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6* W ido w W iseg uy BC/USC E mer ald B owl S uref ire on USC -7(+102 at 5dimes)
USC has a chance to set the record for most bowl wins in the history of college football Saturday. Pete Carrol's team will be ready to go knowing this, and they won't let up against Boston College. Hard to see too many Golden Eagle fans making the trip clear out to San Francisco, CA for this bowl game, so the Trojans will clearly have home-field advantage. Boston College is just 2-3 S.U. & 1-4 ATS in road games this season, scoring a miniscule 14.0 points/game. Their offense isn't nearly as explosive as the Trojans, and they won't be able to score enough points to keep up with USC Saturday. The Eagles are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games in December. The Eagles are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games. USC is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 bowl games. That adds up to a 16-2 (89%) ATS Angle backing the Trojans. Take USC and lay the points.
5* W iseg uy N B A B oun ce-Ba ck B LOO D B AT H on L.A. Lakers -6(-110 at sportsbook)
After getting embarrassed on Christmas Day in a 15-point loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers, the Lakers take their anger out on the Sacramento Kings tonight. This play also falls under a system that is 31-8 (80%) over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to back road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points, which would be the Lakers here, a team that is outscoring opponents by 3+ points per game coming off a loss by 15 points or more. There's no question that these good teams like the Lakers know how to bounce back from a bad loss. Take the Lakers and lay the points.
FREDDY WILLS
Kings +7 (3.5 DIME** NBA POD) 16-11-1 ats L28 NBA PODs
The Lakers had a tough game yesterday against the Cavs and now they go on the road to play an uptempo Sacramento team that is hot on 0 days rest. The Lakers are 2-6 in their last 8 on 0 days rest and are 2-4 ATS this year. It comes at a worse situation as the Lakers starters combined for more than 160 minutes they are 0-4 ATS when that happens. I really look for them to struggle here again the last time they were home and then on the road on 0 days rest vs. a fast paced team was Denver and they lost 79-105.
Sacramento is a very good rebounding team and fly under the radar they are 10-4 straight up at home. They just lost to Cleveland at home, but in OT while the Lakers just got man handled by the Cavs. The Kings are 9-0 ATS in their last 9 following a straight up loss by 10+ which they did in OT to the Cavs. They are also 9-1 ATS following an ATS loss. While the Lakers fall under the situation of being on 0 days rest where they by far play their worst defense, the Kings come in on 2 days rest where they are 24-7-1 in their last 32 including 6-0-1 ATS this year where they play their 2nd best defense.
4-Unit Play #706 Take New Jersey +9 Over Houston (7:35 p.m. EST, Saturday)
3-unit Play #708 Take Chicago -2 ½ Over New Orleans (8 p.m. EST, Saturday)
3-Unit Play #716 Take Utah -7 Over Philadelphia (9 p.m. EST, Saturday)
The Kings host the Lakers in a great sport for Sacramento Saturday night at Arco Arena. The Lakers enter off last night home showdown against Lebron James and the Cavaliers with a bigger game on deck next at Phoenix knowing they are 6-11 ATS on the Saturday night road off a Friday night home game. That fits perfectly into the fact that the Kings are 5-0 ATS off a loss versus unrested foes this season. The Kings are also 8-1 SU and ATS in in this series when the Lakers played the day before. With Sacramento off a 16-point home loss and 9-4-1 ATS at home, and the Lakers just 2-11 ATS on the road without rest in games before the Suns, we'll grab the points here tonight. We recommend a 3-unit play on Sacramento.
double-dime bet 11 MON / 12 TOR Under 6.0 bodog
Analysis: For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this matchup is on the "under":
Undefeated so far on a season-high seven-game road trip, the Canadiens look to avenge one of their worst losses of the season Saturday night against thei€r Original Six rival.
Montreal (18-18-3) is 2-1-0 against Toronto (13-17-8) this season, but lost the last matchup 3-0 at home Dec. 1 as rookie Jonas Gustavsson and journeyman Joey MacDonald combined to make 26 saves. It was the third time the Canadiens have been shut out this season.
Jaroslav Halak has given up a total of four goals while starting each of the last three games; Halak made 46 saves against the Hurricanes, one short of the career high he set in a 4-3 overtime win over the Thrashers on Monday. He’s 2-1-0 with a 2.33 goals-against average in three games at Toronto.
On the other side of the rink: The Maple Leafs have been held to two goals or fewer in four straight contests, and are 1-3-1 after winning eight of their previous 11. Toronto is coming off its fourth straight road loss, 3-1 against the New York Islanders on Wednesday night.
Expect another lack-luster offensive performance tonight.
Also, keep in mind that the total has gone "under" the posted number in four of the Leafs last six at home overall.
Bottom line: I expect the Canadiens to continue to play well (even if Carey Price gets the nod tonight) and for Toronto's offensive issues to once again rear its ugly head; when also taking into account these O/U trends, the sharp money in this one is on the UNDER!
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: On the bay
Posts: 273
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KING CREOLE
CFB Total Sat, 12/26/09 - 8:00 PM ƒŠ
double-dime bet 217 Boston College / 218 Southern Cal Under 46.0 bodog
Analysis:
8:00pm ET / EMERALD BOWL / USC Trojans vs BOSTON COLLEGE Eagles
2** Play on: UNDER the TOTAL
Put the USC Trojans in a PRE-New Years Day Bowl... and they don't give a s**t. For you ATS fans, we note that USC has played EIGHT pre-New Years Day Bowl games. They have gone a PERFECT 0-8 ATs in this game! Also, we note that they have gone a PERFCT 0-4 O/U in these games in the last 14 seasons. Sharp players already know that the Trojans are 'trending UNDER' as of late. USC has gone 13-28-1 O/U as favorites in the last 4 seasons. Also 6-17 O/U after allowing < 100 yards rushing in their last game. Meanwhile, the EAGLES of Boston College are 1-6 O/U as underdogs of 3 to 10 points... a PERFECT 0-5 O/U in their last 5 NON-conference games... and 1-4 O/U in Neutral site games.
In our database collection, we have created an Over / Under set for ALL Bowl games played on the SATURDAY after Christmas. And these games have also 'trended UNDER' in the last few years. 70% UNDER to be exact in the last 4 seasons. And when the OU Line is LESS than 50 points in these games, the results are 1-6 O/U.
USCs defense is not anywhere the dominant unit like they have been. But this is still a good defense, and they put up respectable defensive numbers vs. high powered offenses in the Pac-10. They should be able to contain BC. Trojans gave up single digits 5 times. 3 of those 5 teams were AZ State, UCLA, and Cal. You'll notice, I compared UCLA AND AZ State to Boston College.
USC's defense had a couple of bad games where their defensive stats got messed up. Those were games against big time offenses like Stanford, Oregon and Oregon State giving up 55, 47, and 36. Notre Dame has a pretty good offense they scored 27. Arizona's offense is okay, they scored 21. All of these offenses are much better than Bo~ston College's.
Considering the way BCs offense played down the stretch and how USC has shut down poor offenses, I think it may be tough for BC to hit the 17 point mark, or it will be very close.
I think best case scenario: USC scores around 24 and best case scenario BC scores around 17. That is a best case scenario score of 41, with a total set for 45 basically.
With USC having offensive suspensions, and a freshman QB, they shouldn't all of the sudden click and go off offensively. And with BC struggling to score down the stretch, having a freshman QB themselves, and traveling to the west coast, they shouldn't all of the sudden click and fire on all cylinders.
Neither of these freshman have done anything to suggest that they will get their teams and offenses to fire vs. opposing good defenses. Both teams have inconsistencies. It just looks like this may be an ugly, sloppy game
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