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Re: 2-2-10
JEFF BENTON
Tuesday's Action
25 DIME: AIR FORCE (plus the points)
I’m not going to claim that Air Force is a top-notch basketball team, because it isn’t. But at least the Falcons have gotten progressively better with each passing conference game. Since a nine-point loss to TCU to start the Mountain West season, Air Force has lost by 22 points (at Colorado State), 18 points (vs. BYU), 23 (vs. New Mexico), 17 (at Utah) and 10 (at UNLV) before breaking through with Saturday’s 70-63 over Wyoming. And after failing to cover in four straight games, the Falcons have now cashed in back-to-back contests, including as a whopping 18½-point underdog at UNLV.
Now the Falcons are catching a similar price at San Diego State, which is just 4-3 SU and 3-4 ATS in Mountain West action. In their three conference road games, the Aztecs have defeated New Mexico (74-64) and TCU (67-62) and lost to BYU (71-69). Do you see a blowout win there? In fact, San Diego State’s biggest conference win to date was Saturday’s 64-52 triumph at Colorado State, and that margin was a bit misleading because the Aztecs extended a single-digit advantage late because of foul shots. In fact, SDSU took 33 free throws in that game … and yet made just 18 (54.5 percent).
Which brings me to my next point: The Aztecs are one of the worst free-throw shooting teams in the nation, ranking 344th out of 347 Division I teams by making just 59.2 percent of their foul shots. And at home, that free-throw percentage actually drops to 54.3 percent! How can a team that shoots THAT poorly from the charity strip cover a 17-point-plus spread? Especially in what is certain to be a defensive game (Air Force yields just 62.5 ppg, while SDSU gives up just 63.5 ppg)? And especially when Air Force can actually make free throws (the Falcons shoot 66.1 percent from the charity stripe overall and 66.3 percent on the road)?
Again, guys, make no mistake that San Diego State is the more talented team – that’s not up for debate. But the Aztecs haven’t pummeled a single league opponent yet. In fact, they struggled against two lower-level Mountain West teams, blowing a 14-point halftime lead in losing 85-83 at Wyoming as a six-point road favorite and rallying from a nine-point halftime deficit to barely upend TCU 67-62, falling well short as a 13-point home chalk.
One final note: Air Force has been a big moneymaker lately, cashing in 12 of its last 17 games overall, 10 of its last 12 on the road (all as an underdog), eight of nine when catching 13 points or more and 11 of its last 12 after a SU victory. Meanwhile, San Diego State has failed to cover in five of its last six games when laying 13 points or more. Throw in the fact this is going to be a low-scoring contest (the last eight meetings have stayed under the total – with the last seven featuring 107 points or less – and as noted above, both teams play great defense), and this underdog price becomes even more enticing. Take the points, and look for San Diego State to win this game in the 8-12 point range.
JEFF BENTON
Tuesday's Action
25 DIME: AIR FORCE (plus the points)
I’m not going to claim that Air Force is a top-notch basketball team, because it isn’t. But at least the Falcons have gotten progressively better with each passing conference game. Since a nine-point loss to TCU to start the Mountain West season, Air Force has lost by 22 points (at Colorado State), 18 points (vs. BYU), 23 (vs. New Mexico), 17 (at Utah) and 10 (at UNLV) before breaking through with Saturday’s 70-63 over Wyoming. And after failing to cover in four straight games, the Falcons have now cashed in back-to-back contests, including as a whopping 18½-point underdog at UNLV.
Now the Falcons are catching a similar price at San Diego State, which is just 4-3 SU and 3-4 ATS in Mountain West action. In their three conference road games, the Aztecs have defeated New Mexico (74-64) and TCU (67-62) and lost to BYU (71-69). Do you see a blowout win there? In fact, San Diego State’s biggest conference win to date was Saturday’s 64-52 triumph at Colorado State, and that margin was a bit misleading because the Aztecs extended a single-digit advantage late because of foul shots. In fact, SDSU took 33 free throws in that game … and yet made just 18 (54.5 percent).
Which brings me to my next point: The Aztecs are one of the worst free-throw shooting teams in the nation, ranking 344th out of 347 Division I teams by making just 59.2 percent of their foul shots. And at home, that free-throw percentage actually drops to 54.3 percent! How can a team that shoots THAT poorly from the charity strip cover a 17-point-plus spread? Especially in what is certain to be a defensive game (Air Force yields just 62.5 ppg, while SDSU gives up just 63.5 ppg)? And especially when Air Force can actually make free throws (the Falcons shoot 66.1 percent from the charity stripe overall and 66.3 percent on the road)?
Again, guys, make no mistake that San Diego State is the more talented team – that’s not up for debate. But the Aztecs haven’t pummeled a single league opponent yet. In fact, they struggled against two lower-level Mountain West teams, blowing a 14-point halftime lead in losing 85-83 at Wyoming as a six-point road favorite and rallying from a nine-point halftime deficit to barely upend TCU 67-62, falling well short as a 13-point home chalk.
One final note: Air Force has been a big moneymaker lately, cashing in 12 of its last 17 games overall, 10 of its last 12 on the road (all as an underdog), eight of nine when catching 13 points or more and 11 of its last 12 after a SU victory. Meanwhile, San Diego State has failed to cover in five of its last six games when laying 13 points or more. Throw in the fact this is going to be a low-scoring contest (the last eight meetings have stayed under the total – with the last seven featuring 107 points or less – and as noted above, both teams play great defense), and this underdog price becomes even more enticing. Take the points, and look for San Diego State to win this game in the 8-12 point range.
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