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Although I lost with the Oilers vs. the Canucks on Wednesday night as +180 underdogs; for a number of different reasons I believe we're getting excellent value on them once again; tonight they will finally break out of their slump as they catch a Stars team coming off a difficult road loss less than 24 hours previous:
When I handicap a game I take into account trends, a teams recent play of late, line value, among many other things; one of the biggest factors though is "situations".
Keep in mind, for every single game on the big board, all the Sports Books are trying to do is even the action, having half of the public wager on one side, and half on the other; public perception is that the Oilers suck and the Stars are a perennial favorite.
The reason this line is almost a "pick 'em" is because the oddsmakers know that Edmonton has been playing better of late and is catching a tired Dallas team that is an absolutely horrible 0-8-2 away from home since beating San Jose in a shootout Dec. 11. The Stars led 2-1 early last night, but the Canucks scored three straight goals with two coming in the third period.
“That’s been symptomatic of a lot of the games we’ve not performed well in,” said Dallas coach Marc Crawford, whose team concludes this three-game trip Sunday at Colorado. “You can look at probably 40, 45 minutes of the game where we were pleased, but when the game got on the line their level elevated and they played about 15 minutes and won.”
Crawford's return to Colorado has to be taken into consideration in this case as well as Dallas could be caught looking ahead to that matchup.
Edmonton is last in the West, and 0-7-2 since beating Toronto on Dec. 30 for the club’s worst losing streak since a 12-game skid from Feb. 25-March 21, 2007.
They'll look to break out of the slump against a shaky Marty Turco most likely; Turco is 14-13-8 with a 2.84 goals-against average, but he’s allowed 18 goals in his last five starts. Turco is 17-6-2 with a 2.34 GAA versus the Oilers — a figure that rises to 3.12 during a 1-2-2 stretch.
Alex Auld has been better than Turco, but if he is in the end called upon to start tonight, I expect the backup to be tired.
The Oilers have scored 11 goals in their last six games, but their struggles in killing penalties has been an even bigger issue recently. Over the last four games, Edmonton’s opponents have converted seven of 14 power-play chances, and all three Canucks goals came with the man advantage; expect Pat Quinn to have addressed this issue thoroughly.
Devan Dubnyk got the second star in Wednesday nights loss to Vancouver; Jeff Deslauriers may get the chance for the big win tonight; he's 9-14-3 with a 3.18 GAA this season and 1-1-0 with a 2.89 GAA all-time against Dallas.
Portland is 26-17 overall this year while Boston comes in with a 27-13 record on the season. It appears Portland will be without Brandon Roy here tonight but this is really a very good all around team. Boston has had more success on the road this year than at home where they are only 11-7 SU on the season. Boston is 2-8 ATS this year after an upset loss as a favorite. We'll play Portland for 3 units tonight! Thanks and good luck, Rocky.
Orlando already beat Sacramento in CA by 21 points on the 12th of this month. Sacramento is giving up 104 ppg on the road and the KEY here is two things. Orlando is healthy and at home, Vince Carter will play tonight, and this the Kings 5th road game in row in 7 days..a brutal stretch where they have lost every game, and 9 out of their last 10 overall. A HUGE frontcourt mismatch in the Magic’s favor.
Orlando already beat Sacramento in CA by 21 points on the 12th of this month. Sacramento is giving up 104 ppg on the road and the KEY here is two things. Orlando is healthy and at home, Vince Carter will play tonight, and this the Kings 5th road game in row in 7 days..a brutal stretch where they have lost every game, and 9 out of their last 10 overall. A HUGE frontcourt mismatch in the Magic’s favor.
Larry Brown has this Charlotte team clicking right now and playing with real confidence. The Bobcats will be going after their seventh straight victory tonight and that would be a franchise first. We rode this team the other night against the Heat and they ran them right out of the building. Stephen Jackson and Gerald Wallace are playing like the dynamic duo right now and have never in my memory played at a higher level. The Hawks are off a home win against the Kings and are looking to complete a winning 4-1 homestand, they very well might get that done but I really like the level this Charlotte team is competing at and feel they will keep this thing close to the very end. Just too many points in my view here, Triple Star Release on Charlotte getting the seven points.
Thanks to the Rockets covering just one of their previous six games overall and losing 20 of their last 25 visits to the Alamo, we are able to grab tremendous value on the visitors here in this Southwest Division matchup. Houston has been idle since Monday and is 18-3 ATS when playing on the road coming off four or more ATS losses. This will be their only away game in an 11-game stretch as they begin a six-game home stand following this game. But first things first. San Antonio is not shooting well of late, making barely over 40% of their attempts these last four games (three losses) while averaging just 89.3 points per game. The Rockets have revenge for an eight-point home loss in November and under HC Adelman, the team is 17-5 ATS when playing with revenge for a loss where they scored 85 or less points. Take Houston.
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