12-27-09

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-27-09

MARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK: 6-3 IN BOWLS

3* BEST BET
Kentucky over Clemson by 3

3* BEST BET
Buffalo over ATLANTA by 3

4* BEST BET
Jacksonville over NEW ENGLAND by 4

5* BEST BET
Baltimore over PITTSBURGH by 11

NFL Totals BEST BET:
3* Giants OVER
4* Bengals UNDER
5* Colts UNDER

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-27-09

King Creole | NFL Total Sun, 12/27/09 - 1:00 PM ƒŠ

double-dime bet 103 SEA / 104 GBP Over 41.0 Bookmaker.com
Analysis: Green Bay’s offense comes into this one in ‘HIGH’-gear. After last week’s 73-point game in Pittsburgh (final score: 37-36!), the Packer offense is averaging 30 PPG in their last 5. And put ‘em at home in DECEMBER as b-i-g non-div HF’s of > 7 points, and these Cheeseheads have gone 11-1 O/U in the last 12 seasons. Speaking of that shoot-out against the Steelers, we note that All NFL home teams off a SU road loss in which they scored AND allowed 35 > pts have gone 22-8 O/U s’1983... and 12-2 O/U vs non-div opponents.

There’s a big line swing in this one as Green Bay goes from a dog role to h-u-ge home favs. 7-1 O/U: All non-div HF’s of 13 > points playing off a SU loss as a dog of 4 < pts.

The Seahawks are already active in a KILLER ‘2009-specific’ OU Systems which has gone 18-3 O/U (on page three of this week's Playbook Totals Tipsheet).

That UGLY home loss to Tampa Bay puts Seattle in HIGH-scoring company.
19-6-1 O/U s’1995: All NFL teams playing off a SU home loss of 17 > points in which they were a favorite of 6 > points. And in this decade, UNDERDOGS have gone 8-1 O/U in this situation.

When these two divisions get together vs each other, a ton of points usually occurs. 19-8-1 O/U L4Y: All NFC WEST teams (Sea) playing a NFC NORTH opponent (GB). When the OU line is < 43 pts, the results are 10-2 O/U. It’s no surprise therefore, that Seattle is 6-1 O/U vs the NFC North while Green Bay is a PERFECT 6-0 O/U in their last 6 games vs NFC West opponents. And when playing off a SU road loss BUT an ATS win, the Packers have gone 14-2 O/U!

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-27-09

NORTHCOAST
POWERPLAYS

PRO PLAY OF THE WEEK
4* San Francisco 49ers

NORTHCOAST BOWL ISSUE
4* Clemson Tigers

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-27-09

Marc Lawrence


triple-dime bet 130 WAS 7.0 (-110) Bookmaker.com vs 129 DAL
Analysis: Play On: Washington Redskins (Game 130)
We recommend a 10-unit play on Washington

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-27-09

Matt Rivers
Matt Rivers was the winningest sports handicapper ever on a large network of handicapping sites before being promoted to The Show at OffshoreInsiders.com. He has a free winner on the Ravens vs. Steelers.
Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers staved off playoff elimination with that unreal last second, literally, comeback win last week against the red hot Packers. Now the Steelers are at home once again and face a familiar foe in the Baltimore Ravens.

Just about a month ago Mike Tomlin’s squad went into Baltimore without their quarterback and took Ray Lewis and the Ravens to overtime as the 8 point dog. Dennis Dixon did an admirable job but when the chips were down the third stringer threw a poor interception in the extra session and that was it in the end.

Pittsburgh should once again be without their key defensive cog in Troy Polamalu which isn’t great but Ed Reed is banged up for them and may not play either.

In the end we are looking at an extremely physical game like usual for these teams and with their season once again on the line I can’t help but back the world champs at Heinz Field. Both Hines Ward and Santonio Holmes are winners who will not go down without a fight and no matter how bad the defense has regressed at times this is still the Steelers defense.

When you put winners up against a wall more times than not they come through for professional bettors. Sure the games against the Raiders and Browns were inexplicably horrific but Pittsburgh showed their mettle last week and has no choice but to show up today and flex their muscles one more time.

I do like Ray Rice and Joe Flacco and the visiting Ravens as they are a semi elite team that happened to lose a lot of close games to quality competition this season but I don’t see them sweeping the season series and dropping the Steelers to an unfathomable 1-5 in the division for the season.

It’ll be a brutal smash mouth game for sure and in the end the Steelers will do enough to pull this thing out and save their season one more week.

Matt Rivers sports pick: 23-17 Steelers

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-27-09

MREAST NCAAB SUNDAY BOOKIE BUSTER

The oddsmakers really love this Uconn team, and keep making them lay huge numbers against teams they are struggling with. Iona has already won fairly easily at both Creighton, and Providence, and played Florida St. to the wire, and took Baylor to overtime. This is not a team that should be getting mid-teens worth of points vs a Uconn team that can't put away anyone. You can go down the list, Maine,Central Florida,Hofstra,William &Mary, and Colgate, Uconn is so overrated it is insane. They have covered just 1 game all season. They have been posted as a 10+ favorite 5 times, and stand at 0-5 ATS, and have yet to come within 9.5 points of the cover. I'll go with Iona here.

#521 IONA GAELS @ #522 UCONN HUSKIES 1PM EST

PLAY ON #521 IONA GAELS +16 -110 FOR 3 UNITS

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-27-09

Street Rosenthal of HandicappingTrends

*500 Kentucky +7 (NCAAF)

*500 Buffalo Bills +9 (NFL)
*300 Houston Texans +1 (NFL)
*200 Arizona Cardinals -14 (NFL)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-27-09

KELSO

100 UnitsPackers (-14) over Seahawks
1:00 PM -- Lambeau Field
GREEN BAY PACKERS (9-5) -14 over Seattle Seahawks (5-9) Prediction: Green Bay by 28-35 Starting Time: 1:00 TV: FOX, DirecTV 712
Mostly cloudy with a 30-percent chance of snow. Winds blowing from the Northwest at 5-10 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 30.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-27-09

STEPHEN NOVER

Sunday Tripleheader

100-Dime Total of the Year: Over Ravens/Steelers
60-Dime Value Chalk of the Year: Falcons
20-Dime Bowl Bonus: Kentucky

100-Dime OVER Baltimore/Pittsburgh - Baltimore-Pittsburgh matchups are traditionally low-scoring with plenty of running and fierce hitting.

But that's not going to be the case in this game. Both teams will be attacking vulnerable secondaries.

Baltimore's secondary has serious issues with two of their top three cornerbacks out, along with star safety Ed Reed. These spots are filled by role-playing backups not capable of shutting down Ben Roethlisberger and his bevy of good receiving threats.

Pittsburgh's defense hasn't been the same since losing star safety Troy Polamalu. The Steelers were 4-1 with 10 takeaways when Polamalu has played. They are 3-6 without him with just six takeaways.

Joe Flacco has become a much better quarterback than he was as a rookie last season. His completion percentage has gone from 60 to 64 percent and his touchdown throws have gone up from 14 to 19. He also has thrown fewer interceptions than last year.

Making it tough on the defenses, too, is they have to respect their opponent's ground attack. Ray Rice is one of the best all-purpose backs in the NFL, while Pittsburgh's Rashard Mendenhall has developed as an emerging force. He needs just 22 yards to reach 1,000. He's averaging nearly five yards a carry.

Weather can be a problem this late in the year in Pittsburgh. But while there is a chance of snow, temperatures are supposed to be in the 30s with winds just 5-10 mph.

60-Dime Atlanta Falcons - Despite really having no chance of making the playoffs, the Falcons desperately want to win this game and their finale against Tampa Bay on the road next week so they can finish 9-7.

If that occurs, the Falcons would finish above .500 for two years in a row, something they've never accomplished in their 44-year history.

The Falcons are so serious about that they're risking franchise quarterback Matt Ryan, who has a toe injury. They also haven't ruled out star running back Michael Turner, although he has an ankle injury. They are willing to gamble on these key player's long-term health in order to reach this goal.

Turner isn't likely to play, but his replacements can gouge a Buffalo defense that ranks last versus the run.

But this isn't just a play ON Atlanta. It's also a huge play AGAINST Buffalo.

The Bills won't make the playoffs for the 10th straight year. They've played their three division rivals during the past four weeks and finish at home against Indianapolis in a game that could get a lot of media attention if the Colts are in position to go undefeated.

So this is a real flat spot for the Bills traveling to a dome stadium in a warm-weather city after a hard-fought home division loss to hated rival New England.

The Bills have been decimated by injuries and now they're down to third-string quarterback Brian Brohm. If you thought Ryan Fitzpatrick and Trent Edwards were bad, wait until you see Brohm. He makes Fitzpatrick and Edwards look like Peyton Manning and Tom Brady.

Brohm was a second-round pick of the Green Bay Packers two years ago. He was so bad - trouble reading defenses, holding the ball too long and being unable to adjust to the speed of the pro game - the Packers cut him.

Packers general manager Ted Thompson almost never cuts a rookie. For him to cut a second-round draft choice after just one season tells you all you need to know.

Making it really tough for Brohm, in this his first NFL start, is Buffalo has a makeshift offensive line because of multiple injuries.

20-Dime Kentucky Wildcats - If Clemson could have stopped Georgia Tech on the final drive in the ACC title game, the Tigers would be competing in a BCS bowl instead of this Music City Bowl in Nashville.

Clemson isn't excited about this game and neither are its fans. Ticket sales have been 4-to-1 in favor of Kentucky.

The Wildcats are a very live 'dog. They are battle-tested being in the SEC where they faced many of the top-skill position players in the nation. Despite being in the toughest conference and dealing with multiple injuries, the Wildcats still managed seven victories.

Now the Wildcats are healthy. One of the players they have back from injury is senior quarterback Mike Hartline. He gives the Wildcats a passing presence to go with mobile Morgan Newton.

Kentucky has a balanced attack. The Wildcats averaged 193 yards rushing per game and their offensive line only allowed 15 sacks. Derrick Locke and Randall Cobb give Kentucky a solid 1-2 running punch. Cobb averages 6.4 yards per carry and also is an excellent pass catcher. Locke averages 4.8 yards per run and is a dangerous kick returner.

Underdogs have been golden so far in the bowls. This matchup should prove no exception. Kentucky has won its bowl game each of the last three years. The Wildcats are 9-2-1 against the spread in their last 12 non-conference games. Clemson, by contrast, has failed to cover the past four years in its bowl games, losing straight-up the past three seasons.

The Wildcats are excited about this game. The same can't be said for Clemson. If Kentucky can keep dangerous C.J. Spiller in check and not commit turnovers, it should win this game straight-up.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-27-09

Steve Duemig
Sunday sweep
30 Dime - Redskins

This is a classic end of season over inflated visiting favorite lined game. There are SOOOOO many red flags in this one it is not even funny. As we all know, things don't always turn out the way we want them to or think they should. If we could win all of them we would all own our own island somewhere in the South Pacific. We don't own our own island, at least I don't....yet so we have to dance with what brung us and that is sticking with basic handicapping, especially with the type of red flags we are seeing in this one. First off Dallas is in a must win, so that doesn't mean they are going to win, especially on the road against a division rival. Remember Dallas had to win the season finale last year on the road and got bombed!!! What other flags do we have. Over inflation of the line! No way should Dallas be laying a TD on the road against a division opponent. Hell the Giants were only laying 3 in this very same spot last week. Are we now to believe that the Cowboys are that much better than the Giants?? No they aren't! Washington looked so bad last week and that is what people are remembering and Dallas is coming off of beating the Saints. The Cowboys felt disrespected going into NO and rightfully so, but that's no the case in this one. All of these factors are contributing to the inflation of the line. Now add in our old favorite of "reverse line move" 83% of spread bets and ALL of the "junk bets" are on Dallas, yet the line went down from 7.5 to the current position. Boys and girls. This is the epitome of LINE VALUE and + EV

10 Dime - Texans

think we all could agree that this game is between two evenly matched teams right? Glad you agree. We have two "must win" teams playing in a game where the loser will be eliminated from playoff contention, and therefore the opener in the game was strictly the HFA for Miami at -3. Therefore creating the "even" match on a neutral field. What is it then that we look for in these types of match ups. First off, who is better in the trenches? EVEN Who has the edge at QB? Houston does. Who has the more explosive play makers? Houston does. Who is more experienced? Neither really. Miami went to the playoffs last year based off of two things. Turnover ratio which was big time in their favor last year and NOT this year. As a matter of fact it is the opposite. The Dolphins also had the experienced QB in Pennington last year. They have Chad Henne this year. But the biggest reason we are going strongly with the Texans is something that I noticed yesterday while watching the money flow and the lines on my screen. At 3:35 yesterday afternoon the line was at Miami -3 where it had been all week. Then at 3:36 the line was all of a sudden Miami -1 !!!!! Do you know how much money it takes to move off a 3 with two perceived even teams??? A TON!! It's either that or someone who is highly respected as a bettor pulled the trigger on the Texans in a big way. It was probably both. The next thing that I then looked for was some buy back in case it wasn't what I thought it was. There wasn't and so I am convinced that someone either has some info that we don't have or they are willing to trust their handicapping in a BIG WAY. I'm not proud, and I know what to look for and why a line moves like this. Want the latest example of this type of line move and how it did? You don't have to go back very far. Christmas night is when the Chargers were getting 3 from the Titans. During the day it went crashing down to +1. Who won that game?????? WE will "follow the money " on this one.

5 Dime - Ravens

The Steeler were all but out of it until the last second thrwo by Big Ben rose them from the depths of missing the playoffs to still being alive, barely. But that game showed me a lot about what the Steelers really are this year. Not all that good folks. They continue to give up 4th quarter leads. They got so bad in protecting the lead that their opwn coach put his head on the line by trying an onside kick to avoid not giving the ball back to GB. We all know what happened there and GB did get the ball and they proceeded to march down the field for the apparent game winning score. But Big Ben had other plans and he was able to rally the troops. Simply put though folks, good teams do not continue to do these types of things in the 4th quarter. This is no longer an accidental occurrence, it is what the Steelers are. The Ravens on the other hand have won when and beaten teams while sitting on the edge of extinction as well. But they are winning with authority and they ARE THE BETTER TEAM. The wrong team is favored in this one based only on the Steelers being the Super Bowl champs. Bah!!! Oh and one other thing. The explanation that I gave you for the above Houston- Miami game is the same reason in this one. One of the books went off the -3 yesterday and as I write this, it is still under the 3 and with no buy back it tells me what I need to know. I think that it must be pointed out though that the opener was -2 and then moved to -3. That could be two reasons, first, positioon taking in case it rose above the 3, or to get it out of the teaser window Ravens are not only the better team here, they are who the better bettors like as well.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-27-09

GoodFella | NFL Side Sun, 12/27/09 - 4:15 PM –

double-dime bet 121 DEN 7.5 (-110) Bodog vs 122 PHI
Analysis:
((NFL GOW Play))

Yes Denver is coming off a HOME LOSS to the Oakland Raiders last week--and I believe we are getting some "line value" due to that result. Denver is FLAT OUT battle tested and they have beaten several top teams this year--as they have a home win over New England and THREE very impressive ROAD WINS over Cincinatti, Dallas and San Diego...and the Broncos have faced 8 teams with a winning record this season. Denver controls their own destinyˆ for the wild card spot and a trip to the playoffs--and they have the #3 ranked defense in the NFL, and more importantly for this particular matchup--is Denver ranks #2 in the NFL against the pass....which is clearly the Eagles strength. Philly has been crusing along...piling up huge numbers along the way recently..but taking a closer peak at the 5 game win streak...we see the ONLY TEAM with a Winning record among those 5 Wins is the NYG. Philly has a solid "D" as well--but they rank just 12th in the NFL and Denver has some prolific weapons on offense as well with Marshall and Moreno and QB Orton has really stepped up this season and has been playing very well. I really like the points here with Denver, as I like the way they matchup with Philly and I like that Denver NEEDS THIS GAME more than Philly does. Also of note is; long time All-Pro Brian Dawkins makes his return to where he played for 13 years and you know he will play very well in this spot. I just see GREAT VALUE with Denver here and I wouldn't rule out a outright win from Denver either. Grab the points with Denver here fellas!

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-27-09

Psychic

Private Members Area

12/27

NFL

2 unit Oakland +3
3 unit Houston +2 (best bet)
3 unit New Orleans -14 (best bet)
3 unit Ny Jets +4.5 (best bet)
4 unit Washington +7 (major)
5 unit Denver +7 (wiseguy)

CFB

3 unit Clemson -6.5 (best bet)

[YoungTRK484]

Re: 12-27-09

Thanks for the comp play from Offshoreinsiders, I'm a fan of them. Any luck on the paid plays from the site? Thanks always Zak.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-27-09

Spartan

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

3*San Francisco
2*Arizona
2*Oakland
2*Houston
2*Giants

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-27-09

3GWINS
SUNDAY ACTION:

NFL FOOTBALL:
10* GAME of the Week: BALTIMORE +3
5* NY Jets +4
4* Carolina +9
4* TB +14

COLLEGE FOOTBALL:
5* Clemson -6.5

NBA & College HOOPS:
passing

ICEMAN HOCKEY:
4* Vancouver +125

Pittsburgh's defense is in big trouble here as they have been torched for over 20 points in 4 of their last 5 games, including 27 or more against the Raiders, the Chiefs and the Packers. You start seeing the Raiders and Chiefs putting up 27 on you, then you know you have problems especially in the secondary. This Baltimore Ravens team is playing very well as they come off 48-3 destruction at home over the Lions, and a 31-7 win over the Bears. Already this year on the road they have beaten the Chargers 31-26 and for all intents and purposes let wins get away at Minnesota, and New England in tight games.Baltimore is the better team. They have a better offense and they are playing very well down the stretch. This Ravens team appears primed to make some noise heading into post-season. Baltimore won first meeting with defensive formula that can work again.