12-26-09

**GoBlue** · 12-26-2009, 08:01 AM

Re: 12-26-09

Lenny Del Genio's Bowl Trifecta of the Year:

1.Lenny Del Genio | CFB Side Sat, 12/26/09 - 1:00 PM double-dime bet 213 Ohio -3.0 (-110) bodog vs 214 Marshall
Analysis:
Play on Ohio at 1:00 ET. Of all the 68 teams that quali~fied for a bowl game this year, Marshall has to rank among the worst of all of them. Not only did the 6-6 Thundering Herd stumble down the stretch, losing three of four, but a 52-21 loss in the season finale to UTEP cost HC Mark Snyder his job after five consecutive non-winning seasons, effectively leaving the program in flux. Interim HC Rick Minter will have little to prove here as Snyder's permanent successor, West Virginia assistant Doc Holliday, has already officially been named. Not only is the coaching staff in total disarray, but no Marshall player has ever appeared in a postseason game either. Meanwhile, Ohio will be looking for its first bowl win ever as well as its first 10-win season since 1968. The Bobcats qualified for the MAC Title game for the second time in four years this season, losing to heavily favored Central Michigan, but were surprisingly able to keep the game close despite essentially playing what was a de facto road game. The main reason was a defense that led the nation in turnover ratio, producing 36 takeaways. Coupled with the special teams, Ohio had a total of 10 non-offensive touchdowns this year, which is not an anomaly, but simply remarkable. QB Theo Scott, who threw for 2258 yards and 19 TD's during the regular season, should find it to be 'easy sledding' against a Marshall pass defense, which ranked 99th in the nation and allowed 517 yards in that season ending loss to UTEP. Do not expect a strong swelling of crowd support either for the Thundering Herd here as the AD reported that only 30% of the alloted tickets had been sold. Take Ohio.

2. Lenny Del Genio | CFB Side Sat, 12/26/09 - 4:30 PM
double-dime bet 216 Pittsburgh -2.5 (-110) Bookmaker.com vs 215 North Carolina
Analysis:
Play on Pittsburgh at 4:30 ET. You have to love bowl games named "Little Caesars" and "Meineke Car Care," don't you? Probably neither Pitt nor North Carolina are happy to be here for this mid-level affair as each had aspirations of playing in New Year's Day games. In particular, the Panthers were very close to upsetting unbeaten Cincinnati in the de facto Big East title game on December 5th, blowing a 31-10 second half lead and ended up losing 45-44 thanks to a botched extra point attempt. Still plenty of progress was made in Dave Wannstedt's fifth season at his alma mater as the team can achieve its first 10-win season since 1981. That was back in the Dan Marino days (was a junior). The same cannot be said for Butch Davis and North Carolina, however, who finished a disappointing fourth in the ACC Coastal Division and ended their regular season on a low note~ by losing to rival NC State for a third straight year. Even playing in Charlotte may be of no use as we've already seen regional advantages (UCF in St. Petersburg Bowl) not work out for other teams + the players probably wanted to take a road trip. The key to this game will be offense. UNC finished the year ranked 107th in total offense and 97th in pass efficiency. Losing three NFL draft choices from the WR corps will do that to you. Pitt's offense ranked 11th in the pass efficiency department behind the solid QB Bill Stull and freshman RB Dion Lewis more than filled the void left by LeSean McCoy's departure to the NFL, compiling 1,640 yards and 16 touchdowns. Take Pittsburgh.

3. Lenny Del Genio | CFB Side Sat, 12/26/09 - 8:00 PM
double-dime bet 218 Southern Cal -7.5 (-110) Bookmaker.com vs 217 Boston College
Analysis:
Play on USC at 8:00 ET. We expect the anti-Pac 10 sentiment and specifically anti-Trojans sentiment to run wild here as we've already seen this number get bet down substantially. It has not been a good start to the Bowl season for the Pac 10 as both Oregon State and Cal lost outright to Mountain West foes BYU and Utah, and badly at that. The big story heading into this game was supposed to be how motivated Southern Cal could possibly be after appearing in the Rose Bowl for four consecutive seasons. However, that all changed when three Trojans, two of them starters, were ruled academi~cally ineligible and then starting tailback Joe McKnight did not make the trip with the team due to incomplete paperwork and circumstances surrounding the improper usage of a SUV that was registered to a local businessman. Through all of this, USC HC Pete Carroll has vowed that his charges will play this game "like it's the National Championship" and we are inclined to believe him. Simply put, even with all the distractions, the Trojans are too much for a Boston College team that averaged just 14 PPG away from home this year. The passing game is almost non-existent and is non-comparable to many of the Pac 10 offenses that shredded the USC defense during the regular season. In their two road games vs. bowl opponents, the Eagles managed a paltry 215 combined yards of offense and turned the ball over seven times. Remember that for all their struggles, the Trojans D allowed an average of just 20.4 PPG and that number actually went down a full point when playing outside of the Coliseum. Seven of 12 opponents were held to 16 points or less. This is a team that has gone 6-1 SU/ATS in its last seven bowl games under Carroll. Take USC.

**GoBlue** · 12-26-2009, 08:02 AM

Re: 12-26-09

NCAAF ADDITIONAL

Bowl Season

Trend Report

Saturday, December 26

1:00 PM
OHIO vs. MARSHALL
Ohio is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Marshall
Ohio is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing Marshall
Marshall is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Marshall's last 10 games

4:30 PM
NORTH CAROLINA vs. PITTSBURGH
North Carolina is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
North Carolina is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Pittsburgh is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Pittsburgh's last 8 games

8:00 PM
BOSTON COLLEGE vs. SOUTHERN CAL
Boston College is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Boston College's last 5 games
Southern Cal is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games
Southern Cal is 18-4 SU in its last 22 games

**GoBlue** · 12-26-2009, 08:03 AM

Re: 12-26-09

NORTHCOAST POWERSWEEP

1* Marshall Under 49.5
3* Pittsburgh
2* Boston College

**GoBlue** · 12-26-2009, 08:05 AM

Re: 12-26-09

Coastline sports

NBA
HORNETS +1
ATLANTA @ INDIANA OVER 203
PHOENIX @ GOLDEN STATE UNDER 234
NHL
PHILADELPHIA -125
CHICAGO -130

Cleveland Insider 12/26/09 11-6 L6 days

NBA
Houston -10
Phoenix -3
College Bowl
Boston College +7

Street Rosenthal of HandicappingTrends 6-1 in the last 7 plays

*300 Ohio -3 (NCAAF)
*200 Boston College +7 (NCAAF)

DOGDOUG SYSTEM PLAYS

Boston College +7

**GoBlue** · 12-26-2009, 08:09 AM

Re: 12-26-09

Vegas Hotsheet 12/26

Paid Picks - CFB - Ohio / Pitt / BC
Free Pick - Pitt/NC Over 44

Double Dragon 12/26

Now 4-0 in bowls / HYDRAS 1-0
BOSTON COLLEGE +7

Don Wallace Sports

Pittsburgh -2 over North Carolina

**GoBlue** · 12-26-2009, 08:13 AM

Re: 12-26-09

SPORTS ADVISORS

COLLEGE FOOTBALL

LITTLE CAESARS PIZZA BOWL
(at Detroit)

Ohio (9-4 SU and ATS) vs. Marshall (6-6, 6-5 ATS)

Ohio, back in the postseason after a two-year hiatus, makes the short trek to Ford Field to take on the Thundering Herd, who reached a bowl game for the first time since 2004.

The Bobcats went on a 7-1 SU tear (6-2 ATS) to win the Mid-American Conference’s East Division, earning a date with Central Michigan in the Dec. 4 conference title game. In that meeting, also held in Detroit, the Bobcats lost 20-10 to halt a four-game winning streak, but they covered as a hefty 13½-point underdog to finish the regular season on ATS surges of 9-2 and 4-0. Ohio, led by former Nebraska coach Frank Solich is seeking its first 10-win season since 1968

Marshall stumbled to the finish line in Conference USA, losing three of its last four games SU and ATS, including a 52-21 beatdown as a two-point road pup against Texas-El Paso on Nov. 28 to cap the regular season. The Herd failed to cover in their last three games, following a 6-1 ATS stretch (4-3 SU). Marshall defensive coordinator Rick Minter will serve as the head coach in this contest, taking over for Mark Snyder, who was pressured to resign after the season-ending loss at UTEP.

While Marshall hasn’t gone bowling since 2004, the Bobcats were last in the postseason in 2006, when they fell in the GMAC Bowl to Southern Miss (Conference USA) 28-7 as a six-point underdog.

With Marshall being a former MAC member, these teams used to meet annually. The Thundering Herd won four of the last five meetings, most recently winning 16-13 in October 2005, but Ohio went 4-1 ATS, including cashing a 10-point home ‘dog in that 2004 clash. Going back further, Marshall has won eight of the last nine SU against Ohio, but has cashed just four times in that stretch.

The Bobcats averaged 25.4 points and 324.5 yards per game, with 204.8 ypg coming through the air on the arm of QB Theo Scott, who finished with 2,258 passing yards, 19 TDs and 10 INTs. Ohio’s defense gave up just 21.3 ppg and 354.2 ypg, but 150.9 rushing ypg.

The Thundering Herd averaged 21.8 points and 355.3 ypg (216.5 passing, 138.8 rushing), but they gave up more on both counts, allowing 24.9 points and 392.5 yards per outing. QB Brian Anderson paced Marshall’s offense, throwing for 2,561 yards, but his 14 TDs were offset by 13 INTs.

Along with their current 4-0 ATS run, the Bobcats are on pointspread upswings of 8-1-1 following a spread-cover and 7-2 outside the MAC. Marshall is 3-9 ATS in its last dozen non-conference tilts and 1-4 ATS in its last five against the MAC, but the Herd sport positive ATS streaks of 6-1 in December and 5-1 in bowl games.

Ohio is on “under” runs of 5-1 as a favorite and 9-4 in non-conference contests, and the under is on a bundle of tears for Marshall, including 8-2 overall, 6-1 with the Herd as an underdog, 4-1 in bowl games, 4-1 outside Conference USA, 7-2 against winning teams, 4-1 after a SU loss and 10-4 after a non-cover.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER

MEINEKE CAR CARE BOWL
(at Charlotte, N.C.)

North Carolina (8-4, 6-5 ATS) vs. (17) Pittsburgh (9-3, 7-4 ATS)

The Panthers, who narrowly missed out on winning the Big East championship and earning a BCS bowl bid, instead drop down to a second-tier contest when they head to Bank of America Stadium to face North Carolina, which ostensibly will be playing a home game.

Pittsburgh went on a six-game winning streak (4-2 ATS) to surge into BCS contention, then lost its last two games by a total of four points (1-1 ATS). In fact, the Panthers’ three defeats were by a total of 11 points. In the season finale against Cincinnati on Dec. 5, with the Big East title and BCS berth on the line, the Panthers raced out to a 31-10 second-quarter lead, but they couldn’t hold off a furious Bearcats rally, losing 45-44 on a TD pass in the waning seconds. Still, Pitt cashed as a 1½-point home pup, ending a two-game ATS hiccup.

North Carolina finished the regular season on a 4-1 SU and ATS run, including outright wins from the underdog role at Virginia Tech, against Miami at home and at Boston College. However, the Tar Heels fell to in-state rival North Carolina State in the Nov. 28 finale 28-27 as a 5½-point road chalk, but they still reached the postseason for a second straight year, after a three-year bowl hiatus.

The Panthers were dealt a 3-0 loss as a one-point pup in a yawner of a Sun Bowl last year, and they’ve failed to cash in their last four postseason games. Meanwhile, this is the Tar Heels’ second straight trip to the Meineke Car Care Bowl, having lost to West Virginia last year 31-30 as a two-point underdog. UNC is 5-2 SU and 5-1-1 ATS in its last seven postseason appearances.

These teams met twice in three seasons from 1998-2000, but they haven’t gotten together since. North Carolina took both those matchups SU and ATS, including a 20-17 road victory getting seven points in November 2000. In fact, the Tar Heels have cashed in each of five all-time lined clashes between these schools.

Freshman RB Dion Lewis racked up 1,635 rushing yards and 12 TDs, averaging 5.5 ypc for a potent Pitt rushing attack that put up 184.6 ypg among its 399.9 total ypg. Wideout Jonathan Baldwin (54 catches, 1,080 yards, 20 ypc, 8 TDs) also had a big year. The Panthers averaged 33.2 ppg, while the defense gave up 20 points and 323.9 total yards per game and also led the nation in sacks. Pitt’s defense yielded more than 22 points just three times all year..

Carolina had one of the nation’s least productive offenses, averaging just 311.3 ypg (107th out of 120 teams) while putting up 24.3 ppg, scoring more than 21 points just five times against Division I-A competition. However, the Tar Heels countered the sluggish offense by fielding the sixth-best total defense (267.8 ypg), which surrendered just 16.9 ppg.

Pitt is in ATS ruts of 3-8 as a favorite of three points or less and 2-5 against ACC opposition. But they are also on a 4-0 ATS run following a SU loss and are on additional spread-covering streaks of 4-1 in December and 7-3 as a chalk.

The Tar Heels are on pointspread surges of 5-2 overall, 4-0 against winning teams, 4-1 after a non-cover, 12-3 catching three points or less and 5-2 outside the ACC.

The under has hit in six of Pitt’s last eight outings overall (5-1 in its last six as a favorite), but the over is 4-1 in the Panthers’ last five against the ACC and 5-1 in their last six as a chalk of three points or less. North Carolina is on “over” spurts of 5-2 overall, 5-1 in non-conference play, 7-2 with the Heels a ‘dog and 8-3 against Big East foes.

ATS ADVANTAGE: NORTH CAROLINA and OVER

EMERALD BOWL
(at San Francisco)

Boston College (8-4, 6-5 ATS) vs. Southern Cal (8-4, 3-9 ATS)

The Trojans, perennial BCS contenders who completely fell apart this season, try to end things on a high note when they head up the Pacific Coast to AT&T Park to face Boston College.

Southern Cal was dealt an early-season upset loss at Washington, then dropped three of its last five games (1-4 ATS), ending a seven-year run in which it either won or shared the Pac-10 title. Two of those final three losses were stunning blowouts – a 47-20 setback at Oregon as a three-point road chalk, followed two weeks later by a 55-21 home wipeout to Stanford as an 11½-point favorite. The Trojans finished the regular season Dec. 5 with a 21-17 loss to Arizona as a seven-point home choice.

Boston College finished the year on a 4-2 SU surge to get bowl-eligible, capped by a 19-17 win at Maryland on Nov. 28, though it fell short as a 4½-point road favorite. That marked the third straight ATS setback for the Eagles, following a 5-1 ATS run. BC’s offense was less than impressive over the final three games (2-1 SU), getting held to 19 points or less in all three and totaling just 46 points (15.3 ppg).

USC crushed Penn State 38-24 in last year’s Rose Bowl, covering as a 9½-point favorite in improving to 6-1 ATS in their last seven bowl games (3-0 SU and ATS last three). The Eagles are in a bowl game for the 11th consecutive year, going 9-1 SU (6-4 ATS) in the previous 10 postseason appearances. However, B.C. has failed to cash in its last three bowl outings (2-1 SU).

USC scored 26.7 points and averaged 385.1 yards per contest with a fairly balanced attack (211.7 ypg passing, 173.4 ypg rushing). Defensively, the Trojans surrendered 20.4 points and 342.8 yards per outing (211.8 passing, 131 rushing). However, after giving up a total of just 43 points in the first five games, USC got torched for 28.9 ppg over its final seven contests, yielding 27 points or more four times.

BC ranked just 97th in the nation in total offense 324.9 ypg, and that translated into 25.8 ppg. Sophomore RB Montel Harris was the offensive star, rushing for 1,357 yards (4.8 ypc) and 13 TDs. The Eagles’ defense surrendered just 19.4 ppg and 318.4 ypg.

These teams haven’t met in 21 years, after squaring off in a home-and-home series in 1987 and 1988. USC won both contests (1-1 ATS), including a 34-7 road blowout in 1988 as a 5½-point chalk.

The Trojans are on a handful of spread-covering slides, including 1-6 overall (all as a favorite), 0-4 in December, 1-5 against winning teams and 1-4 after a non-cover. However, they are on ATS rolls of 5-1 as a bowl chalk, 15-5 laying 3½ to 10 points in any game, 24-8 outside the Pac-10 and 13-5 following a SU loss.

The Eagles sport positive ATS streaks of 16-7 as a pup, 4-0 as a bowl ‘dog, 6-1 in non-conference action and 7-3 against winning teams. But Boston College is in the midst of ATS skids of 0-5 in December and 1-5 at neutral sites.

Southern Cal is on “under” tears of 24-11-1 overall, 28-13-1 as a favorite, 6-0 after a SU loss and 4-0 in December, and the under for Boston College is on rolls of 4-1 overall, 5-0 outside the ACC and 4-1 on neutral fields. However, the total has gone high in USC’s last five bowl games overall and its last four as a postseason chalk.

ATS ADVANTAGE: SOUTHERN CAL

**GoBlue** · 12-26-2009, 08:14 AM

Re: 12-26-09

THE GOLDSHEET: 3-3

Ohio 26 - Marshall 19–In this meeting of old MAC rivals, Ohio holds most of
the important edges. The Bobcat program has stabilized under HC Frank
Solich, making its second bowl appearance in his fifth season. By contrast,
Marshall is in a state of flux, as HC Mark Snyder resigned under pressure and
has been replaced by West Virginia assistant John “Doc” Holliday. The team
will be coached by Thundering Herd d.c. and ex-Cincinnati HC Rick Minter, who
very much wanted the head coaching job.
The Bobcats have a much more dynamic and productive QB in fifth-year sr.
QB Theo Scott, who had no interceptions, 6 TD passes and threw for 200 ypg
in his last 3 starts. Scott can also make plays with his legs. He has a trio of
explosive receivers in LaVon Brazill, Taylor Price and Terrence McRae, who
combined for 135 catches, 1958 yards and 19 TDs. Brazill returned three punts
for scores. RB Chris Garrett proved a solid rushing threat, averaging 4.7 ypc in
his career, and he’s also another receiving option (60 career catches).
Marshall is heavily reliant on the production of RB Darius Marshall, who ran
for 1054 yards and 11 TDs despite sitting out three games. He missed the last
two games after injuring his ankle, but should be recovered for this game. Jr.
QB Brian Anderson threw for 2561 YP, but has thrown nearly as many ints. (13)
as TDPs (14), and he isn’t a scrambler (negative YR in his 23 games for the
Herd). Marshall’s defense ranked 80th overall, and 99th against the pass.
Ohio is much healthier now than it was in the MAC championship game
against Central Michigan, when Scott, Garrett and Brazill were all less than
100%. Although CB Idris Lawrence was injured against CMU and won’t play,
the key secondary playmakers for the Bobcat defense are sr. S Patrick Tafua &
RS frosh S Gerald Moore (13th in the country with 6 ints.). True to Solich’s form
as a coach, the Bobcats took care of the ball this season, ranking 6th in turnover
margin (Marshall was 86th). Ohio is taking significantly more fans to Ford Field
than Marshall, and the Bobcats reportedly relish the chance to renew hostilities
vs. their old rival, which has failed to excel since jilting the MAC for C-USA five
years ago. (DNP...SR: Ohio 29-17-6)

*NORTH CAROLINA 26 - Pittsburgh 23—Those who had the misfortune of
tuning into Pitt’s ghastly 3-0 Sun Bowl loss to Oregon State last season will
hardly recognize the Panther offense this year. Late-blooming sr. QB Bill Stull
has fired 21 TD passes vs. only 8 interceptions, versatile former RB & LB sr.
Dorin Dickerson (10 TD catches) is excelling at TE, and athletic 6-5, 225 soph
WR Jonathan Baldwin (20 ypc & 8 TDs on 54 receptions) oozes pro potential.
Plus, there’s lightly-recruited true frosh RB Dion Lewis, who’s scored 17 TDs
and dashed for 1640 yards on the ground, the third-highest rushing total in the
nation this season!
While the balanced Pitt attack vs. the speedy North Carolina defense
allowing only 268 ypg (No. 6 in the country) and loaded with future NFL draft
picks is the marquee battle in this matchup, the game will likely hinge on how
well the Panther stop unit is able to hector Tar Heel QB T.J. Yates. Sure, it won’t
be easy to keep the potent Pitt pass rush (nation-leading 45 sacks) at bay. But
the banged-up Carolina OL did start to solidify down the stretch. And, with
“body punches” by 6-2, 245 Tar Heel sr. RB Ryan Houston
pounding some of the purpose out of the Panthers’
determined front 7, the confident jr. Yates, a three-year
starter, should find sufficient time to strike a few major aerial
blows. Add in wily HC Butch Davis’ track record in bowls (5-
0 vs. the spread) and as an underdog (covered 7 of the last 8
in that role), as well as a staunchly partisan Carolina crowd at
Charlotte, and the Tar Heels seem likely to erase the bitter
memory of their one-point loss to West Virginia on the same
field a year ago.
(DNP...SR: North Carolina 4-2)

*Southern Cal 20 - Boston College 17—Before the season began, we’re
not sure that even Nostradamus would have forecast SC lining up against BC
in bowl action. That’s because the Trojans, BCS regulars over the past seven
seasons, haven’t played in a pre-New Year’s bowl since Pete Carroll’s first
Trojan team lost to Utah in the 2001 Las Vegas Bowl, which curiously marked
SC’s 6th straight spread loss in non-New Year’s/BCS action.
Pointspread failures by the Trojans in past lower-echelon bowls, however, is
no indicator that history will repeat itself in San Francisco...but SC’s recent
shortcomings against the number (2-9 last 11 TY) could convince otherwise. It
is unlikely that Carroll has had the time to correct the schematic flaws,
particularly on the offensive side, that insiders believe brought the Trojans back
to the Pac-10 pack in 2009. Inconsistencies demonstrated by first-year playcaller
Jeremy Bates contributed to the alarming regression of true frosh QB
Matt Barkley, who tossed at least one pick in his last eight games as the “O”
sputtered down the stretch (only 20 ppg last 5). Meanwhile, defenders seemed
more concerned with delivering highlight-reel hits than their basic
responsibilities (ballyhooed S Taylor Mays a main culprit), allowing an un-
Carroll-like nearly 30 ppg the last half of the campaign.
Granted, the choppy Eagle attack dealt with its own ups-and-downs at QB
with 25-year-old frosh Dave Shinskie shaking off the rust after six years of minor
league baseball. Soph RB Montel Harris, however, ran with some flair down the
stretch (561 YR last 4), and HC Frank Spaziani’s stout rush “D” allowed a mere
2.9 ypc. Those and other factors indicate no-nonsense BC (8-1 SU its last 9
bowls!) can likely keep this one interesting.

**GoBlue** · 12-26-2009, 08:14 AM

Re: 12-26-09

GOLD SHEET EXTRA: 1-1

BOWL TECH PLAYS

NORTH CAROLINA
Over the past decade, one of the nation’s most successful bowl coaches
has been North Carolina’s Butch Davis, who leads his Tar Heels against
Pittsburgh in the Meineke Car Care Bowl at Charlotte December 26. Davis has
covered all five of his bowl pointspread decisions at Miami & Chapel Hill, and
please note his Tar Heels have covered 7 of their last 8 chances as an underdog.
North Carolina is also a featured recommendation in both the Power Underdog
and College Coach as Underdog (with Davis) systems vs. the Panthers.

BOSTON COLLEGE
One of the truths of the 2009 college season was never to trust Southern
Cal, which posted one of the nation’s worst spread marks as it failed to live up
to expectations. The Trojans, who dropped 9 of their last 11 vs. the number
this season, will be hard-pressed to turn things around when facing rugged
Boston College in the Emerald Bowl at San Francisco’s AT&T Park
December 26. Note, too, that SC coach Pete Carroll is also just 2-8 vs. the line
his last 10 chances as chalk away from the Coliseum, and historically the Trojans
have fared poorly in these “pre-New Year’s” bowls (although they haven’t
played in one of them since 2001), failing to cover in their last six. Meanwhile, the
Eagles had won eight straight bowl games prior to last year’s 16-14 loss to
Vanderbilt in the Music City Bowl, and BC is 15-6 its last 21 as a dog. The Eagles
are also a preferred “7+” bowl dog (dogs getting 7 points or more are 61-32 vs.
the number this decade), as well as a preferred Power Underdog vs. SC.

TECHNICIAN'S CORNER

OHIO vs. MARSHALL (Little Caesars Bowl, December 26)...Frank
Solich and Rick Minter a combined 3-7 SU and vs. line in bowls. Solich,
however, is 10-4 vs. line last 14 on board since late LY. Ohio also covered its
last 4 TY and Bobcats covered 5 of last 6 away from Athens. Herd failed to
cover last 3 on board TY but did cover 4 of 7 away from home, improvement
on recent road marks (9-21 vs. line from ‘04-08). Note MAC 0-5 vs. line in
bowls LY, however. Tech edge-slight to Ohio, based on team trends.

NORTH CAROLINA vs. PITTSBURGH (Meineke Car Care Bowl,
December 26)...Note Butch Davis 5-0 vs. line in previous bowls at Miami and
UNC. Heels covered 4 of last 5 in ‘09 and were 3-1 as dog, Butch now 7-1 vs.
line his last 8 as dog. Tech edge-UNC, based on Butch bowl trends.

BOSTON COLLEGE VS. SOUTHERN CAL (Emerald, December
26)...Trojans offered poor value TY, just 2-9 vs. line last 11 on board TY. Pete
Carroll also just 2-8 vs. number last 10 as favorite away from home. Trojans
have failed to cover last 6 pre-New Year’s bowls dating back to 1985 Aloha
Bowl vs. Alabama (although Carroll hasn’t been involved in one of those since
2001 Las Vegas Bowl loss vs. Utah), but Carroll has covered last 3 and 6 of
last 7 bowls overall. Carroll just 27-34 vs. number last 61 on board since mid
‘05. BC had won 8 straight bowls prior to LY’s 16-14 loss vs. Vandy in Music
City. Eagles, however, have failed to cover last 3 bowls after covering
previous 6. Spaziani 2-2 vs. line as dog TY but BC 15-6 vs. spread last 21 in
role. Note that 7-13½-point bowl dogs are 58-28 vs. number this decade!
Tech edge-BC, based on team trends.

**GoBlue** · 12-26-2009, 08:15 AM

Re: 12-26-09

CKO : 1-0

10 OHIO over Marshall
Late Score Forecast:
OHIO 28 - Marshall 17

Ohio observers confident of a positive result behind intense 5th-year HC Frank Solich. Bobcats are much healthier than
they were in the MAC championship game, and they own the more versatile and explosive attack, led by multi-talented
QB Theo Scott and a trio of dangerous receivers. The Bobcats have a superor defense as well. Meanwhile, Marshall
team and staff must be feeling jilted, as interim HC Minter is just a temp for departed Mark Snyder, with incoming HC John
Holliday observing. (at Detroit, Michigan)

**GoBlue** · 12-26-2009, 08:15 AM

Re: 12-26-09

MARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK: 5-1

Marshall over Ohio U by 1
With the United States car industry struggling to fi ght its way out of
the toilet, the former Motor City Bowl decided to downplay Detroit’s
connection to automobile assembly lines and crawl into bed with a pizza
company instead. That decision parallels our own ‘perception versus
reality’ approach to this game. The majority of stats and information
available to sports fans portray Ohio University as owning all the edges
while ‘Ol’ Reliable’ (our database) points us toward the underdog
Herd. Ohio HC Frank Solich has built the Bobcats into one of the more
consistent programs in his league, leading the team to its second MAC
East title in the past four seasons. A win for the Bobbies here would not
only tie a school record by giving them 10 wins on the year, it would
also mark the fi rst postseason win in the program’s history. In addition,
Ohio is riding a current 8-2 ATS streak thanks largely to a defense that
forced a nation-leading 36 turnovers in 2009. By comparison, Marshall
appears to be in shambles: the 6-6 Herd looks more Blundering than
Thundering, losing four of their last fi ve games outright to close the
regular season. Worst of all, a 52-21 annihilation by UTEP in the Herd’s
fi nale was a sorrowful sendoff for Mark Snyder. And even though
the school moved quickly to hire West Virginia assistant John “Doc”
Holliday as his replacement, ‘interim coach’ Rick Minter will bear
the responsibility of leading the team here. Now for the good stuff.
Marshall owns a 6-2 SU and ATS record in bowl games and 6-6 bowlers
off a loss are a wallet-fi lling 12-3 ATS. MAC bowl participants aren’t
quite as fortunate, logging a dismal 1-7 SU and 0-8 ATS mark recently
and the Bobcats have been tied to the whipping post in their series with
Marshall, going 1-7 SU in the last eight meetings. The return of twotime
1,000 yard rusher Darius Marshall (missed the last two games with
an ankle sprain) and several key offensive linemen that were slowed
by late-season injuries means the Herd will be fi red up and ready to
rumble with one of their oldest rivals (schools are just 90 miles apart).
The presence of Minter, a former head coach at Cincinnati, should
further energize a Marshall squad that faced seven bowl-eligible teams
in 2009. Both outfi ts sport similar green color schemes but only one will
head home with the real ‘green’ at the conclusion of this one. With the
Herd making its 8th bowl appearance since moving to the FBS in 1997,
we’ll Man-up with Marshall today.

N Carolina over Pittsburgh by 3
Both teams enter this game embarrassed, angry and ready to do some
serious hitting. North Carolina heads to Charlotte for what basically
amounts to a home game after dropping its third straight meeting with
hated rival NC State, a 28-27 loss that tarnished a four-game win streak
including wins over Miami Fla, Virginia Tech and Boston College. But
Pittsburgh’s season-ending losses were devastating as the Panthers played
their way right out of a BCS bowl bid. A 3-point loss at West Virginia in
the Backyard Brawl was followed by a 45-44 home loss to Cincinnati for
the Big East title, a game where the Bearcats roared back from a 21-point
defi cit and capitalized on a botched extra point by Pitt. Panthers coach
Dave Wannstedt tried to shake off the disappointment of being relegated
to a mid-tier bowl by stating, “Our program is excited to play another
football game” but building up his defl ated team will be a huge task. “It
almost feels like throwing the season away,” said senior DL Gus Mustakas
about the loss to Cincy. “You go so far and you come so close… it really
hurts, bad.” Fortunately for Pittsburgh, they own one of the nation’s
premier running backs in Dion Lewis, who parlayed a rare combination
of speed and power into 1,640 yards rushing, 3rd best in the country. But
Lewis will be tested by a rugged Tar Heel defense that allowed just 93
rush yards per game and picked off 19 passes on the season. Our trip to
the ATS archives yielded a surprisingly one-sided cache of information –
all pointing towards North Carolina. For openers, ACC bowlers are 13-3
ATS versus Big East opposition, including 5-0 ATS off a loss. ACC bowl
dogs are also 35-18-2 ATS, including 11-0 ATS the last 11 as dogs off a
loss, and 6-0 ATS as dogs of less than 10 points against the Big East. UNC
coach Butch Davis owns a solid 12-3 ATS record versus Big East foes off
a SU and ATS loss while Wannstedt counters with a paltry 14-17 SU and
12-19 ATS mark versus .666 or greater competition. Sure, the Panthers
will be out to make amends from last year’s mistake-fi lled 3-0 bowl loss to
Oregon State but with poor-traveling Pittsburgh expected to bring only
a token contingent of fans to this game, we’re not interested in laying
points in an obvious coaching mismatch. In what should be a close one
(Pitt’s three losses came by a total of just 11 points), Carolina prevails to
post its best SU record of the decade.

Usc over Boston College by 6
Every bowl season, we hear about matchups where one team is overjoyed
to be playing while its opponent feels just the opposite – and this game
looks to be 2009’s most obvious example of that phenomenon. Both
teams enter with identical 8-4 records but Boston College’s season has
been viewed as a success while Southern Cal fans can only see a year of
underachieving disappointment. And why not? After storming its way to
seven straight Pac-10 titles and BCS bowl appearances, the Trojans’ dynasty
crumbled and USC fell out of the AP Top 25 for the fi rst time in eight years.
Freshman QB Matt Barkley couldn’t get the job done, fi nishing with a TDINT
ratio of 13-to-12 compared to 34-to-10 the previous season under Mark
Sanchez. And the normally dominant defensive unit didn’t recover from
the loss of eight starters, often playing with a glaring lack of emotion and
intensity. BC started its own freshman QB in David Shinskie but the Eagles
rallied to reach their 11th consecutive bowl game after being picked to
fi nish near the bottom of the ACC by preseason pundits. A stop unit that
fi nished 18th in scoring defense and 23rd in overall defense should be able
to hold its own against a sputtering USC offense that failed to top the
21-point mark in four of its last fi ve games (three SU losses, including two
at the Coliseum). Much like the UNC-Pittsburgh game previously outlined,
the ACC representative has been a good bet to ring the register. ACC bowl
dogs are now 35-18-2 ATS overall and Boston College has won eight of its
last nine bowls outright. Even better, the Eagles are featured in this week’s
INCREDIBLE STAT on page 2 where they’re an amazing 41-4 SU against
non-conference foes – with no loss coming by more than four points! Don’t
be swayed by USC head coach Pete Carroll’s guarantee that “we’re going
to play this game like it’s the national championship game.” The hard truth
is the Trojans were 30-5 ‘In The Stats’ versus fellow bowlers the previous
fi ve years – but were only 3-4 ITS this season. Though the two schools have
already signed to play a two-game series in 2013-14, we like the hard-trying
visitors from Beantown to cash in today’s ‘preview’ bout.

**GoBlue** · 12-26-2009, 08:16 AM

Re: 12-26-09

STATFOX PLATINUM SHEET

OVERAL: 4-2

(213) OHIO vs. (214) MARSHALL
StatFox John says: With Mark Snyder having resigned from the
head coaching position at Marshall at the end of the 6-6 regular
season, this is no time to be backing the Thundering Herd in a bowl
game. I have to question whether they are even deserving of being
in a bowl game at all. Their StatFox Outplay Factor Rating is -3.4, a
full 6.6 points fewer than Ohio’s, and they only averaged 21.8
points per game this season on offense. One of the StatFox Game
Estimators also projects about a seven-point win for the Bobcats. I
look for Ohio to leave Ford Field this time around with a much happier
feeling.
Play: Ohio

Game Breakdown

Charlotte hosts its annual bowl game pitting the ACC vs. the Big East. For the second straight year, North Carolina plays in its home state,
taking on Pittsburgh. This is actually the third time since 2004 that the Tar Heels play in the Meineke Car Care Bowl, but they have lost the prior two. They were 8-
4 SU and 6-5 ATS in ’09 and seemed to play their best football at the end, going 4-1 SU and ATS in their final five contests. Pittsburgh looks to pick up the pieces
of shattered BCS dreams, as the Panthers were a minute away from an upset of Cincinnati and a trip to the Sugar Bowl two weeks ago. Overall, they were 9-3 but
lost their last two. They haven’t won a bowl game since ’03 and are 0-3 SU and ATS in that span.
StatFox Forecaster: PITTSBURGH 26, N CAROLINA 19

Game Breakdown

The 2009 season will be looked upon as a disappointment for USC, as the Trojans finished the season with four losses, their most since ‘01.
It will be even more devastating however, if they can’t beat Boston College in the Emerald Bowl in San Francisco. Playing in this level of bowl game is unfamiliar
territory for USC, which has been part of the BCS party in each of the last seven years and was 6-1 SU and ATS in those bowl games. Still, the Trojans are a
heavy nine-point favorite against a Boston College team that shares the same 8-4 record in ’09, and is on a 19-6 ATS run when playing with rest. The Eagles lost
in the Music City Bowl game a year ago, 16-14, snapping an eight-game bowl win streak.
StatFox Forecaster: USC 30, BOSTON COLLEGE 18

**GoBlue** · 12-26-2009, 08:16 AM

Re: 12-26-09

POINTWISE:

OVERALL: 2-4

1*: 1-1
2* :0-1
4*; 0-1
5*: 0-1
6*: 1-0

OHIO U 27 - Marshall 22 RATING: 6
NORTH CAROLINA 24 - Pittsburgh 23 RATING: 5
SO CALIFORNIA 31 - Boston College 16 RATING: 4

**GoBlue** · 12-26-2009, 08:17 AM

Re: 12-26-09

NC POWERPLAYS:

3-3 ( 5 WERE NO PLAYS RATING WISE )3* WINNER

With Marshall HC Snyder resigning, MU will be coached by DC Minter for the bowl. PP predicts
a 4 pt win by Ohio which is close to the line, but the better play is the total. PP predicts just 38 total
points and the line is currently 50. Two tough D’s and mediocre offenses = Under.
4? UNDER 50 OHIO/MARSHALL

PP calls this one right at the line showing Pitt with a 3 pt win and a 289-266 yd edge. We think
Pitt will rebound from blowing a 21 pt lead to Cincy in the ssn fi nale. We like Pitt.
NO PLAY: PITT 23 NORTH CAROLINA 20

Boston College is forecasted to keep it close losing by only 4 points and they also have the
special teams edge. Can’t imagine the Trojans being motivated for their 1st non-BCS bowl in 8 yrs.
4? BOSTON COLLEGE (+) 19 USC 23

**GoBlue** · 12-26-2009, 08:17 AM

Re: 12-26-09

NORTHCOAST POWERSWEEP:

OVERALL: 3-2

2*:1-1
3*: 1-1
4*: 1-0

The series dates back to 1905 and OU leads 29-17-6. These 2 were MAC foes from ’97-’04 & MU went 7-1 SU (3-5 ATS) vs the Bobcats in that span. Marshall enters the bowl with mixed emotions. They finished the regular season 6-6 and are making their 1st bowl appearance since 2004, but HC Snyder resigned (under pressure) after the season finale and DC Rick Minter will coach the bowl. Minter was the HC at Cincy from 1994-2003 and took them to 4 bowl gms (1-3 SU/ATS). OU is gunning for their 1st 10 win ssn since 1968 and they finished the yr on an 9-2 ATS run. This is their 2nd bowl under HC Solich as they lost to CUSA foe SMiss 28-7 (+6) in the ‘06 GMAC Bowl. Solich is now 2-4 SU/ATS in bowl gms (5 gms at Neb). The Bobcats played on this field on Dec 4th in the MAC title game (lost to CM 20-10, +13’). The Herd faced 7 bowl teams this year and went 2-5 SU and 3-4 ATS, being outscored 27-18 and being outgained 374-320. OU went 3-3 SU, 4-2 ATS vs bowl tms outscoring them 28-27 despite being outgained 406-337. Both teams won and covered vs BG, as Marshall won 17-10 (+3) at home despite being outgained 393-346, but they did hold the Falcons to just 10 rush yds. OU won at BG 44-37 (+2’), but were also outgained 474-419 despite rushing for 216 yds. Marshall has 6 Sr’s among their 15 upperclassmen starters, while Ohio has 10 Sr’s among 17 upperclassmen starters. The Herd went 4-2 ATS on the road, incl 3-2 as a dog. OU went 5-2 ATS away from home, incl 1-2 as a favorite.
The Herd has our #95 offense avg 22 ppg and 355 ypg. They received inconsistent play out of QB Anderson. He avg’d 213 ypg (58%) with a 14-13 ratio on the season and definitely missed TE Slate, a Mackey semifinalist, who was the leading receiver (50-607-12.1-4) before suffering a torn ACL in week 10. WR Wilson stepped up in Slate’s absence and finished as the #1 receiver with 57 rec (12.4). RB Marshall was near the top of the NCAA in rushing before missing the L/2 with an ankle inj. He avg’d 117 ypg (5.1) and rushed for 11 TD’s and should be 100% here. He runs behind an OL that avg 6’5” 304. They paved the way for 3.9 ypc and allowed 23 sks (5.9%). It will be interesting to see who handles the D since Minter will have to focus on the entire squad. Marshall has our #74 defense all’g 25 ppg and 392 ypg. The DL avg 6’3” 272 and is led by ‘07 CUSA DPOY McClellan, whose numbers are down due to a nagging ankle inj and the fact that he faces almost constant double-teams. He still led the team in tfl (9.0) and had 3 of the DL’s 13.5 sks (23 total sks). LB Harvey led the team in tkls and sks. The pass D ranks #82 all’g 247 ypg (59%) with a 19-8 ratio. CB Bembry leads the secondary with 11 passes defended. Marshall has our #85 ST’s. Booker (15.8) would be #5 in NCAA in PR avg if he had enough to qualify. K Ratanamorn has been nearly perfect, making 15-16 FG (4-4 from 40+) and all 31 of his PAT.
The Bobcats have our #102 offense avg 25 ppg and 325 ypg. QB Scott started the 1st 2 gms LY before being lost for the yr (Med RS), but started 12 gms TY. Scott had two 300+ gms incl 319 vs TN (most allowed all year). Surprisingly, Ohio, under HC Solich, avg just 120 ypg rushing (3.6) with just 9 rush TD. The Cats had 3 RB’s over 225 yds but none over 600. Ohio has 3 WR’s with 500+ yds incl two 2nd Tm MAC WR’s in Price and Brazill. The OL has had its ups and downs with 2 Sr’s and 3 underclassmen avg 6’4” 291. They allowed 26 sacks (6.9%) but did have a 5 gm streak with 0 sacks and had two 3rd Tm MAC players in LT Chris Rodgers and RT Joe Flading. Ohio has our #63 def allowing 21 ppg and 354 ypg and led the NCAA with 36 takeaways. The DL avg 6’3” 280 with 4 Jr starters, including 3rd Tm MAC DT Ernie Hodge, had 12 of Ohio’s 20 sks while allowing 3.9 ypc. The LB unit has the top 2 tklrs in 1st Tm MAC MLB Keller and 1st Tm MAC WLB Renfro. The secondary has 3 Sr starters including 2nd Tm MAC CB Turner and rFr FS Moore, who was 3rd Tm MAC. They allowed 203 ypg but with just a 17-20 ratio. A big key in Ohio winning the MAC East was their ST’s which rank #11. They blocked 4 punts and had 5 ret TD’s while allowing none. Ohio had 3 ST’s All-MAC players in KR Garrett (1st Tm), PR Brazill (1st Tm) and K Weller (1st Tm), who made 20-27 FG incl 8-12 from 40+ with a L/52.
Marshall enters off their worst performance of the year as they were mauled at UTEP allowing 52 pts. The D is talented with several potential NFL’ers and this layoff will allow them to regroup. MU’s offense has topped 21 pts just once in their L/4. While we’re aware OU has gone Over the total in 3 of the L/4, OU’s offense has avg’d just 317 ypg their L/4 away from home while the D has only allowed 18 ppg in their last 8. Expect a hard hitting, low scoring game with both defenses slowing down the opposition’s rush attack.

FORECAST: Marshall/Ohio UNDER 49’ RATING: 1*

Seventh meeting between these 2 and NC is 4-2 SU and 5-0 ATS but their last meeting was in ‘00 (NC 20-17, +8). NC is 12-14 SU all-time in bowls and 5-2 SU and 5-1-1 ATS L/7. The Tar Heels are making their 2nd consec trip to here and they lost to WV LY 31-30 (+2). HC Davis is 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS in bowls. NC is making B2B bowl appearances for the 1st time S/’97-‘98. NC is 8-4 SU (7-5 ATS) with all 4 losses vs conf opp’s. Pitt is 9-3 SU and 8-4 ATS but their 3 losses were by a combined 11 pts. This is Pitt’s 26th all-time bowl gm and they are 10-15 SU and 1-5 SU/ATS their L/6. This is Pitt’s 2nd visit to Charlotte with their last visit a loss in ‘03 vs UVA (23-16 +3). HC Wannstedt is 0-1 SU/ATS in bowls. Davis and Wannstedt worked together under Jimmy Johnson at Miami (FL), Oklahoma St and with the Dallas Cowboys. These 2 both faced Conn and NCSt this year with both beating UC but losing to NC State (both 0-2 ATS). Pitt has faced 7 bowl caliber teams (5-2 SU, 4-3 ATS), outscoring them by an avg of 29-22 and outgaining them 406-301 ypg while NC also faced 7 (5-2 SU, 4-3 ATS), only outscoring foes 23-19 and being outgained 311-301. The Panthers have 11 Sr starters among their 15 upperclassmen while the Tar Heels have just 4 among their 17 upperclassmen. Both teams play their home games on grass. Pitt has gone 3-2 SU/ATS on the road TY while NC was 3-2 SU but 2-3 ATS. Pitt was 7-2 as a fav TY while NC was 3-1 as a dog. The Tar Heels will have the fan edge as this is only about 65 miles from Chapel Hill and Pitt fans usually do not travel well to bowls.
Pitt has our #22 offense avg 400 ypg and 33 ppg. Coming into the year QB Stull (#11 pass eff) had to battle for his job after last year’s poor performance in the Sun Bowl and won back the hearts of fans (booed early on) to lead Pitt to the their best record S’/02 and a shot at a BCS game. DW runs a pro-style offense (rare these days) with a slew of weapons to choose from. RB Lewis (#3 NCAA) is the workhorse for the offense, breaking the BE’s frosh rushing record and is 46 yds shy of Tony Dorsett’s school record. Hynoski is their throwback FB. Hybrid TE Dickerson (4.4 spd) has moved from RB to WR to LB in his career and leads NCAA TE’s with 10 TD’s. WR Baldwin (6’5”) avg 20.0 ypc and was 1st WR to go over 1,000 since Lee in ‘04. The OL avg 6’4” 293 with 3 Sr’s and has paved the way for 184.6 (5.0), all’g 13 sks. The Pitt defense has our #23 ranking all’g 324 ypg and 20 ppg. They lead the NCAA with 44 sacks. The DL avg 6-4 274 all’g 108 rush ypg (3.3) with 34 of the team’s 44 sks. They are led by a pair of All-Conf players in DE Romeus (8 sk) and DT Williams (15 tfl). The heart of the defense is LB Gunn (#3 tklr) who returned from LY’s neck inj. The secondary is all’g 216 ypg (57%) with a 15-14 ratio. SS DeCicco leads the team in tkls (85) and Berry is their top corner, but he missed time with inj and DNP vs WV. Pitt has our #73 ST’s ranking. Dan Hutchins handles both K and P duties and earned BE POW vs Conn. KR Saddler was leading the BE (25.7) before missing 2 gms with inj. The cover units are all’g 21.6 on KR and 9.0 on PR.
QB Yates became just the 2nd player in NC history to throw over 5,000 career yds (#2 comp, #2 TD, #2 att). NC has struggled with their running game but have been more productive as of late despite the loss of RB Shaun Draughn, who suffered a fractured shoulder vs Duke and is out for the year. Ryan Houston has moved into the starting role. TE Zack Pianalto, when healthy, has been one of NC’s top offensive weapons (missed 4 w/foot inj and most of FSU w/concussion). The O-line avg 6’5” 305 blocking for 3.7 ypc but has all’d 23 sks (6.9%). This unit is led by HM ACC LT Kyle Jolly. NC has our #90 off and #9 def. The Tar Heels are avg 24 ppg while only all’g 17. NC’s D has been solid TY and ranks #6 in total D in the NCAA (#9 w/19 int and #3 101 tfl). The DL avg 6’4” 295 and is led by 1st Tm ACC DE Robert Quinn (4.51 spd), who ranks #1 in the ACC in tfl and #2 in sks, and 2nd Tm ACC DT Marvin Austin. The rush D is all’g just 92.8 ypg (2.8). The LB’s are solid with 1st Tm ACC Quan Sturdivant and 2nd Tm Bruce Carter (#1 and #2 tklrs). NC has our #18 ranked pass eff D. The secondary is led by a pair of 1st Tm ACC in CB Kendric Burney (#19 NCAA w/5 int) and S Deunta Williams (#8 NCAA w/6 int). The Tar Heels have our #54 spec tms. NC is avg 20.1 on KR’s and 13.2 on PR’s. They all’d 21.1 on KR’s and 5.0 on PR’s.
If HC Wannstedt can properly motivate the Panthers after letting a 21 pt lead dissipate in a BCS clincher, they should come away with a win. It will be an entertaining matchup as the checklist shows Pitt with all of the offensive advantages and NC with most of the defensive edges. While we usually side with the defense, the Panthers’ stop unit is a talented bunch and will be able to slow a NC offense which has topped 21 pts just 5 times vs IA foes.

FORECAST: PITTSBURGH by 10 RATING: 3* PITT

This will mark the 3rd meeting all-time between these 2 programs (USC 2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS) but the 1st in postseason play. USC is in an unfamiliar role this bowl ssn as they lost their spot atop the P10 mountain for the 1st time S/’01. They also fell out of the Top 25 and failed to reach the 10 win plateau for the 1st time since Carroll’s 1st ssn in LA. This is USC’s first trip to the Emerald Bowl and 9th straight bowl overall (6-2 SU/ATS). Although this is BC HC Spaziani’s 1st yr, he was the interim coach for the ‘06 bowl after Tom O’Brien unexpectedly left for NC State. The Eagles will be playing in their 11th consec bowl (8-2 SU, 6-4 ATS) and will be making their way to the Bay Area for the 2nd time as they ply’d Colo St in the then “San Francisco Bowl” back in ‘03 (35-21 win). USC took on 8 bowl caliber tms TY going 5-3 SU (2-6 ATS) breaking even in the scoring dept (26-26) while actually being outgained 391-372. BC also struggled vs bowl eligible tms going 2-4 SU (3-3 ATS) being outscored 26-18 and outgained 341-263. The Trojans have 8 Sr starters and 17 upperclassmen and the Eagles also have 8 Sr starters with 16 upperclassmen. USC went 4-2 SU but just 1-5 ATS on the road while BC went 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS. Both schools faced ND in South Bend TY but with different results as the Trojans escaped w/a 34-27 win (501-367 yd edge) and the Eagles blew a 3 pt 4Q lead falling to the Irish 20-16 (outgained 352-349).
The ssn did not look promising for BC as they lost their starting QB over the summer (acad) and were w/o ‘08 ACC Def POY LB Herzlich who was diagnosed with cancer. BC finished 8-4 but for a 3rd str yr was dealt a 2nd-tier bowl. BC finished with our #69 rated off TY avg 26 ppg and 325 ypg. True Fr QB Shinskie, who is 25 and spent 6 yrs in MLB, set a BC Frosh rec’d for pass TD and pass yds. The run gm has been solid with 2nd Tm ACC RB Harris who has 7 gms with 100+ rush yds TY. The OL avg 6’6” 302 and all’d 3.8 ypc and 17 sks (5.3%). This unit is led by 1st Tm ACC LT Castonzo and 2nd Tm ACC C Tennant. BC has our #24 overall rated def all’g 19 ppg and 318 ypg. The DL avg 6’4” 266 with 3 Sr’s. The rush D is all’g 3.0 ypc and the DL has 12 of their 17 sks. With Herzlich OFY and Thompson and McLaughlin sidelined early in the ssn w/inj’s, 1st Tm ACC true Fr Kuechly stepped up (#1 tklr) finishing #1 among Fr in the NCAA in tkls. BC ranks #32 in our pass D rankings all’g 214 ypg (61%) with a 10-13 ratio. BC has our #41 ST featuring former walk-on K Aponavicius who became BC’s all-time leading scorer. BC is avg 21.0 on KR and 12.2 on PR and is all’g 19.3 on KR and 8.9 on PR’s.
The USC off has been very inconsistent in ‘09 (#34) as they have avg just 27 ppg and 385 ypg on the yr. Part of this may be due to the growing pains of true Fr Barkley who looked sharp at times (final drive in Columbus) but has also faltered (Stanford). The run gm suffered the devastating loss of Stafon Johnson early on, RB’s McKnight and Bradford took over the bulk of the carries for the remainder of the ssn. FB Havili continues to be a weapon in the pass gm but a shldr inj hampered him during the yr. With a young QB, TE McCoy became an important part of the pass gm as he led the tm in ypc (20.8) but also dealt with some inj’s of his own. The inj bug also bit the WR’s as David Ausberry and Ronald Johnson missed significant time. The OL avg 6’5” 292 (3 Sr) paving the way for 5.1 ypc while allowing 17 sks (5%). OG Byers continues to be the face of the unit due to his versatility as he was forced to take over the starting C duties for an ailing O’Dowd (has since returned). USC’s def is ranked #21, all’g 20 ppg and 343 ypg on the yr but it was a tale of 2 halves as the def allowed 9 ppg and 239 ypg thru the 1st 5 gms but gave up an astonishing 29 ppg and 417 ypg after. The DL avg 6’3” 279 (0 Sr) and has accounted for 79% (26) of USC’s 33 sks. DE Griffen has 1st RD NFL draft potential and requires constant double tms. The LB unit is the main reason for the def struggles (LY’s NFL losses). The secondary is the most veteran group of the entire def led by the hard-hitting Mays and the experienced CB duo of Pinkard and Thomas. The unit as a whole allowed 212 ypg (53%) w/a 11-10 ratio ranking #13 in our ratings. USC has our #58 rated ST’s with 1st Tm P10 PR Williams (15.4 avg, 2 TD) while the PR def was great all’g just 2.1 ypr.
Rose, Rose, Rose, Rose, Orange, Rose, Orange - those are the last 7 bowls that the Trojans have played in and making this trip to San Fran for a bowl on the day after Christmas will test Carroll’s motivational skills. It is obvious from the checklist that USC is the superior team, but the continued loss of coordinators throughout the past several years has made them beatable. BC meanwhile is thrilled to be playing this caliber of opponent and they have won and covered their last 4 bowls when they’ve been a dog or pick.

FORECAST: BOSTON COLLEGE (+) USC by 4 RATING: 2* BOSTON COLLEGE

12-26-09

12-26-09

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