If this is your first visit, be sure to
check out the FAQ by clicking the
link above. You may have to register
before you can post: click the register link above to proceed. To start viewing messages,
select the forum that you want to visit from the selection below.
Jets are now playing in their third straight road game, in a third different time zone, and counting the end of the regular season this will be their sixth road game in eight weeks. Contrast that with the Colts, who were resting players (more on that in a minute) the last two weeks of the season and had a bye two weeks ago. Have to believe the home team is the much fresher squad. There are also several systems in place that point to the home team, including the fact that home favorites of this range are 11-3 ATS in the Conference Finals since 1983. From a fundamental standpoint, while it is true that the Jets beat the Colts in the regular season meeting, of course that came with Indy playing backups for a good portion of the game. It is INCREDIBLY notable that the Colts led 15-10 when the starters were pulled, with the only NY touchdown coming on a kickoff return. Other than that, when the game was Jets starters vs Colts starters it was Indy with an impressive 17-6 first down edge! Finally, the Colts have been in this situation before, losing a meaningless regular season game to a team late in the year and then facing them in the playoffs. It happened in both 2003 and 2004 against Denver, and Indy drilled the Broncos in the playoffs, winning by 31 and 25 points. Giving Manning a short turnaround second look at a defense has proven problematic for the foe, and no reason to expect anything different here. Jets have had a nice (and lucky - opposing kickers are 0-5 on FG's) run, but it comes to an end here; Colts 23-10, and see the totals writeup for even more support in regards to the side.
2* NY Jets/Indianapolis UNDER [3pm]
Jets defense is good, very good, and they are going to cause some problems for the Colts, which is a big reason we "only" call for Indy to have 23 points in this one. However, while it is the Gang Green stop unit that gets all of the attention, quietly the Colts have put up some great defensive numbers this season, namely allowing just 78.1 rushing yards per game in 17 contests this year. That of course plays right into the strength of what the Jets want to do on offense, and as such cannot see the Jets denting the dish often. The Under is the way to go here.
Lenny D's NFL "VEGAS ICON" (Total) - #1 Play
The "VEGAS ICON" is former linesmaker Lenny Del Genio's TOP RATED play in ALL sports! For the 1st time ever, he releases one on a TOTAL! And for good reason. Lenny is 8-1-2 w/ ALL NFL Totals since Thanksgiving, including 2 for 2 in the Playoffs w/ Over GB/Ari & Under Bal/Indy cashing by a combined 69 pts!
Nick's *10* Vikes/Saints "BIG EA$Y TOTAL"! 64%
***BIG GAME HUNTERS WANTED*** Parsons was a totally awesome 2-1 with his *10* NFL selections last weekend; one of his biggest winners was his *10* "totals play" on the Vikes/Cowboys "under"; if you liked that easy beatdown WINNER, then get the correct call in this MONSTER NFC BLOCKBUSTER! Be there!
Ryan's 25* AFC Championship Game of the Year
Ryan won his 25* AFC Divisional Game of the Year on the Jets defeating the Chargers SU! He is 5-2 ATS w/ recent 10* releases. This play is by far the best one yet + comes with his extensive + complete research showing you why this play will win. Included is an 83% ATS 10-year system+ angles posting a 114-33 ATS mark.
Ryan's NFC 15* Titan Massacre
Ryan is 2-1 ATS with his 15* Titan editions + won his 25* AFC Divisional Game of the Year on the Jets last week. He is also 5-2 ATS with 10* Titans. Join him for this 15* Titan that also has a complete research report showing all of the reasons why Ryan strongly believes this play will win BIG. Combined he is 8-3 ATS L11 releases.
Here is what we saw in the AFC Playoffs last week the Jets came out with a conservative plan to hang in the game at San Diego, hoping to keep it close enough to make a few plays to win as the afternoon progressed. Meanwhile the Colts played a methodical game against an opponent that lacked offensive punch, focusing more on avoiding mistakes that could give points away than attacking, and forcing the opposition to have to execute their way down the field to score. It ultimately led to a pair of easy Unders, with neither game coming within 11 points of the Total.
Here is what we are going to see in the AFC Playoffs this week the same thing. Rex Ryan gutted out that win at San Diego by doing what he had to do run the football and rely on his defense. 39 of the 63 snaps were running plays, and there were only two first-down passes the entire game. They produced precious little, with only 14 first downs and 262 yards, but a key interception set up a short field for a TD early in the 4th quarter, and then Shonn Greene broke that 53-yard TD run midway through the final stanza. Take away that burst from Greene and the offense generated an anemic 3.4 yards per snap. And that was after only coming up with 15 first downs at Cincinnati the prior week, when 41 of 56 snaps were running plays. It is partially a tribute to conservative play, but also the blunt fact that the passing game was 31st in the NFL in yardage this season, and with rookie QB Mark Sanchez having far more INTs than TD passes they simply can not rely on that part of their arsenal to make plays. If anything the focus here is even more devoted to slowing the tempo,running the football, and reducing the game to as few possessions as possible. We always like to look to an Under when a quality underdog brings that kind of game plan. What is even better is when the favorite does not mind that same flow, and will go out of their way to take the air out of the ball with a lead in the second half. That is the Indianapolis way, and in Peyton Manning the Colts may have the best clock manager with a lead that the NFL has ever produced. While the defense was indeed solid in last weeks win over Baltimore, helping their cause was the fact that the clock management of the offense limited the Ravens to just 55 offensive snaps, making it even more difficult for Joe Flacco & Co. to ever find a rhythm.
Clinching this for us is that the Colts do not necessarily get to a lead all that easily anyway for as much as we respect the work of Manning this season, the bottom line is that this offense drew a most favorable schedule, only having two games all season against teams that finished in the leagues Top 190 in Total Defense. The running game never developed, and outside of Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark the receiving corps lacks playmakers. Given the way that Darrelle Revis can shadow Wayne, and with the Jets among the NFLs best at defending TEs this season, Mannings best options are taken away.That turns this into a battle for field position from the Colts as well instead of going on the attack against those New York blitzes look for the focus to be on ball security, forcing the Jet offense to make plays to earn their points. It adds up to pace and efficiency levels that make points very hard to come by, and the risk of turnovers creating easy scores is low, since avoiding those mistakes will be a big part of the conservative game plans.
NFL NY Jets @ Indianapolis 3:00 PM EST 20* NY Jets +8.5
NFL Minnesota @ New Orleans 6:40 PM EST 20* New Orleans -3.5
CBB Georgia Tech @ Florida St 12:00 PM EST 20* Georgia Tech +3.5
NBA Dallas @ New York 1:00 PM EST 10* Dallas -3
CBB Cimncinnati @ Louisville 12:00 PM EST 10* Louisville -7.5
CBB Pittsburgh @ Seton Hall 2:00 PM EST 10* Pittsburgh +2.5
Comment