12-24-09

[Mr. IWS]

NEW GUYS! LURKERS!

Dont be afraid to post services if you come across them. Your posts will be appreciated for sure.

Just put them in the appropriate section (regular or premium)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-24-09

DR BOB

**SMU 31 Nevada (-12.5) 35 (at Hawaii Bowl)
05:00 PM Pacific, 24-Dec-09

I'll take SMU in a 2-Star Best Bet at +11 points or more and for 3-Stars at +14 or more. I will also lean with the Under 69 points or higher.
Strong Opinion

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-24-09

Brandon Lang

25 DIME - SMU MUSTANGS - #1 PLAY - June Jones, I've always liked him as a coach, and I like him and his ballclub catching double digits at a venue he is very comfortable in.

As coach of Hawaii from 1999 to 2007, Jones built the program to what it is today and his imprint on their offense is still in place.

In fact, the first thing that got me on SMU tonight was Nevada's game at Hawaii this year, a game they won 31-21 as a 29 point favorite.

Now I feel they see a similar system in SMU but only better, and to see them struggle in that game to win by 10, to struggle at Utah State to win 38-35 as an 8 1/2 point favorite, the points are very attractive here.

Jones is twice the game coach Chris Ault will ever be, and you give me a June Jones team this much time to prepare for Nevada defense that is average at best and a pass defense this horrific, I will gladly jump on it.

Now the world is aware of Nevada and their # 1 rush offense in the country but if you are going to cover the biggest bowl pointspread you have got to have a defense and Nevada most certainly doesn't have that.

Of all Division One teams ranked statistically - of which there are 119, the Wolfpack rank # 26 against the run, and are you ready for this: 2nd worst pass defense in all of college football.

Folks, it all adds up to the 88th ranked defense in college football and I can't trust the 2nd worst pass defense in all of college football to cover a double digit number.

I am going to jump on the double digits and watch June Jones out coach Chris Ault and stay well within this number

As coach of Nevada Ault is a very unimpressive 1-5 SU in bowl games and just 1-3 ATS as a bowl favorite and that my friends is the final nail in the coffin for grabbing the double digit dog tonight.

25 DIME -SMU-NEVADA UNDER -Now as far as the total is concerned, I just don't see how with this much time off, and Nevada missing two of their 1,000 yard rushers that this game is going over the total.

You can't lose 2 guys in your backfield of that caliber and expect your offense to not miss a beat. Fact of the matter is I expect them to miss more than a beat or two.

Nevada played 12 games this year, and 6 of those 12 went Under. Not like they went over every game now is it.

Look for June Jones to be the one to move the chains in the passing game, keep the high-powered Nevada run game sitting on the sidelines, controlling the clock.

Jones knows how to win this game, how to coach this game and it's not to get in a shootout.

25 DIME - 2-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER - SMU & UNDER -I love SMU and the Under so much, I am going for the 3-0 sweep and to push my bowl record with paid and comp plays to 6-1 this bowl season with a 2-team 6-point teaser on SMU and the Under.

Let's take SMU to +18 1/2 or so, and let's take the total, which is currently at 72 as of this writing up to 78 and roll the dice with the Under there as well.

And that ladies and gentleman is your 25 dime Christmas Eve trifecta.

Have a great Christmas eveyone. Enjoy the time with family and friends, and I will talk to you on Christmas day.

FREE SELECTION - ORLANDO MAGIC - CHRISTMAS DAY

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-24-09

Larry Ness

REASON FOR PICK: My December Bowl Game of the Month is on Nevada at 8:00 ET. Often, at least in these "early bowls," the team that wants to be there more is the team that covers the spread. Just look at Wyoming over Fresno State. That said, "wanting to be there more" can only take a team so far and it's not enough to overcome a significant difference in talent level. In this case, one could make the case that SMU is the team that wants to be here more. After all, it's the Mustangs first bowl appearance in a quarter of a century. Additionally, there's the "June Jones factor." As you're aware, Jones, now the head guy at SMU, used to coach here at Hawaii. However, I'm of the thinking that Nevada will be the team that comes in with something to prove and that the Wolfpack's superior edge in talent will be what eventually leads to a win and cover. Obviously, both teams "want to win." The Mustangs have already achieved their goal - which was just to make it to a bowl game. Even if they lose here, its still been a great year. That's not enough for the Wolfpack though. Sure, they would have loved to beat Boise and win the WAC Title. The season can still be considered a success with a big win here though. If they lose though, it will most definitely be considered a failure. Extra motivation will come from the fact that the Wolfpack have lost three straight bowl games. They're determined to right the ship here. Lets take a look at the numbers. SMU has played tough in almost all its games against mediocre opposition and we can give the Mustangs credit for beating East Carolina, early in the year. The Pirates only average 27.8 points per game though. When matched up against more powerful offenses the Mustangs, who had the misfortune of facing two of the top five offenses in football, weren't able to keep up. They played Houston (#2 in nation with 43.9 ppg) and lost by 23 points. They also played TCU (#4 with 40.7 ppg) and lost by 25. Now, they'll face a Nevada team that also ranked in the top 5 in the country for points scored - the Wolfpack averaged 40.6 ppg. Once again, I feel they'll have trouble keeping up. The Wolfpack lost their reg. season finale and scored 'only' 33 points. That was at Boise though, among the toughest venues in the country. Prior to that, the Wolfpack had won eight straight games and they'd scored 50+ points in three straight and four of five. In fact, they topped 60 in three of those games, scoring 70 against Idaho. June Jones may be familiar with playing at Hawaii but his team is not. The last time that the Mustangs were here was in 2002 - they lost by 32. Already "happy to be here," it will be easy to get caught up in the festive island atmoshpere. The Wolfpack play here every other year though, so the trip isn't quite so special. They should be more focused on the task at hand. They'll put up a pile of points and the Mustangs, who average only 27.9 (24.8 on the road) points, won't be able to keep up. The Wolfpack are 11-3 ATS the last 14 times they were favored in the 10.5 to 21 range and with the line falling from its opener, we're getting excellent value. *10 Nevada

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-24-09

Root


Millionaire. Smu

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-24-09

Big Al - 3* Smu +12.5