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Re: 1-16-10
Seabass NFL
100* NO
400* over Ravens/Colts
Seabass NFL
100* NO
400* over Ravens/Colts
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Re: 1-16-10
Doc NBA 1/16
4-Unit Play #504 Take Washington +2 Over Sacramento (7 p.m. EST, Saturday)
How are you going to make a team that is 3-14 on the road a favorite over anyone? We think this line is off and that the wrong team is favored. The Wizards stink but this team has won eight of the last nine in this series straight up and it has covered in four of the last five. Sacramento has lost their ATS magic lately and they have not covered a line in six straight games yet tonight’s line would indicate that they have been playing well. They have not and they just don’t seem to have the confidence they had a couple weeks ago when they were ATS darlings of the NBA. Kevin Martin is back for Sacramento and we think this might disrupt chemistry a bit until he gels with the team.
2-Unit Play #505 Take New Orleans/Indiana UNDER 206 1/2 (6 p.m. EST, Saturday)
The Hornets have been playing some pretty legit defense lately. They have allowed only one team to reach the Century Mark in the last nine games (in regulation) and they have allowed an average of just 96 PPG during that span (with last night’s OT period against Detroit taken out of the equation). Indiana has played a bunch of up-tempo, no defense teams lately and we believe that has caused the oddsmakers to post a number that is too high here tonight. We had this number listed at 204 so we think there is a bit of nice value here. The under is 19-6-1 in the last 26 meetings including 8-3-1 in the last 12 meetings in Indiana.
NOTE: We wanted to take the Clippers tonight getting +8 ½ at home against Cleveland but Chris Kaman’s status is still uncertain. If he is a go, and the line is over 7 we would recommend the Clippers as an opinion play but this selection will not be graded and not count towards our record win or lose. We think there would be some nice value on anything over 7 with Kaman in the game but we just can’t pull the trigger with his status for the game so uncertain.Comment
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Re: 1-16-10
MTI 5* Playoff Game of the Year
5-Star Arizona +7 over New Orleans - There is one sure way to lose money betting football and that is betting that a team with a good season-to-date record is going to break out of a downward trend in performance. The Steelers are a good example. The won the Super Bowl last season and they won five straight to get to 6-2, but they fell apart thereafter and the kept getting bet. After losing three straight they were a 14' point home favorite over the Raiders and lost 27-24. Then they were a double-digit road favorite over the Browns and lost that one 13-6. The Patriots are another example. Clearly, this season's edition of the Patriots is not nearly as good as the past, but they were made a 3' point home favorite over an excellent Ravens team last week. The Saints are reeling and everyone expects them to be able to flip the switch and turn it one for the playoffs. They have lost and failed to cover three straight - two of them as a TD+ home favorite - and they are laying a TD again - this time vs a team that went to the Super Bowl last season. We're grabbing the points.
Kurt Warner was 29-of-33 last week with 5 TD and no interceptions. He actually had more TD passes than incompletions. The Cardinals offense moved the ball down the field so crisply, they only had FIVE third down conversion attempts the entire game and they converted three of them. During the regular season, the Packers were #1 in the NFC against the rush, allowing a stingy 3.59 yards per carry. The Cardinals averaged 6.8 yards per rush against them last week.
The Packers were #1 in the NFC in total defense during the regular season, allowing only 284.4 yards per game. The Cardinals had 531 yards of offense last week and scored seven touchdowns against them. AND the Cardinals sacked Aaron Rodgers five times.
They have to be wondering why they are a TD dog against a team that has lost three straight when they are the ones that went to the super bowl last season while the Saints were 8-8 last season.
There is a very nice league-wide system that points to the Cardinals here. It involves one of the most underutilized stats in NFL handicapping - third conversion rate. NFL teams are a perfect 21-0 ATS as a FG+ underdog the week after a win as a dog in which they converted at least 50% of their third downs and failed on fewer than eight third downs attempts, as long as the game is not on a Thursday. These FG+ dogs have won 11 of the 21 games straight up and have covered by an average of 8.1 pp
The Saints have allowed 4.52 yards per carry this season and the only team in the NFC that has allowed more is the Buccaneers. The Cardinals have been especially potent against such opponents, as they are 8-0 ATS as a dog when facing a team that has allowed more than 4.5 yards per carry season-to-date, surpassing the linesmakers' expectations by an average of a staggering 17.4 ppg and winning each of the last four straight up.
Also, Arizona is a perfect 9-0 ATS (+11.1 ppg) as a dog after a game in which they sacked the opposing quarterback at least 4 times. The Cardinals are 3-0 SU in this situation this season, winning every game by at least a TD despite the fact that they were the dog each time.
The Cardinals are obviously a passing team and will set up the run with the pass. New Orleans simply has not been competitive against similar teams. The Saints are 0-18 ATS as a home favorite vs a team that has rushed the ball fewer than 24.5 times per game and has passed the ball at least 33.5 times per game season-to-date, failing to cover by an average of 10.1 ppg.
The linesmakers must think that the Saints can just flip on a switch and get back to the high level of play they had at the beginning of the season. New Orleans simply peaked too early and the Cardinals are just starting to hit their stride. Check out the money-line for this one.
MTi's FORECAST: Arizona 35 NEW ORLEANS 24Comment
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Re: 1-16-10
Steve Duemig
Saturday
25 Dime - Saints
There are a lot of people that were really down on NO in their last couple of games. They even lost to the Bucs in OT. But that was because their field goal kicker missed a chip shot as time expired. In the final game they rested their starters. People forgot how much money they made early in the season when the linesmaker couldn't make the line high enough on the Saints and they were covering everything. Well oddsmakers tend to catch up over the course of the season and they did with the Saints. That's why people are down on them. The Saints ARE a good team. They can score they can play defense and they have the best play caller in NFL. They are also going against one of the very best playoff QB's in the history of the game.
But this game I believe will come down to the defense of AZ. They are really banged up and the are playing on a short week on the road against a very rested Saint team. The Saints can be very balanced both running and passing and Brees can create matchup problems for anyone. It will be very difficult for the AZ defense to get pressure and keep up with the Saints. I believe that this line is more than off. I have the Saints as a double digit favorite in my lines.
10 Dime - Ravens
Baltimore got off to the best start imaginable last week with Rice busting the first play for 83 yards and a TD and the Ravens never looked back. They forced early turnovers and stunned the Pats.
I don't think that happens this week though. I know by heart the defense that Indy plays because they played it for so long here in Tampa. Here's what the Colt F will not allow the Ravens to do. Run the Ball. They will not come after Flacco what so ever. No how no way. They will not be fooled by play action. They will do everything to stop and disrupt the run and will make sure that the running back has the ball. So no play action fooling for them. Flacco will have to throw to beat the Colts. No 34 yards passing thi week for a win. But the Ravens play good D and that is something you should all look for. We said last week when we were one of the very few that selected the Ravens in the gme with NE that if you play D you can "hang around" any team. Yea the Ravens have lost like 7 straight to the Colts but they have kept them all close. I look at this game as a carbon copy of the Colts first loss vs the Jets. They were beating the Jets with their starters in but not by much. Once they pulled Manning and crew we know what happened. The Ravens are the same team. So look for a Colt win but look for the Ravens to hang around enough to cover.Comment
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Re: 1-16-10
Stephen Nover
Saturday's Picks
75-Dime Colts
The Ravens had their Super Bowl last week upsetting New England.
The Ravens don't have the secondary or passing attack to keep up with Peyton Manning, especially in a dome setting on carpet.
Yes, the Ravens still have defensive talent. They held the Colts to 17 points in the team's first meeting in November. But a lot has happened since then. The Ravens no longer have their two top cornerbacks.
Manning will be able to exploit and take advantage of Baltimore's remaining top three cornerbacks - Domonique Foxworth, Chris Carr and Frank Walker. Manning has a healthy receiving corps after a two-week layoff.
The Colts will be anxious to come out fired-up proving to their critics they did the right thing by resting their starters during most of the final two weeks of the regular season.
Indianapolis has a bend-but-don't-break type of defense. The Colts allowed 19.2 points per game, which ranked them eighth in scoring defense. If you discount their past three games when they didn't care, the Colts only surrendered more than 17 points three times in 13 games.
Ray Rice is an excellent all-purpose back, but the Colts will be able to key on him. Joe Flacco no longer presents a serious quarterback threat because of a hip injury that has severely limited his mobility and affected the way he's throwing the ball. He had only two downfield completions last week.
The Ravens were extremely lucky last week that the Patriots committed turnovers and Rice was able to break a long run early. Those factors aren't going to fall into place for them this time.
25-Dime Cardinals
I can't go over a total this high, but I do expect a lot of points to be scored. I also expect a red-hot Kurt Warner to be able to trade, if not exceed, Drew Brees' point total.
The Saints haven't been sharp in their last three games. They've been idle now for two weeks so expect some rust. Their running back situation probably is worse than being reported if the team was so desperate to sign a washed-up Deuce McAllister.
New Orleans' secondary has been beat up, but should be close to 100 percent. However, respected pass rusher Charles Grant is out and Sedrick Ellis, their best run stuffer, is less than 100 percent. The Cardinals have upgraded their ground attack thanks to rookie Beanie Wells, who has fresh legs having not been used that much this season.
The Cardinals have covered their past five post-season games during the last two years. They have proven to be resilient and a dangerous underdog under Ken Whisenhunt, who can match the excellent play-calling ability of Saints coach Sean Payton.
Keep in mind, too, the Saints faced the league's easiest schedule. No team got to play against more rookie and backup quarterbacks than New Orleans, which drew Josh Freeman twice, Kevin Kolb, Chris Redman, Matt Moore, Mark Sanchez and Matthew Stafford.
Warner is a Hall of Famer. He showed that even without Anquan Boldin he can shred a good defense. The Saints' strength is their offense, not their defense. Larry Fitzgerald gives Arizona the most dangerous playmaker on the field.
The Cardinals are actually better than last year's Super Bowl team. The Cardinals didn't lose two games in a row all season. They had a 1-4 stretch late last season. This year's Cardinals also can run the ball better, has playoff experience and confidence and has proven big-play defensive performers in Dominque Rodgers-Cromartie, Adrian Wilson, Darnell Dockett and Karlos Dansby to go with their high-potent offense.Comment
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Re: 1-16-10
Mike Lineback
4.5* (*POD*) NFL Teaser 7pts New Orleans / Baltimore Ravens
4* Indiana Pacers -2.5
4* San Antonio Spurs +1
4* Oklahoma City Thunder -3
Opinions
Phoenix/Charlotte OVER 208 -110
Charlotte Bobcats -2.5 -110
Miami/Oklahoma City UNDER 194 -110
New Orleans Saints -6.5 -125 (1/2 pt buy)Comment
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Re: 1-16-10
DWAYNE BRYANT
110 NOS -6.5 (-115) Bodog vs 109 ARI Analysis: Note: I waited a…s long as I possibly could because I thought the public action on Arizona would give us -6.5 -110. That hasn't happened, so buy the half-point down to -6.5 if you can.
Analysis coming up.Comment
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