12-24-09

[Mr. IWS]

NEW GUYS! LURKERS!

Dont be afraid to post services if you come across them. Your posts will be appreciated for sure.

Just put them in the appropriate section (regular or premium)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-24-09

ATS LOCK CLUB AND TOTALS

3 units on SMU +12.5
3 OVER 72 SMU/Nevada

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-24-09

ALEX SMART

Today’s Free Pick
GAME: Mustangs @ Nevada Dec 24, 2009 8:00PM
SPORT: College Football Picks
PICK: over
Offered at: 72.5 WSEX
REASON FOR PICK: Two teams that are heading in opposite directions for their football gambling fans wrap up their 2009 NCAA football betting season at the Hawaii Bowl, when the SMU Mustangs (7-5, 6-5 ATS) tango with the Nevada Wolfpack (8-4, 7-5 ATS).

Freshman QB Kyle Padron has taken over the reins of the SMU offense and has done quite well in his five starts. He has completed 64.4% of his passes for 1,462 yards and eight TDs against four picks in HC June Jones' wild pass happy offense. However, unlike when he was at Hawaii, Jones has implemented a rushing attack as well at Southern Methodist. The Mustangs are led on the ground by RB Shawnbrey McNeal, who rushed for 1,122 yards and nine scores this year. Nevada ranks 119th in the country against the pass though, which could lead to a huge day for the SMU offense.

Nevada's offensive successes have been well-documented this season. The team ranks #2 in the land in total 'O' at 522.2 yards per game and is by far the most potent rushing attack that the country has to offer at 362.8 yards per game. QB Colin Kaepernick will be wrapping up his third season as the starting signal caller for the Wolfpack. He has rushed for 1,160 yards and 16 scores on the season. Kaepernick is one of three rushers to accumulate at least 1,000 yards on the ground, but neither RB Vai Taua (1,345 yards) or RB Luke Lippincott (1,034 yards) will be active for the Hawaii Bowl. However, with SMU's defense ranking just 92nd overall, it may not matter who is the back behind Kaepernick in the pistol offense. Success may be inevitable.

The Hawaii Bowl has perennially been one of the highest scoring match-ups of the entire bowl season. There’s just something about the islands that brings out the best and worst of the participants respective offenses and defenses. Even though Nevada will be without a pair of major components to the offense, I believe their scheme, rather than the players themselves, will allow the offense to succeed. SMU’s “D” won’t strike fear into Kaepernick and company. As for SMU, it should really be able to flex its muscles offensively as it throws a balanced attack at HC Ault’s kids. In a game that should be wildly entertaining, look for the Mustangs and Wolf Pack to play in another high scorer at Aloha Stadium.

Play On: SMU/Nevada Over

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-24-09

Seabass 50* nevada.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-24-09

Anthony Redd

10 dime SMU

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-24-09

Great Lakes Sports

4* SMU

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-24-09

The Booooj

15 units on SMU (+12)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-24-09

Stephen Nover

Thursday's Play
100 Dime - Smu-Nevada UNDER the Total



The oddsmaker has set a huge total on this SMU-Nevada Hawaii Bowl matchup taking into account both team's high-scoring offenses and lack of defense.



But the oddsmaker is ignoring the reality of the situation. The Mustangs and Wolf Pack are not going to reach this monster number.



Nevada leads the nation in rushing. The Wolf Pack set an NCAA record with three 1,000-yard rushers this season. But two of these players, Luke Lippincott and Vai Taua, aren't going to play. Lippincott is out with a toe injury, while Taua was ruled academically ineligible for the bowl game.



Their replacements are sophomore Lampford Mark and freshman Mike Ball. They have a combined 44 carries between them.



Nevada runs a finely-tuned Pistol Offense. But the Wolf Pack last played nearly a month ago. Their offense is going to be out of sync. Nevada has lost its bowl game each of the past three years, averaging just 18.3 points.



SMU coach June Jones is familiar with Nevada's Pistol Offense having coached at Hawaii from 1999-2007. Nevada and Hawaii are Western Athletic Conference schools.



The Mustangs averaged 27.9 points and 380 yards per game. Those marks are good, but not great ranking them 55th and 61st, respectively. Nevada's pass defense ranked 119th out of 120 FBS teams, giving up 284.3 yards per game.



So you can see why the oddsmaker has set such a high total.



But SMU's offensive rhythm is going to be off, too, since it last played two days after Thanksgiving.



The Mustangs averaged 25.4 points in their last five games. Nevada also has been playing better defense. If you discount the 44 points powerful Boise State scored on Nevada, the Wolf Pack have given up an average of 15.5 points in its last four games.



Nevada is a running team of course. SMU has become more balanced. A lot of running keeps the clock moving. That's important with

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-24-09

Steve Duemig
Thursday's Winner
30 Dime - Southern Methodist

In this game we have the highest point spread differential between these two teams than in any other bowl game. Wierd line movement as well in this one. It opened at 12.5 and went all the way up to 14.5-15 in some spots. That was before it became known that the Wolfpack's other 100 rusher Vai Taua was declared academically ineligible for this game. Previously, Luke Lippincott, also a 1000 yard rusher has a toe injury and will miss the game. That's a pretty damn big chunk of the nation's leading rushing attack. Now the line is right back where it started from. June Jones is the coach of SMU and has them back into a bowl for the first time since the NCAA declared the death penalty on them back in the days of Craig James. The Wolfpack's weakest element of their team is that they are DEAD LAST in the NCAA in pass defense. Yep, the dreaded 119th!! That's how many D-1 schools there are!! When Jones was with Hawaii we all know how prolific his passing game was and it's not quite Hawaii standards, but the definitely pass more than they run, and by a solid margin.

We also can draw from the fact that Jones is very familiar with "The Pistol" offense employed by Nevada and as a matter of fact, he has never lost to Nevada (4-0). The Wolfpack has not had a lot of success in bowl games recently going 0-3 and we all know what their ATS record is away from Reno. If you don't know, suffice it to say that 'Taint good. Under dog trend still doing well over recent years, especially getting more than a TD.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-24-09

Northcoast Power Sweep- 2* on SMU

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-24-09

GoodFella | CFB Side Thu, 12/24/09 - 8:00 PM ÍŠ

dime bet 211 SMU 12.5 (-110) Bodog vs 212 Nevada
Analysis:
June Jones makes his return to a place he coached and had a lot of success at for years- when to his XMU Mustangs take on the Nevada Wolfpack in the Hawaii Bowl on Christmas Eve Thursday Night. June Jones has raised this SMU program from the dead- a this is their 1st Bowl Game in over 20 years and I fully expect this SMU ballclub to follow the lead of Head Coach June and be very motivated for their 1st Bowl Game in over two decades. Nevada has lost their Top Two RB's for this game tonight- with RB Luke Lippincott out with a toe injury and RB Vai Taua ruled academically ineligible. This is definitely a key factor, and SMU has had issues stopping the opposition running the ball. SMU does bring a very solid passing game, as they rank 28th in the country & are led by Freshman QB Kyle Padron, as he has really exceled in Coach Jones spread offense. Padron has led SMU to 4 wins in 5 of his starts- and I really think SMU should have no problem moving the ball vs this Nevada "D" tonight, as they rank 119th vs the pass this season. SMU is led on the ground by RB Shawnbrey McNeal, who rushed for 1,122 yards and nine scores this year. Now, Nevada will clearly put up points tonight as well- as they rank 2nd in the country in total yds per game at 522 ypg- but with BOTH of their STUD RB's out for this game- that is clearly a setback for the offense. SMU ranks just 92nd against the run- so Nevada still have some success on the ground- especially Nevada QB Colin Kaepernick, as he has rushed for 1,160 yards and 16 scores on the season. I expect both teams to move the ball with success & I‚ look for a high scoring ballgame, with both teams counter-punching each other with scoring drives. Bottomline for me here- I really see some good value with SMU getting this many points in this spot on Thursday Night- & I expect them to be a one score game- so the double digits we're getting with SMU should be enough for us to cash out ticket on SMU. Grab the points with SMU tonight fellas!

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-24-09

Dave Malinsky

Bowling for Dollars - SMU/Nevada
Southern Methodist Mustangs (+11.5) over NEVADA WOLF PACK

4* #211 S.M.U. over NEVADA

Our penchant for taking double-figure underdogs in these bowl games will absolutely have us in play here, and we will provide more details on Sunday afternoon. But we would go to market now, while the full +14?s are still out there. For Nevada to lose either Vai Taua or Luke Lippincott would not be that big of a deal, because either could seamlessly replace the other. But to lose both is a major blow ? the combined for 2,379 yards and 19 rushing TD?s on 306 attempts, and 22 receptions for four more scores, and because of that workload there is precious little experience behind them, with Lampford Mark next in line at only 44 carries. They lose both leadership and talent here, and while they will still play hard to win the game, the odds of getting a margin have been greatly diminished. Now the rest of the story. While there always the knee jerk reaction to believe that S.M.U. earned this spot because the Mustangs adapted to the June Jones passing playbook in the second season under the system, the truth was a bit different. While they were more effective in the air, with Kyle Padron stepping in well at QB after Bo Levi Mitchell was injured, the real keys were major improvements in the ground game (nearly three times as many yards per game as LY), and on defense (they allowed nine fewer points and 76 fewer yards). They are not a ?One Trick Pony? for this matchup, but rather a team that is not overmatched in any particular area with those key Nevada losses at the RB position. We usually do not get to take this many points when that is the case, and the chance for Jones to work with Padron in what is like having August raining camp all over again, more wrinkles can be added to the offensive huddle, which means a chance to exploit a slow Wolfpack secondary that finished 114th in Pass Efficiency, and 119th in passing yards allowed. An underdog that can make plays through the air with consistency will rarely be out of a game, and it also keeps the back-door open should that path be needed.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-24-09

Sports Wagers

Sheraton Hawaii Bowl - Aloha Stadium, Honolulu, HI

S. Methodist U +12½ over Nevada Sports Interaction

The Wolfpack put up some pretty sick offensive numbers but its weak schedule contributed significantly to that. They also play in the extremely weak WAC and that, too, contributed to its skewed stats. Don’t get me wrong, Nevada does have some talented players at the skilled positions but they’re not as good as their numbers suggest. In fact, a close look reveals that the Wolfpack played two teams all year that at the time of the game were ranked and lost them both. They opened the year against the then ranked Irish (that ranking is a distant memory) and were buried 35-0. They proceeded to lose the next two before going on a eight-game winning streak and subsequently lost its last game of the year, 44-33 to #6 Boise St. In between all that they had some unimpressive wins at best and that includes a three-point win over Utah St and a very disturbing loss to the 3-9 Colorado St. Rams. Now they’re asked to spot 12½ points to a Mustang team that went 7-5 and were pretty much in every game they played with the exception of games against Nationally ranked TCU and Houston. Also note that June Jones coaches SMU and he coached Hawaii for years before moving onto SMU. The point is he knows this place well and he knows what it takes to win here. For a bunch of young college kids, traveling and playing in Hawaii is a dream come true and minds can wander, as there are a ton of distractions at this exotic location. That’s where Jones’ experience and knowledge of playing here will be huge and not only can SMU stay well within this range, they can win outright. Play: Southern Methodist +12½ (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-24-09

Dwayne Bryant 12/24

SMU coach June Jones returns to his old stomping grounds, as he spent nine seasons in charge of the Hawaii program. Now Jones brings his Mustangs to the island for the program's first bowl appearance in 22 years. Motivation will definitely NOT be a problem for SMU. SMU has had problems stopping the run this season, which should mean much trouble against Nevada's vaunted rushing attack. But Nevada has lost two-thirds of that three-headed monster, with RB Luke Lippincott out with a toe injury and RB Vai Taua ruled academically ineligible.

On the flip side, Nevada has the second-worst pass defense in the nation, which will be a problem in this one. SMU brings the nation's 29th best passing attack into this ballgame. Freshman QB Kyle Padron has really excelled in Jones' spread offense, winning four of his five starts while tossing 64.4% completions for 1,462 yards and 8 TDs with only 4 INTs. It should also be noted that Nevada defensive coordinator Nigel Burton resigned to become the head coach at Portland State. That leaves linebackers coach Ken Wilson to run the defense for the first time in this one.

Bottom line: Nevada is missing two-thirds of their rushing attack, and their defensive coordinator has "left the building." That should be more than enough issues to keep SMU in this game until the very end. Jones will have his troops ready to play on his former home field.Grab the points with SMU.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-24-09

SEAN HIGGS - GTSA

5* BEST BET
Nevada gets the call here in Hawaii. Yeah, it's a nice story with SMU HC June Jones coming back to Hawaii. But unfortunately he isn't hear with his old Rainbows team. The Mustangs now have a freshman QB, Kyle Padron, running the show since taking over 5 games ago for the injured Bo Levi Mitchell. Though SMU improved from 1-11 last year to a respectable 7-5 this season, they will face a stiff challenge from Nevada. The Wolfpack led the nation in rushing coming in at 362 yards per game. Nevada has 3 1,000 rushers, but RB Luke Lippincot will miss the game because of injury and Vai Taua is ineligible. They still have QB Colin Kaepernick leading the offense. CK passesd for nearly 2000 yards, while running for almost 2000 more. He also accounted for 35 TDs. That can be a problem for SMU who ranked 88th in the country giving up about 170 yard per game on the ground. Nevada is at its offensive best against average defensive teams. They put up 63 on UNLV, 70 on Idaho, 62 at San Jose State and New Mexico State and 52 on bowl bound Fresno. This is exactly the type of team that Nevada blasts during the regular season. After a slow 0-3 start the Wolfpack ran off 8 in a row before bowing to Boise 44-33.