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Re: 1-24-10
Craig Davis
Sunday's Lineup
100 Dime – Vikings-Saints OVER
Well, here it is... my highest rated game of the playoffs thus far... and it happens to be a total. We could guess all day as to whether or not the Saints will beat the Vikings or Brett Favre will pull off more magic and get the upset for his Vikings. No one knows, as both of these teams are more than capable of winning. Why do you think the number is 3 1/2?? Home field advantage. If this game was played at a neutral site, I think it's safe to say the line would be a pick 'em. But that doesn't matter to me today... all I care about is how many points these two offenses score, and I'm saying they both surpass 30 points today. In fact, I'd be surprised if there were a combined 4 punts in this game. These two just don't believe in kicking the ball back to the other team unless it's after they've scored. How many times do you NOT remember the Vikings and Saints going for it on 4th down this year? Shoot, even last week both teams converted a fourth down opportunity.
For the season, the Vikings converted 8 of 12 4th down opportunities while the Saints didn't have as much luck, percentage wise, but did "go for it" 15 times during the regular season (converting 6). What's even more impressive is the fact that both of these teams converted nearly 50% of their 3rd down chances... so it wasn't like 3rd downs were a big deal for either of these teams.
Drew Brees vs. Brett Favre. The student vs. the teacher. Brees led his team to score the most points in the NFL before blasting the Cardinals last week by 31 points. Favre led his team to scoring the second-most points in the NFL this year before leading them to a 31-point win over the Cowboys. Forget defense folks... neither of these teams have much of a defense to speak of regardless of what they did last week. Those who play the under today will point to the fact the Vikings held the prolific Cowboys offense to just three points while the Saints shut down Kurt Warner and company to the tune of 14 points last week.
Honestly, I don't care. I saw those games and you likely did too. First of all, Minnesota's defense only shows up at home. Secondly, Dallas moved the ball very well but missed two field goals, had several costly turnovers that stalled drives. Let's be honest, the 3 points Dallas put on the board was more about the Cowboys ineptness on offense rather than Minnesota's staggering defense. As for the Saints allowing only 14 points to Arizona... well, let's just say once Kurt Warner was "horizontal" that game was over. After an interception, Warner tried to make a tackle but was blind-sided by an oncoming defender and was absolutely laid out. Warner clearly wasn't the same and was eventually replaced by Matt Leinart... and we all know how that goes. I am a firm believer that if those four teams all hooked up again this weekend, the final outcomes would be completely different. I'm not saying the Vikings and Saints wouldn't have won, but the scores would have been different. I'm telling you... the Vikings and Saints don't have good defenses.
And if you're looking at averages, please be smart about it. First, let's look at the Saints. The numbers say they allow just over 20 PPG for the season. However, a closer look at their schedule shows that they allowed a good portion more than 20 points when playing teams that actually have an offense. In their first two games of the year (vs. Detroit and Philly), the Saints allowed a combined 49 points as both scored over 20. They also allowed 27 to the Giants, 34 to the Dolphins, 27 to Atlanta, 23 to the freaking Rams, 30 to the Redskins, 23 to Atlanta, and 24 to Dallas. Oh sure, if you throw in the games against Buffalo and Tampa Bay and the Jets, it's easy to see why the Saints could have "skewed" average numbers. Those teams would struggle to score against high school teams. The Saints give up points and that's all there is to it.
In terms of the Vikings, well, on paper they appear to be even better than the Saints, defensively. But a closer look shows Minnesota actually struggling against teams that rank higher than 16th in overall offense. Anyone can limit the Lions and Bears and Seahawks to 10 points or less... but when the competition stiffened, the Vikings defense folded. How about 31 points to Baltimore AT HOME? What about 36 from the Bears or 26 from the Matt Moore-led Panthers or the 30 from the Cardinals or the 26 and 23 from Green Bay or the 27 from Pittsburgh or 24 from San Francisco?
There is absolutely no doubt these two teams will score in the high-20s tonight as we're still dealing with the top two offenses in the NFL. And please understand I'm not just referring to the last three Vikings road games either... though those do serve a purpose. Minnesota allowed 30, 26 and 36 to Arizona, Carolina and Chicago to end the regular season. They aren't completely 100% healthy right now and will need to substitute multiple times in order to try and slow down this high-powered Brees-led attack. EJ Henderson, the heart and soul of this defense has been out since their 36-30 Monday night loss to Chicago and will be sorely missed today. Ray Edwards isn't 100% and Antoine Winfield hasn't looked the same since coming back from injury. The rest of the secondary, in my opinion, is a joke. Brees should be able to shred this unit with relative ease with a healthy, balanced dose of running (whoever's hot at the moment) and mid-range passing game. For the most part, no one has showed the ability to stop this offense and I see no reason Minnesota gets to them early tonight.
Finally, let's just take a history quiz. How many of the last 10 Saints/Vikings meetings have gone OVER the total? 4? 6? 7? Try 8. Eight of their last 10 meetings have gone over the posted total. In fact, their last meeting took place in Minneapolis in 2008 and resulted in a 30-27 Minnesota win. That game not only went OVER the posted total that day, it would have been good enough to go OVER this number. Other Vikings/Saints scores include 38-31, 32-31, 25-24 and 31-24. All but one of those scores would have gone OVER today's posted total. Simply put, these two teams realize what's on the line today and, unlike the Jets, they have the ability to score on just about anyone. I like both teams to score over 30 points tonight, making it my biggest NFL total of the year.
Craig Davis
Sunday's Lineup
100 Dime – Vikings-Saints OVER
Well, here it is... my highest rated game of the playoffs thus far... and it happens to be a total. We could guess all day as to whether or not the Saints will beat the Vikings or Brett Favre will pull off more magic and get the upset for his Vikings. No one knows, as both of these teams are more than capable of winning. Why do you think the number is 3 1/2?? Home field advantage. If this game was played at a neutral site, I think it's safe to say the line would be a pick 'em. But that doesn't matter to me today... all I care about is how many points these two offenses score, and I'm saying they both surpass 30 points today. In fact, I'd be surprised if there were a combined 4 punts in this game. These two just don't believe in kicking the ball back to the other team unless it's after they've scored. How many times do you NOT remember the Vikings and Saints going for it on 4th down this year? Shoot, even last week both teams converted a fourth down opportunity.
For the season, the Vikings converted 8 of 12 4th down opportunities while the Saints didn't have as much luck, percentage wise, but did "go for it" 15 times during the regular season (converting 6). What's even more impressive is the fact that both of these teams converted nearly 50% of their 3rd down chances... so it wasn't like 3rd downs were a big deal for either of these teams.
Drew Brees vs. Brett Favre. The student vs. the teacher. Brees led his team to score the most points in the NFL before blasting the Cardinals last week by 31 points. Favre led his team to scoring the second-most points in the NFL this year before leading them to a 31-point win over the Cowboys. Forget defense folks... neither of these teams have much of a defense to speak of regardless of what they did last week. Those who play the under today will point to the fact the Vikings held the prolific Cowboys offense to just three points while the Saints shut down Kurt Warner and company to the tune of 14 points last week.
Honestly, I don't care. I saw those games and you likely did too. First of all, Minnesota's defense only shows up at home. Secondly, Dallas moved the ball very well but missed two field goals, had several costly turnovers that stalled drives. Let's be honest, the 3 points Dallas put on the board was more about the Cowboys ineptness on offense rather than Minnesota's staggering defense. As for the Saints allowing only 14 points to Arizona... well, let's just say once Kurt Warner was "horizontal" that game was over. After an interception, Warner tried to make a tackle but was blind-sided by an oncoming defender and was absolutely laid out. Warner clearly wasn't the same and was eventually replaced by Matt Leinart... and we all know how that goes. I am a firm believer that if those four teams all hooked up again this weekend, the final outcomes would be completely different. I'm not saying the Vikings and Saints wouldn't have won, but the scores would have been different. I'm telling you... the Vikings and Saints don't have good defenses.
And if you're looking at averages, please be smart about it. First, let's look at the Saints. The numbers say they allow just over 20 PPG for the season. However, a closer look at their schedule shows that they allowed a good portion more than 20 points when playing teams that actually have an offense. In their first two games of the year (vs. Detroit and Philly), the Saints allowed a combined 49 points as both scored over 20. They also allowed 27 to the Giants, 34 to the Dolphins, 27 to Atlanta, 23 to the freaking Rams, 30 to the Redskins, 23 to Atlanta, and 24 to Dallas. Oh sure, if you throw in the games against Buffalo and Tampa Bay and the Jets, it's easy to see why the Saints could have "skewed" average numbers. Those teams would struggle to score against high school teams. The Saints give up points and that's all there is to it.
In terms of the Vikings, well, on paper they appear to be even better than the Saints, defensively. But a closer look shows Minnesota actually struggling against teams that rank higher than 16th in overall offense. Anyone can limit the Lions and Bears and Seahawks to 10 points or less... but when the competition stiffened, the Vikings defense folded. How about 31 points to Baltimore AT HOME? What about 36 from the Bears or 26 from the Matt Moore-led Panthers or the 30 from the Cardinals or the 26 and 23 from Green Bay or the 27 from Pittsburgh or 24 from San Francisco?
There is absolutely no doubt these two teams will score in the high-20s tonight as we're still dealing with the top two offenses in the NFL. And please understand I'm not just referring to the last three Vikings road games either... though those do serve a purpose. Minnesota allowed 30, 26 and 36 to Arizona, Carolina and Chicago to end the regular season. They aren't completely 100% healthy right now and will need to substitute multiple times in order to try and slow down this high-powered Brees-led attack. EJ Henderson, the heart and soul of this defense has been out since their 36-30 Monday night loss to Chicago and will be sorely missed today. Ray Edwards isn't 100% and Antoine Winfield hasn't looked the same since coming back from injury. The rest of the secondary, in my opinion, is a joke. Brees should be able to shred this unit with relative ease with a healthy, balanced dose of running (whoever's hot at the moment) and mid-range passing game. For the most part, no one has showed the ability to stop this offense and I see no reason Minnesota gets to them early tonight.
Finally, let's just take a history quiz. How many of the last 10 Saints/Vikings meetings have gone OVER the total? 4? 6? 7? Try 8. Eight of their last 10 meetings have gone over the posted total. In fact, their last meeting took place in Minneapolis in 2008 and resulted in a 30-27 Minnesota win. That game not only went OVER the posted total that day, it would have been good enough to go OVER this number. Other Vikings/Saints scores include 38-31, 32-31, 25-24 and 31-24. All but one of those scores would have gone OVER today's posted total. Simply put, these two teams realize what's on the line today and, unlike the Jets, they have the ability to score on just about anyone. I like both teams to score over 30 points tonight, making it my biggest NFL total of the year.
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