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Re: 2-6-10
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Re: 2-6-10
Sammy Jankus
Always play the OTHER SIDE of my game writeup.
Memphis at Minnesota
5* MEMPHIS -3
No doubt about it – the most INSANE line I've seen in a long time. Exhibit A: The Timberwolves, who are finally playing like an NBA team, enter off last night's 117-108 road win at Dallas as 10-point dogs. Exhibit B: The Grizzlies got POUNDED at home last night by 18 points in a SU favorite loss to Houston. Exhibit C: Minnesota is actually a home underdog in tonight's matchup! Folks, you don't have to be Steven Hawking to figure out who I like in this game… I'm putting every last penny I can find on the T'Wolves – so your play is on MEMPHIS.Comment
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Re: 2-6-10
malinsky
4* #508 CLEVELAND/NEW YORK Over
Last night we stepped in early to take advantage of a weak line as
the Knicks switched into a different gear with Nate Robinson in the
starting lineup, and the result was an easy Over that came home by 20
points, with each stanza generating at least 50. This is more of the
same. We will see more of Mike D?Antoni?s preferred uptempo tactics,
which he simply could not run with the slumping and worn down Chris
Duhon at PG, and D?Antoni has resigned himself to what things will be
like in the weeks ahead ? the Knicks will have some explosive moments
in the open court, but will also become even weaker defensively.
The best way for them to compete in Cleveland is to run, since the
Cavalier half-court sets are far superior. They have no ability to
even slow down LeBron, nor deal with Shaq or Zydrunas Ilgauskas down
low, so they come out and attack and hope to scramble the game. That
leaves plenty of openings for a rested and well-oiled Cleveland
offensive machine, and note just how effective the Cavaliers have
been on this home stand without Maurice Williams and Delonte West,
averaging 107 points on 49.6 percent shooting. The scoring could have
easily been higher, but in routing the Clippers, Grizzlies and Heat
they were letting up in the latter stages (only 71 points in the
three fourth quarter?s). Now they have no need at all to back off ?
with nothing up until a Tuesday home game vs. the lowly Nets, Mike
Brown is entitled to put on a show in front of a Saturday night
crowd. Note that Brown has become more relaxed in such settings, with
a 3-0 run to the Over as a home favorite of -12 or more in calendar
2010.
4* #516 UTAH over DENVER
Every once in a while a savvy coach will have a ?white flag? game,
and that is what we believe that we have for George Karl here. In
playing for the 5th time in seven days, with this being the fourth
different court in that span, he is dealing with an extremely tired
team, especially with high-profile road affairs against the Spurs and
Lakers in that span, and also being forced into O.T. vs. the Kings on
Monday. Without Carmelo Anthony it is all exacerbated, of course, but
the fact that the Nuggets were able to grab three wins out of this
cycle is also what makes it easier to let this one go. But now the
extreme of the setting get even worse, with last night?s later tipoff
than usual in Los Angeles because of television, and the loss of an
hour in this time zone transition, leaving the Nuggets gasping for
breath. At 34-16, and with Chauncey Billups having played over 160
minutes in the first four games of the cycle, Karl may not mind being
blown out at all.
The key, of course, is that he might not be able to do anything about
it anyway. After getting off to a sluggish start the Jazz have
finally found their way in an explosive 11-1 SU and 9-2-1 ATS surge,
a span in which they have eight victories over teams that currently
sport winning records, five of those eight coming in double figures.
And now the Jazz come in rested, ready, and with a chip on their
shoulder after falling 119-112 in Denver back on January 17th,
naturally the only loss in this span. Utah has been home since
January 27th, coasting past the Kings, Mavericks and Trail Blazers by
a combined 32 points in the only three games since then, and they
have been off since Wednesday to put a game plan together for this
one. Jerry Sloan will have absolutely no sympathy for the Denver
issues here, using that superior depth to try to run the Nuggets off
the court, and our money says that he will be successful in doing
just that.
Those Denver road wins against the Lakers and Spurs this week do not
carry all that much weight in our processes ? they shot an almost
impossible 24-34 from 3-point range in those games, and are not going
to have anywhere near that level of success tonight. All those
results do is bring a much shorter line than we should be looking at,
in a game that the Jazz easily extend the final margin into double
figures.
4* #521 SAN ANTONIO/L.A. CLIPPERS Over
Ordinarily when an assistant is elevated to a head coaching spot we
do not see major changes, but that is not going to be the case with
the Clippers as Kim Hughes takes over. It is not just that he wants
to loosen things up and play at a different pace than Mike Dunleavy,
it is that the players want it also. And with the markets making some
mistakes in their read of this matchup we can get into play right
from the opening tipoff.
First we have to note that the Clippers have weapons. They scored
over 100 points in every January home game, including topping the
century mark vs. the Lakers and Cavaliers, with the ability to score
both inside and out. Their struggles on that long and arduous road
trip had much to do with the scheduling nature of that grind, and
Chris Kaman missing so much time. Now they get a badly needed couple
of days off to physically recoup from that trip, and also adjust to
the Hughes systems. And they are looking forward to it. First from
the new coach - "We need to shorten the intelligence factor and
make things simpler. I'm really trying to get our energy back. And
trying to make this fun." Then floor leader Baron Davis -
"Game to game the element of fun and excitement was few and far
between. For the talent that we have and the type of players that we
have, we have to play at a very high level. And it has to be fun to
keep everybody engaged." And finally Kaman - "The guys really
like his (Hughes) style. It's just a different face and a different
voice and a different attitude than Coach Dunleavy. There's going to
be a lot of things that are done differently."
We believe that we see it happen immediately, largely because the
Spurs allow for such a flow. We have been closely watching to see if
their defensive rotations could get to the usual Gregg Popovich
levels, but the bottom line is that it may not happen with this
group. They just had a six-game home stand with no back-to-backs
involved, which was the ideal setting to build the chemistry, and it
simply did not happen. If anything they have become weaker on that
end of the court, allowing four straight opponents, and five of the
last six, to shoot over 50 percent. That includes what had been a
slumping Houston team; a tired Chicago team near the end of a long
road trip; Denver playing without Carmelo Anthony; a brutally
struggling Sacramento squad without Jason Thompson; and Portland
without Brandon Roy. That is an ouch. San Antonio will continue to
run great sets (#7 on our best offensive ratings), and we might even
see more of Tony Parker and George Hill playing together, creating an
even smoother flow with the ball, as Popovich comes to the
realization that to win this season means out-gunning the opposition,
rather than shutting them down.
6* #557 KANSAS STATE over IOWA STATE
We have been able to put three Kansas State tickets in our pockets
over the last three weeks, including each of the last two games, and
not only does that ride continue, but we can even accelerate the pace
here ? Frank Martin?s physical Wildcats are only going to get better
down the stretch because of their tenacity and depth, and this is a
soft opponent that they can push around.
As we have noted often, no team in the nation plays harder for the
full 40 minutes than the Wildcats, and in going 18-4 against one of
the most difficult schedules in the land (#4 Sagarin and #6 Pomeroy),
they are developing to a special level of toughness and intensity.
That showed in Tuesday?s 76-57 road domination of Nebraska ? instead
of having a major letdown off of that draining O.T. loss to Kansas
last weekend, they maintained their intensity level and played one of
their best games of the season. Now they have had three full days off
since that win, and they do not play again until a home game vs.
Colorado next Saturday, so they come in fresh, focused and with no
reason to be holding anything back. And Martin brings a 5-0 SU and
3-1-1 ATS tally vs. Greg McDermott into play (the only pointspread
failure was by a half point), with even better matchups than through
the first five encounters.
While Kansas State can extend that physical play the entire game
because of outstanding depth (nine players go at least 10 minutes per
game, and in Big 12 play six are going at least 20), which is part of
why the Wildcats lead the conference in offensive rebounding, Iowa
State is simply soft. Having lost Lucca Staiger, Charles Boozer and
Jamie Vanderbeken the Cyclones are down to basically a six-man
rotation, and it is showing ? since Staiger left they have gone 1-4
SU and 0-4-1 ATS, allowing an average of 79.4 points per game in that
span. But our key today is that it is even worse than that.
The only win from the diminished Iowa State roster came by a single
point at home vs. Colorado, and the Cyclones do not likely get that
one if key Buffalo cog Alec Burks had not been injured two minutes
into the game. They lost at Oklahoma when the Sooners were without
Willie Warren and Tony Crocker. Earlier this week they caught Baylor
in a perfect setting, right after the Bears had upset Texas on the
road, yet were whipped by 21, and there were awful signs galore in
the second half, when Baylor had more offensive rebounds than I.S.U.
had defensive caroms. The Bears also got seven dunks after
intermission alone. Even when Kansas came here two weeks ago the
Jayhawks were in a look-ahead mode to facing Missouri in a nationally
televised Monday Night showdown, yet they rolled the Cyclones 84-61.
Now McDermott?s team has to take the ?A? game from an opponent they
do not match up well against at all.
Want to do a simple comparison? So far in Big 12 play there have been
four examples in which these two have played the same opponents on
the same court. At Baylor, Kansas State wins by +23. At Nebraska
Kansas State wins by +16. Home vs. Kansas it is Kansas State by +23
in regulation. Home vs. Texas it is Kansas State by +16. That is an
average advantage of +19.5 per game, and it is real, with the gap
between these teams only getting wider as the schedule progresses.
6* #575 CALIFORNIA over U.C.L.A.
This can only be billed as a Pac 10 showdown, which is how it has to
be perceived when the teams are among a group tied for first place in
the conference. But there is a big gap between them in terms of
experience, talent and the matchups for this encounter, and with some
major basketball pendulums also in play what is being priced as a
close game instead turns into a rout.
So how did we get to this point? Of Cal?s four Pac 10 losses three
were absolutely point black, including a big lead getting away in a
76-75 home loss in O.T. to these Bruins. That result that defied the
true matchup, with U.C.L.A. going 9-20 from 3-point range, vs. only
2-18 from the Bears, who are much better from long range. Meanwhile
Ben Howland?s team has escaped with a series of point blank wins,
with four of the conference victories by four points or less. But
what has made them tick of late ? his switch to an almost full-time
deployment of a zone defense ? turns around today.
Three games back we cashed an easy 6* ticket with Cal at Arizona
State, noting how the Bears were among the most difficult teams to
zone in the nation. The Patrick Christopher/Jerome Randle back-court
will end up among the all-time Division I leaders in combined career
starts for any duo, and not only are they accurate from 3-point
range, but Randle in particular can extend about as far as anyone in
the nation. He and Theo Robertson have each knocked down better than
40 percent of their triples in their careers, and Randle,
Christopher and Robertson have made a combined 475 triples while
wearing Bear uniforms. You are not going to beat this team with a
zone, although Howland has gotten away with it the past couple of
weeks because the Pac 10 is not loaded with perimeter shooters this
season. And with Jorge Gutierrez now at full health (27 solid minutes
without his knee brace on Thursday night), it is even easier for Cal
to exploit a zone, with Randle and Christopher able to move to the
wings for shots instead of having to direct traffic on each
possession.
U.C.L.A. has been surviving on the guile of the coach and a scrappy
roster that plays hard, but lacks typical Westwood talent. A slow
start took some of the pressure off of this group, but now it is
right back on again, and we would not be surprised if they were
exploited badly, with Cal comfortably controlling the floor play, and
that major edge in free throw shooting (74.2 percent vs. 62.3)
helping to gradually break this one open.
4* #625 SOUTHERN MISS over HOUSTON
This pointspread does not reflect the current state of affairs
between these teams in Conference USA at all ? Houston is just a half
game ahead of Southern Miss in the standings (4-4 vs. 3-4), and the
recent trending is even more significant, with the Cougars just 1-3
in their last four starts, while it has been three straight wins for
Larry Eustachy?s Golden Eagles. But the markets still have a bias
towards ?pretty? rather than ?gritty?, and that is what brings this
extreme value.
What Houston does best jumps out ? Aubrey Coleman leads the nation in
scoring, and when the Cougars get out into the open floor they bring
a lot of style. But there simply is not much substance. As a team
they are shooting just 40.7 percent from the field, while allowing an
alarming 47.5, and they are being out-rebounded by -8.7 per game.
Outside of Coleman only Kelvin Lewis is averaging in double figures,
and the lack of depth is already taking a toll in the recent slide.
Three times in the last four games they have been out-rebounded in
double figures, and two of those opponents shot better than 50
percent. There is no way to correct those flaws, and with Coleman,
Lewis and Maurice McNeil all playing the full 40 minutes in
Wednesday?s loss at U.T.E.P., after that trio had gone 113 of a
possible 120 vs. Marshall last Saturday, they are only going to wear
down even more as the schedule progresses.
There are no such issues for Southern Miss, with seven different
players averaging at least 20 floor minutes in league play, and
because of their depth and tenacity the Golden Eagles are becoming
the epitome of a ?Tough Out?. They have held six straight CUSA
opponents under 60 points, and in their last three league road
outings that defense has helped them to cover the spread by a
combined 33 points. They can use their fresher legs and deeper
rotation to force the kind of grinding pace that Houston does not
play well at, and it has them alive to the final possessions to win
the whole game outright, with the points being offered a comfortable
cushion.
4* #682 NEW MEXICO STATE over SAN JOSE STATE
In a game that is going to be played at a brisk pace, energy and
focus make a big difference over the course of 40 minutes. We saw
that happen in the first go-round between these teams, when San Jose
State won 93-84, a defeat that was largely due to the energy
pendulums being stretched to an extreme. But now they go the other
way, and they do it in a fashion that turns this one into a blowout.
Do you think that the host Aggies will be focused here? That earlier
road defeat keeps them from having sole possession of first place in
the W.A.C., and it is a game that they walked away knowing they were
the better team. They had nine fewer turnovers and two more rebounds
in that contest, controlling the floor game, and they led by nine at
halftime. But they were caught in what might be the toughest physical
grinder of any conference trip, playing the Spartans on the way back
from a win at Hawaii, with only one day off in between. It took a
toll, and they simply could not make their shots, going just 28-71
from the field, while S.J.S. hit 31-55 vs. those tired defensive
legs, including 12-20 triples. It was a fluky result, but it did not
throw the Aggies off track ? they responded in their next game by
whipping Louisiana Tech on the road by 14 points. Not only was it
their best outing of the season, but it was the only game they have
played since the earlier loss to the Spartans. It means that they
have had a full week on campus to practice for this revenge match,
and about as fresh of legs as any team in the nation will have for
this time on the calendar.
San Jose State is not accustomed to being the hunted, with a short
rotation and weak defense that are easy to exploit, and this time the
Spartans are the ones with fatigue as an issue, having to travel from
Thursday?s loss vs. Louisiana Tech in Ruston to Las Cruces. That is
an awkward itinerary, and it does not help that Mac Peterson and
Justin Graham each played 38 minutes, and Adrian Oliver 37, on
Thursday. Now a defense that is nothing special at the best of times
(they allowed 50 percent shooting combined in their last two losses
on the road, and earlier in W.A.C. road play both Nevada and Fresno
State shot at least 50 percent) can be fully turned inside out. The
Spartans are the rare team that does not take the ball away or defend
shooters well, generating only 97 turnovers in nine conference games.
Contrast this with that N.M.S. back-court of Jahmar Young (21.2 ppg)
and Jonathan Gibson (18.8), who are not only explosive scorers, but
also value the ball ? as a team that Aggies only have 77 TO?s in
eight league games, and four of the five starters post a positive
assist-to-turnover ratio.
Go back to the first encounter and you see what this matchup can
bring ? New Mexico State had 71 field goal attempts, 24 FT attempts,
and just six turnovers. And that was when playing very tired, and
with little preparation time. Now the Aggies bring the energy and the
focus to score at will here, and the Spartans will have a difficult
time finding the legs to hang in from behind.Comment
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Re: 2-6-10
Malinsky ADD
4* #686 BOISE STATE/IDAHO Under
A rather crucial game between two intense rivals, with neither having a smooth offensive flow and both defenses having ample time to put a game plan together, would tell us that points are a premium. But that is nothing new for a Don Verlin vs. Greg Graham matchup – in their first three head-to-head games since the former took over the Idaho program they have played to counts of 110, 122 and 124 in regulation. But in yet another case of where the marketplace bases projections more on overall mathematics than the particulars of a given matchup, we are given a more than generous Total to work with.Crucial game? Yes it is – these two are tied with Hawaii at 2-7 at the bottom of the W.A.C. standings, and only the top eight make it to the conference tourney. So the usual in-state rivalry gets taken up a notch, and much like that earlier O.T. affair at Idaho (a Total that would have fallen 121 if Anthony Thomas had not drained a triple at the buzzer), these two are going to guard each other tenaciously.That shot by Thomas may turn out to be a turning point in the Boise State season. With their backs to the wall at 0-7 in league play going in they reached back for their best defensive effort, and in their only game in nearly two full weeks since then they clamped down 65-49 against Fresno State. They can again put the clamps on a Vandal offense that is only averaging 61 points per game on the conference road, and having found a couple of victories by slowing the tempo they stay that course.There are no explosive scorers to be found here, with no player on either team averaging 15.0 per game. With each team knowing the other so well the offenses have long struggles to score, which makes this Total far too highComment
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Re: 2-6-10
Craig Davis Saturday's Lineup
75 Dime – NEW MEXICO
NEW MEXICO --- I'm actually glad the San Diego State Aztecs have been pummeling their last few lesser opponents, because it will do two things in my favor tonight. First, it will give them a false sense of security because they haven't really been challenged in quite some time. SD State hasn't trailed in a game since a two-point loss to BYU back on January 23rd. Things have come too easy for them in their recent wins over Air Force and Colorado State, and it's been a while since they've really been challenged. How will they respond if they fall behind by 10 early? What happens if one of their starters actually gets in early foul trouble?
Consider this... they've only been on the road in just a handful of meaningful road games against quality opponents and they've lost all three times. Their most recent was a 10-point loss at UNLV in which they actually took a 6-point lead to the locker room but go outscored by 16 in the second frame. In non-conference play the Aztecs dropped a 71-63 decision at Pacific and earlier in the year they lost 80-58 at St. Mary's. You can point to all the close games (or big wins) this team has had recently, but the bottom line is... when they go on the road in a hostile environment, they struggle.
The second thing San Diego State's recent, success has done is kept the line respectable. In fact, I expect it to maybe go down a half point by tipoff (it's currently sitting at -7 in many places), so you might want to wait until about an hour before tipoff to make this wager. The general public is starting to pound San Diego State right now and I actually had a friend of mine email me tonight (he knows what I do for a living) and he told me to "pound the Aztecs" Saturday. Ha Ha. Little does he know I have occasionally taken some of his "favorite" plays and gone against him, even releasing a few of those to you (all but one was a winner). This line is just high enough for people to think the Aztecs can stay within the number, but low enough for me to give it to you as a very sizable play.
New Mexico is nearly unbeatable at home, having dropped just one decision in 15 tries there this season. Ask anyone who knows anything about college hoops about one of the top 5 toughest venues to play and if they really know what they're talking about, they'll include The Pit every time. Even when the Lobos are a very average basketball team, they always seem to give people fits at home. They have one of the best home records in college basketball over the last ten years, and they seem to always step it up against the "big boys". With San Diego State lurking, just a game behind New Mexico in the Mountain West Conference, this game could mean a lot when it comes to seeding for the Conference Tourney.
Let's also not forget, the Lobos have HUGE revenge on their minds from the whipping they took in San Diego back in early January. In that game, forward Malcolm Thomas had the game of his life, recording 18 points and 15 boards in 30 minutes of work, including 4 crucial offensive rebounds and putbacks. In fact, the whole Aztec crew shot very well for the game (44% from the field/39% from three-point land) and out-rebounded the Lobos 42-33. Interestingly enough, that's the last time the Lobos have been out-rebounded. These two teams are #1 and #2 in rebounding, which is important tonight because New Mexico is undefeated when they win the battle of the boards. Half the battle in rebounding is effort and "want to"... and tonight I believe (in revenge mode) New Mexico wants it more. The Lobos shot a dismal 35% from the field in their first meeting... and this came from a team that normally shoots 44%. It's clear to me New Mexico simply didn't come to play back on January 5th, but tonight is going to be a different story.
The ironic thing about the fact the Lobos only shoot 44% is that they're still winning games. Their shooting percentage is one of the worst in the MWC, yet they're 6-2 in conference play and have won 6 in a row. What happens when they actually start shooting for well? It's not easy to shoot worse than your opponents and continually win, but that's exactly what they've done. They are on the verge of really hitting their stride and I believe it starts tonight. New Mexico is off to its best start since the 1997 season when they began the year 21-3 and HC Steve Alford has now coached this team to three straight 20-win seasons. Their second most recent win, a 4-point decision over BYU, ran their record to 4-0 this season against ranked opponents... the others included Cal, Texas Tech and Texas A&M.
This game might also be a result of San Diego State's poor free throw shooting... one of a few teams that shoots less than 60% from the stripe. In their last meeting with New Mexico, the Aztecs connected on just 19 of 31, and it's amazing in itself that the Aztecs were even able to get to the line that many times. Both teams are athletic, can rebound, and can play a little defense. But tonight, New Mexico wins this big because of home court, free throw shooting, and "want to". Lobos by 13Comment
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Re: 2-6-10
Jeff Benton
Saturday's Action
30 Dime: VIRGINIA
10 Dime: LOUSIVILLE
10 Dime: UAB
Virginia
Virginia is playing rock-solid basketball right now, ripping off 10 wins in its last 12 games, including back-to-back blowout wins this week over ACC rivals North Carolina (75-60 on the road) and North Carolina State (59-47 at home). The Cavaliers are also on a 7-3 ATS roll.
True, one of Virginia’s last two losses came at Wake Forest two Saturdays ago, a 69-57 setback as a 5½-point road underdog. It was the Cavaliers’ worst loss of the conference season and only the second time all year they were beaten by more than five points. But what really cost Virginia that day was a slow start, as Wake took a 34-15 lead into the locker room at halftime (over the final 12 minutes of play, the Cavaliers outscored the Demon Deacons 42-35).
Virginia was also uncharacteristically shaky at the free-throw line that day at Wake Forest, missing half of 16 attempts; for the season, the team ranks 16th nationally in free-throw shooting at 74.4 percent, including 75.5 percent at home. Compare that to the Demon Deacons, who make just 66.1 percent of their foul shots, including 64 percent on the road. And here’s a little nugget for you: Visitors to Charlottesville make just 59.7 percent of their free throws, making John Paul Jones Arena the second toughest free-throw shooting venue in the nation!
Now, I do admit that Virginia is a size disadvantage in this game, and that hurt the Cavs in their loss at Wake Forest (the Deacons had a 42-26 rebounding edge). But Virginia’s quickness at the guard position can give teams fits, and Wake Forest knows it as it committed 24 turnovers in its win over the Cavaliers two weeks ago.
One more point to make: This is actually a quadruple-revenge situation for Virginia, as it has lost four straight to Wake Forest (0-4 ATS). However, three of those games were played in Winston-Salem. In fact, the home team has won 14 of the last 16 in this rivalry (12-4 ATS) going back to 2000-2001. Also, the favorite has covered in four of the last five meetings.
Bottom line, here: Virginia – which is on ATS rolls of 7-3 overall, 7-3 at home and 5-2 in ACC play – is playing with a ton of confidence right now. And unlike two weeks ago, the Cavaliers will not get off to a slow start, not in front of their home crowd. Throw in those free-throw numbers mentioned above, and the Cavs are a solid play here at a very cheap price.
Louisville
After losing four of five contests to close out January, including three in brutal late-game fashion, the Cardinals got their mojo back in a big way Monday, pounding UConn 82-69 as a 6½-point home favorite. Now they welcome Rutgers to Freedom Hall, and even though the Scarlet Knights have won two in a row, don’t kid yourself – this is still one BAD basketball team. Take note:
Prior to upsetting Notre Dame (74-73) and St. John’s (84-72) at home, Rutgers had lost nine in a row, including its first eight Big East games. Not only did they lose those eight Big East contests, they didn’t cash a single ticket (0-8 ATS). Six of the losses (to Marquette, Georgetown, Villanova, Syracuse and West Virginia – five of the best teams in the rugged Big East – and Providence) were massive double-digit blowouts. Put it another way, Rutgers has lost all six of its true road games by margins of 14, 34, 13, 9, 25 and 23 points. Five of those were conference road losses, and again, not a single spread-cover.
Back to Louisville: While it has lost five of its last nine, you have to give this squad a bit of a pass. Four of the five losses were to ranked teams (Kentucky, Villanova, Pitt and West Virginia), and not only were all of them single-digit defeats, but two were three-point road losses (at West Virginia and at Seton Hall) and another was an overtime loss at Pittsburgh (82-77). And if you take away an eight-point home loss to Villanova (which might be the best team in the country), the Cardinals are 4-0 in conference home games (including that rout of UConn this week).
Finally, to say this has been a one-sided rivalry would be an understatement, as these teams have met three times the last two years, with Louisville prevailing in all three games by scores of 64-49 (on the road), 87-50 (at home) and 78-59 (on the road), going 3-0 ATS. Throw in these pointspread numbers – Rutgers 3-13 ATS in its last 16 Big East games; Louisville is 44-17-2 ATS in its last 63 Big East games – and this one’s a no-brainer. Lay the lumber and watch the Cardinals, who need big wins to boost their NCAA Tournament resume, destroy a Scarlet Knights squad that gives up 84 ppg on 50 percent shooting on the road!
UAB
Yep, I’m willing to give the Blazers another shot after that brutal loss (and even more brutal non-cover) they suffered at Memphis on Wednesday. In that game – and I had a 20 Dime play on UAB – the Blazers played Memphis even-up for 36 of 40 minutes, with the game tied at the under-four-minute mark. Then things totally came unraveled and UAB lost 85-75 as a 7½-point underdog. If that wasn’t bad enough, the defeat came on the heels of a 74-65 overtime home loss to UTEP.
Today, I fully expect UAB to play like the team that, prior to this recent two-game hiccup, rattled off seven straight wins – including six in a row in Conference USA, three of which came on the road. I fully expect it for two reasons 1) The Blazers (still 18-4 on the season) have a ton of talent and their players are going to be focused and motivated coming off their first two-game skid of the season), and 2) Rice is bloody awful!
The Owls are 7-14 on the season, including 1-for-8 in Conference USA. The only league win came against East Carolina, which is 7-15 overall and, like Rice, 1-7 in conference. Here’s a sampling of some of the Owls’ performances in Conference USA: 83-66 home loss to Houston; 77-58 loss at Central Florida; 72-58 loss at Tulane; 80-68 home loss to Memphis and 73-65 home loss to SMU.
The Blazers have won four straight meetings in this rivalry (one each of the last four years), including two wins at Rice. Last year when these teams met up in Birmingham, UAB rolled 78-40 as an 18-point home favorite. I smell a similar result here, as the Blazers are way overdue for a blowout victory, and they’ll get it against a massively inferior opponent.Comment
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