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Handicapper: Rocketman Sports
Sport: College Football
Game: Ohio State Buckeyes @ Oregon Ducks - Friday January 1, 2010 5:00 pm
Pick: 1 unit ATS: Ohio State Buckeyes +4.5 (-110)
Both teams come in with identical 10-2 overall records this year. Oregon is 18-34 ATS since 1992 as a favorite of 3 1/2 to 10 points. Ohio State is allowing only 12.2 points per game overall and 11.4 points per game on the road this year. I think defense will be one of the keys to Ohio State victorious this one. Buckeyes are 7-1 ATS vs. a team with a victorious record. Buckeyes are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. Buckeyes are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. Buckeyes are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. Pac-10. Buckeyes are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games following a SU win. Buckeyes are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0. Buckeyes are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following a ATS win. Buckeyes are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. Buckeyes are 22-5 ATS in their last 27 games on grass. Buckeyes are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games. Buckeyes are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 bowl games as an underdog. Buckeyes are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 bowl games. Buckeyes are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 Bowl games. Buckeyes are 38-18 ATS in their last 56 games overall. We'll recommend a small play on Ohio State today! Thanks and good luck, Rocky
Oregon is locked into one of my best college bowl systems and I'm flying with the Ducks on New Year's Day to victory lane.
Since 1980, home or neutral bowlers that carry a won/loss percentage greater than .820 are a phenomenal 43-16 ATS provided they're matched up against a sub .918 opponent that enters with momentum off back-to-back straight up wins including a blowout victory of 10 points or more last. If our play on side did NOT beat the pointspread by 12 or more last and they are NOT running with revenge, this awesome post season bowl system tightens up to a spectacular 37-6 ATS! Oregon fits this situation and all of the tighteners perfectly!
The Big 10 hasn't given the Ducks much trouble in the past. In fact, when priced between -6 and +10 and matched up against a Big 10 foe, Oregon is a spectacular 11-1 ATS in its last 12 tries. Equally impressive, off back-to-back pointspread losses, the Ducks have posted a nearly perfect 7-1 ATS record!
Don't forget, since the 1997 season, the Pac 10 conference has dominated bowl teams that check in with momentum off back-to-back straight up wins posting a superb 22-6 ATS record. If our Pac 10 side is battling an opponent that checks in off a blowout win of 10 points or more, this conference trend explodes to a nifty 19-3 ATS! The Ducks apply!
Ohio State's defense is good and respect is given to a Buckeye's stop unit that ranks fifth in the nation. However, Oregon high-octane offensive attack has blazing speed and too many weapons and the Ducks will effectively pull away from State in the second half. Take Oregon.
We're looking for the Buckeyes to end their bowl drought here. Much is made of Oregon's speed on the offensive side of the ball however, OSU plays sound gap control defense and tackles well in space. We'll look for the Buckeyes to pay sound gap control defense and limit Oregon's effectiveness of their zone read attack. On the other hand, Oregon, has struggled on the defensive side of the ball at times and OSU's underrated offense can move the football. Saine, Herron, and Pryor do a nice job running behind a physical Buckeye's offensive line tonight, we'll look for the OSU offensive line to out-physical the Oregon front eight to allow QB Pryor to go to the air effectively vs an Oregon Pass defense that allows 329 ypg. And keep in mind that when the Ducks faced a tough opponent on the road, they didn't fare particularly well for example, they struggled at Boise State a, lost at Stanford and had to go to OT to beat Arizona. We'll take the points here.
Well, here we have it again, as the classic battle between the tortoise and the hare, much like the Air Force/Houston, goes one more round. On one hand is the high flying Oregon Ducks, a team that possesses a juggernaut offense that plays with reckless abandon and that doesn’t mind getting into a 54-44 shootout. On the other hand is the methodical and disciplined Buckeyes, a team that loves to run, use the clock and grind out wins. As the story goes, the hare always wins and it was proven once again yesterday when Air Force rolled over the Cougars, 47-20. These high flying offensive teams have a poor history in Bowl games when playing its polar opposite and one could argue that after being off for a month or more, the offense, which relies heavily on good timing, is out of sync. Throw in the stellar defense of the well-coached Buckeyes here and what we have is all the makings of a small upset. The Ducks employ all sorts of different running sets and just love to run these creative running plays, but this isn’t Washington, Arizona St or Purdue they’re playing. No, this is one of the best recruiting teams in the nation and one if the perennial powers that is usually favored to win. Now they’ll come in with as a pooch against this good but very erratic and very beatable Ducks squad. Yes, the Ducks had a great year but I’m nowhere near being convinced that they’re as good as advertised. The 10-2 Buckeyes, that beat a lot of good teams down the stretch including Penn St and Iowa, will run the ball down the throat of this opponent, control the clock and probably beating them in impressive fashion. Take the 4½ if you like, I’m taking the Buckeyes straight up. Play: Ohio St +1.71 (Risking 2 units).
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