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Tue, 02/16/10 - 8:05 PM VR's Morning Moves | NBA Total
double-dime bet 508 OKL / 507 DAL Under 195.0 Bodog
Analysis: ** NBA "MORNING MOVES" 2* PERSONAL PLAY **
We are looking at an INFLATED Total...and the Wiseguys already went ahead and let the Books know it when they took a Position on the Under in this one...The books won't mind because they will definitely end up with Balance when the public starts betting this match-up...This is the main reason that we are getting a "Fair Line" to bet into...rather than a "True Line" which would have shut us out of any "True Value"...
Bottom Line...According to my TRUE LINE...we are getting the best of it for sure...Espeically when my Numbers show this Total should be much closer to 192, than 195...VR
3-Unit Play #503 Take Miami/Philadelphia UNDER 191
4-Unit Play #505 Take Minnesota/Detroit UNDER 198
2-Unit Play #508 Take Oklahoma City -4 ½ Over Dallas
3-Unit Play #518 Take Sacramento +5 ½ Over Boston
4-Unit Play. Take #560 Georgia Tech (-5)
2-Unit Play. Take #562 Mississippi State (+3)
1.5-Unit Play. Take #539 Wake Forest (+5.5)
1-Unit Play. Take #525 Hofstra (-3)
1-Unit Play. Take #530 South Florida (-2)
0.5-Unit Play. Take #544 VCU (-10)
0.5-Unit Play. Take #550 Drake (+1)
0.5-Unit Play. Take #524 Old Dominion (-22)
0.5-Unit Play. FIRST HALF: Take #524 Old Dominion (-11)
0.5-Unit Play. Take #554 Wisconsin-GB (-2.5)
0.5-Unit Play. Take #558 DePaul (-4)
0.5-Unit Play. Take #528 Georgia State (-4.5)
1-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #539 Wake Forest (+10.5)/Mississippi State (+8)
0.5-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #560 Georgia Tech (Pk)/Creighton (+14)
0.5-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #537 Northeastern (-4.5) /William & Mary (+7.5)
0.5-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #524 Old Dominion (-17)/VCU (-5)
0.5-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #535 Bradley (+8)/Creighton (+14)
9:29:17am 2010-02-16 554 Wisc Green Bay Under 134½
9:19:12am 2010-02-16 540 Virginia Tech Over 136½
8:47:46am 2010-02-16 556 Iowa Over 118
8:42:59am 2010-02-16 566 Murray State -25½
8:07:56am 2010-02-16 504 Philadelphia Over 189
525 Hofstra-2.5...........................1.5 units
533 Princeton -6.5........................2 units
562 Miss St +3................................1 unit
NBA Basketball
(All Basketball Plays are 1/3 of your average football wager)
Knicks +6.5 over Bulls
This matchup particularly favors the Knicks because of their high-powered offense. Although their defense is not spectacular (although they did hold Chicago to only 81 points in their last meeting), Chicago simply does not have the scoring credentials to be able to keep up with the NY attack. Chicago is arguably the most overvalued team in the NBA right now. It is shocking that they have been battling around .500 all season. The Knicks are statistically a poor road team because of their inability to defend the 3-point game, but Chicago will fail to knock them down, regardless of whether they are contested or not. Duhon historically has always been able to guard Rose fairly well and that will prevent any type of momentum offensively for the Bulls. Look for David Lee to have a very solid game also. The Knicks have a very good chance of walking away with the outright victory tonight, so be safe and take NY with the points!
College Basketball
(All Basketball Plays are 1/3 of your average football wager)
Kentucky -3 over Mississippi State
At first glance, this looks like a trap bet to take Kentucky, however if you study the matchup, there is valid reasoning behind the oddsmakers setting this line so low. The most obvious reason is that the Bulldogs beat Kentucky last year (as well as the previous 2 seasons) on Kentucky's home court. This year, each team's free throw and 3-point % and shots attempted per game are virtually similar. Obviously, Kentucky is the better basketball team and can only lose when both Cousins and Wall have a poor game. If only one of these two freshman studs have a poor game, Kentucky will still dominate you. The guard play of Mississippi State is no match for Kentucky and Cousins will see a lot of looks, especially in the second half when the Bulldogs place more emphasis on preventing the drive and denying Wall the ball. Again, it seems like a trap bet, but Kentucky will have no problem tonight and will win by a heavy margin, easily covering the spread.
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