Tweet
Re: 1-24-10
Malinsky
4- Jets/Indy Under 39
Malinsky
4- Jets/Indy Under 39
-
Re: 1-24-10
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS -7
The last time the teams met, in Week 15 of the regular season, Indianapolis had a perfect record and home-field advantage throughout the postseason already locked up. Leading 15-10 in the third quarter, Colts coach Jim Caldwell made a controversial decision to rest his starters and wound up getting beat 29-15; it's not going to happen again.
More than ever, the NFL is becoming a passer’s league. In the last five years, rules have been tightened up to protect quarterbacks from injuries and keep defenders from pounding receivers a few yards beyond the line of scrimmage.
Ultimately, I believe this will be the Jets undoing as Mark Sanchez is prone to the turnover and will finally be forced to "make a couple of plays" in this one if they have any shot at winning this game; he'll be in tough against a re-juvinated Colt's defense though.
On the other side of the field: Jim Caldwell’s decision to rest his starters the final two games of the regular season drew a lot of heat. But it looks like a smart decision in hindsight; not just because the Colts’ offense returned to form fairly quickly, but because their defense flew to the ball all night against the Ravens.
In his first game since winning an unprecedented fourth NFL MVP award, Peyton Manning threw for two TD's last Saturday night in the Indianapolis Colts’ 20-3 victory over the Baltimore Ravens. The decisive win came after a playoff bye, something that had been a plague, not a respite, for Manning and his teammates.
Directing a patient offense, Manning finished 30 of 44 for 246 yards. He showed the Ravens there’s a price to pay for keeping the ball out of his hands: Once he gets it, he doesn’t give it back
Keep in mind as well that Indianapolis has excelled in this position all season long; 10-5 ATS when playing the roll of favorite.
Bottom line: The Jets Cinderella run ends; look for INDIANAPOLIS to improve to 9-5 ATS vs. conference opponents and for New York to fall to 1-2 ATS this season as a road dog of 7 1/2 to 10 points!
*6* COLTS.Comment
-
Re: 1-24-10
Bob Balfe
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS -3.5
Both teams have explosive offense. The Saints are hard to beat at home and this is truly a game that home field advantage means a lot. The Vikings have a great defense, but on the road they were just 4-4 this season. New Orleans has so many weapons that I believe Sean Payton's play calling will have the Vikings scratching their heads all day. Adrian Peterson has fumbling problems and the Saints Defense has a ton of play makers that can force turnovers. The Saints Defense is nothing more than average, but they make big plays and turnovers mean everything in this league. Look for Brett Favre to have a decent day, but its going to take a whole lot to stop this Saints Offense. Take New Orleans.Comment
-
Re: 1-24-10
Evan Altemus
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS -3.5
New Orleans has been dominant at home this season, putting up much better statistics. Minnesota is banged up and their best play maker, Percy Harvin, is dealing with severe migraine headaches. The Vikings defense will be vulnerable this week against a Saints offense that can exploit them through the air because Drew Brees will have time to throw due to their great offensive line. Last season when these two teams met, New Orleans would have won if not for several turnovers. Minnesota has not played well on the road, and the Saints defense is able to create turnovers, especially at home. Look for the Saints to get the home win and cover.
3 UNIT SELECTION SAINTS.Comment
-
Re: 1-24-10
Tony George
Vikings/Saints OVER 53
Minnys defense will not repeat last week’s shutdown of Dallas on the road where the Saint flourish. The Saints have the #1 offense at home. The Vikes have the 13th ranked offense going up against the NFLs 25th ranked defense. Both QBs and WRs for BOTH teams are awesome, top shelf guys. Adrian Petersen for the Vikes is a big playmaker, and Reggie Bush is a big playmaker. There is way too much talent in the offensive arsenal on both teams for this not to go way over the total. My power rating on this game for the total is 64. That is an 11 point overlay. Too much to ignore. When the Vikes struggle on offense, they cut loose Favre and let him do his thing. This may be Brett’s last game and rest assured they will let him do his thing.
Play 1.5 Units on the OVERComment
-
Re: 1-24-10
Spartan
NEW YORK JETS +8.5
Well I suppose I am really showing my age here but that's okay, it will give you an idea of just how many big games I've seen through the years. I well recall when these teams met back in the Super Bowl and Joe Namath was making brash promises and then backing them up. If I recall the Jets were 18 point dogs that day and most folks felt the Colts would simply over power them. Now here we are years later and these teams are hooking up to see who get their ticket punched to the big show. I realize I lot of the TV experts are already proclaiming the Colts the AFC champions and the talking heads seem to assume this game is just a formality. I have a couple of problems with all that nonsense, first of all if you just listen to ESPN all day and make wagers based on what information you absorbed from the talking heads you will find yourself bankrupt, soon. Secondly, if this Jets team can travel out to San Diego and take care of the Chargers in their house, then in my view they are perfectly capable of going into Indy and going toe to toe with Mr Manning and his Colts. Rex Ryan has his team truly believing they can pull this thing off and so much of competing and excelling in games of this magnitude is self esteem, swagger and confidence. And this Jets team I have been watching the past few weeks has an abundance of all the above. I have total respect for Peyton Manning and when all is said and done he will likely go down in history and the greatest quarterback of all time, but with that said, I feel the Colts are just carrying too heavy a price tag here, I firmly feel the Jets will compete and keep this thing within the number when all is said and done. Either way a rookie coach will be leading the AFC champions into the Super Bowl. I look for a helluva game and a New York Jets cover guys!Comment
-
Re: 1-24-10
Lenny Del Genio
Vikings/Saints OVER 53
Neither of these teams should have any difficulty scoring as they ranked 1-2 in the league in touchdowns scored with the Saints putting the ball in the end zone 64 times thus far. Last week, New Orleans scored 45 points for the fifth time this season. They have scored 24 or more in every win and topped the 30-point plateau ten times. They should have little difficulty scoring on a Vikings defense that has surrendered a ghastly 145 points in its last five road contests. On the flip side, Minnesota has scored 30 or more in each of its last three games and six of its last eight. They actually scored 30 or more 11 different times during the year, ranking ahead of the Saints. New Orleans defense is nothing special, allowing an average of nearly three touchdowns per game. Clearly, the winner of this game is going to be the team that outscores the other. Minnesota averages 29.6 PPG and the Saints are at 32.6. We're already talking numbers that are at least a field goal higher than what we are seeing for the posted total. Throw in the fact that eight of the last ten meetings between the team, including a 30-27 Vikings win last year without Favre, have gone Over and we really like what we see. We cashed the Vikings as three-point underdogs in that game, but were quite fortunate to as the Saints had two special teams TD's and could have had a third. Do not discount the Reggie Bush factor. Also, New Orleans led the NFL in defensive scores. Let's not forget that Favre cost the Packers two playoff games at the end of his stint due to bad decisions. The trends is this game overwhemlingly favor the Over. The Vikings are a perfect 6-0 Over when as a road dog of three points or less. New Orleans is 11-2 Over when favored by or taking three or less, 11-3 Over off a home win and 17-6 Over off a spread win. Against teams averaging 27 PPG or more, the Saints score 40 points per game. They are 15-5 Over vs. teams with a winning record under Sean Payton. Should be an exciting shootout. Over Minnesota/New Orleans is our NFL "VEGAS ICON."Comment
-
Re: 1-24-10
Steve Duemig
Sunday's Winners
30 Dime - Jets-Colts (UNDER)
Line opened at a key number of 41 which was very smart from the lines maker standpoint. They KNOW that public will be betting the over in both of these games so they open it up right on the key. Sure enough the sharp money came in as expected on the under and it went all the way down to 39. The whole time however showed the larger percentage of bets were being played on the OVER. Money moves lines not bet percentages. So we had a reverse line move early on the O/U total. Well now we see the number almost back to where it started from and I predict that it will be there come game time. When the game returns to 41 you must follow the sharp money here and play the UNDER. I know it's hard to root for nothing to happen but with the Jets, that's pretty much what you get. The only way this game gets out of hand is to have numerous defensive TDs or special teams returns. The Colts will try to get the lead and then milk the clock. The Jets will do what they always do, run the ball and hope you make a mistake. This makes for a short low scoring game.
10 Dime - Vikings-Saints (UNDER)
Once again we saw the first move immediately to the under. Most sharp bettors will bet any playoff line in the 50's blindly to the UNDER. My numbers show 50 as the top line number in this game. & TD's is a lot in a conference final when you think about it. Both are very good offensive teams but even they tend to get conservative with a lead and one game to get into the Super Bowl. What usually looks like a shootout is always the opposite. Games like this go over when there are special teams or defensive TD's. We saw a reverse line move in this game big time concerning the O/U. 70% of bets were going to the OVER yet the line moved from the opener of 54 down to 52. That is something that we have played with success all year and we won't stop doing it now. The total is now moving right back to the starting number and I predict with the offensive fire power that these teams have that the public will continue to bet the OVER. It may even go past the original opener which will set up a nice middle possibility for those that played the under early. Wait on this game to get the best possible total to play the UNDER.
5 Dime - Colts
The Conference Championships have always seen one blow out every year. If there was a game to pick this week that would result in a blow out this would be the game. Colts too much offense and a underrated defense. Jets a very good defense and an awful offense that frequently took advantage of short fields to score their TD's. Manning doesn't turn it over and he's not facing tom Brady. We get the dream matchup in the Super Bowl and we don't have to hear any Rex Ryan or Brett Favre stories for the next two weeks. Maybe now I can turn my TV back on. The initial move off the opener ws to the Colts and there has been no buy back. That tells me all I need to know.
5 Dime - Saints
Are you as sick of the Favre hype as I am? If you aren't then you aren't gonna like what we have to say. I can never remember a time when I purposely turned off the TV or turned it to another channel, as I did this week, to avoid listening to all the BS I was going to hear about the old man. That's what he is too, an old man! He has taken this team as far as it can go. No one thought he could get it done against the Cowboys last week, but he and his team did. They did it with the aid of a raucous home crowd and some brain cramps by the Cowboy defense and the QB Romo. Drew Brees is NOT Tony Romo and the Vikings and Favre are NOT at home this week, and there in lies the difference. The Vikings lost 4 games this year and all of them were on the road. There is not a harder top place to play on the road than Nawlins, and there's not a harder QB to play against than Drew Brees.
The Viking secondary is there Achilles heel and Brees will exploit the hell out of it today for enough to win this game easily. They still have to run the ball but Brees has so many weapons, unlike the Cowboys, that he can choose from that will make life difficult for the Vikings D. The Saints will NOT make the same mistake as the Cowboys did last week and try to run the ball inside the tackles like the Boys so unbelievably stupid try to do last week after having success with Jones rushing on the edges. This is where Reggie Bush comes in. He ran with a purpose last week and it was exciting to watch. If he does the same today, the Saints will have a field day. The Cowboys and Romo's decision making were not the best last week but this is now the most accurate QB in the league that the Vikes are going against, who is a good decision maker. I think the Saints and Brees lost focus at the end of the season and that's why they faltered just enough. We saw last week that the focus was back against the Cardinals and they will prove today that their record was not a fluke. The Vikes record was a fluke. They played the easiest schedule of anyone in the NFL. Today the cream will rise to the top. The Saints come marchin in!!!Comment
Comment