1-24-10

**GoBlue** · 01-23-2010, 07:36 AM

Re: 1-24-10

NFL LONG SHEET

Sunday, January 24

NY JETS (11 - 7) at INDIANAPOLIS (15 - 2) - 1/24/2010, 2:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY JETS is 1-0 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
NY JETS is 1-0 straight up against INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MINNESOTA (13 - 4) at NEW ORLEANS (14 - 3) - 1/24/2010, 6:40 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 44-65 ATS (-27.5 Units) in home games against conference opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 1-0 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 1-0 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

**GoBlue** · 01-23-2010, 07:36 AM

Re: 1-24-10

NFL SHORT SHEET

Sunday, January 24th

AFC Championship Game TV: CBS

NY Jets at Indianapolis, 3:00 ET

NY Jets:
22-9 Under off 3+ SU wins
86-60 Under off an Under

Indianapolis:
8-2 ATS off ATS win
20-8 ATS revenging loss by 14+ pts

NFC Championship Game TV: FOX

Minnesota at New Orleans, 6:40 ET

Minnesota:
21-9 Over Away off BB home games
8-2 Over vs. New Orleans

New Orleans:
11-3 Over off home win
24-12 Over vs. conference

**GoBlue** · 01-23-2010, 07:37 AM

Re: 1-24-10

NFL ADDITIONAL

Conference Championships

Sunday, January 24

Trend Report

3:00 PM
NY JETS vs. INDIANAPOLIS
NY Jets are 6-3 ATS in their last 9 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis
NY Jets are 5-12 SU in their last 17 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis
Indianapolis is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games
Indianapolis is 15-2 SU in its last 17 games

6:40 PM
MINNESOTA vs. NEW ORLEANS
Minnesota is 13-4 SU in its last 17 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Minnesota's last 9 games
New Orleans is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Minnesota
New Orleans is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Minnesota

**GoBlue** · 01-23-2010, 07:38 AM

Re: 1-24-10

THE LOGICAL APPROACH

The Jets have now won 5 in a row and 7 of 8 and have not allowed more than 15 points in any of their last 8 games. Their lone loss over this span was at home to Atlanta 10-7 win week 15. In that loss the Jets outgained the Falcons 314 to 238 but rookie QB Mark Sanchez was intercepted three times. The week following that loss the Jets defeated the Colts but only after the Colts pulled most of their starters which renders useless almost any reliance on that game as a guide to what can be expected in this "rematch." The Jets have matured as a team over the course of the season and showed in San Diego that even when they are outmanned in terms of offensive potential the play of their defense can keep them in games. That will be put to the test here as the Colts present a very formidable challenge although the Colts' over reliance on the passing game often bodes well for an outstanding defense. Over the past few weeks, for example, we saw Dallas' defense look unbeatable twice against the one dimensional Philadelphia offense only to be torched by Minnesota's well balanced offense last week. The Jets fared well last week against San Diego primarily pass oriented offense. San Diego had the number 31 rushing offense during the regular season. The only team worse? Yep, Indianapolis averaged just 81 rushing yards per game. Even in last week's win over Baltimore the Colts ran for just 42 yards on 25 carries and gained just 275 total yards for just 3.9 yards per play. There are many similarities between the Ravens and the Jets that go beyond the fact that Jets coach Rex Ryan was the architect of the Baltimore defense in his years as the Ravens' defensive coordinator. Offensively as well Baltimore relies very heavily on the run. But as well as the Ravens fared defensively last week in limiting the Colts to just 20 points, the offense could produce just a single FG. The Jets will continue to do what they do best -- run the football and control the clock. Their best chance for success is to keep QB Peyton Manning and the Colts' offense off the field as much as possible and use their own rushing offense to wear down the Indy defense. In their Playoff wins over both Cincinnati and San Diego the Jets fell behind 7-0. But that was the most by which they trailed in either game. Being down by only one score does not mandate a change in the game plan. But fall behind by two scores or more and things take on a different complexion. The Jets are not build to play from far behind, especially with a rookie QB against an experienced, and underrated, defense. The Colts can afford to be patient knowing that they possess quick strike ability should it come down to that being needed. Although they just mailed it in over the final few weeks of the season the Colts allowed 17 or fewer points in 10 of their first 13 games. This game could go one of two ways. Either the Jets are successful in keeping this a low scoring, competitive game throughout which would enable them to cover and perhaps win the game outright. Or the Colts can get out to a 14 or 17 point lead and force the Jets to pass the ball in playing from behind which would greatly limit the Jets' chances of putting points on the board. But both scenarios make for a low scoring game, something along the lines of perhaps 20-17 if the Jets can keep it close, or perhaps along the lines of 27-10 if the Colts are able to get ahead by a couple of scores or so. Indianapolis' experience edge would tend to favor them in establishing a big lead. But the Colts were not a dominant team this season with half of their 14 regular season wins coming by 4 points or less. The Jets are a confident team but the preferred play in this game looks to be on the Total. An upset would be a surprise but not a shock considering how the Jets have played and it's hard not to respect a team with the game's best rushing offense and top defense. Still, Manning has made plays time and again including this season when he led several fourth quarter comebacks. The call is for the Colts to win 20-16, making the

NEW YORK JETS a 2 Star Selection
UNDER a 3 Star Selection .

In winning their Divisional Playoff games last week both teams showed little rust from rest but rather displayed the form that for most of the season made this the heavily favored matchup for the NFC Title. Minnesota's 34-3 win over Dallas on Sunday was just as one sided and dominant as had been New Orleans'' 45-14 dismantling of reigning NFC Champ Arizona a day earlier. New Orleans hosts their first NFC Championship game ever and is only in the second such game in franchise history, having lost at Chicago in the 2006 Playoffs. Minnesota is in their first NFC Title game since the 2000 Playoffs when they lost in this game for the second time in three seasons. Both the Saints and Vikings have plenty of offense, most of which comes from the passing game. Saints' QB Drew Brees had an outstanding season that was equaled if not surpassed by Minnesota''s Brett Favre. On the surface many would conclude that with Adrian Peterson that the Vikings have the better ground attack. Yet during the regular season the Saints actually averaged more rushing yards per game than did Minnesota (132 vs. 120). That edge is magnified on a yards per carry basis as New Orleans averaged 4.5 yards per rush to the Vikings' 4.1. Overall the Saints had the NFL's number 1 ranked offense with New Orleans ranked number 5. It's on defense where Minnesota has the decided edge, ranking sixth in allowing just 306 yards per game (New Orleans allowed 358 ypg, number 25). Much of Minnesota's edge is against the run, allowing just 87 ypg (3.9 per rush) to the Saints' allowing 123 (4.5 per rush). This game should be all about offense and not just from scrimmage. As he showed last week, Reggie Bush gives the Saints an outstanding kick return game. Rookie Percy Harvin provides the same potential for Minnesota. Which suggests the return game could set up Brees and Favre with short fields. The series history strongly favors Minnesota as the Vikings have won 8 of the last 9 meetings with New Orleans dating back to 1994. Minnesota has won each of the last 4 meetings, 3 of which were played in New Orleans including a 30-27 win in 2008. The last 4 meetings have also gone OVER the Total as have 7 of the last 9 (with one UNDER and one PUSH). Certainly the indoor conditions of the Superdome will make things easier for the offense and since the Vikes also play in a domed stadium they will not be at a disadvantage and should also be better able to deal with the noise from the partisan Saints' crowd. Much may be made of the Vikings' road woes this season, splitting 8 such games but losing each of their last 3 road games of the regular season at Arizona, Carolina and Chicago. But it must be noted that after starting 10-1 and wrapping up their Division so early there really was no sense of urgency in those road games. Sure, the Vikes might have wrapped up the number two seed earlier or have had a chance for the top seed but the fact is that the Vikes had attained the goal of making the Playoffs and as an elite team were getting the host's best effort in front of their home fans especially with each of those three games being played on either Sunday night or Monday night. This game handicaps as a shootout. The Vikings scored at least 27 points in 14 of their 17 games, scoring 30 or more 11 times. New Orleans scored at least 27 points 12 times and scored at least 35 points in 8 games. The two offenses have to be rated as even with Minnesota having an edge on defense. Is that edge enough to overcome New Orleans' playing at home? And which will prevail -- Minnesota's series history against the Saints or Minnesota's past failures in NFC Title games? This should be a most entertaining contest and the team with the ball last has an excellent chance to move his team down the field. The opening line translates to a 28-24 New Orleans win. And while a 4 point win by either team seems reasonable it''s hard to envision the losing team scoring just 24 points. Minnesota looked at the signing of Favre as the missing component of a run to the Super Bowl. Both teams are very talented, especially on offense. But Minnesota has the more proven defense and better overall balance and despite their late season road woes are more than capable of winning on the road. Favre will have more than a small amount of fans cheering for him. Getting points, especially more than a FG, is a bonus. The call is for Minnesota to pull the minor upset and defeat the Saints 34-27, making

MINNESOTA a 3 Star Selection
OVER a 4 Star Selection .

**GoBlue** · 01-23-2010, 07:39 AM

Re: 1-24-10

POWERSWEEP

The AFC comes full circle here. Having already dispatched CIN in the Wildcard Rd the Jets have the opportunity to take out the other team that essentially gifted them a playoff spot. IND had a 15-10 lead after the 1st drive of the 2H in the 1st meeting when they pulled Manning and the rest of the starters. At that point IND had 16-7 FD and 254-115 yd edges and the Jets TD came when Brad Smith returned the 2H’s opening KO 106 yds for a TD. However the combo of Jones and Greene had 68 yds (4.5) rushing in the 1H. The Jets #1D sk’d Indy QB Painter on his 2nd series forcing a fumble which they ret’d to take the lead and the run D took over. LW was a story of 2 halves for the Jets as while they were outgained 212-99 in the 1H they allowed just 1 TD as SD missed 2 FG’s. In the 2H the Jets had a 163-132 yd edge and held SD to just 9 yds on their 1st 4 drives of the 2H. IND quieted doubters about how ready they would be after shutting it down for the final 2 games. The Colts #18 defense used their impressive team speed to hold Rice to just 67 yds (5.2). The AFC East and South matched up vs each other TY with the Jets going 5-4 SU and 4-5 ATS while IND went 8-1 SU and 5-4 ATS. Surprisingly there were no common foes outside of these matchups. The Jets are 7-3 SU and 7 ATS on the road with a 23-18 avg score and are 5-2 SU and ATS as a dog (19-16). IND is 8-1 SU and 4-5 ATS at home with a 23-28 avg score and 14-1 SU and 10-5 ATS as a fav (27-18). Manning is 4-1 SU/ATS vs a Rex Ryan defense avg 227 ypg (62%) with a 9-2 ratio.
Rex Ryan took the same formula that got the ‘08 Ravens into the playoffs with a rookie HC and QB by relying on their #1 rush attack and #1 D. Sanchez is the 1st rookie QB to start and win the first 3 gms of a yr (202 ypg, 59%, 4-2) S/’69. He then avg’d 169 ypg (49%) with a 6-14 ratio in his next 7 starts (1-6 SU/ATS) until Ryan got involved with the “color code system.” Since then he’s avg 131 ypg (59%) with a 2-4 ratio except for the TB gm (knee sprain) but LW joined BAL’s Flacco as the only rookie QB’s to win 2 Playoff games. The Jets boldly traded for Edwards and he still has a tendency to drop balls (49% catch rate with NYJ). Cotchery is back to being a solid #2 and TE Keller rounds out a decent rec unit. The backbone of the #20 offense is RB’s Greene and Jones who along with SD’s Tomlinson and STL’s Jackson are the only active RB’s with 5 str 1,000 yd seasons. Jones finished 3rd in rushing TY thanks to a formidable OL that has started all 16 together. Greene has been the star of the playoffs leading the league with 263 (6.0). Over the L6 reg season games the D held opposing QB’s to a comb 33.7 passer rating with 1,054 ypg (43%) and a 1-10 ratio. The Jets are the 1st tm to lead the NFL in scoring D, total D and rush offense since the 1986 Bears. The best NFL CB in ‘09 has been Revis who leads the NFL with 37 pd and hasn’t all’d an opposing WR to have more than 50 yds TY. The ILB’s are Scott and Harris who didn’t miss a beat with the loss of NT ******* in run support. While the Jets are just 18th in sks it’s misleading as they own an 8-17 ratio. Shaun Ellis is a rare active pass rushing DE in a 3-4 (hybrid) and has 6.5 sks. Pouha has done a good job taking over at NT since the loss of ******* and NYJ have all’d 93 ypg rush (3.6) since 10/18 (BUF). The Jets ST are an avg group (#14) which isn’t bad as they’ve cycled 7 P’s thru since the draft and aren’t the same with the loss of Washington.
Despite the outcry over the loss of “a perfect season” the fact is that the Colts have 7 str seasons of 12 or more wins which is a record. Manning has won his 4th MVP which he earned with 5 str come-from-behind wins TY and the Colts are the only team in the NFL with DD wins and playoff berths since realignment. What makes this season standout is the changeover at WR with 2nd yr WR Garcon and rookie Collie taking over for departed Marvin Harrison and Anthony Gonzalez who sprained his knee in Wk 1. Despite their inexperience IND finished in the Top 10 (9th) in ttl offense for the 10th time in 11 yrs. The Colts have 5 players in the top 100 for rec’s TY with Wayne and Clark tying for 5th with 100 rec’s. Clark is the 2nd TE in NFL history with 100 rec’s and the Colts offset their #32 run game with Addai in the short pass game (51 rec, 6.6). They have struggled in the short yardage area which is where Brown was supposed to help out but he’s been bothered by a shoulder inj. IND’s 13 sks all’d is the 4th time in 5 years the Colts OL has given up 15 or fewer sks. They didn’t have a 100 yd rusher in any game TY and only broke that number as a team 3x’s TY. Despite finishing 25th vs the run (4.3) the D under DC Coyer is improved allowing 112 ypg (4.1) prior to the Jets/Bills. IND also places much more emphasis on spd and sure tackling than other teams. They allowed an NFL best 27 pass plays of 20 or more yds and gave up a 19-16 ratio (3 TD’s vs BUF) which is a big dropoff from LY’s 6-15 ratio. FS Bethea is the only player in the secondary to start all 16 TY and had an All-Pro season. Brackett remains a steady force in the middle but the team doesn’t place much priority on LB’s. Mathis and Freeney combined for 23 sks despite basically resting for 3 games at the EOY. Once again IND struggled on special teams finishing 31st in our rankings due to some very poor return units (22.2 KR, 5.2 PR).
Only twice in the L/12Y has a team pulled B2B road upsets in the 1st two rounds of the playoffs (NYG ‘07 and CAR ‘05). The Jets have matched that feat and are now playing away from home for the 5th time in 7 wks. The Jets have the league’s #1 defense and did hold SD to 14 pts but allowed 344 yds LW. The Colts transformed in the post season and the veteran defense held Baltimore to 12 FD’s in their 20-3 win. The Colts have now gone UNDER in 5 of 6 playoff games as Manning makes very few mistakes. The Jets showed again LW that they will continue to run the ball and chew up the clock and keep Sanchez on a short leash. This sets up well for another low scoring game and we’ll use another of our special 3H totals.

FORECAST: Colts/Jets UNDER RATING: 3*

This game is the matchup the fans were hoping for late in the year when they were competing for the #1 seed. Both teams easily dispatched their foes LW as they took advantage of key injuries. ARZ was running man to man prior to CB Rodgers-Cromartie injury (knee) then Brees (247 yds 72% 3-0) dismantled an undermanned zone defense. MIN’s defense swarmed the DAL OL after LT Adams (calf strain) left. Then DAL shifted protection to the left so the Vikings went after RT Columbo. Romo was held to 63 yds (56%) with a 0-1 ratio in the 2H & DAL only crossed midfield on their initial drive of the 2H. MIN is 4-4 SU & ATS on the road dropping 4 of their L5 ATS. They are 1-1 SU & ATS as a dog losing to PIT but beating GB by 12. NO is 7-2 SU & 5-4 ATS at home failing to cover 4 of their L5 ATS in regular season. NO is 14-2 SU & 9-7 ATS as a favorite but has only covered 3 times in that role since Nov. There are 6 common foes here (DET, STL, ARZ, CAR, NYG, DAL) with MIN going 5-2 SU & ATS with a 357-312 yd edge (+6 TO’s) & 28-14 avg score. NO went 5-2 SU & 3-4 ATS with a 401-355 yd edge (-5 TO’s) and a 32-23 avg score.
In ‘08 MIN finished 17th in total off, 25th in pass, 12th in pts and was -6 TO’s. TY behind a 40 yr old QB they finished 5th in total off, 8th in pass, 2nd in pts and were +6 in TO’s. MIN knew they were a veteran QB away from being a serious contender for the Super Bowl. When Favre decided to come out of retirement again they made the highly publicized, but right, move to get him. Favre set a team record with 10 gms of 100+ QBR while personally passing for his most TD’s in a season S/’97, had the fewest int (7) and his best comp % (68.4) in his career. Peterson took some heat for a decline in rushing production (-377 yds from LY) as MIN went from 5th to 12th in rushing. This was partially due to the OL but a MIN also had 110 more pass att’s TY and he more than doubled his rec’s vs LY (21 to 43) which made his overall production +311 yds. Rice benefitted the most out of the addition of Favre with 68 more rec’s and 1,171 more yards than ‘08 as he stayed healthy all yr. He tied an NFL Playoff record with 3 TD rec vs DAL. Harvin finished 2nd to NYG’s Nicks in receiving yds by a rookie and was named Off ROY with a 27.5 KR avg and 2 spec tms TD’s. Their OL isn’t as good as its reputation due to a 1st year Ctr and rookie RT but their 34 sks (15th) is more a factor of Favre taking a sk rather than risk a TO. MIN’s #6 D starts and ends with the DL. Allen finished 2nd in sks as the “Williams Wall” absorbed most of the double tms and allowed him to beat OT’s 1 on 1 for most of the yr. MIN’s biggest inj of the yr was the loss of MLB Henderson (brkn leg) and while rookie Brinkley is good vs the run he is a weak link in coverage. CB Winfield has played most of the 2H of the yr with a foot inj and while they have a 26-11 ratio overall they only given up 209 ypg (65%) with a 9-6 ratio at home. MIN has our #10 special teams thanks to solid return units (#11 PR/KR) but their KR defense can be exploited (22.6).
While leading the #1 offense TY Brees finished 1st in comp % (70.6), QBR (109.6), TD passes (34) and tied Rodgers and Romo for 2nd with 39 pass plays of 25 or more yds. Brees also spreads the ball around (7 players with 35 or more rec’s TY) which diffuses the defense’s ability to lock onto a single player. Colston is the only player who’s had 1,000 yds rec with Brees at the helm but he’s done it 3 of the L4Y. Henderson is the possession WR but the offense really started clicking with a healthy Shockey who opened up the middle of the field. Meachem was GM Loomis’ preseason breakout player & he didn’t disappoint as his 16.0 ypc was 9th in the NFL. The Saints best previous finish in rushing was 11th in 2003 and TY they came in 6th. The combo of Thomas, Bell and Bush worked despite injuries as Payton rolls with whichever RB he feels will exploit the opposing team. Combined the trio would be 2nd only to Chris Johnson in rushing TY. NO’s OL is a bit overrated with Brees being sacked 20 times (4th, 1 every 27.2 pass att’s) due to his lightning quick release. MIA and DAL were the only tms with deep and physical secondaries who were able to jam NO’s rec’s and throw off the timing enough for the edge rushers to get to Brees (9 sks). Gregg Williams led the Saints to the #9 D after the 1st 5 wks but inj’s caught up to them and they finished the year 25th all’g 384 ypg and 23 ppg over the final 11 wks. NO has played much of the season without its starting CB’s Greer and Porter with ******* having growing pains as a nickel CB. Sharper tied for the NFL lead with 9 int and MLB Vilma proved that he is a cornerstone player here. NO did lose DE Grant (triceps) vs CAR but will have DT Ellis here and with him in the lineup NO only all’d 103 ypg (4.2) rushing. NO has our #30 ST’s due to 4.6 PR avg (31st) and the KR coverage unit giving up 24.5 (29th).
Both teams dominated as each won by 31 points last week. The Vikings of course won as our Playoff GOY and despite some recent road woes we’ll ride them again. The QB’s are the two leaders in pass efficiency and while Favre seems to relish improvising, Brees has only been sacked more than twice in only 2 games. The Vikings DL was relentless against Dallas and have to expect them to be able to get to Brees. While most agree the Saints #1 offense is potent, the Vikings are not far behind with the #5 unit. On the defensive side of the ball Minnesota has the league’s #6 stop unit while the Saints are ranked #25 & have allowed 402 ypg the last 6. You need an experienced QB to win on the road and Minny has one.

FORECAST: Minnesota (+) over NEW ORLEANS RATING: 2*

**GoBlue** · 01-23-2010, 07:40 AM

Re: 1-24-10

THE GOLD SHEET

INDIANAPOLIS 24 - NY Jets 10—As we’ve mentioned countless times in
postseasons past, results of regular-season meetings are no foolproof indicator
of what will transpire in playoff rematches. And we think we can safely say that
at least the dynamics of the Week 16 regular-season meeting between the then
14-0 Colts and Jets at Lucas Oil Stadium won’t be replicated in the AFC title
game. Although it is worth noting that Indy was hardly cruising to an easy win
in the 3rd Q when HC Jim Caldwell decided to pull several of his starters,
including QB Peyton Manning, with a mere 15-10 lead. You know the rest, with
Rex Ryan’s defense ruthlessly exposing Manning raw rookie reliever Curtis
Painter, forcing key takeways that New York was able to convert into scores
(including a fumble return TD by DE Marques Douglas) in an eventual 29-15 win
that revived the Jets’ flagging playoff hopes and simultaneously put to the
sword the Colts’ hopes of an unbeaten regular season.
Now, Indy’s starters have a chance to finish the job they started four weeks
ago, but it won’t be easy. Even though the Colt defense did a good job keeping
the limited Raven attack in check last week, the Colts’ undersized front seven
was still susceptible to smashmouth tactics TY when allowing 126 ypg and 4.3
ypc to rank a mere 24th in rush defense, a telling stat considering how some of
Indy’s foes mostly abandoned the run when in catchup mode during the regular
season. And the Jets gashed the Colts for 202 YR in that late December
meeting behind vet Thomas Jones (105 YR) and emerging Iowa rookie Shonn
Greene (95 YR). But if Indy can indeed succeed in somewhat slowing the Jets’
infantry (which continued its pounding ways last week at San Diego when
gaining 169 YR), New York’s alternatives with rookie QB Mark Sanchez are
limited. As the season progressed, the Jets were not able to expand their
playbook (other than integrating some wildcat formations with WR/QB Brad
Smith) with Sanchez, who, after self-destructing numerous times en route to
tossing 20 picks, has been able to work off of the ground game and has thrown
only 18 passes pg in the Jets’ 4-game win streak. Although the N.Y. has
spotted both of TY’s playoff foes 7-0 leads, it is not an offense built to flourish
in catch-up mode.
Meanwhile, it’s worth noting that Manning has had plenty of experience (and
success) dealing with Ryan’s previous Baltimore stop units, and he was en
route to another stellar game vs. Ryan’s Jets in the Dec. 27 meeting, having
completed 14 of 21passes for 192 yards before being pulled. The combo of
excellent protection (Indy allowed an NFL-low 14 sacks) and Manning’s
trademark quick release have historically diffused Ryan’s pressure tactics. And
despite the Colts’ own spotty ground attack that barely registered last week vs.
the Ravens, it’s worth noting that Manning was still able to control the pace and
flow of the game with his pinpoint passing against another rough stop unit
similar in design to the Jets.
Finally, don’t forget the extended results history in the conference
championship round, in which almost half (38 of 78) of the games since the
merger have been decided by 14 points or more. Given the Jets’ limitations,
similar to the Ravens and their then-rookie QB Joe Flacco vs. the Steelers in
LY’s AFC title game, the more-competent Colt offense is apt to extend the
margin and gain revenge for that misleading Dec. 27 loss.
(09-Jets 29-INDY 15...I.18-17 N.44/202 I.24/64 I.18/32/1/213 N.12/19/0/91 N.0 I.1)
(09-NY Jets +4 29-15...SR: Indianapolis 40-28)

Minnesota 26 - NEW ORLEANS 24—First-ever NFC title game in New
Orleans. And, with multiple strong edges appearing on both sides, the value
appears to be in taking the points.
Both QBs have had superior seasons and have been great leaders for their
teams. Both teams have outstanding arrays of receivers. Both teams have
speedy, potential game-breakers (Reggie Bush for the Saints; Percy Harvin for
the Vikings). Both teams are now healthier in the secondary after dealing with
midseason injuries. Both teams have defenses led by well-respected
coordinators—Gregg Williams of the Saints and Leslie Frazier (has interviewed
seven times for head coaching jobs) of the Vikes. And neither team has a solid
core of players who have been to the promised land of the Super Bowl.
One big plus for the Minnesota is that it knocked off arguably the hottest team
in the NFC—big and physical Dallas—which had ended the Saints’ 13-game,
season-opening winning streak and which then won its next three games by a
combined 75-14 count. It turns out that HC Brad Childress made the right move
in giving his players nearly a week off after the regular season. The Vikes last
week were alert and quick on their feet vs. the Cowboys. Likewise, New
Orleans made the right move in holding out its banged-up players in lateseason
games to get them ready for postseason.
There are few knocks here on Sean Payton’s cleverly-coached Saints,
seeking New Orleans’ first Super bowl appearance. But the strengths of the
underdog Vikes should not be overlooked. Brett Favre (now 37 TDs vs. only 7
ints. TY) has supplied Minnesota with the postseason confidence and bravado
it has lacked. Favre has helped elevate 6-4 WR Sidney Rice (83 recs., 8 TDs
in reg. season) into a Pro Bowl talent. TE Visanthe Shiancoe (11 TDC) has
developed into a premier red-zone target. Harvin is a contributor as a receiver,
runner and returner (8 total TDs). Ryan Longwell is the most reliable kicker on
the field. RB Adrian Peterson (1383 YR, 18 TDR) has the potential to dominate
any game, and mate Chester Taylor is among the top third-down backs in the
league. On defense, Minny’s outstanding pass rusher, DE Jared Allen (14½
sacks) is opposite N.O.’s weak link on the OL, LT Jermon Bushrod.
For sure, the Saints’ have myriad strengths of their own—Brees’ quick reads,
Bush’s multiple abilities, WR Colston, ball-hawking (former Minny) S Sharper,
and possibly TE Shockey (check his knee injury). But not enough to keep us
believing that Favre—with all his weapons and experience, in dome conditions
(the same dome, by the way, where Favre won his Super Bowl title with G.B.)—
doesn’t have an excellent chance to steal a victory

**GoBlue** · 01-23-2010, 07:41 AM

Re: 1-24-10

THE SPORTS MEMO

AFC CHAMPIONSHIP
Game - NY Jets at Indianapolis -7.5 O/U 40.5
Recommendation: #302 Indianapolis -7.5
Methodical yet deadly, the Colts once again did exactly what they needed
to do to win. The offensive numbers were far from gaudy but with Peyton
Manning under center, there is no better team when faced with a must
score that can deliver the goods with such consistency. Defensively, the
bend-but-don’t-break style we discussed last week was in full effect as
Baltimore was held under 100 yards on the ground while Joe Flacco threw
two interceptions. Somewhat concerning was Indy’s inability to run the
football – an issue certainly relevant against the Jets – but they are one
of a few teams that can win without balance. Against San Diego, the Jets
walked away with a fourth quarter comeback win, keeping within striking
distance with a strong run game and forced turnovers. After recording
only 11 yards on its first four drives, New York kept plugging away and
essentially waited for San Diego to implode (two missed field goals). As
for this weekend’s matchup, it is no question worrisome that Indianapolis’
style doesn’t always equate to wins by margin. But from a trend perspective,
the Colts have covered every game they have won outright in the
playoffs with Manning under center (8-0 SU/ATS). The number may seem
a tad high but enough factors have us leaning towards the home chalk.

NFC CHAMPIONSHIP
Game - Minnesota at New Orleans -4 O/U 52.5
Recommendation: #304 New Orleans -4
Home field was in full effect last week as both New Orleans and Minnesota
dominated their respective games from start to finish. The Saints
showed no signs of rust after their supposed late season decline,
marching up and down the field at will against Arizona. Even more
impressive was a defense that for a majority of the season was “situationally
good” – getting key stops when needed and forcing plenty of
turnovers (third in the NFL with 26 INTs). That doesn’t mean we aren’t
somewhat concerned as Minnesota has the ability to move the ball
a number of ways. The Vikings didn’t have to do much last week as
Dallas essentially handed them the game. Not one Dallas drive tallied
more than 30 yards after the first quarter. The key here is how well
Minnesota’s secondary stacks up against the league’s most prolific
passing outfit. Against Aaron Rogers (twice) and Kurt Warner, the Vikes
were cut apart to the tune of 74-of-110, 67% for 311 ypg. While recent
trends suggest home field doesn’t mean as much in the NFL, you can’t
discredit either of these two squads’ turf. New Orleans has been all but
unstoppable in front of its home crowd and in this price range, we feel
comfortable laying the points with what we feel is the better team

**GoBlue** · 01-23-2010, 07:44 AM

Re: 1-24-10

THE SPORTS REPORTER

RECOMMENDED
NY JETS over *INDIANAPOLIS by 1
"They might have a chance to make a move. Their defense is that good.’’ The quote from
Cincinnati Bengals’ quarterback Carson Palmer regarding the Jersey B Teamers, after the
Jets beat his team in the opening round of this post-season, was pulled and highlighted here
in last week’s issue for your benefit. Oh, geez, it is indeed the Jets, isn’t it? Do you know
what this means? It means that all along, the NFL has really sunk and stunk. There are no
excellent teams. The Colts won 14 straight games, but a lot of them were by slim margins.
They only beat the 49ers by 4 points and the 49ers are just a power-rushing offense with a
really lousy quarterback and a decent def…wait a minute. That’s what the Jets are, except
they have a very good defense, as everybody knows.
How good is it? Good enough to have held opponents to only 3.8 rushing yards per carry and
the lowest Yards Per Attempt passing in the NFL: 5.4. The Jets’ opposing QB Rating of 58.8
is in a range that the Tampa Bay Bucs’ defense was in the year they won the Super Bowl
against the Raiders. The Jets faced enough decent quarterbacks that you’re not inclined to
say, ‘Well, that rating is because they played against a bunch of bums, and Peyton Manning
is not a bum.’ Matt Schaub got nothing done against the Jets and he led the NFL in passing
yardage. Tom Brady and the Pats didn’t get into the end zone against them in Week 2. The
Jets held Drew Brees and the Saints to nearly two TDs below their season scoring average,
and “only” 343 yards from scrimmage. In fact, New Orleans scored only 13 offensive points
against the Jets (and 14 defensive points off a 99-yard INT return and an end zone fumble
recovery off the awful rookie Jets’ quarterback, whose presence they can withstand and still
win). Later on, Atlanta’s Matt Ryan, a pretty good quarterback on a pretty productive Atlanta
offense, was shut down for most of the game in a 10-7 Jets’ loss. Cincinnati’s Carson Palmer
looked like a rookie two weeks in a row against it. Finally, the Jets completely rattled the
cage of San Diego quarterback Philip Rivers. They made Rivers look like Brett Favre on a bad
day, flinging it and just hoping somebody would catch it!
The Colts are getting kudos for having shut down the Baltimore running game last Saturday
night. But who ever said that Baltimore was an excellent running team? They like to run.
They prefer to run, because Joe Flacco and the receivers don’t set the world on fire against
the best of the NFL’s all-lousy teams. But the Ravens rushed for 35 fewer yards per game
than the Jets rushed for this season, on 139 fewer carries overall. The Jets ran it 607 times
and are starting to look like the Steelers team that beat the Colts in the 2005 AFC Divisional
Round with 35 minutes of possession time yet only 295 yards from scrimmage and –2 in
turnovers. It’s a 3-4 defense that can frustrate Manning and force the Colts’ offense into taking
penalties trying to protect him. “Manning was wildly missing his first four passes and
feeling pressure from everywhere,” said the game recap. See? The guy isn’t Superman.
Somewhere along the line, the wrong match-up materializes. The Colts have been a good
pass offense with a good pass defense. They have usually been the better pass offense and
the better pass defense. But now, Indy is a good pass offense against a good pass defense,
and a good pass defense against a good rushing offense. The strengths of both Colts’ units
are matched unfavorably, the Jets probably have the better kick return game, yet the Colts
are favored by a touchdown.
The Jets, who aren’t supposed to be able to come from behind, have come from behind on
the road against Cincinnati and San Diego already, two decent defenses that did a better job
of stopping the run this season than the Colts did. The Jets’ offensive line is pretty good.
Guards Faneca and Woody have Super Bowl rings, Mangold the center is a back-to-back pro
bowler there are no Pro Bowlers in the middle of Indy’s defensive line. As mentioned in that
Recommended pick on the Jets in Week 16, quarterback Mark Sanchez saw plenty of Cover-
2 in the Pac 10 and the way to beat Cover-2 has always been with blunt force in the rushing
attack, which then allows a merely accurate QB to manage the game.

NY JETS, 17-16.

MINNESOTA over *NEW ORLEANS by 1
Most of you probably remember the Monday Night Football game played between the Vikings
and Saints on this field in Week 5 last season, a game won by Minnesota, +3, 30-27. It was a
weird one. Gus Frerotte played all the way for the Vikings at quarterback and didn’t throw an
interception or fumble the ball. Adrian Peterson, in a surprise, found it tough to run against what
had been a porous Saints defense, with 21 carries for a mere 32 yards. Bobby Wade was
Minnesota’s leading receiver with 8 catches. Bernard Berrian hauled in six balls for 110 yards
and a touchdown and got a huge pass interference penalty called against a long-since-gone
Saints DB to set up the game-winning field goal. Vikings’ DB Antoine Winfield keyed defensive
and special teams sparks from Minnesota with a blocked field goal returned for a touchdown,
plus a sack and a forced fumble and recovery.
The Vikings were out-gained by 105 yards on offense – 375 to 270 – and allowed two punt
returns for touchdowns by New Orleans’ ex-running back turned kick-return specialist Reggie
Bush. Yet they won the game, on this field. The Saints made an obvious strategic move for when
teams would play the Vikings during the Brad Childress era to that point – gear up to stop
Peterson’s rushing yardage and let the quarterback, in this case Frerotte, beat you if he can. He
did, with Wade and Berrian.
This time around, Brett Favre is the Minnesota quarterback, Berrian is the third receiver, and
Sidney Rice and Percy Harvin – who didn’t play in last season’s game because one was hurt and
the other was in college – caught 83 and 60 passes from Favre in the regular season. There is
no more loading the box to stop Peterson because if there is, Favre can still make plays with
these receivers behind the good Minnesota offensive line. As mentioned here many times previously,
the full Brad Childress offensive playbook has been at the ready for the first time in the
head coach’s four-season tenure with the Vikings. Fans who thought Childress was a horrible
coach when the Vikings’ offense sputtered before this season probably still think he’s a horrible
coach who will make decisions to lose this particular game. Maybe he will, maybe he won’t. But
the Vikings have the capability to go score-for-score with the Saints’ offense, if necessary. It may
not be necessary if the defense holds up its end of the deal and makes a few stops. Leslie Frazier
is the defensive coordinator for Minnesota. He was the defensive backs coach for Indianapolis
when the Colts’ vaunted Cover-2 defense – few blitzes due to good pressure from the front four
-- held Saints quarterback Drew Brees to 4.5 yards per pass attempt, with two interceptions and
a Brees fumble on opening day, 2007. "Sometimes you get the bear, Sometimes the bear gets
you," said Brees. "Tonight, the bear got us."
"I thought it was going to be tough to hold these guys (Saints) down," said Colts head coach
Tony Dungy. "They have a special offense." The same style of defense got a pick and two fumbles
from Brees in the 2006 NFC Championship Game at Chicago. Vikings’ DE Jared Allen creates
has been creating enough havoc that the Vikings blitz less than they used to, which allows
them to keep more defenders in the secondary to mess up veteran quarterbacks’ rhythm. “It
takes the focus away from some of the things teams normally focus on because they say, we
have to take care of Jared Allen,” says Vikings’ LB Ben Leber.
Not that a Vikings’ win here is a slam-dunk. New Orleans played last season’s loss to Minnesota
without wide receiver Marques Colston and tight end Jeremy Shockey – not that Shockey is a
winner or anything like that. But Pro Bowl safety Darren Sharper, who was with the Vikings last
season and was a teammate of Favre in Green Bay for eight seasons, has nine of the Saints' 26
interceptions this season, three of them returned for touchdowns. Will Favre – whose TD-to-INT
ratio for the season was 33-7 prior to last Sunday’s clean game vs. Dallas – finally step on his
customary land mines? Maybe, maybe not. But looking away from Favre for a moment, the
Saints’ defense didn’t fare very well against the physical Dallas offensive line in that Thursday
Night game that nobody saw in December, and the Vikings’ is about as tough, as is the D-line. If
both forecasts here are correct, the extremely perverse Favre vs. Jets match-up would be your
Super Bowl. What a world. MINNESOTA, 24-23.

**GoBlue** · 01-23-2010, 07:45 AM

Re: 1-24-10

WINNING POINTS

*Indianapolis over New York Jets by 3
During the last 19 years, 73 percent of the Super Bowl winners had a bye
in the first round of the postseason.The Jets are the lone team attempting
to buck that trend this season.The Jets have bucked many things to even
get this far needing to win their final two regular-season games. Their
accomplishment in achieving that was somewhat tarnished by both the
Colts and Bengals resting starters and not going all-out.The Bengals paid for
their mistake in the wildcard round. The Jets finally earned their national
due with a big road upset of San Diego.While we’re not ready to chauffer
Rex Ryan on a Super Bowl victory parade, the Jets have covered eight of the
past 10 times they’ve been underdogs. They also are 7-1 ATS in their last
eight games. Can their remarkable run continue? It could when you consider
that all the pressure really is on Indianapolis.The Jets have been playing
on house money and doing remarkably well with it.They are a loose
bunch.Any team that ranks No. 1 in defense and in rushing like the Jets do
is a dangerous foe.As great as Peyton Manning is – and he may very well be
the greatest quarterback of all time – the Colts are just 8-8 in the playoffs
during the Manning era. The Jets have the great cover cornerback in
Darrelle Revis to keep Reggie Wayne in check. Manning has other weapons,
though, primarily tight end Dallas Clark. Indy’s running game leaves much
to be desired, however, ranking last averaging less than 81 yards per game.
Joseph Addai hasn’t looked good all year. Manning is so talented that he can
carry the attack without a ground attack. Ryan isn’t afraid to gamble and
blitz. Manning has such poise and quickness in his release that he could
exploit single coverage if the Jets do decide to blitz. It’s absolutely imperative
for the Jets to keep Manning off the field.The key is that the Jets are
built to do just that because they have a bruising rushing game featuring
Thomas Jones and Shonn Greene running behind one of the best offensive
lines in the game that features four first-round draft picks.The Jets churned
out a league-best 2,756 yards rushing. The Colts are small and not overwhelming
on defense. Their defense is more bend-but-not-break.
Indianapolis ranked 24th in run defense, although those numbers are a tad
bit skewed since the Colts yielded 450 yards on the ground during the last
two weeks while resting starters. The Jets can pound this defense. Mark
Sanchez hasn’t played like the rookie he is down the stretch. He’s executed
New York’s game plan well, has made clutch throws and most important
has thrown just one interception in the last four games.The Colts have the
edge pass rushers with Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis to bother
Sanchez in obvious passing situations. So things could get ugly if the Jets fall
too far behind. But that hasn’t happened so far. Still, it’s nearly impossible
to reach the Super Bowl with a one-dimensional offense. Chances are
Sanchez will have to make big plays in a tough road setting – this one being
in a loud dome – for the Jets’ amazing streak to continue.The Colts seemed
on their way to a victory when they met the Jets in the second-to-last regular-
season game, leading 15-10 at home in the third quarter. Colts coach
Jim Caldwell then made the controversial decision to pull Manning and
other key players.The Jets came back to win 29-15 costing Indianapolis its
chance at an undefeated season. Now the Jets have the opportunity to
prove they are indeed for real.There won’t be any help this time for New
York. INDIANAPOLIS 23-20.

Minnesota over *New Orleans by 3
The NFC playoffs were stacked with good teams this season, but in the end
it’s fitting that the two best offenses are still remaining. Both Minnesota and
New Orleans are deserving finalists. The Saints scored an NFL-high 64
touchdowns, with the Vikings placing second.There’s plenty of excitement
in the New Orleans air as the Saints host their first-ever NFC championship
game in their biggest game ever.With that comes pressure, though.Will the
Saints wilt? New Orleans has failed to cover seven of the past 10 times
when laying a field goal or more. Minnesota was devastating in the
Metrodome going 9-0.The Vikings were just 4-4 on the road. But our nod
goes to Minnesota.The Vikings and Brett Favre won’t be intimidated on the
road.They are used to playing on carpet inside a dome, where they are at
their best. Favre had a remarkable 28-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio
in 11 dome games this season. Drew Brees is a great quarterback, too. He
has receiving weapons that can match Favre’s with Marques Colston and
all-purpose back Reggie Bush, who was at his dynamic best last week.The
Vikings, however, have the better talent level with an NFL-best nine players
named to the Pro Bowl.The Vikings also have the better pass rush headed
by NFC sack-leader Jared Allen, are stronger versus the run and have the
better ground attack spearheaded by Adrian Peterson. Minnesota has the
steadier place-kicker, too, in reliable veteran Ryan Longwell.The key to the
game is putting pressure on each quarterback since both Brees and Favre
can pick apart any defense when given time to throw.The Vikings have several
outstanding pass rushers, who are made quicker when playing on artificial
turf.Will Smith is New Orleans’ best pass rusher.That’s about it since
defensive end Charles Grant is out.The Saints’ linebackers are mediocre at
best and their secondary has been vulnerable although it has gotten healthier.
Cornerbacks Jabari Greer and Tracy Porter did an excellent job controlling
Larry Fitzgerald in the Saints’ 45-14 dismantling of the Cardinals at
home last Saturday. But these defenders aren’t nearly good enough to contend
with Minnesota’s multi-dimensional offense.The Vikings had six players
with 40 or more catches, just the second offense to accomplish that feat
since 1983. Favre compiled his highest passer rating ever throwing to
Sidney Rice, who enjoyed a breakout season into superstar status, Bernard
Berrian, tight end Visanthe Shiancoe and all-purpose back Percy Harvin
along with Chester Taylor out of the backfield. The Vikings’ back seven is
vulnerable to Brees, especially with middle linebacker E.J. Henderson out
and cornerback Antoine Winfield not 100 percent. Unlike the Saints,
though, the Vikings’ front four is strong against the run and they have excellent
pass rushers. Because of that, the Vikings will have the luxury of dropping
seven players into coverage restricting Brees’ options. The Saints, on
the other hand, will have to blitz since their defensive line doesn’t match
Minnesota’s. Favre can take advantage of this with his quick release, veteran
savvy, running the always-dangerous Peterson on draw plays, hitting
Harvin on quick short strikes, or flipping screen passes to Taylor.The Saints
may have been the best team when they opened 13-0. They finished the
regular-season playing lousy against Dallas and Tampa Bay and then resting
their starters at Carolina in Week 17 to finish 13-3. So are the Saints as bad
as they were during the last three weeks of the regular season, or as good
as they looked last week.The answer lies in the middle and that won’t be
good enough to beat an excellent Minnesota team.MINNESOTA 27-24.

**GoBlue** · 01-23-2010, 07:48 AM

Re: 1-24-10

MARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK

INDIANAPOLIS over NY Jets by 8

It’s déjà vu all over again. Like Baltimore last year, the Jets have made it all
the way to the AFC title game behind a rookie head coach and quarterback.
Ironically, New York coach Rex Ryan – who boastfully proclaimed several
weeks ago that his team should be favored to win the Super Bowl – was an
assistant on the 2008 Ravens team that fell one game short of reaching the Big
One. However, in order to book a flight to Miami for February 7th, the Jets will
have to slug it out with the Colts’ starters for a full four quarters on Sunday.
Today’s showdown is a rematch of the December 27th meeting where –
according to countless angry Colts fans–– Indy coach Jim Caldwell foolishly
flushed away a possible perfect season by yanking his starters early, causing a
15-10 Colts lead to self-destruct into a 29-15 Jets win. But despite a general
feeling that the Jets don’t belong in this championship bout, the fact is the
Flyboys enter with 76 yards the better defense and 93 YPG the better rushing
offense. In its simplest form, this matchup features strength against strength…
QB Peyton Manning’s 2nd-ranked pass offense against the Jets’ top-ranked
pass defense. From a handicapping standpoint, though, this is one tough nut
to crack. That’s because the upstart New Yorkers own strong statistical edges
while the ‘technicals’ are stacked against them. Start with this ‘Ugly Stat of the
Week’: the Jets have allowed an average of just 9.4 PPG in their last eight
outings (no more than 15 points in any game) and the Colts are a moneyburning
5-35-2 ATS in games in which they score less than 20 points behind
Peyton Manning, including 1-19 ATS at home! On the flip side, our database
tells us that road teams off a playoff upset win are 26-47 ATS and, even worse,
road teams in title games off back-to-back road games are only 1-8 SU and
ATS versus an opponent that allowed less than 20 points in its last game. Yes,
Indianapolis lost, 41-0, to the Jets in a 2002 playoff game but NFL MVP Manning
is 5-2 SU and ATS at home in the playoffs, including 4-0 SU and ATS versus a
less than .700 opponent (every win by 15 or more points). With conflicts
abounding on both sides, we’re going to exercise some discretion and watch
where the number settles on another Jets game before pulling the trigger

Minnesota over NEW ORLEANS by 3

Okay, let’s see how QB Drew Brees and his offense performs against
a REAL defense. Last Saturday, the Saints faced off with an Arizona
stop unit that had been torched for 493 total yards (423 through
the air) and 35 second half points by Green Bay – and the result was a
predictable 45-14 New Orleans romp. But today they must move the ball
against a Minnesota ‘D’ that limited Dallas to just 248 yards while forcing
three turnovers, registering six sacks and pitching a second half shutout.
In fact, the Vikings are the only team left in this season’s NFL Final Four
with both a Top 10-ranked defense AND offense. Hosting their first NFC
Championship tilt in franchise history, the Saints find themselves in a ‘good
news, bad news’ scenario here. First, the good news: home teams in title
games with the better win percentage are 28-14 ATS if they’re not laying
double-digits. However, the bad news is much worse: teams in title games
that scored 36 or more points in their previous game are 1-10 SU and ATS
as a dog or favorite of less than seven points. Ouch! The Purple Gang has
certainly put the hammer down lately in this series, going 8-1 SU in the
previous nine games, including 4-0 SU and ATS the last four. With the
current line at New Orleans -4, our database points out that Minnesota
QB Brett Favre is a near-perfect 3-0-1 ATS on the road as a playoff
favorite or dog of less than 6 points. And how about this little nugget?
The last time the Vikes took points this season was back on November
1st when they beat the Packers in Green Bay, 38-26, as 3.5-point dogs.
Still, Minny will have to overcome several negatives to make its way
back to the Super Bowl for a 5th appearance: road teams in championship
games off a win of 30 or more points are 0-4 SU and ATS while home
teams in NFC championship games are 21-8 SU and 18-11 ATS. The
bottom line is we’ll take a vastly more experienced playoff signal caller in
Favre – who’s making a homecoming of sorts to this deep south venue –
to outduel Brees and deliver a conference championship to Viking nation.
The Saints enjoyed a terrific season but considering the last NFC No. 1
seed to reach the Super Bowl was the 1999 Rams, purple reigns in the
Big Easy tonight.

**GoBlue** · 01-23-2010, 07:49 AM

Re: 1-24-10

SPORTS INSIGHTS

NFL Wild Card Weekend - Games to Watch Playoff Edition (2-0 = 100.0%)

The NFL Playoffs are a totally different animal than the NFL Regular season. The amount of “Public” square bets skyrockets. The culmination of this trend is the Super Bowl, the most-wagered sporting event of the year. Everyone, and their mother, wagers on the Super Bowl. From the casual “box-office-pool” – to the professional sports bettor – to the Super Bowl commercials: everyone has some interest in the Super Bowl.

For value-minded sports investors, this massive influx of “Public” money means opportunity. During the NFL Playoffs, odds makers heavily weigh Public opinion when deciding on a game's betting line. They'll shade a line 2-3 pts knowing that the Public will be heavily on one side. “Public Money” dwarfs the amount of “Sharp Money” buying back the shaded lines.

Visit SportsInsights.com to view LIVE wagering statistics from multiple online sportsbooks on every NFL game.

New York Jets vs. Indianapolis Colts

The Public is solidly with Indianapolis, with almost 60% of the bets taking the playoff-experienced Colts. The line opened at Jets +7, but the general consensus of bets taking the Colts has pushed the line to Jets +7.5. If you shop around, you can find Jets +8 at several reputable sportsbooks. There is some decent value based on the line move from the key number of +7 all the way to +8. The line has even ticked to Jets +8.5 at one or two books, but you should be careful about what "vig" you pay at that line.

The Colts almost had a perfect season, before coasting in for a few meaningless losses to end the season. The Jets were the last team to claim a playoff spot. Although the Jets quietly eked into the playoffs in the last game of the regular season, their good defense and solid running game are helping them make some noise in the playoffs. The NFL's best defense, getting +8 points, is a solid value.

This match-up is similar to other games where one team has more of a "powerhouse" reputation. The Colts certainly have the ability to blow out the Jets. However, historically -- more often than not, the game ends up being closer than expected. The Jets have the defense and running game to play with the Colts. Let's "Bet Against the Public" and take the streaking Jets +8 points.

New York Jets +8

So, here's a wrap-up of SportsInsights.com analysis for this week's Games to Watch - Playoff Edition for the NFL.

Games to Watch - Playoff Edition (2-0 100%)
New York Jets +8

**GoBlue** · 01-23-2010, 07:50 AM

Re: 1-24-10

sports book breakers

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
4.5 STAR Minnesota and New Orleans Under 53 - This is the case of two offenses that looked invincible last week. That has driven the total higher than it should be here. Quietly, the defensive sides of the ball also dominated those games. Unlike the Cardinals, both these teams do have the ability to make a play to stall a drive. Minnesota dominated Dallas last week, 34-3, running up the score in the process. The Vikings were a 2.5 point favorite with a total of 37 in that game. Minnesota is 0-21 OU (-7.6 ppg) since December 14, 2003 after a game where they covered by at least five points where the total was at least 41 (team=Vikings and p:ats margin>=5 and 41.5<=p:total and 20031214<=date). Minnesota led 17-3 at the half of that game. The Vikings are 0-14-1 OU (-6.5 ppg) since December 14, 2003 when they were up by at least a TD at the half and won by double-digits last game at home (team=Vikings and 10<=p:margin and 7<=p:M2 and p:H and 20031214<=date). They score more than nine points more than expected in that game while the total still stayed under. Minnesota is 0-13 (-7.1 ppg) since December 14, 2003 after they scored more than expected last game which went under (team=Vikings and 0<=date). The Vikings won the battle of turnovers in that game, 3-0. Minnesota is 0-15 OU (-6.6 ppg) since December 14, 2003 after a game which they forced at least one turnover and did not commit any if they weren't a TD+ dog in that game(team=Vikings and p:turnovers=0 and p:TOM<=-1 and p:line<7 and 20031214<=date). Over the last several seasons, Minnesota has not been able to duplicate a big scoring day at home the next week. The Vikings are 0-7 OU (-7.8 ppg) since December 14, 2003 on the road the week after scoring 34+ points at home (team=Vikings and A and 34<=points and p:H and 20031214<=date). New Orleans also did not commit any turnovers last week in their win against Arizona. The Saints are 0-9 OU (-10.1 ppg) since October 11, 1992 as a home favorite the week after a win in which they committed no turnovers (team=Saints and HF and p:turnovers=0 and p:W and 19921011<=date) Teams that score big in playoff games have not been able to duplicate that next game. Teams are 0-9 OU (-5.1 ppg) in playoff database history (since 2002) after a playoff game which they scored more than 37 points with a total less than 57, allowed more than 10 points and have not won by an average of more than 20 in their last three games (playoffs=1 and points>=37 and total<57 and pooints>10 and p:margin+pp:margin+ppp:margin<60). Both offensives would need to be unaffected by solid defenses which can force mistakes in this on for this to go over this total. We don't see that happening. SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: NEW ORLEANS 27, Minnesota 1

4-STAR NY Jets and Indianapolis Under 39 - The Jets are going to have to keep the scoring down to have a chance in this game. Indianapolis is going to be content to move the ball down the field meticulously, picking their spots and not taking unnecessary chances. They should know after these first two playoff games that the Jets need teams to make mistakes in order to win. Look for the Colts to avoid those by going with a safe, ball control game plan. New York will play that style ball as well, because they have no other choice. This is exactly what the Jets did last week, in their 17-14 win against San Diego. New York punted eight times and let the Chargers shoot themselves in the foot enough to win. The Jets are 0-12 OU (-13.6 ppg) since December 17, 1995 after a Sunday game in which they punted at least eight times (team=Jets and punts>=8 and p:day=Sunday and date>=19951217). Having played Saturday the week before, the Jets had an extra day rest before the San Diego game, which had a total of 42.5. New York is 0-11 (-13.0 ppg) since October 19, 2003 after a game that went under which they had extra rest for (team=Jets and p:U and 6<=date). The Jets were trailing, 7-3, after the third quarter of that game before prevailing. The League is 0-7 OU (-12.6 ppg) since December 19, 1999 as a road dog after a win on the road as a 6.5+ point dog in which they were losing or tied at the end of the third quarter (AD and p:AW and 6.5<=p:line and p:M3<=0 and 19991219<=date). New York scored slightly less than expected in that win. The Jets are 0-9 OU (-8.8 ppg) since September 11, 2000 the week after a win on the road in which their dps was negative if they didn't win the second half by more than 10 points (team=Jets and p:AW and p:dps<0 and p:M4-p:M2<12 and 20000911<=date). Indianapolis was up 17-3 after three quarters on their way to a 20-3 victory. The Colts are 0-8-1 OU (-6.3 ppg) since December 14, 2003 as not a 2 TD+ favorite after a game which they were up at least 10 after the third quarter and had less than two sacks (team=Colts and line>-14 and 10<=p:M3 and p:sacks<2 and 20031214<=date). New York has controlled the ball for 32:08 a game this year. The Colts are 0-7 OU (-13.3 ppg) since September 18, 2005 at home when facing a team that has averaged at least 32 minutes of possession time season-to-date, if there was less than 600 passing yards last game (team=Colts and H and 32*60<=Average(o:time of possession@o:team and season) and 20050918<=date and p:PY+po:PY<600). The game plan we described at the beginning of this writeup is exactly what the Colts did last week. Baltimore is the most similar team in the league to the Jets, a smash-mouth, run-first, rely on defense throwback. Indianapolis took care of business, 20-3. Expect a similar result. SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: INDIANAPOLIS 20, NY Jets 6

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**GoBlue** · 01-23-2010, 08:07 AM

Re: 1-24-10

Powerplays
4* Minny

Teddy Covers lean from radio show:
INDY u41

The Edge
3* Under Jets/Indy
3* Indy
5* Over Minn/N.O.

Dave Blezow
15-4 One & Only Lock-------28-8-1 Last 37
Jets + 7 1/2 .Jets win Outright 26-20

The Prezzz
8* Under Jets/Colts

Gamblers Data (Fletcher)
Colts-7 bought the half 5*

Doc NFL
4 Unit Play – #302 Take Indianapolis -7 ½ over NY Jets
4 Unit Play – #303 Take Minnesota + 3 ½ over New Orleans

Randall the Handle NFL
Minnesota +3½ over NEW ORLEANS
Play: Minnesota +3½ (No bets).

N.Y. Jets +8 over INDIANAPOLIS
Play: N.Y. Jets +8 (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).

Nick parsons
*10* saints
7* colts

Pointwise
Rating:6 Indy 23 NY Jets 10
Rating:5 NO 30 Minny 20

Pointwise Phone Service
3* UNDER MINNY/NO, UNDER JETS/INDY
2* INDY, NO

**Mr. IWS** · 01-23-2010, 06:11 PM

Re: 1-24-10

tim trushel
saints/regular

1-24-10

1-24-10

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