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Re: 1-23-10
Malinsky
4* #522 MINNESOTA/MICHIGAN STATE Under
It was only 10 days ago that these two played to a stodgy 113 at East
Lansing in a 60-53 Michigan State win that was devoid of tempo, and
saw a pair of outstanding fundamental defenses allow few easy scoring
opportunities. The projection of 142 was way off, a result of math
models using non-conference results that did not have much bearing on
a Tubby Smith vs. Tom Izzo matchup. So with the six Smith/Izzo
encounters playing to an average of 126.5, and the points coming so
begrudgingly in the first encounter, have we seen the proper
adjustment? Not at all. The tweaking has only been three points, and
that leaves plenty of value for a matchup that again lacks tempo,
easy shot opportunities, and free throw efficiency (neither team is
shooting 70 percent from the line).
There is an added cloud here, the suspension of Minnesota PG Al
Nolen. It is tough enough to lose a veteran at that key position, but
even worse when Smith does not have a natural back-up. Nolen had
nearly twice as many assists (24) as anyone else on the team (13)
through six Big 10 games, and the first option is going to be
sophomore Devoe Joseph, who is more of a natural shooting guard. That
is going to slow things down even more for the Minnesota offense,
which had more TO?s than assists in the first meeting, and is likely
to have a similar fate. But the Gophers will guard tenaciously in the
return match, forcing this into a half-court game, and the Michigan
State offense is nothing special when the Spartans are kept out of
the open floor.
4* #557 OHIO STATE over WEST VIRGINIA
Many times when we focus on a team as being a ?tough out? it is a
case of finding those subtle factors that can make them competitive
as an underdog in a hostile environment. That is not the case for
Ohio State in this one. There is no need for subtleties; the Buckeyes
are an excellent team without a weakness, featuring arguably the
nation?s best player in Evan Turner (18.6 ppg, 9.7 rpg and 72
assists), and excellent floor balance (four other State players are
scoring at least 13.0 per game). They play defense, they hit the
boards, they take excellent care of the basketball (+56 in assist to
TO ratio), and that means that they are not going to be out of the
hunt against anyone ? hence the 4-1 SU record with Turner on the
court against teams that were ranked in the Top 25.
But there is also something extra today ? they bring a major chip on
their shoulders. The darkest moment of their last two seasons was a
shocking 76-48 drubbing suffered in Columbus vs. West Virginia LY,
and we believe that brings a supreme level of intensity for this
payback setting. Against a vulnerable Mountaineer team it opens the
door for the outright upset.
West Virginia is not equal to the sum of the parts, another classic
example of what chemistry means on the basketball court. Bob Huggins
has a roster that is loaded with talented forwards, and it will be no
surprise to see Devin Ebanks and Da?Sean Butler playing in the NBA.
But the pieces do not fit well, and as such they have been an awkward
under-achiever. Yes, they can blow out weak teams because of the
overall talent, but they are 0-5 ATS this season when the line has
not been at least -9 (we count that O.T. win at Seton Hall as a
pointspread loss in regulation because they were -4), a sign of the
difficulties executing against good teams. They do not have a post
threat on offense, and there is not a true point guard to run the
show, which makes it difficult for Ebanks, Butler, Wellington Smith
and Kevin Jones to find operating room ? all four could basically
play the same position. After toying with a lineup in which all
starters were at least 6-6, Huggins has made the commitment to start
Darryl Bryant at the point, but he is not a natural for the position,
shooting only 40.0, and with a 1.4 assist to turnover ratio that
leaves much to be desired.
This is anybody?s game to win outright, with Ohio State having the
big time players to relish a hostile environment, and that makes the
points being offered an excellent cushion.
5* #568 DETROIT over WRIGHT STATE
The pieces have come together seamlessly at Detroit this season, with
transfers Chase Simon and Eli Holman quickly developing a chemistry
with the rest of the Titan roster, which already included another
high-profile transfer in Xavier Keeling that played LY. An August
trip to Spain certainly helped in terms of that development. Now Ray
McCallum has a squad with a veteran leader at PG (SR Woody Payne, who
plays game #101 in a Detroit uniform this afternoon), and plenty of
size, athleticism and tenacity. It is just that no one seems to be
paying attention, which is what this line tells us.
Detroit is not just winning games, but the Titans are winning them
the right way ? in a 5-3 opening to Horizon Conference play they have
allowed only 37.9 percent shooting and 79 assists; are leading the
league in getting to the free throw line; and are +6.3 in rebounds
per game and +18 in blocked shots. Only the fact that some bitter
close games have gotten away (in a 5-3 Horizon record they trailed at
the end of regulation by a combined six points in the three defeats)
has kept things from being even better, but that works for our
purposes here, helping to set up the outstanding line value.
Here is the simplest way to break that value down ? Detroit and
Wright are Horizon travel partners, which means that they have played
the same exact conference opponents on the same courts to this point.
Through those eight games the Titans hold a 31-point advantage, and
that is despite the fact that key inside cog Holman (5th in the
nation at 61.5 percent shooting, with 8.8 rebounds and 2.8 blocked
shots per game) did not play in two of them. Detroit has been flat
out better, and with today being Homecoming the court advantage is
also worth more than usual. The Titans should be solid favorites, but
yet we get this bargain rate made available.
Wright State is a well-coached team but the Raiders are lacking in
scoring potential up front, a prime reason why they are shooting just
40.5 percent in conference play. Look for them to have long stretches
without finding quality shots against this defense, and eventually to
lose contact as the host pulls away.
4* #610 FLORIDA over SOUTH CAROLINA
No team in the nation is more of a ?One Man Band? than South Carolina
with Devan Downey, and over the next month we are going to find many
situations that we can exploit, as that 2-2 opening to SEC play by
the Gamecocks helps to create a bad power rating going forward. It
all starts here.
If we chart all games this season we can see the Downey presence ? he
has scored more than twice as many points as any other Carolina
player, with the losses of Mike Holmes and Dominique Archie up front
the Gamecocks a blow that will end up being devastating. But in SEC
play that lack of depth has them on an extreme tight-rope ? Downey
has scored 30.5 through those four games, and no one else is even in
double figures. And it is not just a lack of compliment on offense
that becomes an issue, but the fact that they are not taking care of
the basketball (56 TO?s vs. 37 assists in SEC play), playing defense
(conference opponents are shooting 49.5 percent), or hitting the
boards (dead last in the SEC). They opened 2-0 in the league because
they had favorable draws against Auburn and L.S.U. teams that would
not dominate them inside, but in losing the L2 to Vanderbilt and Ole
Miss they have allowed 53.1 percent shooting and lost the battle on
the boards 69-54.
Now it only goes from bad to worse. For once Downey has to not only
face a player of similar size and quickness that can hold him down a
bit in 5-8 Erving Walker, but the fact that the Gators deal with
Walker in practice every deal also helps them to cope with the way
that Downey plays. The rest of this is all Florida. The Gators played
an outstanding floor game in a hostile environment to win at Arkansas
on Thursday night, showing great composure against the Razorback
defense by turning the ball over only seven times, and they dominated
the boards to a 41-29 tune. That ball-handling comes to the forefront
again here, with the only viable South Carolina defensive option
being to force some TO?s, and when that does not happen the precision
of the Florida passing game can find open looks throughout here,
especially as the lack of depth has the Gamecock defense wearing
down. That makes it just a matter of time until the home team pulls
away for an easy win that we expect to reach into double figures.
4* #622 XAVIER over RHODE ISLAND
The Atlantic 10 standings make this appear to be a showdown game,
with each team having one conference loss (both vs. front-runner
Temple), and the oddsmakers are pricing it accordingly. Our take is
different. Xavier is not only better, but physically stronger in a
way that makes it difficult for the underdog to compete on this
court, and with Rhode Island never having won at the Cintas Center,
losing the last four trips by an averaging of 19.3 points, this game
has been set in the wrong category.
Yes, the Rams bring an explosive offense and a 3-1 conference record,
but those wins came over light-weights Fordham, Duquesne and St.
Joseph?s. They do have some legit offensive punch, with their #1 spot
in scoring in the league no fluke, but there are severe shortcomings
elsewhere. The defense has to focus on taking the ball away from
opponents because they are not going to stop many folks around the
basket (allowing 45.0 percent shooting), and they are an awful -4.0
per game in rebounding in A10 play, a true ?awful? because of the
class of competition.
Now consider those rebounding problems as they have to go up against
the likes of 7-0/265 Kenny Frease and 6-9/265 Jason Love. And
consider the defensive difficulties because of the size that they
give up. Double-team the post? Not against this team. You can not sag
off of the explosive Jordan Crawford, who leads the A10 in scoring
and is shooting an excellent 38.9 percent from 3-point range, but
note that as well as Crawford has shot the ball from the perimeter,
teammates Brad Redford (47.5 percent), Dante Jackson (44.4) and Mark
Lyons (40.0) have been even better from long range. Jim Baron just
does not have the answers against this class of opponent on the road.
Xavier has won 26 straight conference home games and the matchups are
ideal to add another, as they score easily and control the boards
against a smaller opponent. And the fact that Rhode Island needs to
run to be successful only makes this better for our purposes,
increasing the tempo and subsequently making the pointspread even
shorter because of the high pace count.
Malinsky
4* #522 MINNESOTA/MICHIGAN STATE Under
It was only 10 days ago that these two played to a stodgy 113 at East
Lansing in a 60-53 Michigan State win that was devoid of tempo, and
saw a pair of outstanding fundamental defenses allow few easy scoring
opportunities. The projection of 142 was way off, a result of math
models using non-conference results that did not have much bearing on
a Tubby Smith vs. Tom Izzo matchup. So with the six Smith/Izzo
encounters playing to an average of 126.5, and the points coming so
begrudgingly in the first encounter, have we seen the proper
adjustment? Not at all. The tweaking has only been three points, and
that leaves plenty of value for a matchup that again lacks tempo,
easy shot opportunities, and free throw efficiency (neither team is
shooting 70 percent from the line).
There is an added cloud here, the suspension of Minnesota PG Al
Nolen. It is tough enough to lose a veteran at that key position, but
even worse when Smith does not have a natural back-up. Nolen had
nearly twice as many assists (24) as anyone else on the team (13)
through six Big 10 games, and the first option is going to be
sophomore Devoe Joseph, who is more of a natural shooting guard. That
is going to slow things down even more for the Minnesota offense,
which had more TO?s than assists in the first meeting, and is likely
to have a similar fate. But the Gophers will guard tenaciously in the
return match, forcing this into a half-court game, and the Michigan
State offense is nothing special when the Spartans are kept out of
the open floor.
4* #557 OHIO STATE over WEST VIRGINIA
Many times when we focus on a team as being a ?tough out? it is a
case of finding those subtle factors that can make them competitive
as an underdog in a hostile environment. That is not the case for
Ohio State in this one. There is no need for subtleties; the Buckeyes
are an excellent team without a weakness, featuring arguably the
nation?s best player in Evan Turner (18.6 ppg, 9.7 rpg and 72
assists), and excellent floor balance (four other State players are
scoring at least 13.0 per game). They play defense, they hit the
boards, they take excellent care of the basketball (+56 in assist to
TO ratio), and that means that they are not going to be out of the
hunt against anyone ? hence the 4-1 SU record with Turner on the
court against teams that were ranked in the Top 25.
But there is also something extra today ? they bring a major chip on
their shoulders. The darkest moment of their last two seasons was a
shocking 76-48 drubbing suffered in Columbus vs. West Virginia LY,
and we believe that brings a supreme level of intensity for this
payback setting. Against a vulnerable Mountaineer team it opens the
door for the outright upset.
West Virginia is not equal to the sum of the parts, another classic
example of what chemistry means on the basketball court. Bob Huggins
has a roster that is loaded with talented forwards, and it will be no
surprise to see Devin Ebanks and Da?Sean Butler playing in the NBA.
But the pieces do not fit well, and as such they have been an awkward
under-achiever. Yes, they can blow out weak teams because of the
overall talent, but they are 0-5 ATS this season when the line has
not been at least -9 (we count that O.T. win at Seton Hall as a
pointspread loss in regulation because they were -4), a sign of the
difficulties executing against good teams. They do not have a post
threat on offense, and there is not a true point guard to run the
show, which makes it difficult for Ebanks, Butler, Wellington Smith
and Kevin Jones to find operating room ? all four could basically
play the same position. After toying with a lineup in which all
starters were at least 6-6, Huggins has made the commitment to start
Darryl Bryant at the point, but he is not a natural for the position,
shooting only 40.0, and with a 1.4 assist to turnover ratio that
leaves much to be desired.
This is anybody?s game to win outright, with Ohio State having the
big time players to relish a hostile environment, and that makes the
points being offered an excellent cushion.
5* #568 DETROIT over WRIGHT STATE
The pieces have come together seamlessly at Detroit this season, with
transfers Chase Simon and Eli Holman quickly developing a chemistry
with the rest of the Titan roster, which already included another
high-profile transfer in Xavier Keeling that played LY. An August
trip to Spain certainly helped in terms of that development. Now Ray
McCallum has a squad with a veteran leader at PG (SR Woody Payne, who
plays game #101 in a Detroit uniform this afternoon), and plenty of
size, athleticism and tenacity. It is just that no one seems to be
paying attention, which is what this line tells us.
Detroit is not just winning games, but the Titans are winning them
the right way ? in a 5-3 opening to Horizon Conference play they have
allowed only 37.9 percent shooting and 79 assists; are leading the
league in getting to the free throw line; and are +6.3 in rebounds
per game and +18 in blocked shots. Only the fact that some bitter
close games have gotten away (in a 5-3 Horizon record they trailed at
the end of regulation by a combined six points in the three defeats)
has kept things from being even better, but that works for our
purposes here, helping to set up the outstanding line value.
Here is the simplest way to break that value down ? Detroit and
Wright are Horizon travel partners, which means that they have played
the same exact conference opponents on the same courts to this point.
Through those eight games the Titans hold a 31-point advantage, and
that is despite the fact that key inside cog Holman (5th in the
nation at 61.5 percent shooting, with 8.8 rebounds and 2.8 blocked
shots per game) did not play in two of them. Detroit has been flat
out better, and with today being Homecoming the court advantage is
also worth more than usual. The Titans should be solid favorites, but
yet we get this bargain rate made available.
Wright State is a well-coached team but the Raiders are lacking in
scoring potential up front, a prime reason why they are shooting just
40.5 percent in conference play. Look for them to have long stretches
without finding quality shots against this defense, and eventually to
lose contact as the host pulls away.
4* #610 FLORIDA over SOUTH CAROLINA
No team in the nation is more of a ?One Man Band? than South Carolina
with Devan Downey, and over the next month we are going to find many
situations that we can exploit, as that 2-2 opening to SEC play by
the Gamecocks helps to create a bad power rating going forward. It
all starts here.
If we chart all games this season we can see the Downey presence ? he
has scored more than twice as many points as any other Carolina
player, with the losses of Mike Holmes and Dominique Archie up front
the Gamecocks a blow that will end up being devastating. But in SEC
play that lack of depth has them on an extreme tight-rope ? Downey
has scored 30.5 through those four games, and no one else is even in
double figures. And it is not just a lack of compliment on offense
that becomes an issue, but the fact that they are not taking care of
the basketball (56 TO?s vs. 37 assists in SEC play), playing defense
(conference opponents are shooting 49.5 percent), or hitting the
boards (dead last in the SEC). They opened 2-0 in the league because
they had favorable draws against Auburn and L.S.U. teams that would
not dominate them inside, but in losing the L2 to Vanderbilt and Ole
Miss they have allowed 53.1 percent shooting and lost the battle on
the boards 69-54.
Now it only goes from bad to worse. For once Downey has to not only
face a player of similar size and quickness that can hold him down a
bit in 5-8 Erving Walker, but the fact that the Gators deal with
Walker in practice every deal also helps them to cope with the way
that Downey plays. The rest of this is all Florida. The Gators played
an outstanding floor game in a hostile environment to win at Arkansas
on Thursday night, showing great composure against the Razorback
defense by turning the ball over only seven times, and they dominated
the boards to a 41-29 tune. That ball-handling comes to the forefront
again here, with the only viable South Carolina defensive option
being to force some TO?s, and when that does not happen the precision
of the Florida passing game can find open looks throughout here,
especially as the lack of depth has the Gamecock defense wearing
down. That makes it just a matter of time until the home team pulls
away for an easy win that we expect to reach into double figures.
4* #622 XAVIER over RHODE ISLAND
The Atlantic 10 standings make this appear to be a showdown game,
with each team having one conference loss (both vs. front-runner
Temple), and the oddsmakers are pricing it accordingly. Our take is
different. Xavier is not only better, but physically stronger in a
way that makes it difficult for the underdog to compete on this
court, and with Rhode Island never having won at the Cintas Center,
losing the last four trips by an averaging of 19.3 points, this game
has been set in the wrong category.
Yes, the Rams bring an explosive offense and a 3-1 conference record,
but those wins came over light-weights Fordham, Duquesne and St.
Joseph?s. They do have some legit offensive punch, with their #1 spot
in scoring in the league no fluke, but there are severe shortcomings
elsewhere. The defense has to focus on taking the ball away from
opponents because they are not going to stop many folks around the
basket (allowing 45.0 percent shooting), and they are an awful -4.0
per game in rebounding in A10 play, a true ?awful? because of the
class of competition.
Now consider those rebounding problems as they have to go up against
the likes of 7-0/265 Kenny Frease and 6-9/265 Jason Love. And
consider the defensive difficulties because of the size that they
give up. Double-team the post? Not against this team. You can not sag
off of the explosive Jordan Crawford, who leads the A10 in scoring
and is shooting an excellent 38.9 percent from 3-point range, but
note that as well as Crawford has shot the ball from the perimeter,
teammates Brad Redford (47.5 percent), Dante Jackson (44.4) and Mark
Lyons (40.0) have been even better from long range. Jim Baron just
does not have the answers against this class of opponent on the road.
Xavier has won 26 straight conference home games and the matchups are
ideal to add another, as they score easily and control the boards
against a smaller opponent. And the fact that Rhode Island needs to
run to be successful only makes this better for our purposes,
increasing the tempo and subsequently making the pointspread even
shorter because of the high pace count.
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