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Re: 1-24-10
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40K Saints -3
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40K Saints -3
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Re: 1-24-10
Trace Adams
2000* - Minnesota Vikings, 500* - Minnesota MONEY LINE PLAY, 500* - NY Jets Forget the fact the Vikings struggled on the road to end the regular season, NONE of those games were contested in a domed stadium. This one is, and this one is against an opponent they have owned over the years, going 8-1 straight up in the 9 previous meetings.
This one is also being contested in the stadium that Brett Favre won his only Super Bowl in. You kinda feel like the karmic mojo is on the side of the Purple and Gold? I do, and I also feel the Vikings are the better team, thus I am willing to also back them on the MONEY LINE in this game.
I am not going to sit here and spit out against the spread trends, I am just going to tell you that this is the game Adrian Peterson busts free.
Peterson carried it 26 times last week against Dallas, and while he was held to under 100 yards, I loved the way Minny stayed committed to the run. That will pay dividends this weekend, as I don't feel New Orleans has the caliber of defense Dallas does, and I see AD breaking a big one or two for the Norsemen.
That will set up the pass for Favre, and even if Harvin is compromised with his recurring migranes, there is still Rice, Berrian, and Shiancoe there to haul in #4's passes.
As for the Saints win last week over the Cardinals, here is my reality of that apparent "get back on track blowout": Arizona had played the previous week in the late Sunday game. They had to go to overtime at home before dispatching Green Bay. The Arizona defense was shredded which goes to show they just weren't that good at stopping anyone anyway. Then, the Cards had to travel to New Orleans to play a rested Saints team. Not only play them, but play them on Saturday in the early game!
Arizona was just out of gas, and the fact they scored on the 1st play from scrimmage on that long run tells me the Saints are VUNERABLE to the run! I take much more respect from the way Minnesota handled Dallas then I do with the way New Orleans handled Arizona.
Minnesota also rates the edge in the kicking department, as Ryan Longwell is having one of the best season's of his long career. That fact only makes get a field goal or so that much more valauble.
Let it be known that I am taking the points with the Vikings as my 2000? play, but I also feel the Vikings will win this game outright, so I am putting another 500?s down on Minnesota on the MONEY LINE.
When the dust clears, it will be the Vikings playing for all the marbles on February 7th!
2000? - Minnesota Vikings plus the points
500? - Minnesota Vikings on the Money Line
In the AFC Title Game, I have gone back and forth with this pointspread, and after watching and listening to Peyton Manning in his interviews this week, I am not seeing the same Peyton that I normally see. Something is "askew" me thinks, and I also think that this Jets team is the "buzzsaw' that Jeff Saturday talked about in rehashing the Colts playoff failures of the past.
Indianapolis features no real running game to speak of, and we all know about "Revis Island", so you can forget trying to exploit his side of the field!
I am not going to harken back to the teams regular season meeting, as there were just too many variables going on for me to think that that meeting will be a prelude as to what is going to happen on Sunday, but I will say that I have been against the Flyboys the last 2 weeks, and both times they have proved me wrong.
Can they win outright?
Possibly, but with the points I definitely feel they will be inside of this number.
The pressure is ALL on the Colts, and that New York defense is capable of making life tricky for Manning in this game.
I don't see much more than a field goal or 4 points seperating these teams in this game.
Take the Jets plus the points.
500? - New York JetsComment
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Re: 1-24-10
Karl Garrett 50 DIMER - MINNESOTA VIKINGS....20 DIMER - NEW YORK JETS 50 DIMER - MINNESOTA VIKINGS
Prediction: Adrian Peterson is the MVP of this game!
I have a strong feeling that last week's 26 carry game in the Vikings 34-3 thumping of a Dallas team that did beat these Saints earlier in the season at the Superdome is going to lead to a monster output from Peterson in this game.
I believe the Dallas defense is by far a better defense than the one New Orleans trots out on the field. You saw the Cardinals go to the house on their 1st play from scrimmage last week, and you will see plenty of holes for Peterson and his backfield mate Chester Taylor to exploit in this game.
Once that run is established, Brett Favre will be free to pick apart the Saints secondary in any way, shape, and form he so desires.
You may say, "hey G-Man, but isn't the same true for Drew Brees and his mates?" I will answer "yes, to a certain extent".
I think the Vikings defense will do what they do best, and that is stop the run, making the pass a little more predictable to cover for the Minny defense. Brees is capable of forcing a throw or two, and you can expect a pick or two in Minnesota's favor in this game.
Don't worry about the Vikings poor regular season close on the road, those games were outdoors, this game is indoors and Minnesota is quite familiar with playing indoors.
Also don't worry about the sudden flash that Reggie Bush showed last week, I can assure you the Vikes will punch him in the mouth early in this game, reverting him back to the "soft" player that he really is!
The points are the way to go in this game, and don't be surprised at all if Minnesota winds up winning this game outright.
Take the Vikes!
20 DIMER - NEW YORK JETS
I have played out this game multiple times, and with what the Jets bring to the table, I don't see them getting blown out in this one.
Indy cannot run the ball effectively, and that will make the job of the #1 Jets defense that much easier - if it can ever be called "easy" against Peyton Manning - for the Flyboys to put the clamps on Manning.
Indy just won't be able to pull away in this game. This game stays close all the way.
I fully expect this one to be decided by no more than a field goal, and after watching New York go into Cincinnati 2 weeks ago and win outright, and after watching New York go out to San Diego last week and face a team that I feel was way more dangerous on offense than Indy is, and win that game too, I have to give the Jets a fighting chance in this game.
Take the points baby!Comment
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Re: 1-24-10
King Creole | NFL Total Sun, 01/24/10 - 6:40 PM ƒŠ
triple-dime bet 303 MIN / 304 NOS Over 52.5 BetUS
Analysis: Plays rated 1*, 2*, and 3* each... with a once-a-season 5* GOY
Sunday, Jan. 24th / 6:40pm ET / MINNESOTA VIKINGS @ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
5***** BEST BET on: OVER THE TOTAL
Looks like a SHOOT-OUT is in store in the NFC Championship Game between the Vikings and Saints. Get your action in as soon as possible as there is a VERY good chance this week's line will go UP off the opening number of 52.5 points. After all, NFC Championship games have gone an almost-PERFECT 6-1-1 O/U since the 2001 season. Also, we note that NFC Championship games have gone a PERFECT 9-0 O/U since 1991 when the host team is off a SU win of 14 > points (like the SAINTS)... and the OU line is 37 or more points.
One final note in regard to NFC Championship games. Going al the way back to the 1990 season, we note that 'shorter' home favorites of < 6 points (SAINTS) have gone a PERFECT 4-0-1 O/U when playing off an ATS win.
There's NO other way to go..... The NEW ORLEANS SAINTS are 6-0-1 O/U in ALL Playoff games since the 1991 season... and a PERFECT 5-0 O/U at home (63.2 PPG). On the flip side, we note that the MINNESOTA VIKINGS are a PERFECT 4-0 O/U as non-division PLAYOFF Underdogs... when they and their opponent are BOTH off an ATS win.
Now, let's proceed to our 'ALL-PLAYOFF' queries. These are OU Systems that pertain to ALL Playoff games. The numbers are so strong for a HIGH-scoring outcome... that we are compelled to attach our highest rating to this play (5-STARS).
As I mentioned last week, when the OU line in a PLayoff game is EXTREMELY high... it's ALL about the 'OVER'.
7-0 O/U Since 1999: All PLAYOFF favorites of > 1 point when the OU Line is 51 or more points (SAINTS). The average total points in these games is a whopping 67.1!
4-1-1 O/U since 2000: All PLAYOFF teams who scored 45 > points in their last game (SAINTS). Home teams are a PERFECT 2-0 O/U.
4-0 O/U since 1999: All PLAYOFF favorites of < 9 points off a SU Playoff win of 28 > points (SAINTS). Also, we note that in the Playoffs... when BOTH teams are playing off a Playoff win of 4 TD's or more (like the Saints AND the Vikings), the results are a PERFECT 2-0 O/U since the 1981 season.
3-0 O/U since 1982: All PLAYOFF road teams off a SU division round win in which they allowed 3 or less points (VIKINGS).
4-0 O/U since 1995: All non-Super Bowl PLAYOFF teams who allow MORE than (>) 4.5 yards-per-rush on Defense (SAINTS)... and who are also off a SU Playoff win.
7-0-1 O/U since 1983: All PLAYOFF home favorites of < 9 points playing off a SU Playoff win... and a SU loss in their LAST regular season game (SAINTS).
5-0 O/U since 1983: All PLAYOFF teams playing off BB SU wins of 28 or more points each (VIKINGS).
5-1 O/U since 1983: AŠll PLAYOFF road teams who allowed 7 or less points in EACH of their last two games (VIKINGS).
6-0-1 O/U since 2002: All PLAYOFF favorites playing off a SU and ATS Playoff win in which they were a favorite of -7 > points (SAINTS).
5-0-1 O/U since 2001: All PLAYOFF favorites off a home Playoff "OVER" (SAINTS)... versus an opponent off a home Playoff "UNDER" (VIKINGS).
10-0! O/U since 1983: All PLAYOFF teams who BEAT the Dallas Cowboys in their last Playoff game (VIKINGS).
2-0 O/U: All PLAYOFF games in which a NFC NORTH team (VIKINGS) is facing a NFC South team (SAINTS).... when the game line is 6 or less points.Comment
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Re: 1-24-10
Ron Raymond | NFL Side Sun, 01/24/10 - 3:00 PM ƒŠ
triple-dime bet 302 IND 7.5 (-110) Bodog vs 301 NYJ
Analysis: When INDIANAPOLIS COLTS team played as Home team as a Favorite - Playing in dome surface - During Week 16 to 20 - Scored 20 poi~nts or more FOR in their last game; The Colts are 3-7 ATS in this spot sine '83.Comment
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Re: 1-24-10
Randall the Handle
Jets @ Colts
Peyton Manning is amongst the best to ever play the quarterback position. He is a master of his craft. A puppeteer extraordinaire. A precision passer with an educated arm. It’s no wonder that he just won an unprecedented 4th Most Valuable Player award. Just seeing #18 march onto the field exudes confidence to all that are around him and fear into all those that lineup opposite him. Well, almost all. The Jets have become fearless. Love ‘em or hate ‘em, they have an undeniable karma about them. More importantly, Coach Rex Ryan has the Jets believing that they are indestructible and recent play is proof, in case of any doubters. After sputtering to a 5-6 start, this New York squad kicked into another gear at the end of November. Winners of seven of eight since then, the Jets bought into the most prototypical football formula of running the ball and playing good defence. In those eight games, including playoffs, the defence has allowed a measly 75 points. That’s an average of 9.3 per game. While we can’t reasonably expect the Jets to hold this talented Indy bunch to less than double-digits, we can expect them to make the Colts work for every point they do tally. If the Jets could hold the AFC’s top scoring team - the Chargers with 454 on the year - to a mere 14 points, they should be able to contain Peyton and Co. to an output that is comfortable for our purposes. Taking points, the Jets have excelled with eight covers in past 10 while also covering seven of their last eight games overall. Of course, running the ball effectively will be key and with an offensive line that features four first-round picks and its top ranked running offence this season, New York can succeed against Indy’s undersized run stoppers. Conversely, the Colts running game is atrocious. It’s great that the Colts can rely on Manning’s passing prowess to move the ball but an aggressive Jets defence and the amazing cover skills of Darrelle Revis may make the Colts too one dimensional for this type of opponent. Joseph Addai has done very little this season and is largely responsible for Indianapolis’ 32nd ranked ground game. While there is concern over the inexperience and current abilities of Jets QB Mark Sanchez, he is being asked to simply manage the game while allowing the strengths of his team to pave the way to success, ala Trent Dilfer and the 2000 Ravens. The discrepancy from top seeded teams to lower seeds is not as great as it was in previous eras. The past five seasons have produced a Super Bowl participant that played in the first round of the playoffs (Steelers in 2005, Colts in 2006, Giants in 2007, Cardinals in 2008). Having this zealous group get there would not be a huge surprise and having these abundance of points to play with, makes our selection all that more attractive.
TAKING: NY Jets +8 RISKING: 2.2 units to win 2
Vikings @ Saints
The closest New Orleans has come to a Super Bowl has been the nine times it has hosted one. The Saints are one of just five teams to never play in a Super Bowl (along with the Browns, Texans, Jaguars and Lions). Now, just a mere 43 years into their existence, the opportunity knocks. The only thing that stands in the way of an inaugural trip is the Minnesota Vikings. The Vikes have had an impressive year, led by the resurgence of QB Brett Favre. Favre has performed well for his newest team, aided by the dazzling play of receivers Sidney Rice and rookie standout, Percy Harvin. The top-seeded Saints were outstanding. They were 13-0 until a visit by the Cowboys ended their undefeated streak in mid December. New Orleans led the NFL with 510 points scored, 9th most in NFL history. With QB Drew Brees at the helm, the Saints were tops in yards per game (403.8), were 4th in passing yards per game (272.2) and 6th in rushing offense (131.6). The host was the only team in team in the NFL to rank in top six in both running and passing categories. Offensively, Favre vs. Brees has the makings of a classic quarterback duel. However, there are concerns on both sides. The Saints did not finish well. They lost their final three games and looked very ordinary in doing so. But it appears that Sean Payton knew what he was doing as he rested many of his starters, got a few physical practices out of them and then with the return of several injured players, the Saints stepped up and whooped the dangerous Cardinals. A bigger concern lies with the Vikings being on the road. Minnesota was perfect at home with a 9-0 mark including last week’s dismantling of the Cowboys. Leaving Minneapolis was a different story. The Vikings were 4-4 in road games this season but wins occurred early against the woeful Browns, Lions and Rams. Minnesota’s final five away games resulted in four losses, including final three at Arizona, Carolina and Chicago. As with all teams, there are pros and cons that could sway our choice but there is an ‘X’ factor that ultimately tips our hand to the home team. Safety Darren Sharper ball hawking abilities make him an impact player that can change the complexion of any game in a hurry. This season, Sharper had a league-leading nine interceptions, in addition to having three returned for touchdowns. Most importantly is his familiarity with this day’s opponents. Sharper played with Brett Favre in Green Bay for the first eight years of his career. As luck would have it, Sharper found himself in a Vikings uniform for four years before the being let go and winding up here. His knowledge of both Favre and the Vikings systems will play a significant role in deciding this one. Enough to have the Saints marching into Miami for their first Super Bowl appearance.
TAKING: New Orleans –3½ RISKING: 2.1 units to win to 2Comment
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Re: 1-24-10
Kelso's
40 UnitsColts (-8½) over Ny Jets
3:00 PM -- Lucas Oil Stadium
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (15-2) -8.5 over New York Jets (11-7) Prediction: Indianapolis by 14-17 Starting Time: 3:00 TV: CBS Comments: The first issue that must be addressed here is the New York Jets 29-17 win over Indianapolis in Week 16. It has been lost on many that when Indianapolis pulled its starters in the third quarter of this game, which was meaningless for them, they were up 17-10 and dominating the game. They had 17 first downs on their first six drives—two of which were 80 or more yards—and Indianapolis quarterback Peyton Manning was picking the New York defense apart and had 192 yards pass, with no interceptions. New York, which was playing its guts out in this one because it had to win to keep alive its playoff hopes, did not get into the game until the Colts’ starters were pulled. It is questionable if the Jets can keep up with Indianapolis when it brings its “A” game for 60 minutes. It does not take a genius to figure out what each team plans to do in this one. The Jets are going to try to control the pace of the game with their running attack and keep Manning on the bench. The Colts are going to try to open up an early lead, keep the pedal to the metal, and force New York to beat them with the arm of rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez. For the record, Indianapolis comes out firing in every game and has outscored its opponents in the first quarter, 57-20, this season. The figures say Indianapolis has a far better chance of seeing its plans play out than do the Jets. It also is of significance sports books are getting buried under late, and big, money on the Jets, which have been bet out from -7.0 to -8.5.
Cloudy with a 70-percent chance of rain. Winds blowing from the Southwest at 15-25 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 45.Comment
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