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Re: 1-3-10
STEVE BUDIN
25 dime cleveland
STEVE BUDIN
25 dime cleveland
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Re: 1-3-10
Al DeMarco
Sunday's Play
15 Dime - San Diego Chargers
First things first: this is an absolutely meaningless game for the Chargers, who are locked into the # 2 seed in the AFC and have a first-round playoff bye. But don't for a minute think a number of veterans on this team haven't forgotten when they earned the No. 1 seed back in 2006 and promptly got upset by New England at home in their first playoff outing. The subject was brought up this week so I just don't think the 'Bolts are going to roll over and play dead today.
Another thing I thought about when analyzing this game: Back in August, Norv Turner decided to play his veterans and starters more - including LaDainian Tomlinson - in the preseason so his team would avoid its usual slow start out of the starting gate. Any coach that was that concerned about the start of the season surely isn't going to throw away the momentum created by a 10-game winning streak that could be 11 heading into the playoffs, right?
Turner says his starters will see action before getting pulled today. Don't be surprised if they go just the first quarter. But that's not so bad considering this San Diego squad has outscored its foes 73-16 in the opening quarter during its 10-game winning streak. Conversely, today's opponent, Washington, has been outscored 86-41 in the first quarter of games this year.
Am I worried what happens to the San Diego offense once Philip Rivers takes his helmet off for good? Actually, not at all. This isn't like the Colts replacing Peyton Manning with a rookie last week. Instead, when Rivers exits, 10-year veteran Billy Volek will enter.
A little background: When I handicap preseason football, the factor that means the most to me is the strength of back-up quarterbacks because they generally will be the ones whom your money will be riding on. During his career, first at Tennessee and now with San Diego, Volek has always been one of my favorites because he's a decent passer with adequate mobility (important when you're often playing behind a makeshift offensive line) and his teams score points.
Today's contest is in essence a pre-season game for the Chargers so what I wrote above applies with Volek and San Diego's prospects.
Defensively, San Diego will not be as stout with the starters sitting, but I question the Redskins' desire after getting outscored 62-12 in losses to division rivals New York and Dallas the past two weeks. Talk about showing no heart. Washington epitomizes a team playing out the string. The players know Jim Zorn is a dead man walking and total upheaval is coming. Don't expect them to rally and play well in a road finale.
One final tidbit: Washington is 2-10-1 ATS in its last 13 games versus the AFC.
An entertaining game? Probably not. But at this price, I'll lay around a field goal with the home team and call for the Chargers to prevail 23-14.
Strategy Note:
You've heard me discuss this many times on TV and radio; I only believe in buying half points when the number is around 3, 4 or 7. This price is floating between 3 and 3 1/2 so go ahead and buy down the half-point in either case on San Diego.Comment
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Re: 1-3-10
Ferringo
1.5-Unit Play. Take #727 Ohio State (+2) over Michigan (4:30 p.m.)
Big rivalry game here for these two teams. And even though I’m ignoring the “unranked favorite over a Top 25 team” I still feel like this is a solid spot. Michigan stinks. Maybe they will play out of their heads because they are at home, but they haven’t beaten anyone this year. Anyone. They have gotten blown out by teams like Marquette and Utah, they lost at Indiana, which is terrible. Their best wins are over Detroit and awful Creighton (in OT). They have proven squat. They are soft inside, they aren’t shooting well, and they really have two guys that can do anything (Sims and Harris). Ohio State ran into a buzzsaw in Wisconsin this week. Nothing they could have done about that one. I know that the Buckeyes are floundering without Evan Turner. But they still have some guys that can play. Lighty, Diebler and Buford are all in double digits. Simmons and Lauderdale are close. P.J. Hill can run the point. This team still has some guys that can play and I think that they are better than the Wolverines.
1-Unit Play. Take #721 Creighton (-4.5) over Evansville (3 p.m.)
It is obvious that Creighton is awful. But are they this awful? Are they so awful that they are going to lose on the road to Evansville? We lost with the Jays in Indiana State and now it looks like the Aces are actually taking more of the action in this game. Well, Creighton has won eight of nine in this series and I think that Dana Altman’s skill and his team’s desperation is enough for a blowout here. I mean, their losses lately are at George Mason by 3, at New Mexico by 5, against Northern Iowa and at Indiana State. Those are respectable and all were close. Evansville just isn’t up to snuff and their only wins in the last month are against UT-Martin and Georgia Southern. I’m not impressed. I’ll take the disrespected favorite.
1-Unit Play. Take #723 UTEP (Pk) over Texas Tech (3 p.m.)
Here we have a heavy reverse line movement away from the Top 25 team. To the point that this game is now at just +1. Why? Is it because UTEP may be the better team here? Now that Derrick Caracter is in the fold I think it’s clear that UTEP has more on the interior and is equal on the perimeter to the Red Raiders. Texas Tech (barely) beat Washington at home. Good for them. But Washington sucks, so I don’t know how much credence I give that win. Other than that, Tech has beaten Stanford (also sucks) and played two not-as-close-as-the-scores-looked games in losses to New Mexico and Wichita State. Tech is mediocre. I am following the line movement here and we’ll dabble on the curious RLM.
1-Unit Play. Take #711 Wisconsin (-4.5) over Penn State (2 p.m.)
Little bit of a letdown/look ahead spot here for Wisconsin. But the issue is that Penn State just isn't very good. At all. They have one good player - Talor Battle - and I think that Wisconsin can neutralize him with Trevon Hughes. Bo Ryan's team just wins, man. And they have three of the four best players on the floor here. This Wisconsin team is talented enough and tough enough to go get a road win here over a Penn State team that has done nothing but lose to decent teams this year. Their two best wins are Davidson and Virginia. Not impressive at all. Wisconsin is good enough to blast Duke and Ohio State, they are good enough to beat sagging Penn State.
2-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #727 Ohio State (+7) over Michigan (4:30 p.m.) AND Take #738 Duke (-5.5) over Clemson (7:45 p.m.)
1-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #718 Northern Iowa (-2.5) over Missouri State (2 p.m.) AND Take #729 Providence (+10.5) over St. John’s (5:30 p.m.)
0.5-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #718 Northern Iowa (-2.5) over Missouri State (2 p.m.) AND Take #723 UTEP (+5) over Texas Tech (3 p.m.)
0.5-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #715 Houston (+11.5) over Iowa State (2 p.m.) AND Take #727 Ohio State (+7) over Michigan (4:30 p.m.)Comment
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Re: 1-3-10
MREAST NFL SUNDAY EXPLOSION
The Philadelphia Eagles have always figured out the Cowboys in game 2 of their meetings regardless of the result of game 1. The eagles have held the Cowboys this decade to 76 points in their 2nd game, while scoring 224 themselves. That is an average score of 24.9 to 8.4!!! Then you can kick in a league wide trend that sees a road dog playing vs a team they lost to earlier in the season, coming back to a 56-21-3 ATS mark in the return game. That is some pretty powerful stuff on the eagles here, and I'll back them in this one.
#307 PHILADELPHIA EAGLES @ #308 DALLAS COWBOYS 4:15PM EST
PLAY ON #307 PHILADELPHIA EAGLES +3 -110 FOR 3 UNITSComment
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