 ATS in their last 7 road games following three or more consecutive home games. Bruins are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 Tuesday games. Bruins are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as a home favorite of 7.0-12.5. Bruins are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5. Bruins are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. We'll play UCLA for 3 units tonight! Thanks and good luck, Rocky.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-22-09

Spartan

TEXAS -8

I stated on the pod cast with Dan Bebe and Mike Hook last friday that I was looking forward to the big game saturday featuring Texas and North Carolina because the Longhorns are literally loaded this year and they did not let me down as they outclassed a very strong Tar Heels team. Now the Michigan State Spartans come calling in Austin to see how they match up with Texas. Frankly I expect similar results to this last weekend and quite possible a lot worse for the visitors. The Horns put up 103 on North Carolina and that was in the Cowboys monster stadium where the shooting was not the same as home with sight lines and such, that might not seem like much but it can affect teams. Now they are home and I just feel they totally outclass this Spartans club. This Texas team Rick Barnes has constructed has prevailed in every game this year to date by double figures and I absolutely do not expect that to change here tonight. They can score, they can all fill the net as was clearly in play against North Carolina as fours players scored 20+ points. I respect Tom Izzo a great deal but he is going to be in the wrong place at the wrong time here tonight. Triple Star Release on Texas -8 guys!

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-22-09

Lenny Del Genio

NEW YORK KNICKS -6

It's very rare that we make a play on the Knicks. However, it's even rarer to find an NBA team that blew a 35 POINT LEAD the previous night. Last week, we asked "when Vinny Del Negro was going to be fired?" The answer now appears to be "very soon" after his Bulls pulled a gag job of epic proportions last night vs. the Kings. It was the biggest lead surrendered by any NBA team since a November '96 loss by Denver when they led the Jazz by 36 at halftime. Chicago was outscored 33-10 in the fourth quarter by Sacramento and turned the ball over seven times. They are playing with a seven-man rotation. This is a terrible road team, losing 10 of 12 overall away from the United Center. They have lost seven straight road games with five of them coming by 14 points or greater. After starting the season 1-9, New York has won 9 of its last 17, beating many opponents better than this, and they've held seven straight opponents to 100 points or less. Chicago has not scored more than 101 points all season, doing it only three times this year. New York is our 20* NBA Situational Game of the Month.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-22-09

C-Star Sports

5000 Units Eastern Michigan Minus the points over Samford
5000 Units BYU/Oregon State OVER THE TOTAL
1000 Units Tenn-Martin/Florida St. over the total
50 units BYU Plus the points over Oregon State

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-22-09

Tim Trushel

Reg - Oregon State

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-22-09

Street Rosenthal of HandicappingTrends
*200 Philadelphia 76ers +2 (NBA)
*200 Chicago Bulls Over 201 (NBA)
*200 Golden State Warriors +7.5 (NBA)
*200 Oregon State -2.5 (NCAAF)


Trey Scott of HandicappingTrends
*200 Texas -9 (CBB)
*200 Central Michigan +8 (CBB)
*300 Air Force -3 (CBB)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-22-09

KELSO

byu 5 units
under 5 units

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-22-09

ats hoops

4 uab
4 tex teck
3 wash st.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-22-09

Dave Malinsky

6* coll hoops North Carolina -13

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-22-09

Joyce Sterling

10 Star Byu +2.5 Bowl Game

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-22-09

Freddy Willis

*4.5 Dime NCAAF POD: Oregon State -2.5

This will be a gold members club play and a NCAAF POD. A rare 4.5 Dime play where I have been cashing all season long!

My initial thought on the game was PAC-10 over MWC, but it's never that easy as BYU has played well in this bowl game. After looking at the match up further it was confirmed that I will be going with Oregon State here. There is just too much talent on the field for Oregon State with the Rodgers brothers and lefty QB Sean Canfield may surprise some as being the better QB on the field as he has completed more than 70% of his passes which is quite impressive. James Rodgers will take back kicks and punts and give Oregon State great field position all day long. I really like what I saw from Oregon State in the Civil War game. I was on Oregon in that game but the Beavers played a great game and I'm not worried about a let down. Ya this team lost that game and won't go to the Rose Bowl, but this is an opportunity to be recognized next year as a Top 25 team in the pre season polls as they will return 18 of their 22 starters. Oregon State also has a considerable advantage in the field goal game as Justin Kahut is 22 of 27 and 15 of 16 from inside 47 yards while Mitch Payne does not kick many and is just 9 for 13 on the year. Oregon State takes a 5 game winning streak in bowl games into this game and under Mike Riley they are 5-1 straight up and 4-2 ATS. Oregon State is more battle tested and although they will have periods of struggle in their pass defense they will rebound with the balanced offense that BYU won't be able to stop.

BYU's QB Max Hall is one of the better QB's to come through the University. However, in his three year starting career he has just 13 games where he did not throw an interception. He often forces the ball and tries to make too much happen. Sometimes that is a good thing and it's worked well for him against inferior defenses and opponents. However, against a PAC-10 talent like Oregon State that played significantly better down the stretch against the pass, I don't see him having one of those games. Yes, he'll have time as Oregon State had just 15 sacks in the regular season, but in the end BYU won't get the stops on defense. Against the two strong opponents this year Florida State and TCU they lost by a combined score of 92-35. While I'm not calling for a blow out I really can see Oregon State putting up 40 points on this defense. They are very similar to Florida States offensive ranks that featured a strong passing game and mid running game. Florida State put up 54 points on BYU and they are significantly worse defensively than Oregon State. Overall BYU has had a weaker schedule and has played 5 defenses that ranked outside the Top 100 of 120 in FBS total defense ranks. Oregon State on the other hand faced only two. I just do not believe BYU will have the answers on defense or special teams to stop Oregon State. In the end if you watch this game you will remember Quizz Rodgers and James Rodgers as potential Heisman Trophy candidates next year and Sean Canfield as an under rated Sr. who can play at the next level if given a chance.

Finally BYU 3-7 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games, and Oregon State 5-2 ATS in their last 7 vs. the MWC. Why this line may look to good to be true? Well BYU had periods of good play against Oklahoma and they did crush UNLV while Oregon State just got by 23-21. Well Oklahoma seems like years ago and that was when Sam Bradford was injured. Bottom line the weakness of Oregon State is the pass defense, but they have improved throughout the season and I believe Mike Riley will have his team ready in this one.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-22-09

vegas runner
520 Texas -9.0 (-110) Sportbet vs 519 Michigan St.
Analysis: …** NCAABB 2* LATE STEAM **