12-30-09

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-30-09

KELSO

FB
10 units each on BG and Nebraska

BB
25 units Northwestern
10 units Wm and Mary
5 units Cincy
4 units SF Austin
3 units each on Harvard and the Knicks

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-30-09

HELMUT
W+M +12.5
Northwestern +8

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-30-09

Great Lakes sports:

College Hoops
4* Old Dom.
3* U Conn
3* UAB

NBA
4* Mil
3* Indiana
3* N O

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-30-09

ADAM MEYER

Neb/Arz Over

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-30-09

RAS..MarylandU140

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-30-09

Andre Gomes | NBA Total
720 POR / 719 LAC Under 190.0 Bookmaker.com
Analysis: It might look strange, but I'm sticking with my philosophy for this contest. If you remember, in the last Portland's game, I was with the Under and I started the write up saying the following: "I was with the Under in the last game of the Blazers against the Nuggets and even though I lost that play, we can be assure that the Blazers will be profitable in the future with the "Unders""

I know that we've lost that play, but we have to understand that a good play can eventually be lost and that's was the case. I predicted a slow paced contest and it was the case, as the Sixers shot a whopping 57.7% from the field and still scored "just" 104 points. The Sixers frontcourt was absolutely on fire and they scored 60 points in the paint. Meanwhile, the Blazers offense came back to Earth, like I've predicted.

For this contest, I expect the Blazers to bounce back defensively like they usually do after losing one game. This season, after losing one game the Under was 5-1 with the Blazers playing at home - a clear sign that they focus on their defense after losing one game and tonight it won't be different.

Meanwhile, the Clippers are coming from a terrific win against the Celtics. The Clippers played in a slow paced game, as the stats tell us because even though the Clippers shot 50.7% from the field and the Celtics 47.0% from the field, the game still ended with just 182 points! The Clippers are a inconsistent team and after winning one game, the Under is 8-4 in their next game and a perfect 4-0 with them being road underdogs. Unlike the Sixers, the Clippers have in Kaman their only scorer in the front and the Blazers will focus on him tonight. My project line for this contest is 185/187 points and I'm taking the Under in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 719/720 Under 190

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-30-09

Craig davis

30 Dime --- Nebraska-Arizona UNDER

15 Dime --- Bowling Green-Idaho OVER

ARIZONA/NEBRASKA UNDER --- Two games today, both point spreads near a pick 'em. That tells me Vegas knows both games should be really competitive, making it even tougher to predict which team will catch more breaks to get the SU win. Today is NOT a day for sides, but totals. Arizona is not going to line up and run all over Nebraska's defense while Nebraska simply doesn't have the offense to move the ball on Arizona's defense. It's going to come down to field goals, turnovers, and field position, and that tells me the UNDER is the right play.

This total might seem low and the immediate, knee-jerk reaction is going to be to play the OVER. If you'll remember back to the Big 12 Championship game, my big total play was on the UNDER (43) between Texas and Nebraska. Final score: 13-12. Now, I'm not saying tonight's final score will be that low, but you simply can't underestimate Nebraska's blackshirt defense. They've allowed just 11 PPG on the season, and the Huskers haven't allowed more than one offensive TD to an opponent just once since a 31-10 loss to Texas Tech back in October. Needless to say, this defense is clicking on all cylinders and it's going to take more than what Arizona has to offer in order for me to expect more than 17 points this evening.

As for Nebraska... for as good as their defense is, their offense is equally as bad. Zac Lee is a train wreck with his passing game, and it's no secret the Huskers want to run the ball 40 or more times per game... and there's no doubt they'll do that here again tonight. They want to give Arizona a healthy dose of Roy Helu and Rex Burkhead, because the last time Lee took the field, he completed just 6 of 19 passes and was picked off three times. The less they have to put the ball in the air, the less of a chance they have to turn the ball over. Lots of running burns the clock, and as the clock ticks away we get closer and closer to the UNDER. I'm expecting something like a 17-14 or 16-13 type finish, putting us well under the posted total tonight.

BOWLING GREEN/IDAHO OVER --- Let's be honest... no one knows who's going to win this game, and since the line is currently -1 at the time of this writing, you're basically picking the winner if you play the spread. Can you honestly look at either one of these two teams and tell me one is clearly better than the other? Oh sure, we can guess all day long, but unless someone has absolute inside information from one of these locker rooms that tells us one team is more excited about this game than the other, it's like flipping a coin. Neither team plays in a great conference, neither team plays defense, both teams can pass the ball with the best of them, and neither team really excites me in the run game. I guess if you put a gun to my head and asked me to pick a side I'd play Idaho because they're basically playing a home game while Bowling Green is traveling more than halfway across the country.

So what do we know and how can we win money on this game? Easy... play the OVER. Much like the Georgia/Texas A&M game, this contest offers very little in the way of defense, but features two of the better passing games in the country. Both Bowling Green and Idaho allow over 400 yards of offense per game, and what's more ironic is that each team's offensive strength is the other team's defensive weakness. For instance, Idaho can actually run the ball quite well (they throw it well too), and Bowling Green allows nearly as many yards on the ground as they do through the air. So I think it's safe to say the Vandals are going to be able to move the ball on the ground at will.

Meanwhile, Bowling Green possesses one of the most powerful passing games in the country, with QB Tyler Sheehan and WR Freddie Barnes combining for more TD passes together than any other QB/WR tandem in the country. BG, as a whole, passes for over 300 yards per game while the Vandals allow over 270 YPG through the air. Want a track meet? Watch this bowl game. You won't be disappointed. I realize the total is exceptionally high, but that tells me Vegas knows it's going to be high-scoring and they're trying to scare you into playing the UNDER because much of the money came in early on the OVER. That's what you should be doing too.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-30-09

Executive Hoops
300 Providence

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-30-09

helmut

Under Virginia 123.5

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-30-09

VR

3* CBB Cincy,
2* Arizona,
2* Illinois