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Feerringo 2-13-10
4-Unit Play. Take #598 Tulsa (-2)
3-Unit Play. Take #628 Wake Forest (-3
1.5-Unit Play. Take #614 North Texas (-5.5)
1.5-Unit Play. Take #554 Georgia (-2.5)
1.5-Unit Play. Take #531 Butler (-6)
To get the kind of margin being called for here, especially at the anticipated tempo, it is going to require a huge degree of dominance by Purdue. The Boilermakers have not won a Big 10 game by more than 20 points, and the Hawkeyes have not lost a conference affair by that plateau. And under today’s circumstances that degree of dominance would take a huge roll of the dice.
For Purdue the eyes have been on March since the start of the season, and as such Matt Painter knows that he can not get the full effort from his team every time they take the court – that would have them far short of energy when it is going to be needed most. It means picking some spots to pull back the reins a little, and this is a classic setting for that. Two games back there was that draining 78-75 win at Indiana that was not determined until the final possession, and following that was the showdown win at Michigan State earlier this week. Immediately on deck are games against Ohio State and Illinois, both currently a half game ahead of them for first place in the Big 10 standings. So this is the prime spot for Painter to be content with merely grinding out a win and moving forward, not looking to extend the energy more than is necessary.
Not that this margin would have been available anyway. Iowa may lack big-time talent but the Hawkeyes are playing with a lot of chemistry right now, with three outright underdog wins in their current 6-2 ATS run, and note that one of those spread failures came by a half point. No team has scored more than 70 points against them in that run, and they also won the battle of the boards by a +3. Considering that they played Ohio State twice, Illinois and Michigan State in that span, it speaks volumes. In whipping Northwestern in double figures in their last outing we saw excellent team basketball, with four players scoring at least 13 points in an offense than had more than twice as many assists (18) as turnovers (8), and they will also approach this one with some confidence, having led in the second half of that earlier 67-56 home loss to the Boilermakers. Look for a similar tempo here, and a similar result.
MD is a solid money maker this year and on a nice 8-2 ATS run. We get good value with the Terps on account of a scheduling advantage in which MD got 3 extra prep days on account of a snow day postponement. MD goes into Cameron controlling a 7-2 ATS mark as a road dog and overdue to knock off a Top 10 team; after all,for 13 straight seasons the Terps have done just that. And when MD's HC Williams has had talent, his team has given Duke trouble in the past. Duke will be operating less Lance Thomas, who is most likely to sit out (knee bruise). MD is long and athletic and should give Duke all they can handle. With the road team at 4-1-1 ATS in this series and Duke struggling to cover on Saturdays at 2-6 ATS, we'll take the double digits.
LSU hasn't won a game on the road the entire season while Vanderbilt hasn't lost a home game all year. LSU hasn't won in conference play all season. Shouldn't this line be in the 20's or something? Vegas oddsmakers aren't stupid, they want people to take Vandy in this game. Vanderbilt is 34-60 ATS since 1997 after a win against a conference opponent. Commodores are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. We'll play LSU for 3 units today!
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