2-13-10

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 2-13-10

Wunderdog NCAAB

Game: L S U at Vanderbilt (1:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on L S U +16 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)

Game: Nebraska at Texas (4:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Nebraska +14 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)

Game: Iowa at Purdue (4:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 5 units on Iowa +20 (-110) (risk 5 to win 4.6)

Game: Air Force at B Y U (6:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Air Force +23.5 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)

Game: Colorado at Kansas State (6:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Colorado +14.5 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)

Game: Harvard at Brown (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Harvard -10 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)

Game: Tennessee at Kentucky (9:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Tennessee +10 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)

Game: Eastern Carolina at U T E P (9:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Eastern Carolina +22 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)

Game: San Diego at Gonzaga (10:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 5 units on San Diego +17.5 (-110) (risk 5 to win 4.6)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 2-13-10

Jeff Benton

Saturday's Action
40 Dime: OKLAHOMA STATE



10 Dime: PORTLAND



Oklahoma State



The Big 12 conference has the biggest home/road dichotomy of any league in the country, and these two teams playing in Stillwater today fall right in line with that discrepancy. Both teams are 11-1 on their home courts, with Oklahoma State’s lone home defeat coming at the hands of Texas (72-60 back on Feb. 1, the Cowboys’ most recent home game). Sandwiched around that loss to Texas were a pair of road defeats at Missouri and Texas Tech, meaning the Cowboys come into this game in an 0-3 SU and ATS slump.



However, if you eliminate the Texas loss – by the way, Oklahoma State was a 2½-point underdog in that game, so it wasn’t a “bad” loss or anything – the Cowboys have won their other 11 games at Gallagher Iba Arena by nearly 20 points per game (79.6-60). That includes a trio of comfortable Big 12 home wins and covers over Texas Tech (81-52), Colorado (90-78) and Texas A&M (76-69). Go back to last season and Oklahoma State is an impressive 16-1 SU and 8-2-1 ATS in lined games on its home floor, including 8-1 in Big 12 home games (7-2 ATS).



The last team other than Texas to win in Stillwater? Indeed, it was Oklahoma last Jan. 26 (an 89-81 victory). But remember: The Sooners, with Blake Griffin leading the way, were a Top 10 squad last year (one that made it to the Elite Eight of the NCAAs). This year, Oklahoma is just 13-10 overall, including 2-9 SU and 3-8 ATS away from Norman (1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS in true road games).



The Sooners have hit the highway four times in Big 12 play and were competitive only once (65-62 loss at Texas A&M as a 7½-point underdog). Aside from that, Oklahoma has lost at Baylor 91-60, at Texas Tech 75-65 and at Nebraska 63-46. Throw in a 14-point loss at Gonzaga, and it’s clear that OU is a terrible traveler.



To further hammer home the home-road angle, consider that Oklahoma State allows just 62.8 ppg at home (including the Texas loss) and holds opponents to 40.4 percent shooting. The Sooners give up 76 ppg on the road and allow 46.7 percent shooting (39 percent from three-point land). And the Cowboys average 37 rebounds per contest at home; the Sooners average 30.3.



Finally, get a load of some of these pointspread trends: Oklahoma, in addition to failing to cash in four of its last five games overall, is 15-34-3 ATS in its last 52 road games and a lengthy 23-49-3 ATS in its last 75 road games against teams that have a winning home record. Meanwhile, the Cowboys are on ATS runs of 20-8-1 overall, 20-6-2 at home, 13-6 in conference, 17-8-1 against opponents with a winning overall record and a perfect 8-0 when playing at home against opponents that have a losing road mark.



Throw in the fact this is a double-revenge situation for Oklahoma State – which not only is seeking payback for last year’s home loss to the Sooners but also for letting one get away at Oklahoma a month ago when they lost 62-57 in overtime, shooting a miserable 27.5 percent for the game – and everything about this matchup screams Cowboys. (And because OSU is coming off three straight losses and non-covers, we’re getting value in the line, too!)





Portland



Portland is a very, very underrated team, a team that gets lost in the West Coast Conference shadow of Gonzaga and tonight’s opponent, St. Mary’s. But this isn’t so much a play on the Pilots as it is a play against St. Mary’s, which is likely to come into this contest still hung over after yet another loss to Gonzaga on Thursday.



The Gaels have been fighting an uphill battle against Gonzaga for several years now, and just when it looked like they might FINALLY get over the hump the other night, they fell completely apart once again. St. Mary’s jumped on Gonzaga quickly (12-5 lead) and even though the Bulldogs battled back and hit a three-pointer at the halftime buzzer to take a three-point lead, it was still a ballgame. But the Gaels couldn’t hold onto the ball (17 turnovers that lead to 22 Gonzaga points), and they got outscored 41-25 in the final 20 minutes.



That complete second-half meltdown has me believing the Gaels (who had won their first seven true road games) are not going to be right mentally for tonight. After all, it was just a month ago that Gonzaga won on St. Mary’s home court, and 48 hours later the Gaels turned around and hosted Portland, and though they rallied for a 77-72 win, it wasn’t easy (and they failed to cash as an eight-point favorite). Also, look at last year when St. Mary’s went 10-4 in the West Coast Conference, but two of those losses came in back to back road games at Gonzaga and (you guessed it!) Portland – and the Gaels followed up that loss at Gonzaga with an ugly 18-point loss to the Pilots. As is the case tonight, only 48 hours separated those two games.



Portland comes into this game having won six of its nine conference games (in addition to the five-point loss at St. Mary’s, the Pilots fell twice to Gonzaga, including a three-point home defeat), and it is 6-2 SU and 6-1-1 ATS in its last eight contests, including five double-digit wins and a nine-point road victory. The Pilots are also 4-1-1 ATS in their last six home games and 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 Saturday contests, while St. Mary’s has failed to cover in four of its last five against teams that have a winning record and four of its last five when coming off a non-cover. Finally, the favorite has covered in 14 of the last 19 meetings between these teams.



Lay the small price and don’t be surprised if this is another blowout similar to last year when these foes met in Portland and the Pilots rolled 84-66.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 2-13-10

ASA

6* is Georgia on revenge game

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 2-13-10

Craig Davis

50 Dime

TULSA

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 2-13-10

Trent Citron

10 units Temple
10 units UNLV
8 units Utah State
6 units South Carolina
6 units Nebraska
6 units Colorado
4 units Xavier
4 units Auburn
4 units Washington
3 units Virginia
3 units New Mexico

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 2-13-10

Mike Hook | CBB Sides Sat, 02/13/10 - 10:00 PM *†
triple-dime bet 641 Loyola Mary 5.0 (-120) BetUS vs 642 San Francisco
Analysis: LOYOLA MARYMOUNT +5 San Francisco (3 UNITS).....No joke, the wrong team is favored here. I know that seems hard to believe, considering San Francisco is the home team and they are coming off a 30 point win over Pepperdine. I also realize that San Francisco has recently beaten Gonzaga at home, AND they've already beaten LMU in LMU's home gym. How in the world could i back LMU here? Simple, this line is flat too low, and i'll explain.

LMU is a tough team for oddsmakers to figure out. That's because they have been killed by injuries so often this season. There is one constant though, and that's when this team is healthy they play great basketball together. Proof of that is up and down the card this year, notably on the road against Notre Dame, where they beat the Irish OUTRIGHT as 20 point underdogs. LMU has also beaten USC OUTRIGHT as a double digit underdog. Both of these games came when this team was healthy. As you can best guess, LMU is nearly 100% healthy as they finish their season right now. LMU can cause havoc in the upcoming WCC conference tournament with the way they are playing right now, and San Francisco will realize this tonight.

Again, San Francisco has been playing great ball of late. I cant say enough about their win against Gonzaga. That was a great win for this team, their signature win of the season. In their last game, they had some revenge against Pepperdine, and beat them by 30 points. That win looked great, but this Pepperdine has thrown in the towel. One of my only regrets the other day was not taking Pepperdine minus the points in that game. I believe San Francisco has now completely peaked, and they will have a letdown tonight. The difference between Pepperdine and LMU right now is severe. You also must realize right now that anyone backing San Francisco is paying a huge premium in backing this team right now. Everyone knows about their Gonzaga win, so everyone thinks this is now the "it" team on the West Coast. Now, San Francisco is everyone's sleeper pick in the west. Trust me, oddsmakers know this, and they will take advantage of this. Proof of exactly this is today's line. This line is too low, and the public is going to get worked over backing San Francisco tonight. Not us...

These two teams have already clashed this year. 3 things stand out in that game on January 14th. First and foremost, San Francisco won that game 70-67. The stud forward Drew Vinney didn't play for LMU in that game. Vinney is only the leading scorer and rebounder for LMU. Vinney not playing in that game was a huge blow for LMU, and it showed throughout in the game. Lastly, San Francisco shot 22 more free throws that LMU in that contest. Yes, 22 more free throws for the visiting team. Earlier this season i played off that exact stat, and have done well in San Francisco games. I'm telling you right now, things will be completely different tonight. San Francisco is in for a fight of a game, as LMU wants that 4th spot that San Francisco currently holds in conference play. LMU is on revenge, and fully healthy. They will be ready to go tonight, and i fully expect LMU to play well tonight in a role they relish.

I love everything about this game, from the opening number to the current betting action. I know this game looks a bit sketchy, but oddsmakers set this line for a reason. We must take advantage on the uneducated public that is blindly backing San Francisco in the ABSOLUTE worst spot. Games like this is exactly why we are so good at cashing tickets. We do our homework, and look at every single possible angle heading into the game. I'm damn confident we cash this ticket tonight, so let's hit the books hard. LOYOLA MARYMOUNT +5 is our 3 UNIT GAME of the DAY!

As always, please check out my thread in the pregame forums. I have other plays and leans listed there, and even a Slam Dunk prop wager. Let's have a great night as we head into Valentine's Day!

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 2-13-10

RAS


Wyoming un 140.5

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 2-13-10

RAS


Alabama un 139

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 2-13-10

Jim Feist

SEC goy is Arkansas +

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 2-13-10

Gregg Price

10* Drake - This is our game of the week. We will back Dake here. These guys lost at home to these guys by 14, now they are on the road only getting 1.5? They are pretty evenily matched but we like the revenege factor here. This is normally a team that has a winning record, but now they need to start getting some W's if they want to get back to .500. Drake gets the road win.

5* St. Bony - We are going to take the home dog here. We think Richmond is going to let down after a big road win at R.I. Richmond may be on the verge of 20 wins, but only have 5 road wins and St. Bony is a strong 8-2 and this is a good spot to take them.

5* Old Dom - This is our CAA burial of the day. G.M. pissed all over these guys 6 weeks ago and both are 11-3 in the conference, so why in the world is this number so large?? G.M. is coming off a huge come from behind win over VCU, but today they are going to get pounded.


4* Xavier - The wrong team is favored here. Xavier truely is the better team, as they are stronger in almost every statistical category. But Florida is a public team, so the line will always be inflated. You can watch your cash come in on ESPN so grab the points.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 2-13-10

vegas-runner | CBB Sides Sat, 02/13/10 - 9:00 PM double-dime bet 636 Portland -1.5 (-110) BetUS vs 635 St. Mary's (Cal.) Analysis: CBB 2* PERSONAL PLAY ** (Late Confirmation)

vegas-runner | CBB Sides Sat, 02/13/10 - 8:00 PM double-dime bet 613 Denver 5.5 (-110) Bodog vs 614 N. Texas Analysis CBB 2* LATE STEAM **

vegas-runner | CBB Sides Sat, 02/13/10 - 4:00 PM
triple-dime bet 556 Old Dominion -14.0 (-110) BetUS vs 555 George Mason Analysis: *** CBB 3* TRUE STEAM BOMB **

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 2-13-10

This is Sal Devito. I'm playing on the San Diego State Aztecs minus the points over the UNLV Running Rebels. We have an opening line of -3.5. For my personal guarantee I will use San Diego -7 or greater here. In MWC action UNLV comes into todays game boasting a 19-7 Record and 8-1 ATS record their L9. Pretty Impressive so far, however they dropped their last game to New Mexico 66-76 at home on 2/10. SDSU comes in 17-7 on the year with an awesome 11-1 home court SU record and is 4-1 ATS their L5. They won in Blowout fashion in their last game against Wyoming 99-57. Earlier this year UNLV was victorious at home vs SDSU winning 76-66. This game is very important for both teams and San Diego would love nothing more than to knock UNLV down a few notches. SDSU is 1 game behind UNLV and will use this opportunity to even the score AND tie the Rebels in the standings. Aztecs coach Steve Fisher was quoted as saying "We're now 1 game behind so if we win this game, it will put us in a dead heat draw for that next spot, with 2 teams still ahead of us and UNLV is saying we're one game out of first place, so we have to win at San Diego State." San Diego is playing great ball right now and has been looking forward to this game for some time. The Coach has told his players how important this game is and my contacts have told me that this is true. SDSU is 3-0 ATS this February, and 4-0 ATS TY when avenging a road loss. SDSU is also 5-1 TY after scoring 80+ points previously. Look for San Diego to Pay Back the Rebels in a BLOWOUT! Best of Luck - Sal Devito

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 2-13-10

STAN SHARP
triple-dime bet 634 Utah 3.5 (-110) BetUS vs 633 New Mexico
Analysis: Stan is Betting UTAH. Stan notes that this is a great spot for the Home team as Utah is home coming off a Win catching New Mexico coming off a major revenge game in Vegas on Wednesday Night. This is a great spot to fade New Mexico as they are coming that huge game with UNLV and already beat Utah earlier in the year. This time it's Utah getting the sweet taste of revenge. UTAH wins OUTRIGHT! TAKE UTAH aŠs STAN'S UNDERDOG GAME OF THE YEAR and make them a TRIPLE DIME PLAY.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 2-13-10

Dave Malinksy Saturday
Saturday: Afternoon 6* and 5* Plays key the NCAA Ticket

It is going to be another busy Saturday as the Basketball momentum continues to build, and it will be a case of Quality and Quantity - an explosive afternoon starts with the Maryland/Duke showdown making our ticket, then a game that will carry our Top 6* Rating (369-256-12), and a 5* that goes at 4:00 Eastern. We also have one on the house, as we break down Iowa/Purdue for free below, and there are Totals and Night plays yet to come.

4* #513 MARYLAND over DUKE ( L )

We do not have to spend too much time going into why a Gary Williams team will almost always fit under our “Tough Out” umbrella – he brings in players that compete in a manner that fits his own persona, and it has led us to cash a lot of road underdog tickets through the years. And with Greivis Vasquez on the court the Terrapins have been simply sparkling in this role, on a 14-5-1 ATS run as A.C.C. road dogs since the middle of his FR season, a season that culminated with the outright upset of Duke on this court in the final road game (Vasquez had 13 points and 12 assists). But it is not that game that creates the spark here, it is instead the dismal 85-44 loss suffered on this court LY, one of the worst losses every for a Williams team, and as poorly of a game as Vasquez has played (four points on 2-10 shooting, four turnovers, one assist). Now with that major winter storm enabling Maryland to put the full focus on this game, a high energy level is brought to a setting that makes it awfully difficult for Duke to build any kind of margin.While Maryland was getting Wednesday off, Duke was getting a tough 64-54 grinder of a win at North Carolina in a game that was much closer than the final score shows. Jon Scheyer and Kyle Singler had to go the full 40 minutes that night, while Nolan Smith played 39, and the potential loss of Lance Thomas for today makes it an even more fragile rotation (Thomas has not practiced since that game, and even if he does go here will not be 100 percent). This is not a typical Duke team that wears you down with that deep stock of talent - Mike Krzyzewski has only had seven players going more than 10 minutes per game in A.C.C. action, with only Mason Plumlee and Brian Zoubek seeing steady time off of the bench, and neither of those two are the ideal players to replace Smith against the quickness and athleticism that Maryland brings to the table.The minutes are already taking a toll on Scheyer and Singler, who are averaging exhausting counts of 38.5 and 38.0 in A.C.C. action. Scheyer is shooting just 40.9 percent, with the burden of having to play the point catching up to him, while Singler is only at 40.0. You do not get fresher at this time of the season, especially vs. this class of competition, and while they may have the basketball savvy to gut out a win this afternoon, asking for this level of margin is way too much.

6* #518 BAYLOR over MISSOURI ( L )

The last time these two met there was a lot at stake – the Big 12 tourney championship, and a 6* for us. And it was never in doubt, with the Missouri presses able to wear out a Baylor team that simply had nothing left in the tank after beating Nebraska, Kansas and Texas the previous three days. But oh how the setting changes for this one. Now the Bears are the better team, playing with a special chip on their shoulder to avenge that title tilt defeat, and the matchups are in place for something special.Missouri has been a meal ticket for us the past two seasons, as we continue to see that it is more than just those frenetic presses from Mike Anderson’s team, but also some savvy basketball at the offensive end. But there is a major difference this time – having lost NBA draft choices DeMarre Carroll and Leo Lyons up front, and sharp-shooter Matt Lawrence, there is a real problem in converting those turnovers into points. A team that led the nation in assists per game LY, and was second in assist to TO ratio, is finding points hard to come by no matter how many passes they throw because the shooters and finishers are not there. The Tigers are shooting just 40.0 percent in Big 12 play, and of the eight players going at least 15 minutes per game in conference action, four are shooting 35.6 percent or less. That is ugly, and it does not turn around against that talented and deep Baylor front-court, led by Epke Udoh and his 97 blocked shots. When Missouri is forced to run half-court sets, we expect the Baylor defense to be a dominating presence, and the battle of the boards should be no contest, with the Bears at +5.3 in league play and the Tigers -4.7.So can Baylor avoid the TO’s that create so much havoc in Missouri games? The pieces are there. While floor leader Tweety Carter was one of many exhausted Bears in LY’s championship tilt, he has been on the court for many successes against Anderson’s schemes, like a 97-83 rout in Columbia in his FR season, and he and LaceDarius Dunn saw a lot of time together in the back-court in the 100-89 win here two years ago. As a team they are playing at a high level of confidence on this court and the results have been dominating – since January 1st they have routed Oklahoma (91-60), Massachusetts (71-45), Oklahoma State (83-70) and Iowa State (84-63), while losing at the gun to Kansas State in a game in which they competed tenaciously. There is the size, depth and athleticism to not only cope with the Tiger presses but to actually attack them and go after easy baskets, with that size advantage inside leading to easy finishes, and they are also a difficult team to chase down from behind with that 77.1 percent free throw accuracy in Big 12 games, including 85.9 from Carter and Dunn, who will have the ball in their hands at crunch time.Missouri has only gone out as road underdogs twice this season, taking an 0-2 collar, and in the only Big 12 step-up the Tigers were beaten much worse than the 84-65 final score at Kansas, getting crushed 53-28 on the boards. Now they are the ones with the physical issues, with Zaire Taylor trying to fight off a stomach virus; J. T. Tiller playing with a broken nose; and Keith Ramsay not 100 percent because of a sprained ankle. This time they are the ones running out of gas.

5* #549 ARKANSAS over ALABAMA

Here is a line range that you do not see often – a team with a 6-3 record leading the S.E.C. West vs. one that is 3-7 and only one ladder rung out of last place taking far more than the value of the court, and the team with the far better conference record also winning the first meeting b y a dozen. So how does this happen? Largely because the markets still refuse to deal with Arkansas properly. It was so bad back in November that John Pelphrey played several games with only six scholarship players available, and there were hideous home losses to Morgan State, East Tennessee State and South Alabama, as well as drubbings at Louisville by 30 and Oklahoma by 20. But those games simply do not carry any real meaning going forward. Once Courtney Fortson became eligible on January 1st it marked the start of a new season, and those results are the only ones that really count at this juncture.While Fortney’s 20.0 ppg in S.E.C. play obviously stands out, he should be considered more of the final piece to the puzzle than necessarily the dominant piece – Marshawn Powell (14.8), Mike Washington (12.1) and Rotnei Clarke (11.9) are also averaging double figures in conference action, and there are five players averaging at least 9.0 minutes per league game off the bench. It means confidence, talent and depth are on hand, and having won outright at Georgia and Mississippi as part of a current 5-0 run, they certainly do not take the court as though they are the underdogs in this matchup.While Arkansas continues to surge, not much is going to come easily for Alabama. The Crimson Tide have been fortunate to draw L.S.U. twice already, but outside of handling the out-manned Tigers they are 1-7 in all other conference games, with that win coming by just five points. In losing four straight the offensive issues have come front and center, with few reliable scoring options and precious little ability to drive the ball to the basket – through those first 10 S.E.C. games their opponents have made more free throws (148 of 226) than the Tide have attempted (94-140). Anthony Grant does not have the pieces yet to press the length of the floor the way he would like to, forcing only 12.2 TO’s per game in league play, and his team has yet to score more than 66 points vs. an S.E.C. opponent. They are seriously challenged to merely win here, much less get the kind of major margin that is being called for.

4* #565 IOWA over PURDUE

To get the kind of margin being called for here, especially at the anticipated tempo, it is going to require a huge degree of dominance by Purdue. The Boilermakers have not won a Big 10 game by more than 20 points, and the Hawkeyes have not lost a conference affair by that plateau. And under today’s circumstances that degree of dominance would take a huge roll of the dice.For Purdue the eyes have been on March since the start of the season, and as such Matt Painter knows that he can not get the full effort from his team every time they take the court – that would have them far short of energy when it is going to be needed most. It means picking some spots to pull back the reins a little, and this is a classic setting for that. Two games back there was that draining 78-75 win at Indiana that was not determined until the final possession, and following that was the showdown win at Michigan State earlier this week. Immediately on deck are games against Ohio State and Illinois, both currently a half game ahead of them for first place in the Big 10 standings. So this is the prime spot for Painter to be content with merely grinding out a win and moving forward, not looking to extend the energy more than is necessary.Not that this margin would have been available anyway. Iowa may lack big-time talent but the Hawkeyes are playing with a lot of chemistry right now, with three outright underdog wins in their current 6-2 ATS run, and note that one of those spread failures came by a half point. No team has scored more than 70 points against them in that run, and they also won the battle of the boards by a +3. Considering that they played Ohio State twice, Illinois and Michigan State in that span, it speaks volumes. In whipping Northwestern in double figures in their last outing we saw excellent team basketball, with four players scoring at least 13 points in an offense than had more than twice as many assists (18) as turnovers (8), and they will also approach this one with some confidence, having led in the second half of that earlier 67-56 home loss to the Boilermakers. Look for a similar tempo here, and a similar result.

4* #520 OKLAHOMA STATE/OKLAHOMA Over ( W )

Both of these teams love to push the tempo, with athletes that can run the open floor to convert, and plenty of shooters that can take advantage of scramble situations to hit open-court triples. Neither has much of a defensive presence at all around the basket. So how do we explain only 119 points being scored between these two despite playing 45 minutes in the first “Bedlam” go-round in Norman? It was a spin of the roulette wheel. The two teams combined to shoot an abysmal 41-127 from the field, including 11-46 from beyond the arc, and even at the free throw line it was a ridiculous 26-46. The energy was frenetic that night, but the shooting was disastrous. Of the 15 players that took shots that night, only Cade Davis (4-8) managed to reach 50 percent.Fast forward to the rematch and it is an entirely different setting. The first time around both were playing for the second time in three days, and perhaps that took a toll on the legs of the shooters. But now each is only playing for the third time in the month of February, and the host Cowboys have had a full week to prepare, off of their 19-69 in the first go-round. It means not only the usual high level of energy between these two, but also much better execution in all offensive areas, particularly the free throw shooting for teams that are hitting 73.7 (Oklahoma) and 71.7 (State) for the full season.

4* #611 WASHINGTON over STANFORD

Washington is bigger, more athletic, more talented and deeper than
Stanford, and it showed in that earlier 94-61 home domination. The
Huskies won the battle of the boards by 10, and had 18 more bench
points, and note that that included Andrew Zimmerman and Gabriel
Harris still in uniform for the Cardinal (36 floor minutes). They are
now gone, joining Andrew Owens and Andy Brown and leaving Johnny
Dawkins with a paper-thin rotation. So now that we are deeper into
the season, and this is a second game in three days in which depth
and energy become bigger factors, why are the markets saying that
Stanford can shave 30 points off of that earlier defeat? It is
simple, actually, but also wrong.

Washington is 0-5 on the Pac 10 road this season. You get downgraded
when that is on your resume. But there are a lot of holdovers from a
team that won six games as a conference traveler LY, and in truth the
biggest reason for the 0-5 is that they have opened at the five
toughest venues in the league. Now they step down in class, and it
would not be a surprise to us if Lorenzo Romar?s team won each of
their last four trips. This is a team that has not played their best
basketball yet, and with the Husky starters only logging 126 minutes
on Thursday, they bring a high level of energy here.

It is a much different story for Stanford. The Cardinal starters
played 28 more floor minutes than their Washington counterparts on
Thursday, and they were hard minutes, rallying from 18 down in the
second half to stun Washington State in the late stages. Games like
that are not easy to recover from, and the fact that a team as
mediocre as the Cougars could lead here in Maples by 18 in the second
half speaks volumes. Stanford is far too reliant on Landry Fields and
Jeremy Green, who are scoring 41.1 ppg in Pac 10 play while all
others are contributing just 25.5, and each runs head-to-head into
outstanding defenders at their position tonight, part of why they
could only score a combined 24 points on 8-22 shooting in the first
go-round.

Romar has gone 3-0 SU and ATS against Dawkins, beating the
pointspread by 39 points in the process, and he is going to get more
experience on the court to start the game with JR Matthew
Bryan-Amaning starting up front instead of FR Tyreese Brashers. That
helps to sooth the nerves of playing on the road, and his Huskies
finally get that breakthrough win, in style.

4* #625 VIRGINIA over VIRGINIA TECH

It seems like Tony Bennett has been around for far longer than his
short years as a college basketball head coach, but because he
learned from such a master (his father), we were able to see the
?Tough Out? tools right from the start, and through the years we may
not have had a better Play On coach in the role of a road underdog.
Now we add the element of extreme motivation and focus for tonight,
and we get to take a favorable number in a game that can go to the
final possession.

How do Bennett?s teams hang around so well? By executing the basic
fundamentals of the game at a high level, and his own take this week
exemplifies the concept - ?In order to win, you have to eliminate
losing. And what will get you beaten? Second-chance points, silly
turnovers and giving up transition baskets.? That was in
reference to the earlier 76-71 O.T. home loss to these Hokies, when
Bennett felt that the Cavaliers flat-out gave it away after leading
62-52 with 3:44 remaining in regulation. His words - ?I thought we
played so hard, and we always talk about hard and smart together. We
were pretty solid with our decision making up until that point and
then there were some breakdowns. We could have run some clock. Jeff
(Jones) got a wide open look. He had hit one and it would have been
a time to run some clock. We left a guy unguarded in transition, two
turnovers and the out of bounds plays, fouling Delaney - there were
just some things where I thought our execution and just making some
sound decisions hurt us.?

Now Bennett and his team come in as fresh as can be this late in the
season for the rematch, with Wednesday?s postponement vs. Maryland
bringing some key time off, and also an ability to begin putting this
game plan together earlier than usual. With only two O.T. losses
preventing the Cavaliers from being 8-1 in the A.C.C., and with easy
road wins at North Carolina and N. C. State helping to build
confidence, we can put them right in this one to the final buzzer to
win outright, with the spread offered a solid cushion. With only
seven players in the rotation, and with Malcolm Delaney having to
carry far too much of a load, conference margins are not going to
come easily for the Hokies (half of their A.C.C. victories have come
by four points or less in regulation), and the fact that they are
shooting just 30.0 percent from 3-point range in league play makes it
hard to build a margin against a defense that will force them to take
a lot of their shots from the perimeter. Three of the last five
meetings in this bitter rivalry have gone to O.T., while another was
decided by just three points in regulation, and this is more of the
same.

4* #638 LOUISIANA TECH/HAWAII Under

The first five games between Bob Nash and Kerry Rupp in this series
have produced point counts of 125, 117, 129, 131 and 128, falling a
collective 55.5 points below the projections of the oddsmakers. But
if you think those were stodgy affairs you have not seen anything yet.

Nash has adjusted to having a depleted Hawaii roster by slowing
things down, with the result being six straight Under?s, falling 73.5
points below the projections. That became necessary with the
suspension of Dwain Williams and the loss of Bill Amis, but now they
take a hit that they could not afford to, with Jeremy Lay being lost
for the season. It forced Nash to bring three walk-ons along on this
trip to fill out the roster, and with PG Hiram Thompson, the only
ball-handling option, playing through a bad shoulder (only took one
shot in 28 minutes in that 61-51 loss to Fresno State in the last
outing), Nash knows how he must play this - "Mentally, we got to
think through the game. We can't have any breakage. I mean, we're
very thin in the backcourt, so everybody's got to be alert to help
bring the ball up the floor. We can't turn the ball over and give
them run-outs and all that kind of stuff. Everybody's got to be
alert, can't sit back on our heels and we all got to get back in
transition defense." And to make matters even worse they had to
take a four-hour bus ride to Ruston from Dallas instead of flying
because of those winter storms in the region. With another game on
deck at New Mexico State on Monday night they are not a candidate to
be chasing very hard from behind

Louisiana Tech can shut off the basket here with 6-11 Magnum Rolle
inside (54 blocked shots), but because the Bulldogs are not all that
deep (only six players averaging more than 10 minutes per game this
season), they are not adept at extending their defense to force pace.
That enables Hawaii to slow this down early, and it leads to a game
in which there is not much offensive efficiency or pace, and not much
fear at all of late-game ?scramble? points.