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The Bulls have been a good defensive team all season and the numbers speak by themselves: they are allowing 97.1 points per game - good for the 10th best NBA mark and they are allowing their opponents to shot 43.9% from the field - only the Cavaliers, Lakers and the Magic have better numbers in this department!
The problem for them is related with their offense, as they are in the bottom in any major offensive ranking. We can say that Vinny Del Negro sucks and blame him for the struggles, but bottom line this problem is all about the lacking of executing of their players. The Bulls won't win many games if Derrick Rose plays the way he did in the first months of the competition or if Tyrus Thomas doesn't step up on the court. That happened with the Bulls early on the season and naturally that the Bulls struggled to win.
However, Derrick Rose is improving his game and against the Magic he made his best performance in the season with 30 points (11-for-23 from the field, 8-for-10 FT), seven assists and six boards! It was the sixth time in the last seven games that Rose has gone over 20 points and he is averaging 24 points over his last five outings, after averaging just 16.2 ppg in November per example. The Bulls are riding a season high 4-game winning streak and last game against Orlando was a good sign of their improvement: they outrebounded the Magic, they held Howard to a 3-7 shooting night and they had a nice ball movement with 21 assists and 12 turnovers.
Meanwhile, the Thunder is coming from a tough loss in Milwaukee after overtime against the Bucks and naturally that they want to bounce back tonight. However there are some problems related with this team: Both Thabo Sefolosha and Russell Westbrook are struggling with some injuries of late and in the case of Westbrook this is problematic for the team. In the last 4 games, Westbrook has shot 4-12, 5-14, 3-12 and 6-16, a total mark of 18-54 from the field (only 33%). Plus the Thunder is having some problems to secure the glass as in the last 3 games, they allowed their opponents to grab 13, 17 and 19 offensive boards and the Chicago is a great offensive rebounding team - currently they are the 4th best team in the league and with the return of Tyrus Thomas, they are even more stronger on this department.
I believe that the Bulls have the momentum on their side for tonight and they have some important edges on their side as well like the rebound battle that justifies them to be more favored for tonight and that's why I'm taking them tonight.
NOTE: The line sent to the clients was -1,5 but it's still ok to bet it at -3.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 504 Chicago Bulls (-1,5)
Boise State's strength this season has been the offensive line's ability to push inferior competition around and buy time for Kellen Moore. Against TCU, they won't afford their QB that luxury, instead scrambling to keep Jerry Hughes off his scent. That's the game-changer here. Look for the Horned Frogs to do what they do best and play bully, containing Boise's big plays to win convincingly. Back TCU -7 and the under, 54.
Texas Christian held Boise State to 26 yards rushing last year and this year it could be the same kind of event. If Boise can't get running the ball than it will relying on special teams. So Broncos fans will be expecting a lot of punts and field goals this evening if they don't establish the running game in the first quarter.
TCU is the #1 defense in the country. They rank #2 against the run and #3 against the pass. Boise is going to have an extremely difficult time getting momentum going against this defense. This is the type of defense they haven't faced all season.
They didn't light up the score on the blue turf when they played the Oregon Ducks earlier this year. That was the best defense they have played against. This TCU defense is lights out compared to Oregon and on top of that they have to step away from their glorious Blue Turf.
The big stage and bright lights should bring out the best of this TCU defense. The TCU offense isn't the most powerful group but their balance using the running game is good enough to eat up clock and cash an under. Their stats got boosted against some of the bottom tier defensive teams in the Mountain West. When they stepped up against Clemson they only scored 14 points. They remind me of a Mountain West version of Alabama offensively when facing better talent. Boise State has a good enough defensive team to keep them from pushing this over.
Both teams are averaging over 40 PPG but tonight it will be a much different story. I think TCU gets into the upper 20's or low 30's and Boise gets into the high teens or lower 20's and this one trembles below the the total of 53.5. Play this one under tonight.
3* Pitt +4.5
I'm from Ohio as you can see in the name and please don't fall into the trap of the hype of the Bearcats. They are good but catching Pitt with a pocket full of momentum after beating Syracuse in the Carrier Dome isn't what they wanted. The Bearcats win against UConn was controversial and they should have lost that game without a doubt in my mind.
Cincinnati is good as I said before but I saw the imperfections against University of Alabama-Birmingham, Gonzaga, and Xavier. The Bearcats don't have a reliable three point artist in their repertoire and that what is causing them to collapse in tight games. Pitt has a variety of options on the perimeter to cause headaches. We saw what they did to the Syracuse zone defense in the Carrier Dome on Saturday. Pitt is the better team and points have to be taken without second guessing.
I feel Pitt continues to show us growth throughout the season by getting better with each game and giving some experience to the young group. The true Cincinnati identity will be brought to the light as the Big East schedule continues on through March. Let's grab the points and take Pitt tonight.
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