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Marco D'Angelo | CBB Sides Thu, 01/14/10 - 8:00 PM
double-dime bet 527 Youngstown St. 5.0 (-110) Bodog vs 528 Valparaiso
Analysis: PLAY: YOUNGSTOWN ST
RATING: DOUBLE DIME PLAY
I love the Dog here as they should be live against Valparaiso who enters tonight's game off of a gut wrenching loss to Wright St on Sunday as they lost by 2 getting 16.5 at Wright St. Valpo will be flat off that game so let's grab the points as I see this one going to the final buzzer. Take YOUNGSTOWN ST as MARCO'S 5* KEY RELEASE
on to today:
Coll hoops:
St Mary's over Gonzaga(11pm) line has gotten out of hand on this one. What started out as a 2.5 point favorite is now a 5 point fave. I don't think st Mary's is that much of a favorite. It is now a no play. If the line should go back down to 3 tonight then play it. All of these ranked vs unranked games have ended up as 1-3point wins so with the spread going up it is now a no play.
other plays:
1* Tenn-Chattanooga -1.5 over Citadel(7pm)- Chatt has found it's groove after playing a couple of top tier teams in Ga tech and Murray st. The Moccasins have reeled off 5 in a row, all by double digits. Tenn-Chatt has won the last 10 meetings vs Citadel. It isn't a hex that is like N.Carolina over Clemson(till yesterday), but 10 in a row is hard to ignore. When you win that many in a row it is just a style mismatch that repeats itself until something major changes. It is also the same reasoning as the Michigan st play yesterday.
3*Tenn-Tech over Tenn-Martin(9pm) - Tenn Martin is one of the worst teams in Div 1 hoops. They have yet to win vs a Div 1 school this year. This game is a Rivalry game for these 2 teams, one that has been lopsided in Martin's favor recently. Tonight is Tech's turn to give the beat down. Even in losing the last 3 games, Tech has shot over 50% from the field. With more solid offense like that tonight Tenn-Martin will be powerless to stop it. Both teams are bad defensively so a likely blowout score here will be 95-80.
This will seem strange but that is all for tonight. Nothing else fits the systems.
[501-502] 4* Chicago Bulls/Boston Celtics UNDER 196.5 -110 | 8:00p ET
Chicago playing better basketball, fueled by their improved outside shooting lately. However, team have not faced a similar type Boston defense in recent memory. You have to go back 4+ weeks to find a similar offensive challenge. Bulls scored 87 pts vs. Lakers on 12/15, 80 vs. same Celtics on 12/12 & 87 vs Cleveland on 12/4. Plus, always more difficult to hit from outside on road. And, Da Bulls live & die by the outside shot (no real inside threat; Noah??). Boston #2 defensive team in league, allowing only 93.8 ppg. In addition, Celts #6 in fg% allowed & 3pt fg% allowed (44.6, 33.6). Team only allowing 5.6 3pt fgpg (#5). More importantly, Boston playing second b2b in 5 nights and will be missing Garnett & Wallace. Hence, team should have tired legs and will have to rely on more defense tonight IMO. As a result, believe Boston will contest every shot (no easy buckets) & try to slow game down and control possessions, especially late in game.
Gonzaga at Saint Mary's CA
Bet: Saint Mary's CA -4.5
The "sharps" hit this one almost right away. This line opened at Saint Mary's -3 and was hit within minutes, pushing it to -3.5. And just minutes after that it was hit again, pushing it to -4. And that line move is despite the fact that most of the bets coming in have been on Gonzaga, including money-line bets and exotics. I'm disappointed that I missed out on the -4, but I feel we still have a strong play at -4.5.
Gonzaga has only played two true road games this season, and they were beaten by Michigan State in their only big road test. St. Mary's has been extremely tough at home, and I like the fact that the Gaels are one of very few teams that can match Gonzaga's size. St. Mary's actually has the 4th-best effective height rating in thenation at +5.3, which tops the Bulldogs' #13 ranking at +3.9.
When looking at Gonzaga's road performances compared to Saint Mary's home performances, I see several huge edges for the Gaels. First, the Gaels score 87.8 ppg on 52.2% shooting at home, and they'll be going against a Gonzaga road defense allowing 76.5 ppg on 47% shooting. But Gonzaga's road offense, which averages 76 points on 41.7% shooting, would face a Gaels' home defense allowing only 64.1 ppg on just 40% shooting. Even if we look at overall numbers, Saint Mary's holds edges in rebound margin, free-throw shooting, and 3-point shooting.
Bottom line: The "sharps" definitely have their money on the Gaels. And looking at the stats from these two teams, I can see why. Gonzaga's #14 ranking is just a bull's eye for the unranked Gaels. And having the game on national TV (ESPN2) only adds to the Gaels' motivation. Lay it with Saint Mary's.
Marco D'Angelo | CBB Sides Thu, 01/14/10 - 8:00PM
triple-dime bet 531 Wright St -5.0 (-110) BetUS vs 532 Wis.-Green Bay
Analysis: PLAY: WRIGHT ST
RATING: TRIPLE DIME PLAY
I love the set up on this game as Wright St comes off a narrow win in their last game but it must be noted that the narrow win over Valparaiso was the game immediately following their Big Home Showdown with Butler who has been the class of the Conference the last several years. Wright St was flat off of the Butler Game but won't be flat tonight as they travel out on the road to play Wisconsin Green Bay who is coming off a loss to their Rival Wisconsin-Milwaukee. Great spot for a Massacre by the road team as I have them winning by 9 or more’ points. Take WRIGHT ST as MARCO'S 7* MASSACRE GAME.
Marco Rated this Play a 7* on his Executive Late Phone Service
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