2-4-10

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 2-4-10

Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons

San Jose -160

For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this game is on the Sharks:

The Western Conference leaders look for a seventh consecutive road victory when they open the second of three six-game trips Thursday night against the Blues.

San Jose (36-11-9) has the fewest road losses in the NHL with a 17-6-2 record away from home, and it hasn’t lost outside of HP Pavilion since falling 2-1 at Phoenix on Dec. 12. San Jose went 4-2-0 on a six-game swing from Oct. 15-25, and still has another trip of the same length March 14-23.

They are outscoring opponents 20-9 during their six-game winning streak. San Jose has also won eight of 10 at St. Louis, including a 3-1 victory Nov. 14. The Sharks are 2-0-1 this season against the Blues, who are 9-14-5 at home.

San Jose allowed four unanswered goals in a 4-2 loss to Detroit on Tuesday to conclude a 3-1-1 homestand.

Evgeni Nabokov made 33 saves against Detroit, but he allowed four goals for the second time in three starts. Nabokov, however, has a 1.86 goals-against average during his personal eight-game road winning streak and is 5-2-1 with a 2.60 GAA at St. Louis.

On the other side of the ice: St. Louis (25-22-9) returns home to face the top team in the West after a 3-2 win Wednesday at Chicago - the second-best club in the conference. The Blues are 8-5-3 since Davis Payne replaced the fired Andy Murray as coach on Jan. 2.

St. Louis's goaltenders have been hot, but I believe the emotional and hard fought victory less then 24 hours previous will be the Blues biggest enemy tonight as this is definitely a "letdown" spot.

Keep in mind though that the Blues actually struggle at the Scottrade Center as well; 4-11 their last 15 in front of the home town crowd.

Bottom line: No need to overanalyze this one; San Jose is well rested and looking to start off its long road trip with a concerted effort and catch a Blues team that struggles to get victories in front of the home town crowd and which is coming off a big road victory the night before; expect SAN JOSE to take advantage of this tired team and improve to a perfect 8-0 (+8 units) after a loss by 2 goals or more in its previous contest and for St. Louis to drop too 15-15 (-1.2 units) revenging a loss vs. an opponent!

8* SHARKS

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 2-4-10

malinsky

4* #509 DETROIT over BUTLER

Detroit is the absolute classic definition of a ?Tough Out?, a team
that does not bring the kind of sex appeal that the markets
acknowledge in their ratings, but one that plays hard and with grit
that means a difficult time for the opposition to get any kind of
margin. That is what happens when you have size, athleticism, depth
and experience. And it has all played out on the court the way that
it should ? in going 7-4 in Horizon League play the four defeats were
by a combined eight points at the end of regulation, and both their
defense and boardwork are the best in the loop, allowing 38.7 percent
shooting, 28.4 on triples, with the opposition -35 in assists to
turnovers, and the Titans are a +6.6 in rebounding.

We can add something else for tonight ? Detroit is hungry. It has
been nearly a month since the Titans suffered a bitter 64-62 overtime
loss to Butler at home, when the Bulldogs had to score last to get it
to the extra period, a game in which they played outstanding defense
and won the battle of the boards 33-24 despite the fact that key
inside cog Eli Holman was limited to just 20 minutes on the court
before fouling out. Now they bring a major level of intensity for the
rematch, and have also had a chance for new faces like Holman and
Chase Simon (averaging 17.2 per game in conference play) to acclimate
even more, making them a flat out better team than in the first
meeting.

As always, Butler brings a lot of polish to the table, but without
much size or depth it forces an extreme level of efficiency to get
this kind of margin against a team that brings Detroit?s components.
The Titans bring the better numbers across the board defensively and
in rebounding, and this pointspread range is rarely available when
that is the case, especially when there is not much tempo to create
opportunities for the favorite to get a margin.



5* #521 FLORIDA over ALABAMA

Alabama is anything but a Superman of a basketball team, but from a
conceptual standpoint we can put the Crimson Tide at that level to
break this one down, because in this case the matchups are all
Kryptonite for Anthony Grant and his team. As one would expect under
Grant, this is a team that plays with passion and defends
tenaciously, and that means the ability to grind down lesser
opponents. But being in the role of the favorite when stepping up in
class, and particularly going against what Florida will throw at them
tonight, is all wrong.

Alabama must have two things happening to be successful ? the Crimson
Tide need to be able to get easy shots off of turnovers, many of
which they will miss anyway; and they need to be able to use their
athleticism to drive the ball to the basket. Those elements go away
here. With solid ball-handlers throughout the lineup the Gators are
one of the toughest teams to press in the SEC, with a terrific count
of only 81 turnovers through seven league games (to go with 103
assists). And given that so much of the Grant pressing schemes came
from what he learned in his 12 years as an assistant under Billy
Donovan, Florida will not run into many surprises.

So what happens when there are no turnovers vs. the presses? The Tide
must find a way to score in their half-court sets, and this is where
it gets really ugly ? they are simply not built to play well against
zone defenses. And that is exactly what the Gators are making a
bigger part of their packages these days, something that Grant will
not have learned from Donovan because many of these looks are new.
There are going to be a lot of possessions in which Alabama goes deep
into the shot clock and still does not find anything, and the less
efficient the Tide are on offense the fewer chances there are to set
up the presses. It all goes hand in hand. That opens the door for the
more polished team to gradually take control of these proceedings,
and a big edge at the free throw line (73.7 percent vs. 65.2 in SEC
play) helps to keep the flow in hand.



6* #536 VALPARAISO over WRIGHT STATE

Reputation vs. Reality? Rarely do we have a clearer case of the
concept than here. Through 11 Horizon League games for each team
there is simply no indication that Wright State is even the better
team, much less one that is favored by this kind of margin on the
road, particularly with tempo being factored, which brings ?Degree of
Dominance? into plat. That means time to step things up with an
underdog that brings a lot of momentum and confidence, and also the
kind of chip on their shoulder that can lead to winning this game
outright.

Here is how they stack up in conference play ? Wright State is 7-4
and Valparaiso 6-5. Wright has been out-scored by four points in
those games, Valparaiso is at +20. Homer Drew?s Crusaders have shot
much better (47.1 percent vs. 41.0 from the field and 41.3 vs. 32.6
beyond the arc) and defended nearly as well (42.3 vs. 41.1, 34.4 vs.
34.0 on triples). And note that this has come with Valparaiso playing
seven of 11 league games on the road, while it has been six of 11 for
Wright at home. How about head-to-head? That is what sets up the
special level of passion for Homer Drew?s team tonight.

The Crusaders led the Raiders 57-48 on the road with 7:09 to play in
the first go-round, and did not score the rest of the way in a
haunting 59-57 defeat. That stings. But it is what can happen to a
young team that started the season with seven new faces on the
roster. They are not so young any more. Having played at North
Carolina, Michigan State, Butler and Purdue by December 9th they have
had a chance to accelerate their development, and that is what has
shown in a solid 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS run on the conference road the
last two weeks. Yet the markets can not catch up, because those road
losses vs. elite programs for a team that was not yet ready for prime
time carry more weight in the power ratings than they should.

Over the course of Horizon conference play Valparaiso has been every
bit as good as Wright State, and the Crusaders still have not played
their best basketball yet. With newcomers Bandon Webb (leads the
league in scoring at 18.6) and Cory Johnson (15.7) having fully
assimilated now they have the two best scorers on the court, and a
one-two punch that brings the confidence to win this game outright.
Their only losses in the past seven games were the previously
mentioned two-point defeat vs. Wright in Dayton, and that 85-82 loss
to Wisconsin-Milwaukee on a three-point at the buzzer. They stay
alive again here vs. a Wright squad that is just 1-6 ATS as a road
favorite this season, lacking the punch to get anything easily, and
with that revenge showdown at Butler in front of the ESPN2 cameras
coming up on Saturday night the Raiders are more than ripe for that
outright upset.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 2-4-10

Jim Hurley Network

Stanford Cardinal

Cincinnati Bearcats

Tennessee Vols

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 2-4-10

Patron

20K Maryland +3.5

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 2-4-10

Seabass
100 Steam Cinc
50 pur, duke, lsu,
LAKings under

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 2-4-10

Atskings


Clayton Rice Picks Page

CBB

3* INDIANA

3* WASHINGTON ST

3* SANTA CLARA

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 2-4-10

Savannah Sports


Professional Plays
Eric Degarde

Todays Selections

NBA Basketball

Pass

NCAA Basketball

2 (**) Purdue -11

2 (**) Portland +8.5

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 2-4-10

ST BERNADINE SPORTS/LILLEFTY

todays ugly system games are:
1* Ball st/bowling green over 112.5(7pm) wow just in the time it took me to write the email to my customers and write this the total has steamed to 114 we still should be fine though as this one should get to 120. - Ball st has picked up the pace the last few games as they have scored 65 or higher in 5 of the last 6 games. Their posessions per game has risen by 10 over that span and that has made all the difference as the oddsmakers have been slow to adjust to this .Sometimes this upswing in tempo can be accounted for by the competiton played, but Ball st hung 71 on Toledo who is a notoriously slow pace team.

2* Gonzaga -8.5 over Portland(11 pm)
1* Samford/Citadel over 107(7pm)
1* arkansas st/Ark- Little rock(8pm)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 2-4-10

charlie

cbb. cleveland st-5 & ucla-4' (500* 2 team parlay must win or nex day is free)

cbb. western michigan-4 (30*)
cbb. georgia tech-12' (20*)
cbb. eastern michigan+4' (20*)
cbb. ball st-2' (10*)
nba. alabama-2 (10* free play)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 2-4-10

Stan Sharp | NBA Sides Thu, 02/04/10 - 10:35 PM

double-dime bet 503 SAN -2.5 (-110) BetUS vs 504 POR
Analysis: Stan is Betting SAN ANTONIO. Stan notes that the SPURS are playing the second of back to back games and is in the beginning of a very long road trip. The Spurs went half speed last night saving themselves for this TV Game. Expect the Spurs to dominate the slumping Trailblazers. San Antonio wins by 7 or more. TAKE SAN ANTONIO as STAN'S WISE GUY GAME OF THE WEEK and make them a DOUBLE DIME PLAY.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 2-4-10

fargo

Date: Thursday, February 04, 2010
$35.00 Guaranteed: After a 2-0 Tuesday Sweep Matt settled for a 1-1 Wednesday split in CBB but he won yet again with his 10* TOP Report on Marshall as he is now an OUTSTANDING 15-5-2 ATS (75%) YTD with his 10* TOP Reports! He is a TREMENDOUS 20-9-1 ATS (69%) L30 in CBB and Thursday presents another MASSIVE 10* TOP opportunity from the Pac 10! Hammer it! The COLOSSAL run keeps going tonight! Guaranteed! 2/4/2010

This is likely going to be a pretty popular publicly backed play however the situation calls for it in this instance. The Pac Ten is a mess right now. It may be considered a good mess by some because of the parity but in my opinion it is loaded with mediocre teams that don’t deserve to be where they currently stand. However, California is not one of those as the Golden Bears are the class of the conference. We knew this coming into the season and a couple more wins this weekend could provide some needed breathing room. California is 6-3 in the conference which is good for a tie with Arizona, a game lead over two teams, a two-game lead over five teams and a three-game lead over last place Oregon St. so it is still currently anyone’s conference. This is where the cream rises to the top however and the Golden Bears will gather some distance here. They could easily be 8-1 in the conference but a brutal one-point loss at home against UCLA in overtime and a four-poin6t loss last time out at Arizona has kept them within reach by the other teams. The loss against the Wildcats was particularly frustrating as California shot just 37.7 percent from the floor, close to 10 percent below its season average and Arizona is not that great on defense. The game was basically lost in the final seconds and I do like the bounce back possibility here on the road where the Golden Bears are 3-4 on the year with the other losses coming at Kansas, New Mexico and Washington who are a combined 39-2 on their home floors. This senior laden team knows the importance of this game. Ever since the infractions were handed down to USC, the Trojans have taken a big step backward and how can you blame them? They found out they are not eligible for the postseason and that includes the Pac Ten Tournament, so playing with a little less inspiration and motivation is clearly understandable. In their first two games after being informed they are ineligible for the postseason, they lost to California and Stanford, rebounded with an historic win over UCLA as it came by 21 points at Pauley Pavilion, but has since lost three of four games which has put them into a logjam of five teams sharing fifth through ninth place. USC has struggled mightily on offense as it has scored 60 points or fewer in 15 of 21 games this season and that is becoming a real issue in conference action. The defense has kept things close but that defense will have another test here with one of the best shooting teams around. USC is 3-1 in its four home games in the Pac Ten but two of those games were prior to when the infractions were handed down. Looking at the matchup shows the Golden Bears with a huge advantage in assist/turnover ratio and that should be the case with a veteran team against a young team. California has a 1.17 ratio which is very solid considering it has played the nations 10th toughest schedule this season. USC meanwhile has a ratio of 0.66 which is tied for 326th in the country and is easily the worst of any team from a major conference. The Golden Bears are usually solid from the free throw line as well and that is the case again this season as they are hitting 74.4 percent, good for 21st in the country while USC is hitting just 65.1 percent, 278th in the nation, and that drops to 62.8 percent over the last five games. Those are two huge edges for California tonight. California also falls into a great situation. Play against underdogs with a winning record on the season of less than .600 that are coming off two or more consecutive losses as a favorite playing team with a winning record. This situation is 46-18 ATS (71.9 percent) since 1997 with the average point differential being +11.8 ppg. 10* (563) California Golden Bears

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 2-4-10

Anthony Redd


15-Dime - Georgia Tech



15-Dime - Florida



15-Dime - North Carolina

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 2-4-10

RAS


Toledo un 129.5

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 2-4-10

Booooj 20 units Detroit cbb
FSG 1000 Portland nba 50 alabama, florida atlantic cbb

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 2-4-10

Teddy June

10* Washington
10* Usc