12-26-09

[GoBlue]

Re: 12-26-09

LOGICAL APPROACH:

OVERALL: 8-4
SIDES: 4-2
TOTALS: 4-2

1 UNIT: 4-0
2 UNIT: 1-2
3 UNIT: 3-2




Ohio U
Marshall

On the surface this appears to be one of the less attractive matchups this Bowl season as it pits a pair of little known programs against one another. Marshall is down considerably from the days of Pennington, Leftwich and Moss and, in fact, is undergoing a coaching change after coach Snyder was forced out despite the Herd making it to a Bowl. The team will be coached by assistant coach Minter who has previous head coaching experience at the FBS level. Ohio is coached by ex-Nebraska coach Solich who has a National Title on his resume. Unlike his Nebraska teams this season's Bobcats gained nearly two-thirds of its yards via the pass. Marshall shows a similar profile. Ohio was stronger on defense and led the nation averaging 2.8 takeaways per game. Creating turnovers was not a strength of Marshall which averaged just 1.3 takeaways (# 103). Ohio was competitive in non-conference losses to Connecticut and Tennessee while Marshall was blown out by Virginia Tech and also lost to instate rival West Virginia. Both teams beat Bowling Green by 7 points - Ohio U in a high scoring contest and Marshall in a defensive battle. Marshall ended the season by losing 3 of 4 while Ohio U had a 4 game winning streak broken in their competitive loss to Central Michigan in the MAC Title game. Marshall is in their first Bowl in 5 seasons while Ohio U returns after a w season absence so we should get enthuSIAstic performances from both teams. The teams appear evenly matched as is reflected in the short line. Ohio does deserve to be the slight favorite and based on their overall defensive edges earns the nod. Ohio wins 23-20, making

OHIO U a 1 Star Selection and the
UNDER a 3 Star Selection .




Meineke Car Care Bowl - Charlotte, NC - Saturday, December 26, 2009

North Carolina ACC 8 - 4 5 - 5 - 0 plus 3 plus 3 109
Pittsburgh Big East 9 - 3 6 - 5 - 0 44 44 364

Carolina had a second straight 8-4 season under coach Davis in his third season although they ended the season with a third straight loss to arch-rival NC State that snapped a late season 4 game win streak. But that's nothing compared to Pitt which was thinking BCS Bowl before dropping the final 2 Big East games to West Virginia and Cincinnati, including the blowing of a huge 21 point lead at home with that BCS bid on the line. They are making a second straight Bowl trip and seek to atone for a 3-0 loss in last season's Sun Bowl, one of the ugliest Bowl games in recent memory. Carolina is also in a second straight Bowl and return to the same Bowl in which they lost a 31-30 heartbreaker to West Virginia last season. Carolina should have the major crowd support edge and might be the more motivated team as a result. Both teams have solid defenses, especially Carolina which allows an average of just 268 yards per game (# 6). Their offense is weak however (# 107), averaging 89 yards less per game than Pitt. Both teams had narrow wins over Connecticut and both also lost competitive games to NC State. Pitt's offense excelled at protecting the football while Carolina was strong in forcing turnovers. Pitt's edge on offense is greater than Carolina's edge on defense. The most significant stat might be Carolina allowing just 2.8 yards per rush which should force Pitt into more of a passing game than they might prefer. Given the stakes played for at the end of the regular season Pitt may be in a more fragile state of mind. The fundamentals suggest a low scoring contest with the defenses making the bigger plays. Carolina also rates the coaching edge and should be the better prepared team and better able to make adjustments. The call is for Carolina to pull the mild upset. North Carolina wins 20-17, making

NORTH CAROLINA a 3 Star Selection and the
UNDER also a 3 Star Selection .




Emerald Bowl -

Boston College ACC 8 - 4 6 - 4 - 1 plus 9 plus 7 3,696
USC Pac 10 8 - 4 3 - 9 - 0 45 ½ 43 ½ 342


This Bowl is a reward for a better than expected season for Boston College and a huge letdown for USC which normally plays in January, often for a Rose Bowl or BCS Championship. Their mindset has to be a concern especially with several key players expected to be OUT for this contest. Boston College was very limited on offense all season, especially on the road where they struggled to defeat lowly Virginia and Maryland, scoring just 19 and 14 points against that pair of 2 and 3 win foes. They also lost 20-16 at Notre Dame where USC won 34-27 earlier in the season in a game dominated statistically by the Trojans. In fact, in 5 road games BC did not reach 20 points in any of them. Against the "elite" teams they faced on the road, Boston College was outscored by Clemson and Virginia Tech by a combined 73-21 and were outgained 694-217! USC still has a solid defense but one that struggled against the more high powered offenses it faced in Pac 10 play. They should not be as challenged by BC's offense. The site should favor the Trojans playing within their home state and having numerous alums in the San Francisco area. BC had won 8 straight Bowls prior to losing last season 16-14 to a highly motivated Vanderbilt in what was a virtual home game for Vandy. USC has won 3 straight and 6 of 7 Bowls, all of which were BCS Bowls. Their last non-BCS Bowl was a 10-6 Las Vegas Bowl loss to Utah in 2001, coach Carroll's first season. USC has the clear talent edge. Although their motivation is a concern the lack of motivation is more often evident on offense where receivers may not go all out or linemen may not hold their blocks. Defenders almost always bring intensity as they just love to hit people. This game should be low scoring with USC having enough to get past a much weaker foe as Carroll and the Trojans look to 2010. USC wins 26-13, making

USC a 2 Star Selection and the
UNDER a 3 Star Selection .

[GoBlue]

Re: 12-26-09

MARTY OTTO

Best Bet: Marshall +3

Little Caesars Bowl @ Detroit O/U 49 10 am PT
The Ohio Bobcats are getting plenty of respect in the marketplace despite playing
a much weaker schedule than their opponent. Ohio’s defense was opportunistic
and forced a bunch of turnovers this year but their overall numbers were mediocre.
They finished in the middle of the pack in total yardage allowed in a down year offensively
for the MAC. This is a team that was outgained in three of their final four
games. While Marshall’s offense isn’t exactly explosive I think they have the type of
mentality and strong ground game to excel in this matchup. The big boost of getting
star RB Darius Marshall back on the field is going to pay great dividends. Marshall
led the team in rushing this season (5.1 ypc) and topped 1,000 yards despite
missing the final two games. We also get a little motivational boost with Marshall
naming former WVU and Florida assistant “Doc” Holliday as its new head coach.
No doubt his players will be looking to impress rather than treating this as just
a vacation. Finally, fading MAC teams in bowl games has proven a sound strategy
over the last few years with horrific marks of 1-11 SU and 3-9 ATS since 2006.

[GoBlue]

Re: 12-26-09

HELMUT SPORTS

Best Bet: North Carolina +3

Car Care Bowl @ Charlotte, N.C. O/U 44.5 1:30 pm PT
A large factor in lower tier bowl games is motivation and I got a sense that the
Tar Heels are the more motivated team in this matchup. Pitt senior defensive lineman
Gus Mustakas told the Post-Gazette, “It almost feels like throwing a season
away. You go so far and your goal is to win the Big East championship and you
come so close -- it really hurts, bad.” While Tar Heel coach Butch Davis had these
comments, “Our players are excited to continue their season and play so close to
home.” The bread and butter of Pitt’s offense is the strong running game led by
freshman Dion Lewis, who ran for 1,640 yards to finish third in the country. The
Tar Heels will counter with a defense that allowed only 93 yards a game to opposing
rushers, good for ninth best in the country. UNC struggled with its run game
but have been more productive over the second half of the season despite the
loss of Shaun Draughn to a shoulder injury. They averaged 170 ypg on the ground
and put up 28 ppg in their last seven games. In what is basically a home game for
a team playing its best football late in the season, North Carolina gets the nod.

[GoBlue]

Re: 12-26-09

WINNING POINTS

OVERALL: 2-4
BEST BETS:
RECOMMENDED:



Ohio over Marshall by 7
The sum of the Marshall parts was not particularly pretty this season, with the
Thundering Herd barely qualifying for this spot at 6-6, and we might even see less
than that here. With no player on the roster having ever appeared in a bowl game,
and now a disheveled coaching staff after Mark Snyder resigned following that dismal
52-21 loss at U.T.E.P., where does the leadership come from? Rick Minter will
take over as head man for this game, but was apparently not given any chance for
the full-time position (already filled by West Virginia assistant Doc Holliday), so
even his motivation is a question mark, while the other assistants have to spend as
much time looking for next year’s job as putting a plan together for this game. That
is a problem against an Ohio team that brings excellent preparation under Frank
Solich, which meant solid play in all aspects this season, including a defense that
came up with 36 takeaways, and there were 10 TD’s scored by either that defense
or the special teams. With QB Theo Scott fully healthy and a deep WR corps they
can exploit a pass defense that was 99th in the nation in yards allowed, and in selling
out their ticket allotment they get a spark from fan support as well. Meanwhile
the Marshall athletic department has projected to sell only 30 percent of their seats,
a sign that the fans are just as flat as the team may be.

OHIO 30-23.




MEINEKE CAR CARE BOWL (Charlotte, NC)
Pittsburgh over North Carolina by 9
Ordinarily just getting to a bowl game in back-to-back seasons would be a major
plus for North Carolina, as would playing in Charlotte. But we are not sure that is
the case this time. Season #3 under Butch Davis did not necessarily show any signs
of progress, especially with that disappointing loss to N. C. State in that major
revenge affair to close out, and appearing in Charlotte for the second straight
December is a letdown for a team that had hoped to take a trip. The problem is
easy to diagnose – a passing game that lost three N.F.L. draft choices from the
receiving corps did not have the replacements on campus, and the Tar Heels finished
107th in the nation in total offense, and 97th in pass efficiency. The going
does not get any easier for this group against a tenacious Pittsburgh defensive front
that finished #1 in the nation in sacks, and the time off that a bowl game brings
means that all members of that DL come in with fresh legs. And while the Carolina
offense never did find a direction, Bill Stull had a solid season to direct a Panther
offense that finished 11th in passing efficiency, and RB Dion Lewis is something
special, rolling for 1,640 yards and 16 TD’s as a freshmen. They bring a balance
and consistency that the Tar Heels lack, and that spells the difference.

PITTSBURGH 26-17.



EMERALD BOWL (San Francisco, CA)
Southern Cal over Boston College by 13
There was not a bigger disappointment in college football this autumn than
Southern Cal; after all of those years of seamlessly plugging holes, a defense that
lost eight N.F.L. draft choices did not develop, and an offense built around true
freshman QB Matt Barkley was awfully vanilla. So it begs the question as to just
what the attitude is going to be here, either totally flat because they expected much
bigger things, or passionate as a young team fights to erase the bitter memories,
and builds towards next season. And when Pete Carroll publicly stated "I can guarantee
you that they're going to play this game like it's the national championship
game" we have to at least attach some weight to it. This is still a team loaded with
top-flight talent, with inexperience the prime culprit, and the chance to have
extended practice sessions can lead to the kind of bowl outings we have seen from
the program in recent years – 6-1 SU and ATS. Boston College will play the usual
physical defense, but in two road games vs. bowl teams the offense gained only 215
yards combined at Clemson and Virginia Tech, turning the ball over seven times,
and the passing game simply is not there.

SOUTHERN CAL 29-16.

[GoBlue]

Re: 12-26-09

BANG THE BOOK ( 3-3 )

The one thing that stands out about this bowl game is its name. Wow the pizza bowl? They seem to be getting more and more interesting every year but let’s focus on the game. In this game Ohio takes on Marshall to see who the winner of the prestigious pizza bowl will be. Marshall is going through a lot as they head into this game. They do not have a current player on a team that has ever played in a bowl game and they are off a very disappointing bowl season in which they fired the head coach. Now interim head coach Rick Minter will have three weeks to get his kids ready for this bowl game.

Ohio finished the regular season 9-4, 7-1 MAC on the season. The Bobcats lost the Marathon Mid-American Conference Championship to Central Michigan, 20-10, on Friday, Dec. 4 at Ford Field. They have a very talented offense and will be up for a big challenge against the Thundering Herd. The Herd’s defense has actually gotten worse as the season has progressed and they have allowed 36 points per game in the last three. That should get better with time to rest but with inexperienced kids in a bowl game and an interim coach the Bobcats have the edge. The Thundering Herd are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. MAC and the Bobcats are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 non-conference games. Take the cats and surrender the small number.

Bowl Pick: Ohio -2.5

When Pittsburgh was up 21 points against Cincinnati in the game last week that would decide the Big East Championship they have envisioned a much bigger bowl game then the Meineke Car Care Bowl. Then the defense collapsed and the Bearcats won the Big East crown and are playing Florida in a BCS Bowl game. The Panthers will have to settle for a trip to Charlotte where they will take on the North Carolina Tar Heels. For the Tar Heels this trip to Charlotte is a welcomed one. They also struggled down the stretch but will have a home field advantage and play here for the second time in two years. Last year they sold out this stadium as they played Boston College and had an edge in the crowd. Although Pittsburgh travels well they should have it again this year against the Panthers.

While Carolina has an excellent defense they have big problems on offense and at times if the deep threat is eliminated can have trouble moving the ball at all. The Heels are off a game where they passed very well but that is not a good thing in this spot. The Tar Heels are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game. The Panthers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite and they are 4-0 ATS in the last four games after a straight up loss. The Panthers still have plenty to look forward to as they can win ten games this season. Dion Lewis is a beast in the backfield and will be too much for the Tar Heels to handle as the Panthers win in Charlotte

Meineke Car Care Bowl Pick: Pittsburgh -3


USC has come a long way this season, and not in a good direction. They started off the year ranked high in the polls and had National Championship aspirations. That soon changed to BCS bowl aspirations after an upset loss to Washington. After a few more stunning blowouts especially in a loss to Stanford, the Trojans find themselves in the Emerald Bowl. For Boston College they had wins on the season and were 6-1 at home but they never really managed to get that signature win. In all of the high profile games that always seemed to come up short losing to Florida St and Notre Dame, two proud franchises that were very beatable. The road record was not great so getting the Emerald Bowl was a good pull for the Eagles and can now get some serious momentum for next year if they pull off the upset.


The Trojans don’t want to be here. Pete Carroll will say all the right things and the Trojans are the better team but this game means nothing to them. Even if they blow out the Eagles they will not be able to get into the top of the BCS controversy. The Trojans are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall, 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite and 1-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. The Eagles on the other hand find themselves in a good spots for this game. They are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0, 7-3 ATS vs. a team with a winning record and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 bowl games as an underdog. This is too many points for the disappointing Trojans to try and cover.


Emerald Bowl Pick: Boston College +9

[GoBlue]

Re: 12-26-09

Fairway Jay

Best Bet: USC -8

Much will be made about USC’s potential lack of motivation for this contest, as the Trojans have been playing in premier bowl games each of the past seven years. Yet playing in their home state with a superior coach and motivator should be enough intangibles for the Trojans to roll. Once the players hit the field, USC will prove their class over what I feel is a much weaker Boston College outfit. USC has faced the superior schedule and offensive and defensive units. While the Trojans’ offense was lackluster at times, they still ran the ball for over 5.0 ypc. Boston College’s defense was solid for much of the year and that could technically keep them within striking distance,however,the offense is going to struggle against USC’s superior speed and strength. Boston College turned the ball over 24 times against less skilled and tal- ented teams and failed to score 20 points in any road contest this season.They also were gashed against their only two quality road opponents; at Clemson and Virginia Tech.The Eagles may be excited to face such a prestigious program but we see this matchup favoring USC across the board and a double-digit victory a likely result

[GoBlue]

Re: 12-26-09

THE SPORTS REPORTER:

OVERALL: 2-4
BEST BETS: 0-1
RECOMMENDED: 1-0



MARSHALL over OHIO by 2
Defensive coordinator Rick Minter will coach Marshall up to and through this game, following
the resignation of Mark Snyder at the end of the regular season. Raise your hand if you’ve
heard that situations like this are difficult for a team to overcome, then watched that team
win its bowl game. Star running back Darius Marshall should be back in action after an ankle
injury held him out of the Herd's last two games. The offense gained 475 yards vs. SMU in
the regular season’s penultimate affair, without Marshall the running back, and also without
TE Cody Slate, lost for the season shortly before that game. Marshall the kid rushed for 117
yards per game, 13th in the nation. Ohio's last five opponents have rushed for an average of
158 yards. The Marshall offense can and should move the chains. Minter is fully aware of the
team’s biggest problem, which is being the Blundering Herd. “What this program lacks is discipline…”
“We're a very poorly conditioned football team…” That sets the expectations low
and gives Minter an opportunity to pad his resume for his next job. "If we win the kicking
game, against the best kicking game in the MAC, we have an opportunity to be even-steven
in that area and win the game," he says. Ohio has gained the most turnovers in the nation
over the course of the season (36). But QB Theo Scott was obviously hurting in the MAC Title
game, when the offense generated only 10 points.

MARSHALL, 24-22.



NORTH CAROLINA over PITTSBURGH by 1
Jimmy Johnson disciples Dave Wannstedt and Butch Davis have the same basic philosophy
– lead with a physical defense that huffs and puffs and stops the run, have a strong offensive
line and a play-action attack. They are as likely to change what they do as leopards are
likely to change their spots. It’s not a big game (see the name of it), therefore Wannstedt has
a chance to win it, although this is the same guy who prepared his team to be shut out in a
pre-New Year’s bowl game last season. Hey, at least the defense only allowed 3 points to that
Oregon State team. UNC’s offense ain’t much – 4.8 yards per play, 17.5 first downs per
game. "I've got to prove myself in a way. I know I can play better, and my teammates know
I can play better. I've kind of got to prove it all on December 26," says North Carolina quarterback
T.J. Yates. But the defense usually shows up, and North Carolina’s entire coaching
staff is the group more likely to get creative in the lead-in, as well as make half-time adjustments
that produce better results. When favored against real opponents, the Pittsburgh
defense is prone to not getting the big stop necessary.

NORTH CAROLINA, 24-23.




USC over BOSTON COLLEGE by 8
Over-achievers take on under-achievers in what is sure to be a defensive battle. BC’s defense
is stout and comes in a bit underrated. They’ve had to be good because the offense is inconsistent
– especially when they can’t get RB Montel Harris going. Trojan freshman QB Barkley
has thrown at least one pick in his last 8 games – one of the reasons why his squad has
mustered over 21 points just once in the last 5 games (the one was earned on a meaningless
last minute TD vs. UCLA). Barkley’s supporting cast must step up and make plays while
the kid plays game manager. The USC backfield could be impacted by RB Bradford’s ankle
tweaking during bowl practice and by an investigation into RB McKnight’s use of an SUV.
Eventually the Trojan hoops team will probably take the fall for that one – but it might be a
short-term distraction. As for the Eagles and their freshman QB, Shinskie can be a turnover
machine at times – cranking out fumbles and interceptions like a Ford plant. USC’s defense
fell short of prior teams’ standards, but what they did well was bring the heat to opposing
signal callers. If the running game isn’t working for BC, Shinskie will be left running for his
life. The Pac-10 team definitely has the talent edge here, but for a team used to playing in
Rose Bowls, will they be motivated? Pom-pom Pete Carroll thinks so – but even if not – there
are too many 5-star high school recruits on the roster to drop this one.

USC, 24-16.

[GoBlue]

Re: 12-26-09

MONEYMAKER




OHIO -3 OVER MARSHALL
MARSHALL/OHIO OVER 49
This matchup features a well balanced Ohio team that should have no problem scoring on a weak Marshall defense
(99th in yards allowed). Ohio has a productive offense, as well as an opportunistic defense and explosive special teams.
Herd defense came up with 36 takeaways this year, and the team scored 10 TDs by the defense and special teams
combined. Perhaps the most significant Ohio edge is in the emotion and focus they’ll bring to this game. They’re excited
to be here, and have already sold their allotment of tickets while Marshall will be lucky to sell 35% of theirs. The
Marshall coaching staff is in a bit of disarray, with head coach Mark Synder resigning after the Herd’s season ending
blowout loss to UTEP. They’ve already tabbed a replacement, which leaves Rick Minter—who’ll coach the team for this
game—as a little more than a caretaker. Ohio is the better team with the better focus and they should win and cover
easily.

[GoBlue]

Re: 12-26-09

SPORTS WAGERS

Ohio –3 over Marshall

Well, if momentum means anything at all then one would have to give the Bobcats a significant edge here. Ohio went on a significant run to end the season, posting a 7-1 mark in its final eight games while the Thundering Herd lost four of its last six games and that includes a rather disturbing 52-21 loss to close out the season against UTEP. What’s also unappealing about the Thundering Herd is its pedestrian offense that struggles miserably to score points. Ion fact, they scored 21 or less in seven of its 10 games and a month layoff is unlikely to help what ails them. Aside from being whipped by Va Tech, Marshall was also crushed by both West Virginia and Tulane. The Herd went 4-4 in the conference and just 6-6 overall. It’s also worth noting that despite not allowing a ton of points the Thundering Herd defense was shaky at best. They were completely shredded in terms of yards allowed (almost 400 yards per game) and were fortunate to not allow about another 10 points against per game. Meanwhile, the Bobcats have never won a Bowl game in three previous attempts. They have to know this is a great chance to do so and there’s no excuse for not pulling it out. They had some good losses this season to UConn by 7 and to Tennessee by 9. In a crucial game against Temple in the second last week of the year they crushed the Owls 35-17. The Bobcats have a big edge at QB, its defense was stellar all season and let’s not forget that they also have all the aforementioned momentum on its side too. Play: Ohio –3 (Risking 2.06 units to win 2).

[GoBlue]

Re: 12-26-09

Pick 'n' Roll: Today's best NBA bets

Washington Wizards at Minnesota Timberwolves

A nasty knee bruise seems to be the least of Gilbert Arenas’ troubles this holiday season.

The Washington Wizards quirky point guard is the middle of a firearms investigation in which the team says Arenas had weapons in his locker. This is a violation of the NBA’s rules on firearm possession and the league and the franchise is looking into the matter.

Arenas said the only reason the guard brought the guns to the Verizon Center was to keep them away from his children.

"It happened like Dec. 10. Right after my daughter was born," Arenas told ESPN. "I decided I didn't want the guns in my house and around the kids anymore, so I took them to my lockbox at Verizon Center. Then like a week later, I turned them over to team security and told them to hand them over to the police, because I don't want them anymore. I wouldn't have brought them to D.C. had I known the rules. After my daughter was born, I was just like, I don't need these anymore."

Arenas does have a prior weapons charge stemming from an incident in 2003 when he was caught driving with a concealed weapon on a suspended license. He was suspended for the2004-05 season opener after he pled guilty to the chargers.

While a punishment, if any, will likely come later in the week, Arenas’ situation and injury are an extra heaping of distractions while the Wizards try to stay focused after the holiday break.

Pick: Minnesota


Philadelphia 76ers at Utah Jazz (-8, 205)

The Sixers better have enjoyed be home for the holidays because starting Saturday, they hit the road for a five-game swing – opening in Utah.

Philadelphia is struggling, winning just twice in its last 10 games. The 76ers’ most recent defeat was a tough loss to the Washington Wizards this Tuesday in which Philly was outscored 33-19 in the fourth quarter, losing 105-98 as a 2-point underdog. The letdown was so hard, the team cancelled practice Wednesday.

"For me, it was an emotional loss," coach Eddie Jordan told the media. "We talked about the fourth quarter, and I wanted to settle down myself, come in and have a terrific day [Thursday], be a little more even-keel."

It’s been a hectic month for the Sixers. December brought a 2-8 record (3-7 ATS), the return of Allen Iverson and left the team losing nine of their last 10 road contests heading into the weekend. That frustration boiled over during practice this week, where thing got a bit “chippy”, according to guard Lou Williams.

"It depends on the mind-set of the guys," Williams told reporters of the upcoming road swing. "I'm sick of losing. I know a couple of other guys who are sick of losing. We got to get everybody on the same page as far as what we want to accomplish. The season isn't in the wash yet. We still can put some games together and make a run."

Pick: Utah

[GoBlue]

Re: 12-26-09

Ats lock
10 nc +1.5
3 usc -7

Michael Cannon

Ohio -3 vs. Marshall, at Detroit, MI

I am now 50-35-3 with my last 88 free plays!

Take Ohio minus the points in the Little Caesar’s Pizza Bowl this afternoon.

A lot of uncertainty surrounds the Marshall football team today. Coach Mark Snyder resigned following a 52-21 annihilation by Utep in the season finale. That led to the hiring of West Virginia assistant coach Doc Holliday.

But Holliday won’t take over until after the bowl season, which means Rick Minter will be the interim coach for the Herd today.

Not sure what kind of message he can get through to his players when the entire coaching staff, himself included, will be worrying about where to find a new job.

In any event, Ohio should be able to get the job done here. Marshall’s offense ranked near the bottom of the nation, so the Bobcats should have no problem keeping them in check.

Take Ohio minus the points as they grab the win and cover.

3? OHIO







Drew Gordon

Boston College +7' vs USC at San Francisco, CA

26-16-2 roll L44 Free Plays! For today's complimentary play, we're looking at the Boston College/Southern California match up.

For a powerhouse like Southern California, the Emerald Bowl is an insult. It's not even a January Bowl game, and quite frankly, I believe the Trojans could care less about this match up or Boston College... This is not what the coach Carroll's "5? recruits" signed up for, plain and simple.

On the other hand, the Eagles had to battle their way into the postseason, and see a real chance at notoreity, if they can pull off what everyone in the world would consider a monumental upset. Boston College surged down the stretch, going 4-2 SU, including road wins at Virginia & Maryland, two tough opponents who needed wins and were playing at home. How did they do it? Using the same formula they're going to use to cover tonight's match up: DEFENSE.

You see, while the Trojans may have the bigger names on defense, its the Eagles stop-unit who's playing better football, allowing just 19 ppg on 284 total yards over their L3 games. For comparisons sake, USC is allowing 27 ppg on 370 total yards over the same span! Boston College's offense is no juggernaut, but they're more than capable of playing a run-heavy/milk the clock kind of game behind stud RB Montel Harris, who's 4.8 yards/carry is no accident! The Trojans D has been getting skewered the L2 months, allowing almost 29 ppg over their L7 games!

Bottom line, time to wake up Trojan-backers... You're team is in a rebuilding year! Matt Barkley has a bright future, but for the time being, you're offense is not good enough to lay this many against a rock-solid Boston College defense that's playing great football right now. In the end, the PAC-10 is down this year and it'll show, as one of their best burns their backers once again (1-6 ATS L/7 games) here tonight.

Take Boston College plus the points over Southern California in this college football match up.

2? BOSTON COLLEGE





Joel Tyson

I know all about how the Trojans are NOT playing in the bowl they really want to be playing in, but I have to tell you, they are hands-down the more talented team, and I feel pretty sure the cream will rise to the top in this game.

The line keeps coming down in this game, and after watching Boston College look HORRID in their 2 road games against bowl-bound teams - losing to both at Clemson and Virginia Tech - I just have a feeling the Eagles will lose touch in this game and not stay within the impost.

The Trojans are 6-1 both straight up, and against the spread in their last 7 bowl games.

I will lay the wood with SoCal!

4? USC TROJANS






Charley Sutton

Bad call yesterday as UNLV can’t take care of business and ends up taking the loss.

I’m not losing again tonight as I’m taking USC in the Emerald Bowl against Boston College.

Boston College rolls into this game having failed to cover in 3 straight games.

Consider, too, Boston College has gone just 1-3 ATS its last 4 games on the road. The Eagles have also failed to cover in 5 of their last 6 games at neutral sites and have failed to cover in 5 straight games in December.

It’ll be another tough road for BC as the Trojans get over in this one.

3 ? USC






Jay McNeil

The Magic didn't give the performance I was expecting being home on Christmas against Boston, but I'll bounce back quickly as I turn my attention back to college football!

I think the Panthers have been a little underrated all season. At least I haven't given them enough credit. They lost three games this season by a combined 11 points, and was less than a minute away from claiming the Big East title against Cincinnati.

While Pitt's 45-44 loss to the Bearcats had to be gut-wrenching, I think coach Dave Wannstedt will have his team ready to give a strong effort today as he has been pounding into the Panthers that they can be the first Pitt team to win 10 games since junior QB Dan Marino led the Panthers to an 11-1 record in 1981.

Pitt has a superior offense with Bill Stull, who was named all-conference this year, and running back Dion Lewis, the Big East's offensive player of the year, who has rushed for 1,640 yards (136.7 per game) and 16 touchdowns.

North Carolina has one of the nation's top defenses, but I think the Panthers have enough weapons to get the job done today, and Pitt's 26th-ranked defense should be able to shut down the Tar Heels' offense.

The Panthers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite. I think they cap off their season with a big victory today. Take Pitt to win by at least a touchdown.

3? PITTSBURGH






Brett Atkins

I'm 10-7 with my last 17 free selections and today I've got a comp winner coming on the pro hardwood as I'm going with the Thunder to get the job doen against the Bobcats in Oklhaoma City.

Oklahoma City just went on a three-game road trip that tested them in Houston, Los Angeles and Phoenix. The Thunder went just 1-2 on the trip but played their asses off in all three and showed they are right on the verge of moving into the upper echelon of the Western Conference.

That’s why I’ll lay the chalk with them today as they have had a couple days off to recover from the trip and return to their home court as a relatively short favorite. The Thunder are putting up 99.1 points per game at home this season while Charlotte really struggles to score on the highway, managing just 86.4 points a game on the highway.

I really like the Oklahoma City trio of Jeff Green, Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook. These guys went into Phoenix on Wednesday and scored 74 points in the 117-113 win over the Suns with Durant leading the way with 38 points.

The Bobcats are on ATS slides of 1-7 against Northwest Division teams and 4-12 when they get three or more days of rest. Meanwhile, the Thunder are on ATS runs of 7-3 against the Eastern Conference, 5-1 as a home favorite and 5-0 when they get two days off.

Lay the chalk and play the Thunder!

4? OKLAHOMA CITY








Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on Atlanta Hawks -6.5

Atlanta is 20-8 SU & ATS on the season and I'll back it here against a Pacers team that is really struggling. Atlanta already owns an 11-point win over the Pacers this season and it will be hungry here after getting mopped up by Denver last game. In fact, plays on road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are outscoring opponents by 3+ points/game, after a blowout loss by 15 points or more, are 31-8 ATS the last 5 seasons. Take the Hawks.




LT Profits

Boston College vs USC

The USC Trojans are coming off of the worst season in the Pete Carroll era, and one has to question their enthusiasm for this minor bowl vs. the Boston College Eagles after uncharacteristically showing signs of quitting late in the year.

The Trojans went 1-6 against the spread in their last seven games while incredibly allowing 32.5 points per game in the six non-covers. Furthermore, even the game they did cover during this stretch was deceptive, as they had just a 14-7 lead over UCLA until scoring two touchdowns in the final 1:30 of the game, accounting for the 28-7 final, including inexplicably throwing a 48-yard touchdown pass with 44 seconds left.

As if that is not bad enough, that lackadaisical USC attitude has spread to the classroom, and as a result, the Trojans will be short at least three starters here due to academic problems. Additionally, one other starter is definitely out with injury (safety Josh Pinkard), and starting wide receiver David Ausberry is questionable at best with a leg injury. Just about the only good news may be that running back Joe KcKnight may have barely avoided suspension.

While USC appears to be indifferent and in disarray, Boston College went a surprising 8-4 this year and they are thrilled to have this opportunity to knock off a marquee program. The Eagles also match up well with the Trojans defensively, as BC allowed only 19.4 points per game during the regular year, surrendering just 3.0 yards per rush and 6.2 yards per pass attempt. This unit can give the young USC skill position players fits.

Finally, do not forget that ACC underdogs have gone an incredible 25-8-1, 75.8 percent in Bowls since 2000, and that Boston College had won eight straight bowl games before losing by two points to Vanderbilt this year. They may or may not start a new streak here, but we do not see BC losing by more than a field goal.

Pick: Boston College +7





Stephen Nover

San Antonio -2' at MILWAUKEE

Nailed Friday's free play on the Heat outright at New York. For Saturday, I've got a comp play on the Spurs-Bucks game.

The Bucks were riding high when they played the Spurs for the first time this season. Milwaukee was 9-3 at the time, its best start since 2001-02.

But San Antonio crushed Milwaukee at home, winning 112-88 on Nov. 23. Since then, the Bucks have gone 3-12.

Milwaukee has lost its last three games at the Bradley Center. The Bucks traditionally play San Antonio tough, covering eight of the past 10 times. However, this is bad timing for Milwaukee.

The veteran Spurs have had two full days of rest. They are off a shocking home loss to severely banged-up Portland in which they were bet up to double-digit favorites. So the Spurs won't be taking Milwaukee lightly. This is an important game for them.

The Spurs out-rebounded the Bucks, 46-29, in their earlier meeting. They held hotshot rookie guard Brandon Jennings to 12 points on 6-of-21 shooting from the floor. The Spurs won that matchup without Manu Ginobili, who is back playing.

Jennings had a hot first month, but has tallied off badly since them. His scoring average has gone down six points from 25 points to 19 during the past 15 games.

The Spurs currently rank ninth in defense giving up less than 97 points per game. The Bucks are averaging just 89.5 points in their last four games.

2? SAN ANTONIO






Jeff Benton

Boston College vs. USC -7, at San Francisco

For Saturday’s free play, I’ll head to the Emerald Bowl in San Francisco and play USC minus the points against Boston College.

I wouldn’t recommend the Trojans, even for a free play, if this was one of Pete Carroll’s more veteran squads, one that would undoubtedly be down in the dumps to be playing in the Emerald Bowl on Dec. 26 instead of a marquee January bowl game. But this year, Carroll’s squad is very young and very raw, and I fully expect that he’s informed his troops that this game is essentially a tryout for next year. In a nutshell, I think Carroll will dangle some pretty big carrots in front of his players to ensure they show up for this game motivated and determined to carry on the pride USC tradition.

Assuming that’s an accurate assessment, USC will destroy Boston College, because athlete for athlete, this is a huge mismatch. As it stands, the Eagles’ four losses came against the four best teams it faced (Clemson, Virginia Tech, Notre Dame and North Carolina), and three of those were doubled-digit blowouts by an average of 23.3 points per game. The other was a 20-16 loss at Notre Dame. Well, USC went to Notre Dame a week earlier and won 34-27 (and they were leading 34-13 in the fourth quarter).

The Trojans have always come to play in bowl games, winning and covering in six of eight since Carroll took over. That includes winning the last three Rose Bowls (over Penn State, Illinois and Michigan) by a combined score 119-49.

Bottom line, this pointspread is a reflection of two things: 1) USC tailback Joe McKnight’s status is in doubt because of an eligibility issue, and 2) many believe the Trojans have no desire to be in this game. My response to both topics: McKnight is special, but he’s replaceable, especially against a mediocre squad like Boston College, and I don’t agree with the assessment that USC will pull a no-show today. They never have in a bowl game since Carroll took over, losing only the 2005 national title game in the final seconds to Texas 41-38 and the 2001 Las Vegas Bowl (in Carroll’s second season) 10-6 to Utah. The Trojans’ six bowl wins under Carroll? All of them routs by at least two TDs with an average victory margin of 21.8 ppg.

8? USC






Dominic Fazzini

North Carolina vs. Pittsburgh -2 at Charlotte, N.C.

I underrated the influence USC point guard Mike Gerrity was going to have Friday night as the Trojans took control early and hammered UNLV 67-56, sticking me with a loss on my complimentary selection. But I'm still 45-31 over the past 76 days, including a run of 28-18, and I will rebound today with a big winner!

Pittsburgh has two top-notch players leading its offense with all-Big East quarterback Bill Stull and running back Dion Lewis, the conference's offensive player of the year.

Yes, North Carolina ranked sixth in the nation in total defense (267.8 ypg) this year, including ninth against the run and 15th against the pass. But I believe the Panthers, who averaged 33.2 points per game have enough offensive talent, with six players being named all-conference, to put up enough points today to come away with a relatively easy victory.

Tar Heels QB T.J. Yates has been very inconsistent this year, throwing 12 passes and 14 interceptions, and he was the 10th-rated passer in the ACC. And UNC's top rusher, Ryan Houston, only averaged 3.8 yards per carry, and cracked 100 yards just once this season, gaining 164 against a mediocre Duke team on Nov. 7. He didn't have more than 76 in any other game.

The Panthers are tough on defense, too, ranking 26th in the nation (323.9 ypg).

Pitt lost three games by a combined 11 points this year, including a 45-44 gut-wrenching loss to Cincinnati in the final minute that decided the Big East championship. But even with that defeat, I think Panthers coach Dave Wannstedt will have his team up for this game, as he has preached to his team that a win would make it the first Pitt squad to win 10 games in a season since Dan Marino led the Panthers to an 11-1 record in 1981.

Many of the ATS trends favor the Tar Heels today, but I just think Pitt has more talent and enough motivation to win this game. Take the Panthers to win by a touchdown or more.

3? P







Chuck O'Brien

Take Ohio and lay the field goal in its Little Caesars Pizza Bowl against Marshall.

Much more interested in siding with the 9-4 Bobcats over the 6-6 Thundering Herd, as Ohio is in enjoying one of its finest seasons in school history and coming off an appearance in the Mid-American Conference championship game, while Marshall stumbled to the finish line in the mediocre Conference USA.

The Bobcats, who can tie a school record for victories in a season with a win today, split their first four games, but two came against quality opponents UConn (23-16 at home) and Tennessee (34-23 on the road), and both those squads are playing in really good bowl games. After the 2-2 start, Ohio ripped off seven wins in eight games to earn the MAC East Division title and a date with Central Michigan in the MAC championship game. Although the Bobcats, who were really banged up, lost that contest 20-10 – and make no mistake, Central Michigan was head and shoulders the class of the MAC this year – they covered as a 13½-point underdog. Thus, Ohio enters this game having cashed in nine of its last 11 games, including the last four in a row.

Marshall ended the regular season losing five of eight games, failing to cover in the final three. Four of the five losses came against opponents – East Carolina, West Virginia, Central Florida and Southern Miss – that went bowling this year (and both Central Florida and Southern Miss already got destroyed in their two bowls). Meanwhile two of the three wins came against Conference USA bottom-feeders UAB and Tulane.

Ohio has the better offense (25.4 ppg) than Marshall (21.8 ppg) and the better defense (21.3 ppg allowed) than Marshall (24.9 ppg allowed). And while the Bobcats have covered in seven of nine overall and seven of nine non-conference games, the Thundering Herd are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 outside of Conference USA and 1-4 ATS in their last five against MAC opponents. Ohio, much healthier now than in the MAC championship game, wins this one by at least a touchdown.

4? OHIO






Tony Weston

Brutal call on the Lakers yesterday as the Cavs take care of business in Los Angeles.

I’m redeeming myself today as I’m taking Pitt over North Carolina in the Meineke Car Care Bowl.

Coming into this game Pitt might very well have been one of the most underrated teams in the country, sitting at 9-3 SU.

The Panthers lost their 3 games by a combined 11 points, with that final loss coming by a point against undefeated Cincinnati, which will be playing in a BCS bowl game.

Consider that Pitt has gone 5-3 ATS its last 8 games and has covered in 7 of its last 10 games overall when installed as a favorite.

The Panthers will get over again tonight and cruise to an easy victory over North Carolina.

3? PITTSBURGH

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[GoBlue]

Re: 12-26-09

Steve Duemig
Saturday
20 Dime - North Carolina

A few weeks ago, Pitt was looking at playing in a BCS game after possibly winning the Big East. As we know they ended up losing a heart breaker to Cincinnatti late in the game in a gut wrenching Pitt end of season loss. Hard to imagine them being excited about going to Charlotte to play in the Meineke, versus being in Miami for the Orange Bowl. NC on the other hand is basically playing a home game and has the defense to stop anything really that Pitt can throw at them. NC really has no offense but time off for bowl practices works wonders with QB's and Yates should take advantage of that extra time. Bowl handicapping key #1 is motivation and doubt very seriously that Pitt has it and we know that NC will have it in front of the home crowd. A battle of two defenses and two former NFL coaches to boot. There is not a lot of respect for the Big East, especially in Bowl games. Go Heels!!

5 Dime - Ohio

Not a game that we will look at too seriously but it is the first game on Saturday so for those looking for small action, this might be the game for you. Interestingly enough there is a little early support for Marshall here even though it is the least bet game on the board. The line has been moved down from the opener of 4.5 to it's current 3, yet the percentage of spread bets are almost exclusively on Ohio. That's the thing about teams involving the MAC and a former Mac team Bookmakers in Vegas are scared to death of Mac money and they tend to move the line and react rather quickly. Ohio certainly has the better team components in this matchup, and the better coaching matchup. Frank Solich has really done a nice job in stabilizing this football program. His team had a lot of injuries when they played against C, Mich in the WAC Championship game. He has them back healthy now including his stud QB Theo Lewis who can do it with his hands and his feet. Marshall is going through the big post season coaching change where the head coach was asked to resign and the new coach is not yet there and they are being coached by an interim coach in Rick Minter, Ohio leads the nation in TO's forced as in 36.. Marshall on the other hand is horrible in taking care of the football. They have a -41 turnover ration. That is too big to look past in this game. I've seen too many teams simply go through the motion when there is an interim coach involved. Let's buck the trend here and go worth the better team and the favorite for a change.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-26-09

Kelso 100 unit = North Carolina

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-26-09

Tim Trushel
20* north carolina (cfb)

regular/ marshall (cfb)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-26-09

Ats lock
10 nc +1.5
3 usc -7