12-29-09

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-29-09

Chris Jordan

Tuesday's winner ...




400? TEMPLE OWLS - This is one team I've had the pleasure of watching and making money with from time to time this year. The Owls won nine straight before an 18-point loss at Ohio for the MAC East championship, and trust me when I tell you that loss is still stinging. And there is nothing more the Owls would love to do than blast the over-rated Bruins who lucked their way into a Bowl game by finishing 6-6.



Admittedly, this is a UCLA team whose defense has been strong, particularly against the run; but it's the offense that has had some issues. The numbers don't lie:







The Bruins are 98th with their rushing game



The Bruins are 52nd with their passing game



The Bruins are 88th with their offense overall



The Bruins are 99th with their scoring offense







Now, that all being said. I'd be remiss if I failed to mention Temple's passing game is one of the worst in the nation - it ranks 112th. And the overall offense was 89th in the country. But that scoring offense was 35th in averaging 30.2 points per game. And get this, two of its biggest outputs this year - 40 and 56 points - were on the highway.



Its defense has been the bread and butter for the most part, and when it turns in a solid performance, the offense steps up and takes advantage of the opportunities. And tonight in this game, I'm thinking the Owls are going to be more appreciative of their bowl presence, than the all-mighty Bruins, who will look at this like a slap in the face game they had to travel across the country for.



UCLA golden boys having to leave their warm and fuzzy California dorms for ice-cold Washington D.C.? The boys from Philly are used to this weather, and will be looking to hit the Bruins as hard as they can in the first quarter to shut them down.



That's the key for Temple: Not to play tentative and to act as if it belongs in the postseason with a program like UCLA. Do that in the beginning, and the momentum is mine right off the bat.



Guys, enjoy this first winner of the first fiscal week of 2010 (my explanation of this is on my homepage, in case you missed it). Let's start the year off much better than how the fiscal year 2009 ended!!! Glad to have you aboard.



If you haven't looked into getting your 365-Day Package - this is the week to do it!!! The first day of the FISCAL YEAR 2010 begins today, so get on board. Last year my clients made more than 9,100? of net profit for the Fiscal Year 2009.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-29-09

ROBERT FERRINGO

2.5-Unit Play. Take #543 Missouri State (-3) over Evansville (8 p.m.)
Evansville may be the youngest team in the Missouri Valley this year and their key pieces are all freshmen or sophomores. Missouri State has been a real nice surprise here this year and they have already gone on the road and picked up some true road victories. They nearly nabbed another one their last time out in an OT loss at improving Arkansas. The only teams Evansville has beaten have been rated No. 258 or higher (and that No. 258 team was in OT) and five of their wins were by teams rated 306 or worse. They aren’t pathetic. They played some teams kind of tough. But they aren’t big, they don’t force turnovers, they foul a lot, and they aren’t a great shooting team. I will go with the bigger, more experienced, more proven commodity here. I think it’s going to be a long year for the Purple Aces.

2-Unit Play. Take #525 Rhode Island (-3.5) over Drexel (7 p.m.)
Drexel is just a terrible offensive team. They have about zero skill at that end. They just want to pound people and make games a grinder. That makes them a good home dog, but they need to be catching points. To cover here they basically have to beat Rhode island. Drexel has one fluke win over a team ranked in the Top 150 (Northeastern) and they had to come back for that. Other than that they are 0-6 against Top 150 teams. I don’t think that they win here, so I’m going with the Rams. Rhode Island won at Davidson and won at Boston College, two teams better than Drexel. They also beat Northeastern and have nice wins over Providence and Fairfield as well. Rhode Island is much bigger and more athletic, so I don’t think that they are going to get pushed around by the Dragons on either end.

1.5-Unit Play. Take #586 Ohio (-16.5) over Elon (7 p.m.)
Elon hasn’t played in nearly two weeks and they weren’t playing that well to begin with. Hey, they played N.C. State tough on the road in their last game (Dec. 17). Well, N.C. State sucks so that doesn’t impress me. This same Elon team lost by 40 at Wake Forest, by 30 at UN-Wilmington, by 24 at Hofstra, and even by 23 at Coastal Carolina. Yeah, they suck. Ohio is one of the toughest places in the mid-major world to go in and get a win. I like the Bobcats big.

1.5-Unit Play. Take #581 Northeastern (-5) over Santa Clara (9 p.m.)
I’m going back to Northeastern. I still hold firm that this team is much better than its record. And by staying out on the West Coast they have had plenty of time to really focus on what they are doing and what has been going wrong in their season. Santa Clara has a better record and is playing at home, yet they are significantly dogged to a 3-7 team. What does that tell you? Since leading scorer Kevin Foster went down this team has been scrambling. They barely beat a pair of D-II teams, they got blitzed by Rice and they lost to San Jose State. Neither team is good offensively. But I simply refuse to believe that Northeastern is as bad as their record suggests and I think that they can pull their heads out of their asses in this game here and get us a win.

1-Unit Play. Take #554 Minnesota (-13) over Penn State (9 p.m.)
Minnesota has played a bunch of joke teams leading up to this game. But I have to say, they have dominated each and every one of them and Tubby Smith has shown that he doesn’t mind running up the score. Penn State has one player: Talor Battle. The Gophers know this. They have seen Battle. They are ready for what he brings to the table. And they are going to throw the kitchen sink at him knowing that he’s the only player that can beat them. It seems too easy to take the points here with Penn State, a team that has had some close losses and is about four possessions away from being a one-loss team. But I think that this line is this high for a reason.

1-Unit Play. Take #521 Hofstra (-1.5) over Florida Atlantic (7 p.m.)
Pretty straightforward here: Florida Atlantic was a team that I was set to fade this year and Hofstra was a team that I wanted to play on. The CAA is a significantly better conference than the Sun Belt, so we have relative strength working in our favor. And since neither of these teams has anything but some decent losses to hang their hats on I’ll have to trust my preseason read and look at the value of the better team from the better conference.

1-Unit Play. Take #532 Oklahoma State (-12) over Pacific (8 p.m.)
Pacific is a good regional team. What I mean by that is that they can play regional teams tough as an underdog, at home, or in conference play. But when they step out of their bubble out West and take on a Big Boy team they’re going to find out that they are not up to snuff. I really like this Oklahoma State team, especially at home. And they have shown a penchant for beating really weaker teams by a significant amount of points. Pacific lost by 25 points to Cal at home and by 15 points on the road at St. Mary’s. That’s the type of performance I’m looking for here. I actually like this play for a bit more. So if you're not going to play all of the picks, here is a game to bump up to 1.5 Units and let ride.

1-Unit Play. Take #565 Eastern Kentucky (+1.5) over Morgan State (6 p.m.)
Whole lotta love for Morgan State here despite the fact that this is a neutral court game. I think that Eastern Kentucky is kind of lying in the OVC weeds and that they are better than people think.

1-Unit Play. Take #561 Buffalo (-6.5) over Jacksonville (6 p.m.)
Just thinking that if Buffalo can go on the road and beat UW-Green Bay and go on the road and beat Niagara that they can man up and beat Jacksonville on a semi-neutral court. The Bulls are a sneaky-good team and they should be able to go in and handle a team that has just been getting rocked - I mean rocked - by teams like East Tennessee State, Campbell, and Georgia State (average loss: 16 points). Their one win? At Bethune-Cookman. I think the Bulls get the cash.

0.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 138.5 Marquette at West Virginia (7 p.m.)
Setting up to chase on a Marquette 'under'. I don't think that there is any way that their last game against Seton Hall should have gone 'over' the total so I'm going right back against the WVU offense and looking for them to put the clamps down tonight on defense. Marquette is not a team that scores a lot itself and neither team has any outstanding guards (I consider Butler a forward for WVU). No good guards and lots of athletes means, to me, a more frantic and less controlled game.

0.5-Unit Play. Take #516 LaSalle (-1) over Cornell (4 p.m.)
This is a revenge game for the Explorers. They were up 14 at Cornell last year and Cornell came back to win by 9. This LaSalle team is a bit banged up. They haven’t performed up to expectations. But with this game at home, and it really being a MUST game for them, I think that they find a way to get the win. They are bigger and more athletic, similar to the Seton Hall team that beat them. Cornell is playing yet another away game and they have been great on the road. They are a very, very good team. But I think that desperation takes over.

0.5-Unit Play. Take #590 Mississippi (-22.5) over Jacksonville State (8 p.m.)
Right now the top teams in college basketball are just hammering teams and covering these fat numbers. Ole Miss has to be steaming a bit from that West Virginia loss. And was they build up to the start of conference play I would think that they would be starting to tighten up a bit. Jacksonville State is one of the worst defensive teams in the country and don’t have the athletes to keep up. Ole Miss keeps burying shots and this one becomes a rout.

0.5-Unit Play. Take #555 Syracuse (-3) over Seton Hall (9 p.m.)
Have to bite. The oddsmakers are off on these Seton Hall numbers. I knew that they were off on the West Virginia number but took Seton Hall because I like them as a Big East sleeper. I should probably continue a small chase on them and I would have if the number was 6.0. But 3.0 is a joke. Syracuse has just destroyed much better teams than Seton Hall this year – on the road and on neutral courts. Seton Hall has beaten exactly no one. No one. They have proven nothing. So while this may be an obvious trap that we’re walking into I think it’s worth a small dabble, simply because I’d be kicking myself when Syracuse comes out and wins by 15. Once again, the game is all about Jeremy Hazell. If the notorious gunner is off then this one will get ugly. If he is on then Seton Hall could, in theory, win this game. He was 4-for-19 from deep when we bet on him. Here’s to hoping that he’s not 12-for-19 from deep when we’re against him.

0.5-Unit Play. Take #584 Wofford (-1.5) over Kent State (11 p.m.)
This Wofford team is a bit better than their record suggests. They have managed a win over South Carolina and close losses on the road against Illinois, Michigan State and Pittsburgh. They have played a very challenging schedule and I think that they will defend their home court. Kent State has not been good – at all – on the road and other than a bizarre win over UAB they have not beaten a team in the Top 140. I like Terriers to head out est and pick up a nice win in a challenging tournament setting.


These are 5-point teasers:
1-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #517 Purdue (-8) over Iowa (7 p.m.) AND Take #532 Oklahoma State (-7) over Pacific (8 p.m.)

0.5-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #565 Eastern Kentucky (+7) over Morgan State (6 p.m.) AND Take #586 Ohio (-11.5) over Elon (7 p.m.)

0.5-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #554 Minnesota (-8) over Penn State (9 p.m.) AND Take #581 Northeastern (Pk) over Santa Clara (9 p.m.)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-29-09

St. Bernadine Sports
2* UCLA/Temple over 44.5(4:30 pm) -This total will go down as it is really windy now but the winds will die down by game time. You might want to wait to get 43 or maybe even 42 here. While UCLA is only playing this game because it can break even financially(great motivation there), Temple is treating their 3rd bowl game in 110 years like it is the national championship. I still think the MAC is a weak league so I won't go with the Owls here. I will go with the over for a few reasons.

1. UCLA has struggled on defense all year. Flying X-country , playing in a minor bowl, in front of no fans(rumored to be less than 8,000 total tix sold for game) not sure of focus for this one. Defense for UCLA is overrated as they have allowed 23 pts or more 7 of last 9 games.

2. Temple has a nice RB in Pierce and they get their QB back in this one. Take out their last game played w/out their QB they have averaged 35 ppg all year. Granted it was vs weak competition but if UCLA isn't motivated then they become no better than the MAC teams they ran the points up on.

3. weather - The wind will slow down just in time for the game to under 10 MPH. This game will be much like last nights NFL game in which weather will be just cold making the field a bit slippery. Missed tackles could lead to big plays.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-29-09

BANKROLL SPORTS

10* Wisconsin Badgers +3½ (CFB)
5* Temple Owls +4½ (CFB)
5* Cleveland Cavaliers +3 (NBA)
4* West Virginia Moutaineers -12 (CBB)
3* New Orleans Hornets +6 (NBA)
2* L.S.U. Tigers +10.5 (CBB

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-29-09

Kelso FB

25 units Miami (FL) -3.5
10 units UCLA -4.5

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-29-09

Seabass CFB
50 Temple
50 Miami over; message says total is 57, buy to 56; but I see it now at 57.5 and 58.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-29-09

GREAT LAKES SPORTS

College football
4*Miami

College Hoops
4* Syracuse
3* Kansas State
3* Missouri

NBA
4* Atlanta
3* Washington
3* New Orleans

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-29-09

DAVE MALINSKY

UNDER 220.5,LOS ANGELES LAKERS -vs-Golden State Warriors

4* L.A. LAKERS/GOLDEN STATE Under The oddsmakers are forced to price this one like a good old-fashioned shootout, but that is not what Tuesday’s game flow brings at all. When Andris Biedrins, Athony Randolph and Ronny Turiaf are on the court, the Warriors are an entirely different team from the one forced to play at a break-neck pace to be successful, relying on those forays to the basket from Monta Ellis. The problem is that they have rarely been on the court together. Last night’s win over Boston marked the first time since October that Don Nelson had them all in the rotation, and the result was that 103-99 win in which the tempo was much more moderate than has been the Warrior way much of the season, and also some tough work on the boards (they were only out-rebounded 44-43). Now those three can become an even bigger presence now that they have some minutes under their belts, and sanity will return to Golden State game flows. At the same time look for fatigue to be an issue for Ellis, who had a sizzling 37 points last night, but never left the floor. It was the second time in the past week he has played the full 48 minutes, and third time since December 12th, so look for both his ability to push the ball, and to finish, to be diminished. The Lakers also bring weary legs, playing for the fourth time in five days, with a court change each time and two O.T. periods thrown in. Those O.T.’s were particularly painful to us, as an easy Under ticket at Sacramento morphed into a bitter defeat, the second time it has happened when playing the Lakers Under in a back-to-back setting in the month of December. But note how those O.T.’s confuse the markets. The Lakers have played seven back-to-back settings so far, going 6-0-1 to the Under in regulation, and falling a collective 98.5 points below the projections, for an average of 14.1 per game. That is a most significant performance pattern, but it got missed because three of those seven games were knotted at the end of regulation. Phil Jackson has a tired team tonight, and absolutely does not want a track meet. Look for him to slow things down in the early stages, but for the Warriors to also be comfortable with that as well, and the heavy legs for many of the key scorers keep this from ever getting anywhere near the high Total.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-29-09

IRON HORSE 10* COLLEGE BOWL GAME OF THE YEAR
***It's Here! Don't miss his "Bowl of the Year." You WON'T BELIEVE the Winning Information in Carlo Campanella's Game Analysis for Tuesday's Champs Sports Bowl featuring Wisconsin vs Miami! Get the 15-4 ATS Key Angle and find out why ONE of these teams is going to dominate the entire game.

Wisconsin Badgers

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-29-09

ASA

Temple/Ucla Under

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-29-09

CHARLIE SPORTS

nba. knicks @ pistons under 192, ncaaf. ucla-4' & miami fl vs wisconsin over 57'. (500* triple play).
ncaaf. miami fl-3' (30*)
nba. cleveland+2' (20*)
nba. houston-6 (20*)
ncaab. kansas st-18 (10*)
nba. pacers+5 (10*) free play

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-29-09

Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons

Warriors/Lakers UNDER 220.5

The Warriors rallied from an 18-point first-quarter deficit at home Monday and beat Boston 103-99. Golden State, which defeated Phoenix on Saturday, hasn’t won three in a row since April 1-5; suffice to say I expect a large offensive "letdown" this evening.

Keep in mind that the total has gone "under" the posted number in five of Golden State's last seven on the road overall.

On the other side of the court: Los Angeles looks to avoid back-to-back home losses for the first time since the end of the 2007-08 season; to do that I expect a concerted effort on the defensive side of the ball.

The Western Conference-leading Lakers return home from a 1-1 trip that easily could have been 0-2 if it weren’t for Kobe Bryant’s two clutch 3-pointers in the second overtime of Saturday’s 112-103 victory in Sacramento.

Remember, the total has gone "under" the posted number in four of the Lakers last five at home overall.

Bottom line: Here is another powerful "under" trend that the Lakers exhibit; LA has seen the total go "under" the posted number in seven of ten games this season when playing against a team with a losing record.

Expect this and these other strong O/U trends to continue this evening and when coupled with these other factors, the sharp money in this one is on the UNDER!

*7* UNDER.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-29-09

northcoast..power sweep

NCAAF
2*..TEMPLE/UCLA...UNDER

4*...MIAMI

NCAAB
CAL SPORTS
3*CREIGHTON -1'

NFL
POWER PLAY..4*....KC/DEN....OVER

EARLY BIRD
TENNESSEE OVER SKIDADLE
FYI

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-29-09

Craig Davis

25 Temple
15 Wisc
5 Purdue (hoops)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-29-09

The Booooj

10 units on Temple
50 units on Miami