12-27-09

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-27-09

The Boooj

NCAA Football-
50 units on Clemson (-6.5) over Kentucky :grrr:


NFL-
20 units on Miami (-1.5) over Houston
10 units on Jacksonville (+10) over New England


NBA-
10 units on Cleveland (-7.5) over Houston

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-27-09

Sean Higgs/ Game Time Sports Advisors


Play Title 10* GAME OF THE MONTH
Play Selected Point Spread: 4/-110
Take the NY Jets today. I pretty much liked the Jets all week. They are going to pound and pound and keep the ball away from Peyton with their run game. If this was week 4, the line would be 13, but here, the line has dropped. The public goes down in flames here. No way Manning stays out there the entire game vs a relentless Jets defense. This is the Jets Super Bowl in every aspect of the word. A must win. An undefeated opponent. This is what a player lives for. Jets get it done OUTRIGHT in Indy. NEW YORK JETS 10* GAME OF THE MONTH

Play Title 10* Houston Texans
Play Selected Point Spread: 1/104
10* Houston - We like the Texans here. They have beaten the Fish 3 stright years and 4 of 5 lifetime match-ups, with the fish winning a pre-season game. But the main reason we like the Texans is we think the fish are going to be drained. They fought all the way back to tie Tenn and then lose in OT, a game in which Henne did not play well. Now the pressure in on Miami again, with them being home. We said in the beginning of the year Houston has a breakout year, and they need this win and some help to get one step closer to the playoffs.


Play Title 5* Carolina Panthers
Play Selected Point Spread: 9/-119
5* Carolina - Maybe losing Delhomme was the best thing for the team. Matt Moore seems to be getting more comfortable with the offense, and looked very composed last week against Minny. The Carolina D looked awesome last week, and maybe they believe Moore is the future and want to start winning and building confidence for next year. A loss by the Giants pretty much sends them home. Peppers and company know this, and Fox likes beating the Giants, so look for Carolina to deliver a nice present to Manning and Tom.

Play Title 4* Cleveland Browns
Play Selected Point Spread: -3/-115
Going with the Browns at home. Raiders off a huge division win over Denver, but the value lies with Cleveland. Mike Holmgren will be taking control of the club, so every player is extremely motivated to show the new boss what they have. Browns have been playing solid football the last few weeks, and against the Raiders, they should continue that trend. Cribbs is an unbeliveable special teamer who will be responsible directly or indirectly for at least 3 scores by the offense. 4* CLEVELAND BROWNS


Play Title 4* AKRON
Play Selected Point Spread: -10.5/-104
Going with the Zips at home. A good revenge spot for the home team who is more balenced and a better defensive club. Valpo has been brutal on the road. We will take Akron to get it done. 4* AKRON

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-27-09

Al DeMarco
Sunday's Play 15 Dime - Arizona Cardinals

Is it hard for you to believe the Cardinals are such huge favorites – despite the opposition today – considering they’ve already clinched the NFC West title and realistically are the longest of long shots to earn a No. 2 seed and a 1st round bye in the playoffs? And laying over two touchdowns is even harder to swallow when you consider how poorly they’ve played the past two weeks on the road, losing at San Francisco in that 7-turnover Monday night debacle and then blowing a 17-0 halftime lead at Detroit last Sunday, needing a Kurt Warner TD pass with 1:54 remaining to squeak out a 31-24 win over the lowly Lions.

With all that being said, I love them today for three reasons. First, coach Ken Whisenhunt said immediately after the Detroit game that he is playing to win the season’s final two games; no starters will be rested. Smart man that Whisenhunt; he knows the importance of going into the playoffs on a roll.

Next reason I like them: Remember last year’s 0-2 close when the Cards got crushed by Minnesota and New England in the second- and third-to-last weeks of the regular season by a combined 82-21 score after clinching the division crown. Yes, they did make a phenomenal run to reach the Super Bowl, but Whisenhunt and the players are smart enough to realize that such things are often lightning in a bottle that isn’t easily recaptured.

Final reason I’m in the Cards’ corner today? It was just three Sundays ago in their last home game they put the hurt on Minnesota, manhandling Brett Favre and Vikings. If you can do that to Minny, you can certainly do the same – if not worse – to St. Louis.

Don’t be fooled by the Rams’ 16-13 home loss to Houston last week at home. The Texans dominated that game but allowed St. Louis to stick around and make it look good on the scoreboard because of their redzone inefficiency (one TD, two FGs in four trips inside the 20).

It doesn’t matter who quarterbacks for St. Louis today, rookie Kent Null or ineffective Kyle Boller, this is still an offense averaging about 11 points a game. The offensive line is in tatters with two new guards, and running back Steven Jackson is bothered by an assortment of injuries that have contributed to his 47- and 82-yard outings the past two weeks.

Defensively, the Rams are just what the Cards need for a playoff tune-up. Warner should carve up a pass defense that’s generated just 20 sacks in 14 games while allowing 65% completions. No surprise the secondary has been scorched for 19 TDs while coming up with only eight picks.

Warner should also get some ground support from Beanie Wells, who is coming off a career-high 110-yard effort against Detroit. The Rams also don’t stop the run, yielding 140 yards per game and 4.5 yards per carry to opposing backs.

As I said, if ever there was an ideal spot for a team to get a much needed playoff tune-up against an ideal opponent, it’s today in Glendale as Arizona rolls 37-13.


Strategy Note:

You've heard me discuss this many times on TV and radio; I don't believe in buying half points on any numbers other than 3, 4 or 7 so don't for a minute think I'm recommending buying the hook on 14 1/2 (if that's the price you get today). Seriously, a lot of handicappers say to do that but I've always been of the opinion that's it's a waste of money; when the line is this big the favorite should win by a blowout margin or the dog should cover easily; there should be no in-between. And since I'm expecting and calling for a blowout, there is no need to be wasting extra money foolishly buying a hook today.

[thedegen]

Re: 12-27-09

Ken Weitzner opinion from eog.

2* NYG -7
1* KC +13.5
1* NYG u42.5

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-27-09

Executive

400 Pitt
250 Marshall

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-27-09

Harry Bondi

4* Pittsburgh
3* Houston
3* Denver

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-27-09

Robert Ferringo NCAAB


0.5-Unit Play. Take #722 Seton Hall (+4) over West Virginia (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 26)

0.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 149.5 West Virginia at Seton Hall (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 26)


0.5-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #722 Seton Hall (+9) over West Virginia (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 26) AND Take ‘Under’ 154.5 West Virginia at Seton Hall (3:30 p.m.)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-27-09

Chris James Sports

2* Arizona Cardinals -14.5
2* Philadelphia Eagles -7
2* Washington Redskins +7

3* Kentucky +6.5

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-27-09

Lenny Del Genio's 25* NFC Game of the Year is on New Orleans - 14 hosting Tampa Bay.

Reason: In the case of Tampa Bay, this is simply a case of playing the wrong opponent on the wrong week. Not only is this the Bucs' fifth road game in seven weeks, but they also have the unenviable task of drawing the Saints, in the Superdome, the week after they suffered their first loss of the season. Dallas showed that the key to beating New Orleans is to pressure Drew Brees. Well, TB ranks near the bottom of the league with just 26 sacks. QB Josh Freeman has a TD-INT ratio of 2-9 and the rushing attack ranks last in the league. New Orleans can essentially name the score here. They beat the Bucs 38-7 in Week 11, a game we cashed the Saints. They are still 13-6 ATS when laying points and their point differential of +185 is a NFL best. Last week, TB got just 24 points off five Seattle turnovers. They are 0-6 ATS off a road game this season. The last two seasons, the Saints are a perfect 7-0 ATS off a SU loss. They are also a perfect 6-0 ATS if they lost the turnover battle by two or more the previous week. Finally, there's a system that says to play against a team playing with revenge, if they are coming off a SU win by two touchdowns or more as an underdog. As alluded to in the promo, this system is 43-17 ATS & that's over the last 25 NFL seasons! New Orleans is our 25* NFC Game of the Year.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-27-09

ASA NFL pick - Sun, Dec. 27 - Under New England

ASA NFL - 3* Under 44, Jacksonville vs. New England, Sunday at 12:00 PM CST



Both of these teams are still in contention for playoff berths so they will each bring their "A" game here. We tend to lean toward the "under" late in the year when teams meet up that are battling for playoff spots. We don't have to worry about the defenses take the "day off" and offenses opening it up. Teams in this spot usually stay conservative on offense.
New England has been just that in recent weeks. Quite conservative on offense. They have put up just 17, 20, 21 & 17 points over their last four games. Tom Brady is banged up with a sore shoulder and ribs. Bill Belichick will want to protect his franchise player going into the playoffs. Thus, we expect a heavy dose of the run game here. The last two weeks, vs. Buffalo and Carolina, Belichick has relied HEAVILY on the running game with 74 attempts in those two games combined. WR Randy Moss is becoming less of a deep threat with his moping attitude as of late. Brady attempted only 23 passes last week in their 17-10 win @ Buffalo. The weather forecast calls for rain and heavy wins in Boston on Sunday, thus the ground game will factor in even more for both sides.

The Jags offense is far from explosive. They average just 19 PPG and only 13 PPG on the road. David Garrard is a solid QB, however he has almost zero home run threats on the outside. Jacksonville's best offensive player is RB Maurice Jones-Drew and they will ride him until he drops. Jones-Drew ran the ball 27 times vs. Indy in their last game and those numbers will probably rise here. Head coach Jack Del Rio is definitely not a "pass first" coach. In fact, the Jags have stayed under 30 pass attempts in 6 of their last 8 games.

Due to the windy conditions expected and significance of this game, expect it to be played close to the vest. Run, run, run which eats up the clock. The Jags defense has allowed more than 21 points only twice in their last seven contests. The Pats stop unit has allowed more than 21 points only four times this entire season. Jacksonville has stayed under the total in four of their last five. New England has stayed under in four straight. We will stick with that and grab the under here.




ASA 4* NFL - Sun, Dec. 27 - Over Pittsburgh

ASA's NFL - 4* Over 42.5, Baltimore vs. Pittsburgh, Sunday at 12:00 PM CST

Check back Monday after 4:00 PM CST.

This game has 'over' written all over it as these two teams have changed their offensive philosophies and have become pass first, run second ball clubs. Ben Roethlisberger is averaging over 34 pass attempts per game and has 22 TD's on the season compared to just 11 INT's and is completing over 67% of his passes. If we throw out the Steelers game against the Browns a few weeks back which was played in bad weather conditions, Roethlisberger has had a QB rating of 109+ in three straight games.

Baltimore is very similar in that regard offensively as they've relied heavily on their passing game this season and young QB Joe Flacco. Flacco is attempting over 32 passes per game and in the first meeting of the season versus the Steelers he was 23 of 35 for 289 yds and 1 TD. The Ravens offense started out the season by scoring 30+ points in 5 of their first seven games but then went on a scoring drought for five games in a row. They now seem to be back on track after scoring 31 and 48 points in their last two games.
We mentioned the first meeting of the season which had a final score of Baltimore 20, Pittsburgh 17 and that game was an OT thriller so how will they get to 42 points in this game you ask? Remember the Steelers didn't have Big Ben for that game nor did they have their #2 QB in Charlie Batch so they started 3rd stringer Dixon who was 12 of 26 for just 145 yards in the game. Without their full play book to work with the Steelers designed a very 'vanilla' game plan for their young QB to keep him out of trouble. That changes this weekend.

The Steelers have a solid history of playing 'over' versus AFC teams as they have gone 'over' the total in 19 of their 27. At home the Steelers are 50-22-2 'over' their last 74. Yes, both teams have solid defenses that rank in the top 11 in Total defense but both also have offenses that rank in the top 13 in Total 'O' and average 22.5 and 25 points per game. Both teams have plenty to play for and we expect a high scoring shootout with a final combined point total much higher than the set number of 42. In fact, our predictive math model projects a number of 49 on this game and a long term 'total' system of ours which is 43-13 'over' the last 56 times its applied supports our thinking. Best of luck.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-27-09

Lenny Del Genio's 25* AFC North Total of the Year is on Over 42 in Baltimore / Pittsburgh Game.

Despite plenty of evidence to the contrary, the oddsmakers are treating this rivalry as if both teams were still defensive stalwarts. They are anything but. Both have "good" defenses to be sure, but no longer really top five caliber thanks to injuries. It just cannot be overstated how much the loss of Safety Troy Polamalu hurt the Steelers. With him in the lineup, they are 4-1 straight up with 10 takeaways. Without him, they are 3-6 SU with just six takeaways. They rank just 10th in points allowed after being first in that category last season. Last week, they were carved up by Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay to the tune of 36 points and 436 yards. Baltimore's defense commits an ungodly amount of pass interference penalties, which of course puts the opposition in good position to score. It also bears mentioning how prolific both teams offenses are. Both average 21 first downs per game. Pittsburgh is now a passing team. They have over 600 passing yards the L2 wks compared to just 140 yards on the ground. The same can be said of the Ravens, as they throw the ball 57.7% of the time compared to just 44% last year. Eight of the last nine meetings here in the Steel City have gone Over. Baltimore is 13-4 Over as a road underdog.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-27-09

RAS
Sac St

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-27-09

kyle bales plays

15 carolina/n.y giants over 42.5 10 baltimore+3 10 kentucky+6.5 10 toronto-3 10 san antonio-3 10 akron-10.5

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-27-09

VR (so far)

121 DEN 7.5 (-120) Bodog vs 122 PHI
Analysis:

**** NFL 4* GAME OF THE MONTH ****

BUY the 1/2 POINT to +7.5....VR

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-27-09

Smooth 44...

CFB 8:30PM EST
219 Kentucky
220 Clemson
TOP PLAY: KENTUCKY +7
PREDICTION: KENTUCKY 27 CLEMSON 23

NFL 1:00PM EST
117 Jacksonville Jaguars
118 New England Patriots
TOP PLAY: JACKSONVILLE +10
PREDICTION: NEW ENGLAND 24 JACKSONVILLE 21

1:00PM EST
113 Carolina Panthers
114 New York Giants
NFL GAME OF THE WEEK: CAROLINA +9
PREDICTION: CAROLINA 23 NY-GIANTS 20

1:00PM EST
111 Houston Texans
112 Miami Dolphins
TOP PLAY: MIAMI ML -115
PREDICTION: MIAMI 27 HOUSTON 17

1:00PM EST
109 Buffalo Bills
110 Atlanta Falcons
TOP PLAY: BUFFALO +9
PREDICTION: ATLANTA 20 BUFFALO 16

8:20PM EST
129 Dallas Cowboys
130 Washington Redskins
TOP PLAY: WASHINGTON +7
PREDICTION: DALLAS 20 WASHINGTON 17

**HOOPS SHORTLY