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Re: 1-7-10
Seabass:
300 Texas +4
100 Texas ML
100 Under
Seabass:
300 Texas +4
100 Texas ML
100 Under
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Re: 1-7-10
KING CREOLE SPORTS
KNICKS / BOBCATS Thursday
3*** OVER / UNDER Winner from King Creole!Plays rated 2 thru 5 stars
7:30pm ET / Charlotte Bobcats @ New York Knicks
3*** Play on: UNDER the TOTAL
Looks like the OU line is going up in this game. It opened at 197. At last look, it was up to 199 or 200. Let it “top out”… and then pounce on the UNDER. These two teams have already played each other 3 times this season. The 2 games in December went “UNDER the Total”. The game played back in late October DID indeed go ‘OVER’… but ONLY because the game went into overtime.
Tonight’s play is ‘System-based’. And our first area of query begins with the Day of the Week.
So far in the 09/10 season, NBA games played on a THURSDAY have gone 8-17-1 O/U. And since December 1st, home FAVORITES on a Thursday (NY) have gone 1-8 O/U.
New York Has won two games in a row. The most recent win was a whopping 132-89 outcome over the Indiana Pacers on Sunday night. So the Knicks come in with 3 days rest. Meanwhile, the Bobcats are playing their best ball of the season as they have reeled off 3 wins in a row of their own. The most recent was Tuesday night, when they beat the Bulls (but did not cover the pointspread).
1-6 O/U this season: All non-division NBA teams playing off a SU win of 30 or MORE points (NY).
3-10 O/U this season: all NBA teams who scored 130 or MORE points in their last game (NY).
0-5 O/U since Dec. 1st: all NBA home favorites of < 6 points playing off BSU wins (NY)… versus an opponent ALSO off BB SU wins (CHAR).
4-14 O/U this season: All NBA dogs of > 3 points playing off a SU win BUT an ATS loss (CHAR). NON-division teams have gone 2-10 O/U.
When these two divisions hook up against each other, we can expect a LOW-scoring outcome… based on the site and the pointspread.
1-7 O/U this season: All ATLANTIC division home favs of > 3 points (NY)…. Taking on an opponent from the SOUTHEAST division (CHAR).
You may be concerned that the Knicks have reeled off 3 “OVERS” in a row… and the Bobcats also went “OVER” in their last game. Don’t be…. That just increases the VALUE of tonight’s OU line.
3-13 O/U since Dec. 1st: All NBA home teams playing off 3 or more “OVERS” in a row (NY)… versus an opponent that ALSO went “OVER” in their last game (CHAR). If the host is favored by < 8 points, these games have gone a PERFECT 0-8 O/U.Comment
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Re: 1-7-10
VR analysis
vegas-runner | CFB Side Thu, 01/07/10 - 8:10 PM
triple-dime bet 267 Texas 4.0 (-110) Bodog vs 268 Alabama
Analysis:
***** CFB BCS CHAMPIONSHIP 5* BOWL GAME OF THE YEAR *****
Bodog is using +4.5...And the reason that we decided to pass along this Bet early, is because I have heard that there is an extremely sharp Betting Syndicate who is considering a HUGE POSITION on TEXAS...The Wiseguys are already the reason that this number has come back down, from a high of "6"...even though the betting public is betting Alabama heavy...And more importantly, the sportsbooks claim to have a lot of "pending" parlays and teasers on that Alabama side...So even with all that public money, I feel that if this line goes up...then the Outfits will come through and BUY some more Texas...
Bottom Line here once again is TRUE VALUE...The point-spread is definitely based on nothing more than "public perception"...Proof of that is that fact that the Oddsmakers Poll had TEXAS above Alabama for almost the entire season, with Florida on top...And most sharps had Texas as a 1pt fav on a neutral site before those Championship Games...So I can promise y…ou that they didn't adjust their Ratings almost "5.5" full points...Or worse, "7" pts when this line was up to 6....
So regardless the outcome...we know going in that we are definitely getting the best of it as far as the line goes...Now that don't always guarantee a winner, but it does guarantee long-term success...Because if you can continue to put your money down, when you are getting the best of it...and employ proper money management...the books will NEVER be able to beat you over time...
But right now...this is only about 1 game...Tonight's game...And I truly believe that we are on the right side...Now let me tell you why..
Alabama accomplished a HUGE GOAL of beating Florida and capturing the SEC Title...While Texas is still 1 win away from their main goal for this season...It's the reason Colt McCoy and so many others returned for their senior season...
More importantly...After beating Florida the way they did...and seeing how Texas barely even got into this game...I think Alabama is coming in a bit too confident, and you just can't do that when your opponent is just as talented, if not more talented than you are...
Next, I love the fact that we have a SR QB, going up against a JR QB, who made only "11" attempts as a Sophomore...And I think it will be extremely difficult for McElroy to even come close to doing what he did in that SEC Championship Game...
So for TEXAS, it's going to come down to stopping Ingram...And they are the "#1" DEFENSE AGAINST the RUN in College Football this year...And on the flip side, the only way you can get to the Alabama...is through the air...and that's something that I expect McCoy to be able to do...
Texas will come in with a chip on their shoulders and something to prove, because many say they shouldn't even be here...And we've seen that they are "27-13" (68% ATS) as a DOG...which supports the fact that they come to play when expected to lose...
In the end, I just feel that this is too much Value to pass up...and that the situation favors us as well...I expect an extremely close game...And when I can get over a FG, in a spot like this, I'm willing to step up and fire my biggest UNIT amount...VR
*** With that said fellas...You have to always practice money management because the truth is, the very best sports bettors will cash their best bets maybe 60% of the time long-term...So please make sure that you wager accordingly***Comment
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Re: 1-7-10
AAA Sports Handicapping
NCAAF: Texas Longhorns at Alabama Crimson Tide - Texas +4 (Best Bet) -110 | Unit Value: 3
Game Date: 1/7/2010
Note: You should know a couple of things about this selection. Number 1 is that if I pick against an SEC Team in a game this big, I must really like it. Number 2 is that if I pick such a high profile game, I must really like it. There are going to be a lot of handicapping services that make a Big Play on this game, either for Bama or the Longhorns. That is because they are looking for an outlet to make mOney. I am going to give it away free on Twitter, and on a Newsletter I am sending out today. I was just waiting for the line to move to it's current number to tell you to bet it. Why Bet it? Why Bet it so hard? Because simply put, Texas is a better team. Texas has more motivation to show everyone they have a better team. And the Better Team is getting points! Oh My Goodness! I am not going to bore you with stats for this play. Stats are statisticians and I am not one of those. Those guys are boring and are least likely to have any kind of real life. I have a life and I like it. This line opened at Alabama -4.5. The line dropped to -3.5 despite money being poured on the Tide by Bettors of This Nation and the World. It is now at -4 and that is because the Big Money has arrived. That would include my Big Money. Texas is not your typical Big 12 Team because they play defense and they play it well. Alabama is somewhat offensively challenged and we will see that tonight. They don't have the same quick strike potential that the Horns have. They have not had to listen for a month about how they are going to be beat. Anyone remember the Texas Win over USC a few years ago? I had Texas then. This is the same scenerio. It pains me to bet against Alabama. But my pain will be rewarded. I don't know where this line is going today but I am grabbing the 4 points.Comment
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Re: 1-7-10
Steve Duemig
Thursday
25 Dime - Texas
Obviously to be a good handicapper or any kind of handicapper you have to have a good set of power ratings that you can rely on when it comes to spotting edges in the line. If you don't have them or at the very least have access to them, you are wasting your time and money. It is key that one knows, especially when the lines come out where the edge is and which way the handicapper thinks the line will move and make sure they get the best possible number. Sharp sports betting is about one thing. GETTING THE BEST NUMBER. The worst thing one can do is bet into a bad line. Sometimes on game day lines change by the time you get my picks. I can assure you that I do the very best that I can to anticipate those line moves in order for us to have the best possible chance of winning. I will give you my best example of this. In the Sugar Bowl, I played the Gators on the come out line of -10. It never got lower than that so I got the best possible number, and I knew it was never going down either. The line eventually went up to 13. On game day I gave out the Gators as my pick to you even though I knew the line was already bet up. But it still had tons of value and that is why I gave it out to you. If you remember though I stated that the only reason I was not making that game my highest rated game ever was because on game day I did not really know how high the line would actually go. I stated that if it did go to 14 or above you would really have to make a choice based on your own comfort levels. Well we all know the outcome of that massacre so we did the right thing. That brings us to this game tonight, the BCS National Championship.
There is a reason that I gave you the aforementioned background information because we are going to use it in this game. We have produced a profit for you here throughout the football season over the past year. One of the main reasons is that in case you haven't noticed we have used some very strict money management during the campaign. I put a lot of thought into how I want to weight these games. Certainly there are games that I feel we have a bigger edge than others and that's why we wager and take advantage of that edge. I could easily blow out the ratings with the end of the college season but i would never do that unless I thought we had that big of an edge. We have one but it is not gigantic so we will not bet gigantic. Hopefully you understand this. No one game is more important than any other game.
Ok here we go. I mentioned above the power ratings. Here is where we have our edge, and where we can weed out all the hype. Believe me, by the time this game kicks off, your head will be spinning with all the hype. We have to weed all of that out, and we will do that. Over the course of the college season we saw Florida ranked # 1 the entire year up until the SEC Championship game. Who was number two all season long? Don't know do you? You weren't paying attention? Let me give you a hint. It wasn't Alabama. We AREN"T talking about rankings here, we are talking about RATINGS. It wasn't Alabama by a mile folks. It was Texas, by a wide margin. we have our edge now. Why? Because of perception!! The perception of the public who will come out of the woodwork to bet this game. What did they see? They saw Alabama come out and punch the Gators right in the mouth and totally dethrone Tim Tebow and the National Champion Gators in the SEC Championship game. They ran the ball up and down the field on the Gators, largely on the back of the Heisman Trophy winning Mark Ingram. Heisman Jinx?? I wish it were that simple. The Gators could have totally altered the beginning of that game and perhaps the entire game if Jeff Demps had call the pass in the flat on the Gator's first series. He had the entire sidline up the field open to him and most likely an early back breaking TD. He dropped it and the rest is history. The Bama D knew they weren't getting beat deep with the passing game so they left eveything in front of them and make Tebow work harder and harder. There were several occasions however that the Gators simply failed to make a play here or there that was available to them. We know the rest. what I am getting at is a game is never as bad or good as it looked. It was ONE game. What about them needing two blocked kicks to beat TENN or having to go the length of the field for a last minute win over Auburn. Believe me Bama came a helluva lot closer to losing games than either Texas or Florida
Same goes for the Texas-Nebraska Big Twelve Championship game. What did we see? We saw a one man wrecking crew in Suh (no I'm not spelling his first name) for Nebraska. Does Bama have a boy named Suh? Nope. they have a Cody though, but he can't track down McCoy or beat the Texas line like Suh did. So we have eliminated a main game changer. Alabama is very good defensively, But they are not in my opinion as dangerous as Nebraska's. McCoy will have more weapons offensively available to him than the Gators did. They have a run game and they have a good corp of fast WR's. This keeps them two dimensional and a threat to Bama.
Now we have looked at the "perceptions" of each game and they are KEY in handicapping this one. The perception was Bama, Bama, Bama to the upside by beating the Gators. That was a 1 year goal by Bama after getting beat the year before. It was Texas to the negative perception for a narrow victory over a team many thought they would dominate. Now lets go to the all important RATINGS. The rankings we know. Texas stayed at number two but Bama jumped from 3 to 1. No problem yet but here is where we find it. All year long I have had access to the ratings of how Vegas perceives the public to be rating these teams and they have based their spreads many times off of those perceived power ratings of how they think the public will bet. Well, remember how I told you in the beginning how Texas was the #2 rated team and Bama was 3 and I might add by a WIDE margin? Well talk about perception, after those two games all of a sudden Bama was rated #1 and Texas was dropped to #3 with the Gators in the middle!!! Whoa!!!! Are you kidding me? Get this though, Vegas made it a 7 point swing. They added 7 to Bama and subtracted 7 from Texas!!! Holy Crap! What does this all add up to? They are basing this line ALL off the perception of those last two games. No ratings move that muvh off of a single game EVER, unless there is only one game left, and that;s what we have. The wrong team is favored here in my best educated guess!! We can make a case for both teams here but based off the movement of those ratings, Vegas is setting people up for the kill for those that take Bama. We're not taking Bama, we are taking Texas and the points. The line has yo yoed from the opener of Bama -3.5 up to Bama - 6, but it has since worked it's way all the way back to the opener at the time of this post of Bama 3.5. That means there is support for both sides but the % of spread bets still show a wide margin in favor of Bama. I believe that on game day the line will creep back up as the public starts to bet this game after listening to all the HYPE. Keep an eye out and try to wait out the best number on TX if you see it creeping up because our ratings have eliminated the HYPE.
It's been a great college football season!!!. Thanks for putting your faith in me to help you through. We will still be around for basketball, baseball and one of my favorites is returning this spring ARENA FOOTBALL!!!! We also still have the NFL playoffs and the Super Bowl to go as well. Thanks and lets get this big one.Comment
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Re: 1-7-10
ROBERT FERRINGO
1.5-Unit Play. Take #741 Eastern Kentucky (-2.5) over Jacksonville State (6:30 p.m.)
1.5-Unit Play. Take #717 Louisiana-Monroe (+3) over FIU (8 p.m.)
1-Unit Play. Take #712 Youngstown State (-5.5) over Illinois-Chicago (7 p.m.)
1-Unit Play. Take #727 Long Beach State (-1.5) over CS-Fullerton (10 p.m.)
0.5-Unit Play. Take #733 Morehead State (-2.5) over Tennessee Tech (8:30 p.m.)
1-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #731 Wofford (-3) over UNC-Greensboro (7 p.m.) AND Take #712 Youngstown State (-0.5) over Illinois-Chicago (7 p.m.)
0.5-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #706 USA (+7.5) over Western Kentucky (6 p.m.) AND Take #717 Louisiana-Monroe (+8) over FIU (8 p.m.)Comment
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Re: 1-7-10
EZWINNERS
7-2-1 his last ten selections.
***** 10 STAR SELECTION *****
Date: Thursday, January 7, 2009
Game: Texas Longhorns vs. Alabama Crimson Tide
Sport: NCAA Football
Time: 7:35PM CST
Risk/Win: $1100 to win $1000
(267) Texas Longhorns +4
(Line from Betjamaica)
***** 5 STAR SELECTION *****
Date: Thursday, January 7, 2009
Game: Texas Longhorns vs. Alabama Crimson Tide
Sport: NCAA Football
Time: 7:35PM CST
Risk/Win: $500 to win $800
(267) Texas Longhorns +4
(Line from Betjamaica)
Public perception is that Alabama is the much better team and after beating up on Florida in the SEC championship they will beat this Texas team that barely won the Big 12 championship game rather easily. I don't believe that to be the case. Both of these teams have solid defenses but I give an edge to the Longhorns on the offensive side of the ball especially at quarterback. Colt McCoy is a seasoned veteran and can make things happen for the Horns. Greg McElroy has played will for Alabama at quarterback, but he is not a Heisman trophy finalist and can’t carry his team. The Tide do have the Heisman trophy winner Mark Ingram at running back, but that has not been a good thing for teams as the team with the Heisman Trophy winner are only 7-21 against the spread the last 28 years. This game will most likely come down to a big play and that big play could very well come on special teams. The Longhorns have a big advantage on special teams where they are the best in the nation and have returned seven kicks for touchdowns this season. The Tide have some dangerous kick returners themselves, but Alabama's kick coverage is cause for concern. The Tide allow over 25 yards per return and have allowed two kicks to be returned for touchdowns this season. We have the makings for a very good game. There was an overreaction by the linesmakers in my opinion with Alabama’s convincing win against the Gators while Texas needed a game winning field goal with one second left to knock off the Huskers. I’ll gladly take the points as I feel that they win this game. Hook 'em Horns!
TEXAS 24 ALABAMA 20Comment
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