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Re: 12-24-09
Northcoast
marquee single play
over 72.5 smu/nevada
Northcoast
marquee single play
over 72.5 smu/nevada
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Re: 12-24-09
STEPHEN NOVER
Thursday's Play
100 Dime - Smu-Nevada UNDER the Total
The oddsmaker has set a huge total on this SMU-Nevada Hawaii Bowl matchup taking into account both team's high-scoring offenses and lack of defense.
But the oddsmaker is ignoring the reality of the situation. The Mustangs and Wolf Pack are not going to reach this monster number.
Nevada leads the nation in rushing. The Wolf Pack set an NCAA record with three 1,000-yard rushers this season. But two of these players, Luke Lippincott and Vai Taua, aren't going to play. Lippincott is out with a toe injury, while Taua was ruled academically ineligible for the bowl game.
Their replacements are sophomore Lampford Mark and freshman Mike Ball. They have a combined 44 carries between them.
Nevada runs a finely-tuned Pistol Offense. But the Wolf Pack last played nearly a month ago. Their offense is going to be out of sync. Nevada has lost its bowl game each of the past three years, averaging just 18.3 points.
SMU coach June Jones is familiar with Nevada's Pistol Offense having coached at Hawaii from 1999-2007. Nevada and Hawaii are Western Athletic Conference schools.
The Mustangs averaged 27.9 points and 380 yards per game. Those marks are good, but not great ranking them 55th and 61st, respectively. Nevada's pass defense ranked 119th out of 120 FBS teams, giving up 284.3 yards per game.
So you can see why the oddsmaker has set such a high total.
But SMU's offensive rhythm is going to be off, too, since it last played two days after Thanksgiving.
The Mustangs averaged 25.4 points in their last five games. Nevada also has been playing better defense. If you discount the 44 points powerful Boise State scored on Nevada, the Wolf Pack have given up an average of 15.5 points in its last four games.
Nevada is a running team of course. SMU has become more balanced. A lot of running keeps the clock moving. That's important withComment
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Re: 12-24-09
FREDDY WILLS POD
SMU +13 3.3 DIME PLAY + .7DIMES ON SMU +360
Well some of you may be surprised, but taking under dogs has never scared me. Hope you all have a great holiday and with not much else going on here on the eve of Christmas the Hawaii Bowl should be on everyone's TV. Tonight SMU has all the motivational advantage against the WAC team.
First of all we can talk this match up comes down to two things. SMU's suspect run defense vs. Nevada's #1 running game, and Nevada's suspect #119 pass defense vs. SMU's #28 passing attack. Well along with those two things I also like SMU to have a bit of a motivational and emotional advantage which is more of a big deal than you realize. Nevada may come out a little flat because of the crushing loss to Boise in the WAC title game. They made that game closer than it really was at 44-33. Now SMU comes in without the nerves as they haven't been to a bowl game in 25 years, but enter June Jones the former Hawaii coach and in his second year this team is going bowling and ironically back to the place where June Jones used to play Nevada, Hawaii. I just believe SMU is going to come out wiht an intensity like no other in this game. While their rank says they are #100 in rushing game since Kyle Padron took over at QB it has really opened up the game and they do feature a 100 yard rusher in Shawnbrey McNeal.
Why can SMU stop the run? Well they really can't let's be honest here Nevada is going to runt he ball 90% of the time and are #1 in rush defense, but if they can make some opportunistic stops they will be right in the thick of things and that is what this defense has done all year. This rush defense is a little better than many are giving them credit for they are ranked #88 but faced a 61 rushing attack while Nevada #1 in rush offense has only faced an average 87th ranked opponent. Okay so there is one team that SMU played that can be compared to this game and that was Navy. Now Navy #4 in rushing the ball has a better defense than what Nevada has and in that game SMU lost in OT 35-38. Also note that Nevada's three headed monster rushing attack featuring three 1,000 rushers is going to be without one in monster Lippincott who is out for this game. The key for SMU is get their passing game going against Nevada and get out to a lead which shouldn't be a problem considering....
Nevada has not fared well against talented passing games and with Padron going to Sanders the all time SMU leading receiver it will mean trouble for Nevada. Emmanuel Sanders has 91 receptions 1,215 yards receiveing both records at SMU. He has speed to burn and get pick you apart when he goes deep or when he catches slant routes and gets yard after the catch. Remember June Jones knows Nevada as he is 4-0 against them in Honolulu. Also worth noting is that Nevada's defensive coordinator has left the program to take the coaching job at Portland State. This leaves Nevada in even more trouble in my opinion. Let's just go over the numbers here. Against Top 35 passing attacks which SMU falls under, Nevada game up 34.66 points per game and were 3-3. Only one game would have covered the spread they have here. SMU arguably has better defenses than Notre Dame (L0-35), Utah State (W35-32), Idaho (W70-45), Hawaii (31-21). This game should be extremely interesting and a shoot out in the end I think SMU will have a good shot at winning this game outright. Or worse case a back door passing TDs gets the cover.Comment
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Re: 12-24-09
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
SMU/Nevada UNDER 72.5
For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this game is on the "under":
SMU coach June Jones feels right at home in the Lone Star State; the matchup with Western Athletic Conference runner-up Nevada is SMU’s first bowl game in 25 years.
“We’re excited to play Nevada,” Jones said. “Having played Nevada many times while I was at Hawaii, I have a great deal of respect for Coach (Chris) Ault and his program. Their rushing attack will pose a stiff challenge, but we’re really looking forward to the game.”
Jones returns to Hawaii, where he rebuilt the Warriors’ program in much the same way he has gone about resurrecting the SMU program, which went 1-11 last year in Jones’ first season.
SMU is 28th nationally in passing at 267.2 yards per game, but the biggest improvement has come in the ground game. SMU has run for 96 yards or more in each of the past four games. Also, ball control has helped the Mustangs win the time-of-possession battle, keeping their thin defense on the sideline.
Keep in mind that SMU has seen the total go "under" the posted number in two of three games this year as an underdog of 10 1/2 to 21 points this season, and in three of four when playing against a team with a winning record.
On the other side of the field: The Wolf Pack is the first team in NCAA history to have three 1,000-yard rushers in the same season.
QB Colin Kaepernick and running backs Vai Taua and Luke Lippincott all eclipsed the mark before the regular-season finale against Boise State.
Interesting though that Nevada was held to 242 rushing yards by the Broncos, the Wolf Pack’s lowest rushing total since the third game of the season, a loss to Missouri; I expect a similar letdown in this one as Nevada seems to have difficulties in "big games".
Also important; the trio will be a twosome against SMU, as Lippincott will miss the game with a toe injury.
Nevada has history against it; the Wolf Pack has lost its last three bowl games, and current SMU coach Jones is 4-0 against the Wolf Pack in Honolulu, a stat that dates back to his days as Hawaii’s head coach.
Surprisingly, Nevada has seen the total go "under" the posted number in three of four non-conference games this season.
Bottom line: SMU must ratchet up the intensity and physical nature of its defensive front and linebackers to contain the Wolf Pack’s ground attack.
With the extended time off, I look for both teams offenses to come out "sluggishly" to begin this game and believe that will ultimately be the difference in this one; when taking into account all of the above factors, along with this large number, the sharp money is on the UNDER!
*9* UNDER.Comment
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Re: 12-24-09
Evan Altemus
SMU +12.5
There are a variety of reasons for this selection, but the biggest reason is Nevada’s shaky defense. They have given up an average of 400 yards this season, including close to 300 yards to opposing passing attacks. June Jones spread offense should have no problem moving the ball against this porous Wolfpack defense. Next, motivation will clearly be on the side of SMU in this game. It has been several years since the Mustangs have reached a bowl, so they will be motivated for this game. Meanwhile, Nevada is back playing in an average bowl against a no name opponent. The Wolfpack have not done well in bowls over the last few years anyway. Nevada will also have a hard time in this game considering that they will be without two of their best running backs. Vai Taua is academically ineligible and Luke Lippencott is out with a toe injury. Those two running backs account for about 2/3 of the Nevada offense, as the Wolfpack rarely throws the ball. One final reason supporting this selection is that June Jones played against Nevada every year when at Hawaii, so he is very knowledgeable on how to defend the pistol offense. He played them very tough when at Hawaii, and I expect his experience against them to have an impact on this game as well. Look for SMU to challenge for the outright win.
3 UNIT SELECTION SMU.Comment
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Re: 12-24-09
Kyle Brown
Southern Methodist (7-5) vs Nevada (8-4) 8:00 pm
5* Nevada -12 -110 @ WSEX
Analysis:
Nevada can run the ball, but did you know that Wolf Packs quarterback Colin Kaepernick threw for three touchdowns in the final game of the regular season and has now accounted for 35 touchdowns;16 rushing and 19 passing this year. Kaepernick rushed for 1,160 yards and passed for 1,875 in the regular season. Running back Vai Taua a junior is ninth in the NCAA in rushing yards per game at 122.3. He has 10 rushing touchdowns, including five in the past four games. He may have an even larger role with Luke Lippincott out for the bowl game. Taua carried a season-high 24 times against Boise State, a game in which Lippincott was limited to one carry. Nevadas wide receiver Brandon Wimberly is expected to win WAC Freshman of the Year honors after hauling in 46 passes for 653 yards and five touchdowns.
SMU has had problems all year against the run. The Mustangs are allowing 169.2 yards per game to rank 88th nationally, and are allowing 29.1 points per game ranked 90th in the nation. That will be a problem against Nevada, which leads the nation in rushing yardage at 362.3 yards per game. SMU must ratchet up the intensity and physical nature of its defensive front and linebackers to contain the Wolf Pack’s ground attack, which will not happen even with one of Nevadas 1000 yard rushers not in the game. The Mustangs have met their Hawaii Bowl opponent, old WAC foe Nevada, five times. Nevada holds a 3-2 advantage in the series and will make it a 4-2 advantage after tonight, also SMU is 4-5-1 in its limited bowl history. There is no doubt at all that Nevada will just punish SMU and win this game with ease and cover the spread easily.Comment
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Re: 12-24-09
Bob Balfe
SMU/Nevada UNDER 72
Nevada is a great running team going against a below average defense. The Wolfpack will not be full strength as 2 of their top 3 1000+ yard rushers are out of this game. Colin Kaepemick is still going to have a good day running the ball, but his duties will first be on being a productive QB. Nevada will not struggle running the ball however they will be less productive in the number of yards they rack up. The Wolfpack game plan will still stay the same. SMU is outmatched in this game. Sure, June Jones has done a great job at turning this program around and they do have a good passing game, but they play very weak teams. SMU also had a QB change during the last two months of the season. I am not sold that the now starting QB Kyle Padron is ready for a big game such as this. All of the bowl games have gone over the total and since its being played in Hawaii gamblers automatically take the Over. I think both teams will not live up to the hype on offense. There will be points, but scoring 72 will take a lot. Look for this game to stay UNDER the total.Comment
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Re: 12-24-09
Dwayne Bryant
SMU +13
SMU coach June Jones returns to his old stomping grounds, as he spent nine seasons in charge of the Hawaii program. Now Jones brings his Mustangs to the island for the program's first bowl appearance in 22 years. Motivation will definitely NOT be a problem for SMU. SMU has had problems stopping the run this season, which should mean much trouble against Nevada's vaunted rushing attack. But Nevada has lost two-thirds of that three-headed monster, with RB Luke Lippincott out with a toe injury and RB Vai Taua ruled academically ineligible.
On the flip side, Nevada has the second-worst pass defense in the nation, which will be a problem in this one. SMU brings the nation's 29th best passing attack into this ballgame. Freshman QB Kyle Padron has really excelled in Jones' spread offense, winning four of his five starts while tossing 64.4% completions for 1,462 yards and 8 TDs with only 4 INTs. It should also be noted that Nevada defensive coordinator Nigel Burton resigned to become the head coach at Portland State. That leaves linebackers coach Ken Wilson to run the defense for the first time in this one.
Bottom line: Nevada is missing two-thirds of their rushing attack, and their defensive coordinator has "left the building." That should be more than enough issues to keep SMU in this game until the very end. Jones will have his troops ready to play on his former home field. Grab the points with SMU.Comment
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Re: 12-24-09
StatFox
The Hawaii Bowl has gone over the total 12 times in the last 14 games, and the winning team has scored almost 45 points. Nevada hits the
mark again this season, but the game total will fall just short of 73.5. Defensively, Nevada is allowing 27.2 PPG, SMU 29.1. Both FoxSheet game
estimators are calling for a total of 69 points and this key system also points to an unexpected finish:
Play Under - Any team against the total
(SMU/NEVADA) - in a bowl game, in a non-conference game between two teams from second-tier conferences. (34-8 over the last 10 seasons.)
(81 percent, +25.2 units. Rating = 4*). As of press time, 90 percent of the public says over – so go under! Nevada 49, SMU 20.
Game Breakdown
SMU last played in a bowl game in 1984, and will look to repeat that 27-20 Aloha Bowl win when it travels to the Island to take on Nevada on
Christmas Eve. It’s been a remarkable turnaround for the Mustangs, who have completed the journey from “Death Penalty” program to finally playing in a bowl
game. Much credit goes to June Jones, former coach of Hawaii, who guided the team to a 7-5 finish in 2009. They are a huge 14-point dog though, to a Nevada
team that was 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS down the stretch, scoring 49.6 points per game after starting 0-3. The Wolf Pack are in a bowl game for a fifth straight year
and last played in this game in ‘05, winning 49-48 over UCF. They have not won a bowl contest since.
StatFox Forecaster: NEVADA 40, SMU 29Comment
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Re: 12-24-09
The Duke's Sports
SMU (+12) for 2 Units
The young Mustangs showed marked improvement from a year ago as the players bought into June Jones' system. SMU was competitive as a road dog where they covered 4 of 5 games. The offense can move the football with a well groomed freshman QB in Kyle Padron who has a good supporting cast in "go to" receiver Sanders, and productive Robinson and Beasley moreover, they've got a 1000+ rusher McNeal who is a duel threat as a receiver in Jones' spread offense. Nevada's defense has been extremely yielding for most of the year; moreover, they got thinner with the suspension of safety Duke Williams and backup LB Davis (dismissed). Furthermore, on the offensive end, the high powered Pistol attack will be without two of their 1000+ rushers in Taua (academics) and Lippincott (toe). Timing is critical in this offense and Mark Lampford (293 rushing yards) will have trouble carrying the load with versatile QB Kaepernick. With the excitement of being in a bowl for the first time in 24 years, we'll look for the Mustangs to continue to cover as a dog.Comment
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Re: 12-24-09
Judd Hall
Nevada vs. SMU
Pick: SMU +13
We're just a night away from the Hawaii Bowl and things have went from bad to worse for the Wolf Pack. Nevada's offense took a hit w/ Lippincott and Taua being out of the lineup. Now comes word that the defense will not have aftey Duke Williams for the game and linebacker Andre Davis for the game. The Pack has a lousy pass defense and that is SMU's bread and butter. This game might turn out to be an outright upset, but definitely play the Mustangs.Comment
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Re: 12-24-09
James Patrick Sports
3* SMU - Nevada Over the Total
Mustangs HC June Jones heads back to the Islands as he has SMU back in Bowl Game for the 1st time since 1984, while the Wolfpack and Hall of Fame HC Chris Ault are bowling for the 5th straight season. This game features Jones' "Run n' Shoot" offense against Ault's "Pistol" offense. Nevada has struggled against passing teams and SMU has a trio of receivers that can play with anyone. The Wolfpack has scored an average of (49.6) points after starting the season (0-3) and the winning team in this Bowl Game has averaged almost (45) points per game. Nevada is installed as the biggest favorite in all of this season's Bowl Games and the Hawaii Bowl must have a lot of distractions as this Bowl Game has gone Over the Total at a (12-2) ATS pace. Nevada is also (6-0) ATS Over the Total after (2) or more ATS wins over the past three seasons. Let the scoring begin in the Aloha Bowl - Book It DanoComment
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