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Jimmy Moore Guaranteed Selections
Date: Wednesday, February 10, 2010
#709 - #710 5* Orlando - Chicago UNDER 192 (8:05 est)
The Magic have gone under in 19 of their 27 road games this season and they are a perfect 7 for 7 under in games after they give up 105 points. Orlando has gone under in 5 of their last 6 games and the Bulls have gone under in 5 of their last 7 games. Look for a low scoring affair in the Windy City on Wednesday. Thank you and good luck
double-dime bet 791 New Mexico 6.0 (-120) BetUS vs 792 UNLV
Analysis: I love the spot New Mexico is in tonight. It's funny how the public jumps on and off teams like it's nothing. Little do they realize that they are typically one game late in their movement. This MWC showdown tonight is arguably the 2nd best game of the entire night in CBB. I know there are a few other higher profile games, but this one is going to be special. I think both New Mexico and UNLV match up very well with each other, and it's only right that they are playing for the conference lead tonight. Both teams are nationally ranked, and both teams are playing really well right now. But there is VALUE on this New Mexico team, and i expect them to win this game OUTRIGHT, in a very grueling contest.
New Mexico is 21-3 SU this season, so clearly they are a good team. What i like most about this team is how well they respond to adversity, and just how tough they are. This team is always good at home, but they've proven this year that they can win in other settings as well. The Lobos have beat California, Texas AM, Texas Tech, Dayton, and BYU this season. This team can win in a variety of ways, which always helps when going on the road as the listed underdog. What i like best about this game is the fact that New Mexico has revenge from an earlier season loss to UNLV. That loss wasn't just a regular loss, it was a BRUTAL loss. New Mexico lost by 12 points at home, their largest deficit in any of their 3 games. The Lobos also scored a season low 62 points in that game. The Lobos shot 36% from the field in that game, which is downright awful. Certainly the defense of UNLV contributed to much of the Lobos problems, but the fact is New Mexico failed to show up in that game. I remember saying before the season even started that the Mountain West Conference was a 3 man race. I knew whoever was playing on revenge between New Mexico, BYU, and UNLV would be a good wager. So far this has held true, and i expect it to be the same today.
Take Towson as the small home chalk over UNC-Wilmington.
I know these are two bad teams, but UNC-Wilmington is in a total state of disarray. It all started when coach Benny Moss was “reassigned” on Jan. 29. I’m not sure what that means, but by all accounts from those associated within the school’s athletic department he was fired.
The Seahawks were struggling before the dismissal of Moss, and now they are a complete mess. They have lost four straight and nine of their last 10, going 1-9 ATS. To illustrate the effect of Moss’ reassignment had, the Seahawks lost at home to Towson on Jan. 30, 58-53 as a 7½-point chalk.
To make matters worse, Seahawks’ guard Chad Tomko is doubtful tonight with an ankle injury. Tomko is the team’s leading scorer at 13.4 ppg.
Towson has them at home and knows they can win this game. The Tigers are coming off a home win over James Madison on Monday, 81-78.
The home team is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings between these two.
Take Towson as they grab the home win and cover.
20 Dime –
DUKE
Take Duke as the road chalk over North Carolina.
The Tarheels, like the aforementioned Seahawks of UNC-Wilmington, are a mess right now.
But North Carolina isn’t in a state of disarray due to coaching. The Tarheels are a young team that is plagued by mental mistakes and it’s seen them fall to the bottom of the ACC standings.
You know the Blue Devils are relishing the opportunity to kick them while they’re down.
Duke has lost three straight and six of the last seven in this rivalry, so you know Coach K will have them ready to go.
The Tarheels are riding a current three-game slide and they have lost six of their last seven overall. During that time they are 1-6 ATS.
North Carolina has been guilty of mental lapses on both ends of the floor, and the Blue Devils will capitalize on every one of them tonight.
Tarheels point guard Larry Drew has struggled big time this year with turnovers and that’s going to allow Duke to extend the lead.
Take Duke minus the points as they grab the road win and cover
See, several years ago – right before their run of three straight NBA titles – the L.A. Lakers were losing to Utah in the deciding game of a playoff series when they called a timeout late in the fourth quarter. The players broke the huddle with the familiar “1-2-3” chant, only guard Nick Van Exel ended his by uttering “Cancun!” Van Exel knew the game, series and season were over, and his mind was already on vacation.
Well, there’s no doubt in my mind that the Portland Trail Blazers will be having their own “1-2-3 Cancun” moment in Phoenix tonight. Really, other than the New Jersey Nets, I can’t think of a team looking forward to the All-Star break more than the banged-up Blazers (who get six days off after this game). As I noted yesterday in my analysis on the Thunder-Blazers game – when I backed Oklahoma City with a 25 Dime winner – Portland has been ravaged by injuries. This team has lost two centers (Greg Oden and Joel Pryzbilla) for the season; solid forward Travis Outlaw has missed 43 games with a foot injury; and point guard Brandon Roy – the team’s heart and soul – has missed 11 games in a row and 13 of the last 14 with a hamstring injury, and he won’t be back until after the All-Star break (if then).
Adding injury to insult, last night forward Martell Webster (averaging 10.8 points and 4 rebounds per game) got undercut near the basket and fell hard to the floor, injuring his back. He walked off under his own power and missed much of the rest of the game. Though Webster is expected to play tonight, who knows how effective he’ll be, as back injuries are killer for athletes.
Regardless of how effective Webster will be, how tough a spot is this for Portland, which has lost three in a row and seven of 11 (all without Roy)? The few Blazers who are healthy expended a ton of energy last night, as they fell behind 14-2 to start the game, battled back to tie it at 41-41 at halftime and took a two-point lead into the fourth quarter … only to completely run out of steam over the final 12 minutes, as the Thunder outscored Portland 30-16. Here’s how bad things were last night: Four Blazers – Webster and guards Jerryd Bayless, Rudy Fernandez and Steve Blake – missed a combined 19 of 22 shots and finished with a combined eight points as Portland finished with its lowest point total since scoring 76 points at the Lakers on Opening Night … of LAST season!
Now, after an overnight flight to Phoenix, the Blazers limp right back onto the court 24 hours later. They also have to face a Suns team that: A) has won and covered five games in a row; B) has been resting since Friday, when it capped a perfect four-game road trip with a 12-point win at Sacramento (its last three wins on the trip – at New Orleans, Denver and Sacramento – came by 9, 12 and 12 points); C) is 18-6 at home this year; D) will push the pace all night long (the Suns average 110 ppg overall, 113 ppg at home and they’ve topped triple digits in 11 straight games and 23 of the last 24); and E) has defeated Portland nine straight times in Phoenix.
Not only have the Suns won nine in a row against the Blazers at US Airways Center, but those nine wins came by an average of 16.9 points per game. And I guarantee you this: None of those nine games were played under the kind of circumstances that surround this one, circumstances like Phoenix coming in off of four days rest and playing very confidently during a five-game winning streak; Portland traveling after a rough home loss the night before in which it scored its fewest points in 154 games; the Blazers coming in battered and bruised and without their best player for a 12th straight game; and the All-Star break looming for both teams (Phoenix is eager to take a six-game winning streak into the break; Portland is just eager to get some time off).
Throw in the fact that the favorite is on an 18-7-1 ATS run in this rivalry, the home team has cashed in the last five, the Suns are 23-11-1 ATS in the last 35 games against the Blazers, and Portland is 4-12-1 ATS in its last 17 trips to Phoenix, and this is an absolute no-brainer! Lay the chalk with the Suns, who should enter the fourth quarter with a 20-point lead and cruise home from there.
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