2-6-10

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 2-6-10

MIKE HOOK

CBB Sides Sat, 02/06/10 - 8:30 PM ƒŠ

triple-dime bet 679 Santa Clara 8.0 (-110) BetUS vs 680 San Diego
Analysis: There is great value backing Santa Clara today, and i considered another play on the ML here. I think it's completely warranted, and i'll explain why. First off, there is NO WAY that this current San Diego team should be an 8 point favorite over anyone right now, let alone a Santa Clara team that is playing far better than their record would indicate. Let's also not forget that Santa Clara has revenge today, as they lost at home earlier this season to the Toreros.

I'll start by talking about the home court advantage of San Diego. Is it really a home court advantage?? I'm here to tell you that it absolutely isn't a home court advantage at all. San Diego only averages about 3,000 people per game, and Saturday games they struggle to even fit 2,000 people into the game. That's for 2 reasons. The first would be there is so many things to do in San Diego, that the Toreros on a Saturday night simply aren't a draw. 2nd, San Diego doesn't take well to losing, as they simply won't back a team that isn't any good. This Torerors team is really, really in bad shape right now, and i'd bet anything on the UNDER 1,500 total fans tonight. So there is NO home court advantage tonight. So this line is skewed from the start.

I've talked at length about this Torerors team, as i know them very very well. I feel like i know this team far more than i know the Aztecs this year, so we will use that to our advantage tonight. San Diego is a 2 man show, as it's all Brandon Johnson and De'Jon Jackson. These two are literally the entire Toreros team. Unfortunately, Jackson went down with a knee injury that has now offically ended his season. Jackson has started 81 games for San Diego, and has been a fixture on this team for quite some time. Jackson went down with 5 minutes to go in their last game, and they ended up losing the game. This news was just announced yesterday, so there is yet another black cloud over a team already filled with turmoil. Most of the time, i would say to back a team that is playing without a star. This isn't the case with this team, as they are so thin on talent to begin with, AND because there is already so much turmoil with this team. This season injury to Jackson was the final straw for this team, as i think they go into a tailspin. Jackson was arguably the Toreros best player, as he was the 2nd leading scorer, their best free throw shooter, and overall leader of this team.

It would be easy to look at Santa Clara's record and think they are terrible, as they've lost 8 of their last 9 games. What's funny is that the one game that they did win, we backed Santa Clara in that specfic spot. They have been very competitive in 8 of those 9 recent games, and that's going to help them tonight. They battled Gonzaga to the bitter end last week, and again, i talked about how well Santa Clara was likely to be in that game. My point is simple, i have a good beat on this Santa Clara team. Santa Clara actually matches up very well with San Diego, especially now with the Toreros missing Jackson. Santa Clara has several San Diego ties tonight, so they will be looking not only to play well, but show up strong in front of family and friends. Santa Clara is going to be in this game throughout, as they only have to stop Brandon Johnson.

This game is going to be close throughout. In fact, i think it's highly likely that this game is so close throughout that the biggest lead EVER in this game never gets to double digits. I think points are going to be very hard to come by, and that works out in our favor here since we are catching +8 points. Santa Clara is hungry for a win, as they've been battling in every game, trying to stay competitive. Considering how they've played recently against both Saint Mary's and Gonzaga, i think they have the confidence to actually win this game outright. The turmoil, revenge angle, injuries, and lack of support from their fans are all going to cost San Diego bigtime tonight. This line is clearly an oddsmaker error, and we will capitalize. I'm backing Santa Clara +8 for my TRIPLE STAR 3 UNIT PLAY OF THE DAY!

Thanks always for your support. As always, i have a daily thread in the pregame forums where i talk about leans and other info. I will be releasing 2 more basketball plays shortly, as well as UFC plays. Let's have a great day as we head to Super Sunday!

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 2-6-10

Great Lakes Sports Guaranteed Selections
Date: Saturday, February 06, 2010
$25.00 Guaranteed: Here we go with our 5* CBB Game Of The Year where we are an amazing 4-1 (80%) on our 5* College Basketball Selections this year, as we will take your man down this Saturday. So do yourself a favor and check out the reasons behind this 5* Beauty which has a combined record of 34-4-1 (89%) in our favor, and cash in Big today with Great Lakes Sports. 2/5/2010

Great Lakes Sports rates their selections 3*, 4*, & 5* with 5* being our highest rated selection. College Basketball Selection: Indiana State at Wichita State 8:05PM EST Play On: 5* College Basketball Game Of The Year: 5* (664) Wichita State Shockers The Wichita State Shockers are playing their best Basketball of the seasons, as they are an amazing 8-2-1 ATS overall their last eleven games, and the Wichita State Shockers are a perfect 7-0 ATS when playing in their last seven games following a straight up loss. The Wichita State Shockers are a stunning 5-0 ATS when playing their last five games at home, and they are a perfect 5-0 ATS when playing in their last five games vs a team with a winning percentage above .600. The Indiana State Sycamores are a terrible 1-4 when playing in their last five games vs a team with a winning home record, and the Favorite is a very nice 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven meetings in this series. We here at Great Lakes Sports look for the Wichita State Shockers to roll over the Indiana State Sycamores in this key conference showdown and grab the home ATS Win & Cover. TAKE: WICHITA STATE SHOCKERS.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 2-6-10

O.C. Dooley Guaranteed Selections
Date: Saturday, February 06, 2010
$50.00 Guaranteed: Tonight marks just the second college "5 UNIT" bombshell of the season and the initial one COVERED by double-digits back on 1/20. I am personally betting AGAINST a squad that has just KICKED OUT 4 players from what is now a severely depleted roster!!! 2/6/2010

#710 TONIGHT’S SPECIAL “5 UNIT” BEST BET (Tennessee-Martin -1 at home versus Tennessee State in a 7:05 eastern tipoff): Arguably Tennessee-Martin (3-18, 0-11 conference) is the worst team in the country especially since they have amazingly dropped 14 of the past 15 attempts against the spread. But there is a good reason why the Skyhawks have been cast as a favorite as they are facing a Tennessee State squad (4-20, 1-11 conference) that is almost as bad. One of the reasons why this particular pick is so intriguing has to do with the “revenge” factor as Tennessee State’s only league victory this season came against none other than Tennessee-Martin. But the real big news which lifted this game into “5 Unit” elite status has to do with the fact that less then a week ago Tennessee State KICKED OFF 4 players from the squad including their LEAD SCORER Josh Sain due to repeated violations that one would assume were incredibly serious in nature. To make a long story short Tennessee State is now operating with just NINE players on what is a severely depleted roster. Of the nine remaining eligible players 5 of them just happen to be inexperienced FRESHMEN. To give you an idea how truly young they are a whopping 31% of Tennessee State’s offensive output comes from a pair of FRESHMEN who can get rattled when playing on the road. Not only is Tennessee State an extremely “green” squad, they are operating under a ROOKIE head coach who obviously has lost control of the locker room by having to eject 4 players from the roster. Getting back to Tennessee-Martin they are coming off an impressive outing where they climbed back from a massive 18-point deficit to lose by just a “five” point count. Martin actually was within THREE points and possession of the ball with less than 30-seconds left on the clock. For a team that has been drilled almost on a nightly basis, Tennessee-Martin is coming off a game where they gained a valuable LEARNING EXPERIENCE dealing with a tight contest in the waning seconds and with a virtual pick-em spot tonight, that experience will come in handy. According to Martin’s head coach his team earlier this week was able to limit the opposition’s “second shot” opportunities by dominating the boards. It was exactly one week ago when Tennessee-Martin hosted an ESPNU televised contest and was pounded by Murray State who is the cream of the crop from the Ohio Valley Conference. But on this particular Saturday Martin is hosting an opponent who is the exact OPPOSITE of Murray State as far as statistics are concerned. As previously mentioned Tennessee State just kicked FOUR players off the squad and on Thursday the now depleted roster shot just 34% from the field and hit just 60% of their free-throw attempts. In a virtual pick-em spot such as this those missed free throws are critical

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 2-6-10

Triple Threat Sports Guaranteed Selections
Date: Saturday, February 06, 2010
$23.00 Guaranteed: In a world of 10,000* "Locks" and such a 4* may not sound like much, but when release a 4* play it is worth noting, as we are 110-56 (66%) on all College Hoops 4* plays over the last six(+) seasons! We are in the Top Ten in the Nation in College Hoops as monitored by The Sports Monitor and will keep the winning going today with this team in a great situation and excellent fundamentals...Join Us! 2/6/2010

(634) 4* Denver (-) over Florida Atlantic [6pm]

Few teams have as big of a Home/Away dichotomy as the Denver Pioneers. They might not be able to beat Marist on the road, but get them at home and it is a different story. Their success at home is a combination of the altitude, the incredibly loud throng of 6000(+) at Magness Arena, and five returning starters to go along with a deep bench that (in combination with the other two factors) wears opposing teams down. Denver does come into this off back to back losses, but both of those were on the road and in fact those losses provide value here. As for Florida Atlantic, they are travelling to altitude and have not done well away from home this season. In fact, they are 1-9 SU in ten road games against teams ranked in our Top 200, and Denver at home is well within that range. The road losses for FAU have come by an average of 13.2 ppg, the win came by just a point, and the most recent road loss came by 17 points against North Texas, a team we rate almost even with Denver. Finally, note this is the second straight road game for FAU; making the altitude an even bigger factor. Lay the points here.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 2-6-10

Wise Guy Insider Guaranteed Selections
Date: Saturday, February 06, 2010
$35.00 Guaranteed: You can get our QUADRUPLE COLLEGE HOOPS CONFERENCE USA GAME OF THE YEAR for just $35 and as always you must win this game or you will not be charged! 69-31 GUARANTEED WINNING RUN! The name of the game is INFORMATION and we have just received some KILLER INFO on one of today's COLLEGE BASKETBALL games! 2/6/2010

QUADRUPLE COLLEGE HOOPS CONFERENCE USA GAME OF THE YEAR
696 UTEP -5.5 10:00 EST

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 2-6-10

Erin Rynning

2/6/10 NBA New Orleans +8.5 -110 (501)

2/6/10 NBA Playmaker: Milwaukee Over 206 -110 (514)

2/6/10 NBA LA Clippers Over 195 -110 (522)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 2-6-10

Craig Davis Saturday's Lineup
75 Dime – NEW MEXICO

NEW MEXICO --- I'm actually glad the San Diego State Aztecs have been pummeling their last few lesser opponents, because it will do two things in my favor tonight. First, it will give them a false sense of security because they haven't really been challenged in quite some time. SD State hasn't trailed in a game since a two-point loss to BYU back on January 23rd. Things have come too easy for them in their recent wins over Air Force and Colorado State, and it's been a while since they've really been challenged. How will they respond if they fall behind by 10 early? What happens if one of their starters actually gets in early foul trouble?

Consider this... they've only been on the road in just a handful of meaningful road games against quality opponents and they've lost all three times. Their most recent was a 10-point loss at UNLV in which they actually took a 6-point lead to the locker room but go outscored by 16 in the second frame. In non-conference play the Aztecs dropped a 71-63 decision at Pacific and earlier in the year they lost 80-58 at St. Mary's. You can point to all the close games (or big wins) this team has had recently, but the bottom line is... when they go on the road in a hostile environment, they struggle.

The second thing San Diego State's recent, success has done is kept the line respectable. In fact, I expect it to maybe go down a half point by tipoff (it's currently sitting at -7 in many places), so you might want to wait until about an hour before tipoff to make this wager. The general public is starting to pound San Diego State right now and I actually had a friend of mine email me tonight (he knows what I do for a living) and he told me to "pound the Aztecs" Saturday. Ha Ha. Little does he know I have occasionally taken some of his "favorite" plays and gone against him, even releasing a few of those to you (all but one was a winner). This line is just high enough for people to think the Aztecs can stay within the number, but low enough for me to give it to you as a very sizable play.

New Mexico is nearly unbeatable at home, having dropped just one decision in 15 tries there this season. Ask anyone who knows anything about college hoops about one of the top 5 toughest venues to play and if they really know what they're talking about, they'll include The Pit every time. Even when the Lobos are a very average basketball team, they always seem to give people fits at home. They have one of the best home records in college basketball over the last ten years, and they seem to always step it up against the "big boys". With San Diego State lurking, just a game behind New Mexico in the Mountain West Conference, this game could mean a lot when it comes to seeding for the Conference Tourney.

Let's also not forget, the Lobos have HUGE revenge on their minds from the whipping they took in San Diego back in early January. In that game, forward Malcolm Thomas had the game of his life, recording 18 points and 15 boards in 30 minutes of work, including 4 crucial offensive rebounds and putbacks. In fact, the whole Aztec crew shot very well for the game (44% from the field/39% from three-point land) and out-rebounded the Lobos 42-33. Interestingly enough, that's the last time the Lobos have been out-rebounded. These two teams are #1 and #2 in rebounding, which is important tonight because New Mexico is undefeated when they win the battle of the boards. Half the battle in rebounding is effort and "want to"... and tonight I believe (in revenge mode) New Mexico wants it more. The Lobos shot a dismal 35% from the field in their first meeting... and this came from a team that normally shoots 44%. It's clear to me New Mexico simply didn't come to play back on January 5th, but tonight is going to be a different story.

The ironic thing about the fact the Lobos only shoot 44% is that they're still winning games. Their shooting percentage is one of the worst in the MWC, yet they're 6-2 in conference play and have won 6 in a row. What happens when they actually start shooting for well? It's not easy to shoot worse than your opponents and continually win, but that's exactly what they've done. They are on the verge of really hitting their stride and I believe it starts tonight. New Mexico is off to its best start since the 1997 season when they began the year 21-3 and HC Steve Alford has now coached this team to three straight 20-win seasons. Their second most recent win, a 4-point decision over BYU, ran their record to 4-0 this season against ranked opponents... the others included Cal, Texas Tech and Texas A&M.

This game might also be a result of San Diego State's poor free throw shooting... one of a few teams that shoots less than 60% from the stripe. In their last meeting with New Mexico, the Aztecs connected on just 19 of 31, and it's amazing in itself that the Aztecs were even able to get to the line that many times. Both teams are athletic, can rebound, and can play a little defense. But tonight, New Mexico wins this big because of home court, free throw shooting, and "want to". Lobos by 13