1-29-10

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 1-29-10

KB Hoops

5* Atlanta Hawks -4 **POD**
4* Philadelphia 76ers UNDER 204
4* Minnesota T-Wolves Pk
4* San Antonio Spurs -5
3* Philadelphia 76ers +6.5
3* Oklahoma City Thunder -1.5
3* Columbia +8.5

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 1-29-10

Vegas Sports Experts

The VSE NHL Plays are:

10* Take Washington (-260) over Florida

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The VSE NBA Plays are:


10* Take Portland (+5) over Houston

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The VSE NCAA Plays are:

10* Take WI-Green Bay (+7.5) over Butler

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 1-29-10

Mark Roth

15 Units Boston Celtics

Good Luck

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 1-29-10

Lenny Del Genio

BOSTON CELTICS +3.5

We fully expect the vast majority of the public to be going against the Celtics here as they are off a crushing loss in Orlando Thursday night, allowing a gimme layup with under ten seconds remaining giving the Magic the 96-94 victory. That layup actually cashed a winning Over ticket for us, so we were happy. You can bet that Boston was certainly not and things get no easier for Doc Rivers team here as they travel to Atlanta to face a Hawks team that has already beaten them three times this season by scores of 97-86, 93-85 and 102-96. Two of those, the first and the third came in Beantown. You might think that we are making an excellent case to 'play on' Atlanta here, but as noted earlier this is going to be a contrarian play. Several trends back us up here. The Celtics did cover last night vs. the Magic and are now 31-15 ATS as an underdog since Kevin Garnett arrived, with all but two of those games coming on the road. They are 16-7 SU away from home, which is a league best. Even more important is that they are 10-1 ATS in triple revenge situations during the Garnett era. Atlanta has been a fine home team this season, but was badly outclassed in a 15-point loss at San Antonio Wednesday night + this will be their lone home game in a five-game, eight day stretch, so there could very well be travel issues. Take Boston.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 1-29-10

Dwayne Bryant

OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER -1.5

Love the way this game sets up. This is a rematch of a game played in Denver last month, in which the Nuggets were 9-point home winners. It appears Carmelo Anthony will be back tonight after missing Wednesday's game at Houston with a sprained ankle. That alone will have the public lining up to play the Nuggets. If only it were that easy.

This is the second game of a short three-game road trip for Denver. They won at Houston on Wednesday without 'Melo, and have a date in San Antonio on Sunday. The Nuggets have won five straight and nine of 10 in this series, and they've been favored in every one of them. They've also won eight straight games heading into this one. So why are they the dogs tonight?

The Thunder have dropped three straight, but the first two were on the road at Memphis & Cleveland, and their last game was their first game back at home after a four-game road trip and they ran into a Chicago buzz saw. That first home game after a road trip is always a tough spot for the hosts, but I expect the Thunder to bring the intensity tonight; Not just because it's a revenge game, but also because it's not too hard to get jacked up (that's for you, jackedup339) to face a division rival that just so happens to be leading the division. The Thunder only shot 37% from the floor against the Bulls, and I expect a much better effort tonight.

From a trend perspective: The Nuggets are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 road games, and 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Nuggets are also 0-6 ATS in the last 6 meetings. The Thunder are 7-2 ATS in the next game after a home loss this season, and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a double-digit loss at home.

Bottom line: We have a revenge-minded home team playing against their division leader, and coming off a bad home loss. We have a road team that has won eight straight, but only two were on the road and one of those two was against an injury-riddled team (GS). And this road team is mediocre at best away from home. I know the Thunder and their crowd will be fired up tonight and I'm sure they'll give it everything they've got. Lay the small number with Oklahoma City.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 1-29-10

Ron Raymond

FLORIDA PANTHERS +220

Great value on the Panthers and they’ve won their last 2 games. Caps going with Neuvirth tonight and the Panthers GAA average L10 games 1.60! When ANY NHL Team Played as Home team as a Favorite - Total is 6.0 - Last 5 years - With 1 day off - Coming off a Home win as a Favorite - 3 games in 4 nights; the Home Fave (WAS) is 8-15 SU in this spot L5Y. Take Florida.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 1-29-10

Spartan

CHICAGO BULLS +4.5

Frankly when the Bulls embarked on this 7 game road trip I felt it may very well bury them, particularly after they got knocked off the first pair of games. Instead they venture into New Orleans tonight looking to capture their fifth straight victory. I can tell you right now it's primarily due to the emergence of Derrick Rose, make no mistake about it, this is his team now. I am certain tonight we will see Rose and Chris Paul duel it out. Despite the Hornets impressive home record they are only a .500 club against the number at home. This Bulls team is playing with confidence now and the marathon season's of the NBA see constant ebbs and flows in momentum and right now we have a Chicago team on a very solid run. The Bulls have handled this Hornets team the last three meetings and my bet is that is they will be right in this thing tonight to the final buzzer. My rabid dog, Double Star release for tonight is the Chicago Bulls catching the 4.5 points guys!

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 1-29-10

GoodFella

OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER -1.5

This is the 2nd meeting between these clubs this season--as Denver won AT Denver (102-93) as 10 pt favs on Dec. 14th. Denver has won 5 straight games vs the Thunder dating back to last season--but they are (0-5 ATS) in those 5 Wins--including narrow 1 pt & 2 pt wins AT Oklahoma City last season. Denver has won 8 straight ballgames coming into tonight & they are coming off a (97-92) win AT Houston as 2.5 pt dogs on Wednesday--so clearly they will bet getting PLENTY of support from bettors tonight-especially as a DOG. Oklahoma City is coming off a (96-86) HOME loss to the Bulls on Wednesday & they have lost 3 straight games coming into tonight. That HOME game vs the Bulls was a tough spot for the Thunder--as it was their 1st game back at HOME--off a 4 game week long East Coast roadie. So I see GREAT VALUE with the THUNDER at HOME here in this spot--as I think we are getting a very short line due to the Nuggets 8 game winning streak & coupled with the Thunder dropping their L/3 ballgames. Denver is just (1-5-2 ATS L/8) games following a ATS win--and they are just (2-7-1 ATS L/10) ROAD games & the Nuggets do play AT San Antonio on Sunday--in a game that is being televied by ABC--so we have a little look-ahead spot here for Denver too. Oklahoma City is (4-0 ATS L/4) games following a double digit loss at HOME. Bottom line for me here--I really look for the Thunder to get back on track tonight- in this spot & I love that the public is all over the Nuggets in this spot. Take Oklahoma City.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 1-29-10

Rocketman

MIAMI HEAT -1

Miami is now 23-22 overall this year while Detroit is only 15-29 on the season. Detroit is 10-24 ATS last 3 years and 4-12 ATS this year after 3 or more consecutive losses. Miami is 6-2 ATS overall vs Detroit the past 3 years including 4-0 ATS at Detroit last 3 years. Heat are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a losing SU record. Heat are 30-11-1 ATS in their last 42 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Pistons are 21-47 ATS in their last 68 games following a SU loss. Pistons are 16-40 ATS in their last 56 games following a ATS loss. Pistons are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games playing on 1 days rest. Heat are 15-5-1 ATS in the last 21 meetings. We'll play Miami for 3 units tonight! Thanks and good luck, Rocky.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 1-29-10

Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons

Lakers/76ers UNDER 202.5

For a number of different reasons I believe we're getting excellent value on "under" in this situation:

The Lakers try for a third consecutive victory when they visit Kobe Bryant’s home town looking to hand the Philadelphia 76ers their third straight loss Friday night.

LA is coming off a high-scoring victory in Indiana on Wednesday, a 118-96 rout.

After falling 106-105 at Toronto on Sunday, the Western Conference-leading Lakers are looking for a third straight victory over a team with a losing record.

Andrew Bynum scored a season-high 27 points and grabbed 12 rebounds while Pau Gasol added 21 with 13 rebounds Wednesday for the Lakers, who are averaging 113.3 points on 49.4 shooting since making 38.6 % of their shots in a 93-87 loss to Cleveland to open the trip.

However, keep in mind that this is actually a spot that LA has seen the total go "under" the number on numerous occasions this season; in 11 of 19 games after a win by 10 points or more.

On the other side of the court: Philadelphia (15-30) looks to bounce back from a 91-88 loss at Milwaukee on Wednesday. Elton Brand had a season-high 26 points with 10 rebounds, but missed a short layup and a 17-foot fadeaway in the final seconds.

Andre Iguodala, who’s averaged 22.0 points in his last five games against the Lakers, was held to nine on 4-of-11 shooting versus the Bucks, while Allen Iverson went 3 of 10 from the field and finished with six points.

With its recent, and season long struggles, it comes as no surprise to learn then that Philadelphia has seen the total go "under" the posted number in five of its last five overall and in five of its last five at home.

Bottom line: I expect this long Eastern Conference road swing to finally catch up to the Lakers today and expect the 76'ers to continue on the offensive side of the court; a situational *10* play on the UNDER here!

*10* UNDER.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 1-29-10

ER ADDED

1/29/10 NBA Utah Under 203 -110 (822)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 1-29-10

Players NHL *8* Total Friday OVER in New Jersey on Jan 29th
Scott Rickenbach’s NHL 8* (Regular Play) OVER the total in New Jersey vs Toronto @ 7:05 ET – RATING SYSTEM: Plays range from 6* up to 10*. The 6*, 7*, and 8* picks are the normal, daily play ratings. The 9* and 10* picks are the higher-rated plays and are Top Plays! A 10* Top Play, of course, is a level above a 9* Top Play!

Big storms rolled through Texas this AM and we lost power here late this AM. Fortunately all research had been completed and final decisions on picks and ratings had been made. However, this delayed the ability to post the picks as timely as we are use to. It also makes typing up the write-ups very difficult as the analysis is being typed up on a blackberry phone! Please understand that write-ups are being kept shorter than usual today as a result. This is so the picks and analysis can be posted as quickly as possible once power is restored! Thanks for understanding and best of luck always - Scott Rickenbach

One of the things we like about this play is the line movement. This one want went from 5.5o20 to 5.5u20 and that means that we go from having to lay 20 cents juice on the over to being able to play this over juice free. That’s a great value and it’s one we won’t pass up on because we do not believe the odds maker was mistaken when he set this line. Yes, New Jersey is known as more of a low-scoring defensive-minded team but, keep in mind, the Devils are playing a Maple Leafs team that likes to open things up offensively and doesn’t mind taking some risk even if it means potential for trouble in their own end. Note that five of Toronto’s last eight games have totaled at least six goals. Also, the Maple Leafs have allowed an average of nearly 4 goals per game in their last six games. Additionally, Toronto is 24-16 to the over the last three seasons when they are coming off of a non-conference game. Their most recent game was versus Los Angeles on Tuesday. That game totaled eight goals. New Jersey comes into this game fired up about getting their offense back on track. The Devils have been held to just two goals or less in 9 of their last 11 games. Facing the porous defense of Toronto and having fired 40 shots on goal (but scoring just once) at Buffalo on Wednesday has this Devils team fired up for a big effort against the struggling Maple Leafs. Toronto’s Jonas Gustavsson has a 2.98 GAA in this, his rookie season. Normal #1 Vesa Toskala has allowed ten goals in his last two starts. The Leafs just aren’t strong between the pipes right now and, even though the Devils would appear to be solid, be wary of the fact that Martin Brodeur has compiled a 3.48 GAA and lost two of his last three starts against Toronto. Play OVER the total in New Jersey as an *8* Regular Play selection.




Players NBA *10* Friday MEMPHIS on Jan 29th
Scott Rickenbach’s NBA 10* (TOP PLAY) Memphis Grizzlies (+) @ San Antonio @ 8:35 ET – RATING SYSTEM: Plays range from 6* up to 10*. The 6*, 7*, and 8* picks are the normal, daily play ratings. The 9* and 10* picks are the higher-rated plays and are Top Plays! A 10* Top Play, of course, is a level above a 9* Top Play!

Big storms rolled through Texas this AM and we lost power here late this AM. Fortunately all research had been completed and final decisions on picks and ratings had been made. However, this delayed the ability to post the picks as timely as we are use to. It also makes typing up the write-ups very difficult as the analysis is being typed up on a blackberry phone! Please understand that write-ups are being kept shorter than usual today as a result. This is so the picks and analysis can be posted as quickly as possible once power is restored! Thanks for understanding and best of luck always - Scott Rickenbach

We are getting line value here as a result of the Grizzlies subpar road record on the season. What is being overlooked here is that this Grizzlies team is playing it's best basketball of the season and are also much more of a formidable road team than they had been. Their confidence has grown with each victory and that includes their recent win over the Spurs in Memphis. While the final score shows only a six point margin, note that the Grizzlies didn't even get a field goal it the final five and a half minutes of the game. The Spurs will also be without a key catalyst, Tony Parker (sprained ankle), as he is expected to miss tonight's game. This makes it even more likely that the Grizzlies guard combo of OJ Mayo and Mike Conley lead the way in this one! Plus, up front, Zach Randolph had a huge game against the Spurs two weeks ago and he will once again be a handful for the Spurs to deal with. San Antonio is simply not the team it once was. Yes, they have enjoyed a lot of success against weaker foes this season but they truly have struggled when facing better competition and the Grizzlies have certainly vaulted up into that category. Though the Spurs beat Atlanta Wednesday, note that the Hawks were off of a big win at Houston plus had a big game with Boston on deck for tonight. It was a true "sandwich spot" for the Hawks and S.A. took advantage. Tonight, the Grizzlies come in well-rested and take advantage of a short-handed San Antonio team. Play Memphis plus the points as a *10* Top Play selection

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 1-29-10

ASA's 3-Star play on: UNDER Grizzlies vs. Spurs - Jan 29


ASA's 3-Star play on: #817/818 Under 200 Memphis Grizzlies vs. San Antonio Spurs - 7:30 pm CST
On Wednesday, San Antonio lost explosive point guard Tony Parker with a sprained ankle in the 3rd quarter of their game against Atlanta. That will cause San Antonio to play a much slower pace due to the inexperience at point guard and the fact that they will have a shorter bench. San Antonio is hitting an offensive lull lately, averaging just 94.8 ppg in their last 7 games despite averaging 101 ppg for the season. The Grizzlies, who are normally known for their high-powered offense; are allowing just 97.8 ppg in their last 10 games (103.4 ppg allowed for the season). Go with the ‘under’ tonight.

These two faced each other on January 16th in Memphis, with the Grizzlies getting the six point victory. Both defenses dominated and the total reached just 178 points (O/U set at 200.5). San Antonio shot just 41.4% and Memphis shot 43.4%. The Grizzlies ‘under’ is 20-9 in their last 29 vs. a winning team. The Spurs ‘under’ is 4-1 in their last 5 vs. team with a winning record and 5-2 in Spurs last 7 vs. NBA Southwest. In the last 30 meetings between these two, the game has finished ‘under’ 21 times (10 out of 14 matchups in San Antonio have finished ‘under’). In the last 10 match-ups, the average total is just 189.7 ppg (just three of the 10 finished more than 200 points).





4-Star play on: Hornets (-) over Bulls - Jan 29


ASA's 4-Star play on: #816 New Orleans (-4.5) over Chicago Bulls - 7:00 pm CST
We played against the Bulls the other night and lost but that won't deter us from going against them again tonight. Chicago has won four straight road games as an underdog which is a very rare feat. Winning five in a row is HIGHLY unlikely! You see it's been 9 years in the NBA since a team has won 5 straight road games as a dog! Against the Thunder on Wednesday the Bulls played OK and notched a 10-point win. But it wasn't really a case of Chicago playing great, but more that the Thunder played poorly. OKC shot just 36.9% on the game which well below their season average of 45.2%.

The Hornets got off to disappointing start to the season with a 3-8 start but have since gone 22-12 SU. The 'Bugs' have won 14 of their last 16 at home and 8 of their last nine in New Orleans. The home team is 6-2-1 in the series and New Orleans is playing with revenge as they lost in Chicago earlier this season by 11. Take the home team here in a BLOWOUT!

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 1-29-10

Malinsky

4* #803 L.A. LAKERS/PHILADELPHIA Under

There are two current patterns clashing here – the Lakers have played four straight Over’s on this long road trip, while the last nine Philadelphia games have played Under in regulation. We believe the markets have erred in assigning the heaviest amount of weight to the former, and that means outstanding value to get involved here.Are those recent Laker Over’s all that pertinent in this matchup? Those last four outings were at Indiana, Washington, Toronto and New York, all defensive bottom feeders, especially around the basket. Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum shot a collective 67-111 (60.4 percent) against those smaller front lines. But now things change against Samuel Dalembert and Elton Brand up front, and that means not only a lower level of offensive efficiency, but also a slower pace as they have to work harder to find open looks.It is the presence of Brand and Dalembert playing together that has keyed the Philadelphia run, leading to both better defense and a slower game pace (Philly has dropped all the way to 24th on our Pace charts for the full season). And note just how far off the oddsmakers have been – in that current 9-0 run to the Under in regulation play six of the games finished at least 11.5 points below the projected Total, and in a 7-0 run to the Under in the last seven games played by Brand on this court that games finished a collective 82 points below the projections. Without a true point guard the 76ers will continue to struggle to score against quality opponents (they have not shot 50 percent in a game since facing the lowly Pistons back on January 9th), and even through what has been a loose cycle in those recent road games the Lakers are #3 in our best defensive ratings.

4* #817 MEMPHIS over SAN ANTONIO

Can it really be as simple as to say that the Grizzlies are flat-out better than the Spurs right now, and that this line is far too high. Yes it can.For Memphis to be 25-19 at this point with so many new faces blending together is quite an achievement, but that is what can happen when you have a quality player at every position on the court. But the full-season record lags behind where the Grizzlies really are right now – in a current 15-4 SU run only one of the defeats came by more than five points, and in a current 8-2 both of the losses came by a single basket. And eight of those 15 victories came against teams that currently sport winning records. They are the epitome of a “tough out” right now, with Zach Randolph absolutely earning that All Star spot; Michael Conley, O. J. Mayo and Rudy Gay learning to mesh well on the perimeter; and with the under-rated Marc Gasol on a particularly major run right now, scoring 59 points, grabbing 33 rebounds, and having seven assists, eight steals and five blocked shots in the last three games. They bring both confidence and physical freshness to this setting, playing for only the third time in the last seven days, and they are 7-1 ATS the last eight times that they have been underdogs.San Antonio brings no such form. They have already lost four home games outright in the month of January, and while the 25-19 does not show just how good Memphis has been, the 26-18 of the Spurs is a different story – they have faced the #29 schedule so far, with 27 of those games coming at home, and needed to get much more breathing room than this before things get tougher. Now they also have to adjust to life with Tony Parker again, with only a lone practice yesterday for Gregg Popovich to do his tweaking. They have a difficult time just getting the “W” here, and the market expectations are far too high for this matchup
__________________

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 1-29-10

KELSO

3 units Harvard -8.5
5 units Valpo +7.5
5 units Grizzlies +5
10 units Hawks -4
25 units Bobcats -1.5