2-7-10

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 2-7-10

Teddy Covers

15 Indy
15 Under

Props

Will Either Team Get 3 Straight Scores – YES

Will There Be a Score in the first 5:30 of the Game -- NO

Team to Have More Penalties – SAINTS

Both Teams to Kick a FG of 33 yards or Longer – NO

Longest Field Goal – UNDER 43 yards

Total Sacks – UNDER 3.5
Last Team to Take a Snap -- COLTS

Saints Last Score Will Be – PASSING TD

Scott Shanlee – OVER 4.5 Tackles

Drew Brees Rushing Attempts – UNDER 1.5

Phil Mickelson 4th Round Birdies vs. Peyton Manning TD passes --MICKELSON BIRDIES

Sidney Crosby Points – 1/2 vs. Drew Brees INT’s -- CROSBY POINTS
Alex Ovechkin Points -1/2 vs. Garrett Hartley Field Goals – OVECHKIN POINTS

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 2-7-10

KELSO NFL

100 units Saints +5.5
25 units Saints/Colts UNDER 57

KELSO BB

10 units OSU -19
10 units Maryland -6.5
10 units Northwestern -10
5 units Northern Colorado -10.5
3 units Univ. South Florida +8

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 2-7-10

Cal Sports

4'* Toronto

4* Syr/Cinn Under
3* USF

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 2-7-10

SEABASS

300 Saints/Colts Under
50 Saints +5.5
50 Colts ML

100 Notre Dame
50 Northwestern
50 N Arizona

50 Sacramento

50 Pittsburgh

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 2-7-10

Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons

Toronto -8½

Toronto looks to win seven straight at home for the first time in nearly three years Sunday afternoon by dealing the woeful Kings an 11th consecutive road loss; for a number of different reasons I believe we're getting excellent value on the home side in this situation:

The Kings have fallen apart since around the time Toronto’s surge began. Sacramento was a surprising 13-14 as of Dec. 21 but is 3-19 since - going 0-10 on the road.

The Kings blew a 14-point halftime lead and lost 112-109 in overtime at Denver on Monday. Sacramento came back to Arco Arena and lost 115-113 to San Antonio on Wednesday before falling behind by as many as 29 on Friday in a 114-102 defeat to Phoenix.

It comes as no surprise to learn then that Sacramento is just 4-12-1 ATS its last 17 overall and just 3-6 ATS its last nine on the road.

On the other side of the court: The Raptors were 11-17 as of Dec. 16 and were on the outside of the postseason race, but they’ve gone 16-6 since then to move into fifth place in the conference.

The Raptors (27-23) have gone from allowing 108.6 points per game in their first 28 to 100.8 over their last 22, and their field-goal percentage of 49.3 since mid-December is the best in the NBA.

They’ve shot 50.7 percent in winning their last six at home by 10.0 points per game and were hot from 3-point range Wednesday. All five starters scored at least 14 points and Toronto went 10 of 19 from beyond the arc in a 108-99 win over New Jersey.

Remember, not only is Toronto 4-2 ATS its last six, it's also 9-4 ATS its last 13 at home.

Bottom line: Two teams moving in opposite directions; when taking all of the above into account, the sharp money in this one is indeed on the RAPTORS!

9* RAPTORS

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 2-7-10

BOB BALFE

Indianapolis -5

This is the first Super Bowl in a while where one of the contenders is not above average on defense. Both teams are very similar, but when matching up the pros and cons on each side of the football, it is crystal clear to me that the Colts are the better team. Both offenses are nothing short of spectacular and will be hard to stop on sunday. In my opinion, Indianapolis has the best QB to ever play the game. It will be extremely tough for the Saints' 26th ranked defense to stop Manning and Co. The only way New Orleans can win this game is to win the turnover battle, but turnovers and Peyton Manning always fail to co-exist. Peyton Manning is not going to make the same mistakes as Favre and the Saints defense will not find much success getting after and pressuring Manning. The Colts offensive line has only allowed Manning to be sacked 10 times this year and he rarely receives alot of pressure. The Colts are at the bottom of the league at running the ball, but that does not mean that they are not effective at running the ball. Addai is a solid back and Brown has the speed to break big runs if the Saints focus all of their attention on the passing game. I expect the Colts running game to have a surprisingly efficient Super Bowl performance.

The bottom line is that the Colts Offensive Line Coach, Howard Mudd, is the best in the business. If the Saints can not apply pressure on Manning (which they will not), then there is virtually no chance to stop this offense. Another key is the Colts were 2nd best in the NFL this season on 3rd down completions. Now give Peyton Manning, the hardest working scholar in the NFL, 2 weeks to prepare for the Super Bowl! New Orleans' defense is actually well below average. The only bright side is their ability to create turnovers, but that is a sign of gambling in order to make a big play. If you review the history of the games where they created a lot of turnovers, the guilty parties on average were statistically in the bottom tier of the offensive rankings. Manning is the best at controlling the play clock and preventing defenses from getting that big jump to make a big play. I do not think the Saints defense will have the patience for Manning's game plan. Look for a lot of offside penalties and free plays on sunday. In addition, the Colts will devise a game plan in order to control the tempo and keep the Saints offense on the sidelines. Manning is the best at generating 7, 8, 9 minute touchdown drives (see 3rd-down completion success rate).

There is no denying that Drew Brees is the best QB in the NFC. In addition, the Saints have a good running game, but a lot of that has to do with the respect for the pass. All of the media focus this week is on Dwight Freeney. It would be a huge loss if he can't suit up (I think he will). If not, Brock is a very capable and worthy backup (actually more skilled than most starters on other teams). The youth of the Colts' cornerbacks scares me a bit, but this defense is very fast and receives a tremendous amount of support from their safeties. The linebackers for Indy are very smart and experienced also.

New Orleans also has a young FG kicker with little experience. Hartley kicked the game winner to get the Saints to the Super Bowl, but this is not at home and he has had two weeks to think about the big game.

The Saints have talked a lot of trash on how they are going to rock Manning. I am sure the refs are ready to have a field day! If anybody gets babied in football, it is Peyton Manning, the poster boy of the National Football League.

The late money coming in is on New Orleans, as they are the trendy and popular bet with Obama as well as all of the Hollywood celebreties. They are the feel good story with Katrina as we were reminded of the recent events in Haiti. Everyone will be pulling for the Saints, but the Colts have been here before with 25 players on the current roster kissing the ring just a few years ago. They are clearly the better team in multiple areas of this match-up...Take the Colts.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 2-7-10

Handicapper: (TonyK) 3G-Sports
New Orleans Saints vs. Indianapolis Colts (NFL) - 6:25 PM EST Premium Pick
Pick: Point Spread: 4.5/-107 New Orleans Saints Play Title: 4*
Click Here to View Pick Analysis
New Orleans had no business beating the Vikings in the NFC title game, and that's why this feels like one of those destiny situations to me. They are a more physical team than the Colts are. The Colts have the edge at QB, but I think Sean Payton will put together a masterful game plan. The Saints' defense is similar to the Jets' in what they try to do and how they give you different looks. The Saints also have a much better offense and spread the offense around. They play great as a unit, and I like a very tight game on Sunday.
3 prop plays to play as small 1 unit plays.

UNDER 8 total punts for the game. Reggie Bush to score the first TD at 10-1 Longest made FG OVER 44.5 yards.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 2-7-10

Erin Rynning

2/7/10 NBA Sacramento +8 -110 (801)

2/7/10 NBA Playmaker: Orlando +3 -110 (803)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 2-7-10

alatex
15* cincy +4.5

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 2-7-10

MIKE LINEBACK

Premium Selections

4* (*POD*) Teaser 7pts -130 | New Orleans Saints +11.5; Saints/Colts OVER 49.5 | 6:25p ET
Basically playing numbers here. Not comfortable laying the points with Indy but think they find a way to win this game. However, would not be suprised if New Orleans pulls the upset. IMO, Indy have the more complete team & are arguably playing better football. On the flip side, NO shouldn't even be here after benefiting from five Minnesota turnovers, several deep in their territory. Minny didn't have any problems moving the ball on the Saints defense in the NFC Championship game. That being said, New Orleans have a strong underdog force backing them. Call it destiny, the "Katrina" factor, whatever you like, but I don't think you can ignore it. Plus, let's not forget they are a very solid football team, explosive on offense & very opportunistic on defense. And at +11.5 points, I feel very comfortable with New Orleans securing a back-door cover, if necessary. Also, strongly believe both teams' playing away from their "Home Dome" environs, will tighten up this game even more than the point-spread indicates. Concerning total... I really don't think New Orleans can stop Manning. Blitz, zone & combination of diff't coverages, it doesn't matter. Manning will pick them apart. My only concern is Manning will eat up clock will long sustained drives. Hence, the reason for teasing the Over. Also, believe Brees & Co. will put some points on the board as well. In fact, I think both teams' will be in attack mode all game, trying to gain that much needed 1-2 possession lead, critical to winning this game. I have a hard time not seeing 50+ points being scored in this game. A 27-24 type game is very realistic & highly probable IMO.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 2-7-10

Al DeMarco Sunday's Play 15 Dime - Indianapolis Colts

Experience. It's the factor that means the most to me when breaking down this game.

If you watched my video today, I hit you with lots of trends and stats pertaining to both teams and the Super Bowl itself. But the one that matters the most is this:


Teams making their Super Bowl debut against an experienced
title game opponent are 6-11 ATS.


Before I got into this business I used to be a sports journalist and time after time you'd hear about how teams didn't handle the bye week between the Conference Championships and the title game that well, how they struggled with preparation schedules while inexperienced coaches called others in their ranks for tips and advice. You'd see how the players had to deal with off-field distractions in various cities - which I personally believe were more prevalent in years past - and family situations (arranging for tickets for family and friends, arranging travel, etc.). With the explosion of the national media coverage over the past 15 years, the so-called "media-circus" has increased as well.

For those reasons above, and so many more, I simply like the Colts, who beat the Bears on this same field in Miami three Super Bowls ago. Think about this: 25 members of that title-winning team are still on this year's roster. Conversely, the Saints have a total of three players with Super Bowl experience.

At this point some of you might be asking yourself, "what about Arizona last year?" True, the Cardinals were a first-timer and they nearly beat the Steelers while easily getting the cover. But keep in mind they had a Super Bowl-winning veteran at quarterback in Kurt Warner. And his calming influence and experience was the difference in my book.

Reflecting back on the NFC Championship game, I bet the Saints at -3 after buying down the half point and was extremely fortunate to walk away with a push in a game they should have lost. Forget about the last drive of regulation when Favre's faux pas and a costly penalty cost the Vikings a chance to win the game. If not for the five turnovers, Minnesota should have and could have won that day, beating New Orleans on its homefield in the Superdome. In many ways, that was the Saints' Super Bowl.

Take the Saints out of the Superdome and you're also removing a "12th man" for them as the crowd noise is no longer present as is the artificial turf that makes an athletic team all that faster. And think back to how New Orleans struggled on the road in the second half of the season, barely beating Atlanta (26-23) and Washington (33-30 in OT) in early December, struggling to overcome lowly St. Louis (28-23) in mid-November.

Much has been made about the Saints being able to hammer Brett Favre throughout the NFC championship game.$,. Defensive coordinator Gregg Williams threw the kitchen sink at Favre, who lost his mobility in the pocket a decade ago and was playing behind a good - not great - offensive line. Williams will undoubtedly try the same approach against Peyton Manning, but keep in mind he was sacked just 10 times during the regular season; twice each in the playoff games against the Ravens and Jets, who are defensively a step above the Saints when it comes to generating a pass rush.

One thing to keep in mind: Manning is 5-2 SU (5-1-1 ATS) vs. Williams' defenses over the years (he held a similar position at AFC South rivals Jacksonville and Tennessee you might recall), averaging 65% completions and 285 yards a game with 13 TDs and 4 interceptions. And in those seven games he was sacked just seven times.

Manning is the best in the business of finding someone when under pressure. Focus on Reggie Wayne and you get burned by Pierre Garcon or Austin Collie; just ask the Jets as that unheralded duo combined for 27 receptions in the AFC Championship game. And don't forget Manning has perhaps one of the top three tight ends in the business in Dallas Clark.

This is a tight price with Indianapolis around 5 as I post this play on Friday afternoon (3:00 P.M. Eastern); I anticipate the price might go up a bit as the game approaches once the public weighs in on the Colts. But this is not an insurmountable number to cover as history has shown us the Super Bowl is rarely a closely contested affair; 21 of the 43 games have been decided by 14 points or more; 32 by at least a touchdown.

Only eight times in Super Bowl history has the straight-up winner failed to cover. And SU winners are 9-1 ATS in the postseason with the only loser being the Saints versus Minnesota. But that trend only extends one I've updated for you weekly in my videos this season as SU winners are a combined 208-53-5 ATS in the regular and postseason combined for a spread-covering clip of 79.7%. Throw in the preseason and that figure jumps to nearly 83%. That's a trend I'm not bucking as I'm backing Indianapolis 28-20.


Prop Plays

These are NOT rated releases; they're just fun plays to make SMALL wagers on if you're interested. Watch my video on my homepage for my thoughts on props and details on why I like these particular plays.

My selection for each is in bold beneath each listing.


Drew Brees Total passing attempts - Over/Under of 35.5
(Over -135)

Will Peyton Manning throw a 3rd quarter TD pass?
Yes (+145)

Will either team score 3 straight times without the other team scoring?
No (+145)

The first score of game will be Touchdown or Field Goal.
Field Goal (+190)

Will there be a defensive or special teams score?
Yes (+145)

Total Sacks by both teams - Over/Under of 3.5

Over (+200)

MVP Potential Winner:

Reggie Wayne (10-1)

Over/Under on time Carrie Underwood singing the National Anthem is 1:42

Under (-150)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 2-7-10

vegas-runner | CBB Sides Sun, 02/07/10 - 12:00 PM ‘•
double-dime bet 806 NotreDame -7.5 (-110) Bodog vs 805 South Florida
Analysis: “** CBB 2* PERSONAL PLAY **

©2010 Pregame.com - All rights reserved. Unauthorized distribution, transmission or republication strictly prohibited.

vegas-runner | CBB Sides Sun, 02/07/10 - 12:00 PM ‘•
double-dime bet 808 Ohio St. -19.5 (-110) Bodog vs 807 Iowa
Analysis: ** CBB 2* PERSONAL PLAY ** (Confirmed as STE’AM)

©2010 Pregame.com - All rights reserved. Unauthorized distribution, transmission or republication strictly prohibited.


vegas-runner | NBA Total Sun, 02/07/10 - 12:05 PM ‘•
double-dime bet 801 SAC / 802 TOR Over 216.5 Sportbet
Analysis: ** NBA 2* PERSONAL PLAY ** (Confirmed STEAM)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 2-7-10

Teddy Covers

Magic
Maryland

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 2-7-10

St.Bernadine Sports
Matt Dennehy
Lillefty

2* Iona -14 over Marist (2 pm est)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 2-7-10

BLAZER
NO Saints +5