1-16-10

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 1-16-10

Tom Freese Blue Line Club NBA 10* LINESMAKERS ERROR SIDE WINNER SATURDAY!

Tyreke Evans is averaging 20.4 points a nght. The sky is the limit for this kid. Jason Tompson chips in with 14.3 points a night. Ben Udrih scores 13.7 points a night and dishes out for assits a game. Andomri Casspi scores 12.7 points a night while Spencer Hawes 10-8 points a night. The underdog in this series is 4-0 ATS the last 4 meetings. The loss of Gilbert Arenas and his felony gun possesion hurts the Wizards big time. Antwan Jamison is now the go to guy. He averages 22.8 points a game. Caron Butler scores 16.8 points an night while Brendan Haywood, Randy Foye, and Mike Miller all average just under 10 points a game. The Wizards are 1-9 ATS their last 10 home games vs. a team with a losing road record LINESMAKERS ERROR PLAY ON SACRAMENTO +

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 1-16-10

Bob Balfe

NFL

Saints -7 over Cardinals

Colts -6.5 over Ravens

NBA

Heat +4 over Thunder

NCAA Basketball

Pittsburgh -2 over Louisville

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 1-16-10

ATS Hockey Lock of year

TB/Flor over 5.5

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 1-16-10

Dennis Hill

500* New Orleans Saints -7
300* New Orleans/Arizona Under 57
300* Indianapolis -6.5

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 1-16-10

Marc Lawrence

College Basketball Underdog GOM

Colorado

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 1-16-10

Handicapper: Nite Owl Sports
Sport: NFL Football
Game: Arizona Cardinals @ New Orleans Saints - Saturday January 16, 2010 4:30 pm
Pick: 3 units ATS: Arizona Cardinals +7 (-110)

We’ve read for years all of this crap about playoff teams playing at home off a bye week against a team that played and won the week before having a big advantage, especially if their opponent won on the road. And we recall once about 10-15 years ago when former LA Rams Head Coach George Allen had all the “talking heads’ at ESPN nodding in agreement as he lectured them about how important it was for playoff teams to get that extra week off, to rest and “heal” before resuming battle in the playoffs, and he predicted that all four “rested” home teams in the second round would “win easily.” Well guess what? Not only did none of those four rested home faves cover ATS, none of them even won SU. And we don’t buy into that “extra rest BS” now any more than we did 20 years ago (which was not at all). Instead, we believe that both positive and negative momentum are much more significant, especially in this round. And this WE, AZ clearly has a ton of positive momentum and confidence after their thrilling OT win over a GB team that had “trashed them in Phoenix the week before, in a game that the Pack obviously cared more about than the Cards, who had nothing to gain (except injuries) with a win in that final regular season game., On the other hand, the NO Saints still appear to be in “no man’s land,” momentum wise, after losing their “perfect” (to that point) season three weeks ago with a home loss to a Dallas team that is suddenly victorious in “playoff time” TY, followed by a “no show’ the following week, a shocking OT loss AT HOME to the lowly Tampa Bay Bucs, one of their three wins TY. And no momentum was regained in losing their regular season finale at Carolina, a game where Saints’ HC Sean Payton decided to rest most of his starters and protect them from injury. And while we have no doubt that the NO players are more healthy now than they have been in awhile, this team has totally lost all of the positive momentum they had earlier in the season, which they started out like a house on fire, putting up numbers and racking up ATS covers that rivaled the 2007 New England Patriots. But they peaked too soon, especially on offense, having scored 40> points on four of their first six opponents, but not reaching the 40 point mark the rest of the season. And since week 13, they have failed to even get to 27 over the last four weeks. But like NE in 2007, the Saints’ troubles at the ‘pay window” actually started in mid-season, as after week six, the Saints went just 2-8 ATS! Sound familiar? In 2007, NE was everybody’s point spread darling in September and October, going 8-0 ATS in the first half of the season, with no point spread to large of an obstacle for them, but then cooled off along with the NE weather in November, going just 2-6 ATS in the second half of the season, followed by a money-burning 0-3 ATS in the playoffs. And now that NO offense which was so productive early in the season, but fell off after the mid-point in the season and dramatically in the last quarter of the season, tries to re-create that early season “magic,” after three weeks of not having any competitive action. And as most astute sports cappers know, and the betting public was reminded by NE in 2007, momentum is best built up naturally over time, and is very difficult to turn on “with a switch.”

But if any team can “flip the momentum switch” for the playoffs, it has to be the Arizona Cardinals, who played with only moderate success in a weak division the last two years, but have ‘turned it on” vs. the top teams, LY at home vs. Dallas, and TY vs. Minnesota, again at home. And LY they rode three straight playoff upset wins (two at home and one away) into the Super Bowl, which they were 30 seconds and a spectacular catch (by Steeler WR Hines Ward) away from victorious “the big one” as well. The Cards recently have been “money in the bank” as underdogs, as they are now a perfect 10-0 ATS in their last 10 in that role, and 8-2 straight-up as well in those same ten games! Moreover, the Cards have improved significantly TY over LY on the road, TY going an impressive 6-2 SU away this season, and giving up just 17 points per game in those 8 roadies. But looking at their road record TY, they played nobody even close to the Saints’ talent level, and LY they were 1-2-1 ATS away vs playoff caliber teams, with their only SU and ATS win out of the four being that playoff game in Carolina which was “gift-wrapped” for them by Panther QB “shaky Jake” Delhomme, who tossed five INTs, three in the 1H, as Cards bolted to a 20 point HT lead on their way to that 33-13 “upset” win. So we are not totally sold on Cards in this road dog role, especially given that these two teams hooked up in the Superdome not that long ago, in December 2007, with NO coming away with a 7 point win and ATS cover as 4 point faves. And in that game, the “numbers” were pretty even, with the main differences being that Brees threw for about 80 more YP than Warner, and AZ was penalized ten times for 78 yards, compared to just 3 for 15 yards for NO (some Creole home cooking?).

Bottom line, AZ and veteran QB Curt Warner (who has played in 3 Super Bowls and is as good as it comes in crunch time) are more experienced in the playoffs than the Saints and Drew Brees (just two playoff games L2Y, at end of 2006 season, and 1-1 SU and 0-2 ATS in those two), and Cards have proven they can win playoffs games, but keep in mind that all of those playoff wins but one were at home, not on the road in front of a throng of noisy hostile fans like the Superdome is sure to have for this game. So while we like Saints’ QB Drew Brees as a “clutch” performer, the Saints seem to have more question marks here than Arizona. And it will be interesting to see if Kurt Warner can outperform Drew Brees here and lead his team to another playoff victory. While we have not yet decided if we will take the Cards and the big plus ML odds to win this game SU, we will take them ATS with this comfy 7 point “cushion,” knowing that AZ is 15-6 ATS over the past three seasons vs. victorious teams, including 8-1 ATS vs. top teams (those with a W-L record of .750 or better).

So based on the above, we’ll take the Cards and the 7 points here for 3 units.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 1-16-10

NSA
.
NFL Baltimore @ Indianapolis 8:15 PM EST 20* Baltimore +6.5
NFL Arizona @ New Orleans 4:30 PM EST 20* New Orleans -7
CBB Missouri @ Oklahoma 1:00 PM EST 20* Oklahoma +3.5(BIG 12 GOY)
CBB Syracuse @ West Virginia 12:00 PM EST 10* Syracuse +4.5
CBB Louisville @ Pittsburgh 12:00 PM EST 10* Louisville +2
CBB Utah @ UNLV 10:00 PM EST 10* UNLV -11.5
NBA Miami @ Oklahoma City 8:05 PM EST 10* Oklahoma

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 1-16-10

ras

Towson/Del Under 141 (line moved down, but back up to around 141 1/2)
Delware -5
James Madison -1.5
Denver -3
Troy +2
CS Fullerton -5.5
New Mex. St. -3

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 1-16-10

Psychic - Private Members Area

NFL

2 unit over 44 Balt-Ind
3 unit over 56 Az-NO (best bet)
3 unit Arizona +7 (best bet)
4 unit Indianapolis -6.5 (major)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 1-16-10

Malinsky-

Mike Montgomery?s Cal squad is loaded with quickness but lacks size.
So naturally they know they need to run and push pace to be
successful. That led to a 93-88 road win against a Washington State
team that they matched up well against on Thursday night. But it is
an entirely different story here. Now they go up against an opponent
that has every bit as much quickness, but also more size and depth,
and at the frenetic pace that we are going to see, the Bears face a
difficult challenge to stay in contact over the course of the full 40
minutes.

Here is Montgomery?s problem in a nutshell ? despite jumping out to a
28-8 lead on Thursday, which should have created a game flow that
could have generated some rest for the starters, the game was never
fully under control. As such the Cal starting five played 173 of the
200 floor minutes, scoring 91 of the 93 points. Now the quick
turn-around to a game that starts at 11:30 on their body clocks
exacerbates those issues, and with Jorge Gutierrez (seven starts,
21.0 minutes per game) not with the team, and Markhuri Sanders-Frison
(10 starts and 17.1 minutes) sitting out on Thursday and not better
than questionable for today because of a back injury, there are few
trustworthy places to turn.

Lorenzo Romar faces no such issues. If anything his problem has been
perhaps a little too much depth, which has meant some chemistry
issues (only Quincy Poindexter and Isaiah Thomas have started every
game), but he believed he found a key by getting the hustle and
defense of Justin Holiday into the starting lineup for the first
time, and the entire team responded with a 94-61 drubbing of Stanford
that was their best game of the season. From Romar afterwards -
?Justin Holiday was the catalyst to this win. He was inserted into
the starting lineup because that things that he does best were the
things that we were lacking.? Holiday finished with six points,
seven rebounds and three steals, and keyed a defense that at one
point had generated more turnovers (11) than shots allowed (10).

Washington?s bench played 87 minutes, and generated 35 points and 18
rebounds. The Huskies are much better set to play with a high level
of energy in this setting, and we will call for them to perform much
as they did last season ? in the second game of Pac 10 weekend
clusters LY they were 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS, utilizing many of the same
edges this matchup brings.

4* #569 KENTUCKY over AUBURN

On Thursday night we thought that Auburn was in an ideal situation at
Tennessee ? the Tigers were catching the Volunteers in an awkward
sandwich in between much bigger games vs. Kansas and Mississippi, and
were also up against a team that did not have the tools to exploit
their lack of size and depth. But even with a 12-point lead in the
first half their weaknesses were fully in play, lacking the physical
and mental toughness vs. that class of competition. So what happens
here when the setting changes in a major way? It is ugly again.

Consider how much different this set-up is. Kentucky brings much more
size and depth that Tennessee. The Wildcats also have no reason to be
distracted, having had three full days since that confidence-boosting
win at Tennessee, and they do not play again until a home game vs.
Arkansas next Saturday. It will mean the proper focus and energy at
the start of the game, and also no reason to let up at all. And that
is awful news for Jeff Lebo and his non-existent front-court,
especially since they are the ones that bring fatigue to the table,
with key cogs DeWayne Reed, Frankie Sullivan and Lucas Hargrove on
the court for 100 minutes on Thursday. They allowed Tennessee to
convert an embarrassing 24-33 on 2-point FG attempts, and there is
little that they can do to keep this from being a dunk and layup fest
for Kentucky.

This will not be a hostile environment for the Wildcats to overcome ?
Auburn only drew 5,638 for the S.E.C. home opener last Saturday, and
there are plenty of tickets available for fans that will be wearing
Kentucky blue. John Calipari has them playing with the tenacity to
take care of business in matchups such as this one, and the home team
lacks the will to counter.

4* #580 BAYLOR over OKLAHOMA STATE

One of those absolute truisms of college basketball is that teams
that do not have much of an inside game on offense struggle on the
road, where outside shooting in a different environment creates a
lower efficiency level. So what happens to a team in a game in which
they will have no inside game at all? That is Oklahoma State?s
plight here.

With no post threat at all on offense, Travis Ford?s team relies on
either the guards penetrating to the basket, or long perimeter
jumpers. Their quickness and athleticism enables them to get away
with that at home in front of a frenzied crowd, but the expected road
struggles have already been there. In their three true road games
they have shot only 36.7 percent, managing just 26 assists in 196 FG
attempts, and in what could almost be classified as a road affair,
that loss to Rhode Island in Connecticut, they were a similar 19-53
from the field. As bad as those numbers are it gets even worse here,
as they face not only the best defense they have taken on all season,
but one that will build a wall near the basket that State can not
scale.

Baylor brings an NBA-sized starting trio up from in 7-0 Josh Lomers,
6-10 Ekpe Udoh and 6-19 Anthony Jones, and they are getting out of
that size what they should ? they lead the nation in rebounding
margin, and are 6th in blocked shots. They have out-rebounded all 15
opponents, with nine of those margins in double figures. Michigan
transfer Udoh has been the key, averaging 14.5 points, 11.5 rebounds
and 4.3 blocks per game, and despite having to sit out the first four
games he still has nearly twice as many blocks (48) as the entire
Oklahoma State team (28). But the Bears are not just about size ?
they have a savvy veteran back-court in LaceDarius Dunn (18.7 ppg)
and Tweety Carter (16.2 ppg and 6.9 assists), and show an
unselfishness across the board that has four different players with
32 or more assists already. It tells us that the patience and focus
is there to take full advantage of those mismatches down low, and
with the ball in the hands of those two veteran guards at crunch time
we can also expect a safe close-out at the FT line, where Carter is
knocking them down at 85.3 percent and Dunn at 82.8.


4* #606 MARSHALL over TULANE

In stepping in against Tulane in the first game for the Green Wave
without mainstay PG Kevin Sims, and teammate Aaron Holmes, a tandem
that coach Dave Dickerson called ?The heart and soul of this
program?, our timing was not necessarily bad to play against
them, it was simply wrong to play on a Rice team that does not
show much toughness at all on the road. But now the setting is
entirely different, and we call for the wheels to come off tonight
against a deep and aggressive opponent that can exacerbate all of
those Tulane issues.

Donnie Jones has a deep and talented group to work with at Marshall,
and with true FR Hassan Whiteside putting his 7-0/235 frame into play
Jones is utilizing that depth the way that he should ? with the
nation?s #1 shot blocker (87, in only 378 floor minutes) around the
basket, he is extending his defense the length of the court and
attacking aggressively on the perimeter. That is a huge headache for
the Green Wave with the leadership of Sims in the back-court, and the
Green Wave will be subject to the kind of crescendo runs that have
led the Thunderding Herd to a perfect 10-0 mark at home this season,
with eight of the wins coming by 13 points or more, and in their
three lined games on this court since December 1st they shattered the
pointspread by 36 points.

The Marshall confidence level got a big boost in that 2-0 SU and ATS
CUSA road trip earlier in the week, winning despite that great depth
not being there ? Aaron Hayman did not play in either game, and
Damier Pitts served a suspension at Central Florida. The fact that
they could win both games is a sign of how much this group is
maturing, and now they get both back tonight, which enables an
aggressive approach from the opening tipoff. Not only will that cause
turnover havoc for Tulane early in the game, but in the first road
outing without those veteran leaders the poise to play well from
behind will not be there.


4* #521 SYRACUSE over WEST VIRGINIA

It is not often that we find this much money being wagered against a team that is this good, but with the markets now opening up the 5’s as a “win” number for this matchup we are in play. Syracuse is the absolute epitome of a “tough out” – a team that brings the talent and toughness to never back down on any opposing court, and the belief that any game can be won outright. And the Orange absolutely can win this one. Bob Huggins has a lot of size and athleticism on his West Virginia roster but the Mountaineers are not going to match up well at all against zone defenses. Now they will see one of the nation’s best, and that leaves them hard-pressed to merely escape with the win, much less get any kind of margin, with the fragile 66.7 percent free throw shooting a late-game headache for a favorite trying to extend a margin

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 1-16-10

Marc Lawrence

UCLA pk

We recommend a 3-unit play on UCLA.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 1-16-10

Kelso BB

50 units Arkansas -2
15 units Nebraska -3
5 units Baylor -4.5
4 units OSU -5 (Ohio State)
3 units San Diego St -12

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 1-16-10

ferringo

1-Unit Play. Take #522 West Virginia (-4.5) over Syracuse (Noon, Saturday, Jan. 16)
1-Unit Play. Take #526 Pittsburgh (Pk) over Louisville (Noon, Saturday, Jan. 16)
0.5-Unit Play. Take #519 Clemson (-5) over N.C. State (Noon, Saturday, Jan. 16)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 1-16-10

Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons

New Orleans -7

For a number of different reasons I believe we're getting good value on the home-side in this situation:

While I believe last week's high scoring game was an aberration, Drew Brees and company will be licking their chops after having the week off to heal up some nagging injuries and after watching Aaron Rodgers shred the Cardinals depleted secondary.

Facing an Arizona defense that gave up 500 yards on two occasions this season and let the Packers rack up 403 through the air would seem to have Brees salivating.

Keep in mind that Arizona is 1-4 ATS its last five games vs. New Orleans.

On the other side of the field: The Saints (13-3) didn’t put up 51 points this season, but scored 45 or more four times in the first six weeks and at least 35 three more times in starting 13-0; although they stumbled down the stretch, I expect with the extra week off that Brees and company will come out as efficient as ever.

Remember, New Orleans is 13-3 SU its last 16 and always plays tough in front of the home town crowd; 10-3 SU its last 13 at the Superdome.

Bottom line: No need to overanalyze this one; the Saints are well-rested, get home field advantage and get to play a tired and banged up Cardinals squad; look for NEW ORLEANS to move to 4-2 ATS this season vs. teams with a winning record and for Arizona to fall to 0-2 ATS vs. NFC South division opponents!

6* SAINTS

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 1-16-10

Tony George

Kansas St. -5.5 vs Colorado

Take the red hot Wildcats on the road here against a average Colorado team who will get beat to death on the glass here. K State has a 15 rebound advantage on the offensive glass versus the Buffs in this game, and have ben scoring 84 ppg their last 5 games while the Buffs in their last 5 games have averaged 76 ppg allowed on defense. K State 11-5 ATS last 16 meetings and the Wildcats have covered 7 out of their last 8 games overall. Play 1 Unit on Kansas State