2-19-10

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 2-19-10

RIGHT ANGLE SPORTS (RAS)
Rotation: 835
> William & Mary (+4.5) Rating: 1.00
> Game Time: 06:00pm PST
> Released at: 7:30:00am PST

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 2-19-10

VR`s Morning Moves - Friday, February 19, 2010

Report Status: FRIDAY FEB 19th, 2010
Next Report: BY 12:00pm est on SAT 2-20-10
Notes:
“MORNING MOVES” NEWSLETTER & LINE-PREDICTION for FRIDAY FEB 18th, 2010
HANDICAPPING LINE-MOVES : “MOVING on AIR…NOT MONEY ANYMORE”

Good Morning Ladies & Gentlemen…We did it again, beating the books with a “Morning Move” Personal Play…to make us “6-1” on those positions…and now “12-5” (71% ATS) Overall…
We are PERFECT (4-0) on “Morning Moves” TRUE STEAM…And today, for my Premium Subscribers…I’ve isolated an NBA 3* TRUE STEAM GAME OF THE WEEK…
We’ve had ONLY “1” NBA 3* TRUE STEAM in 2010 (Winner)…So you can see that the bet has to meet some stiff parameters before I’ll step up and fire…And for Today’s “Morning Moves”, we’ll try to move to “7-1” because I’ve Confirmed another “Personal Play”…VR

Now when the idea for creating this Newsletter was brought to me, I had 3 goals for what I wanted it to accomplish…Other than obviously passing along strong, accurate, & winning information…
I wanted to be able to help bettors build a strong foundation for their business…Meaning, I wanted to pass along all of the thing that I’ve learned from other winning sports bettors…and experiences that I’ve had, which hurt and helped me build my own business…The concepts which we’ll cover most for this to happen, will deal with “Money Management”…as well as understanding the way the market functions…So that they can eventually become more efficient sports bettors…
Second, I wanted to pass along so many of the handicapping theories and concepts that I’ve learned and acquired over the years…to help make my subscribers more efficient handicappers and get a better understanding of the factors that actually matter, when trying to determine where there is value…
Finally, I wanted to be able to offer an opportunity for my Subscribers to be able to ask ANY questions that they may have…And I mean ANY…From money management & handicapping questions…to understanding the market and my own personal experiences…Because although I want to make sure that I cover those topics that I know for certain will help you build a strong business…I also want to make sure that I cover those topics that YOU want covered…From things that interest you, to simple questions about something that you want an accurate answer for…
So please make sure that you go ahead and pass along those topic, questions, concerns, ect…Because I want to make sure that you can use me to be that source which you are certain will give you an accurate answer…And more importantly, one that is my honest opinion…Plus, when it’s about something that I do not believe I am the best source to give you an answer, or topic that I am not that efficient on…you can rest assured that I have enough contacts and sources in this industry that I can go to, and make sure you are receiving an accurate response…
The reason I brought this up is because one of the members of the Pregame Forum, who I can tell has a huge thirst for information and education…put up a thread and asked a question that I believe many others have…And I really felt that it’s such an important question, that I would go ahead and cover it here on a Newsletter…Because it has to do with the sports betting market…And since I feel there is nothing more important than understanding how this market functions, I will go ahead and give you my opinion and what I know to actually be fact…
The question this gentleman had, was this…Since the sports books claim that their ultimate goal is to try and entice “split” action/money on each side & total…so they can retrieve the “VIG” without any risk…then why do we see almost the EXACT same line at every sports book for a particular side and total, especially off-shore…And more importantly, why don’t we see each book adjust their lines based on what is being bet into that particular sports book…
Which makes sense, because we don’t expect that EVERY book has the exact same amount of money bet on each side and total…as the next book…That just isn‘t possible…And he is absolutely correct, so let me tell you what I know…Because as a forum “Runner”, who wagered “steam” for different Betting Syndicates for a very long time…Using local books when I lived on the east coast…and eventually coming out here to Vegas, where I then did 70% of my wagering through books on the Strip…I can tell you that it wasn’t always this way…In fact, this is what changed the sports betting market forever…Let me explain…
Prior to the internet…most books got their opening lines one way or another…From city newspapers to line-services…The smaller books simply used the lines from their city paper, and adjusted sometimes for their home teams, knowing their clients would come in on that side…And they would then adjust if they were getting a lot of money wagered on the same team or total…Until finally, they were infiltrated by someone like myself, who moved “steam” and beat them enough…that they finally used us as their primary line-service, moving the lines on games we bet…to stop other Wiseguys from betting into them and also to try and entice the betting public to go the other way so they can try and balance their books…Or they simply dropped us and continued using paper lines and remaining small…
Bigger bookmaking operations would almost all use a line-service…And depending on how much you were willing to spend, they would give you an opening line…then each day update it, usually based on what the Startdust Sportsbook had…And for those that were very big, and knew they were infiltrated by Betting Syndicates…they would actually receive phone-calls from the line-service which gave them as close to up-to-the-minute line moves as you can have…Keep in mind, these line-services had to see a place like the Stardust, as well as another book or 2 move their lines…before they realized it was a “Syndicate Play”…Then they would have to call you and give you the move…
Almost always, if you had a Wiseguy betting into your book…that received the “Buy-Order” quick enough…the line-service was never able to give you the adjustment quick enough to stop them from betting into you…And this is why for the bigger books, we became an asset more than a liability…
So because of this, you had a wide range of lines from bookmaker to bookmaker…And even here in Vegas, the competition then was who would put out the first line (Stardust) and who would be willing to also put out their own line…Meaning, have an opinion of your own…Because back then, the way we worked was simple…I would be stationed at the Startdust at 5:00pm est on Sunday evening, and based on what number I drew from the “lottery”…I would then get in lne at one of the many betting windows…And at 5:30, the lines would go up for the next week’s games…and based on our instructions we would be…And this would also go on daily at around 7:30am for weekday sports…
Anyway, while I was at the Stardust…another one of our “runners” was at the Hilton or Bally’s…And they would try and get their lines up within 30min of when the Stardust opened up…Which is why many times, we would wait before tipping our hand on the positions we were looking for…Well at those other books, their odds maker also had an opinion…And many times, the Stardust would bring our TEAM A -11 and the Hilton would bring our TEAM A at -14...And considering where the Outfit cappers thought the line should be, we would take the points or lay them at the book that benefited us most…And on those games that we didn’t have an opinion, we would simply use these inefficiencies to try and “middle” the game…Eventually, the way we bet would force the adjustment because they knew we won more than we lost…And within hours, the lines on the Strip would all look similar…Which is what you would then see in your city paper…
So back then, the only way that most books would move their lines…was when actual “MONEY” was bet into them…And not change a line simply because another book did so…Especially since back then, they wouldn’t work together much and didn’t know a side or total was getting “steamed” anyway…But as the books started realizing that these Betting Syndicates were taking all of the profit’s the book was making from squares…this had to change…And they began sharing that information and adjusting their lines, because let’s face it…if a casino had their way, they would much prefer to put slot machines in that space than a sports book…Which ultimately brings in less profit than any other type gaming on their floor…But it’s a courtesy to their guests, who may win $10,000 playing craps…and then want to bet it on a game...These were the kind of clients they wanted, not us…
So the books started sharing info…And that’s about the time the internet made doing this very simple…Now the books were able to move their lines on “AIR”…without booking a single penny…What they do is see that a sharp book has adjusted their line…and then they do the same in an attempt to stop the Betting Syndicates from getting down…Believe it or not, that’s the money that the books worry about the most…not the public money because they know that the betting public doesn’t have the discipline needed when it comes to money management to beat them over time…And their 11 to win 10 odds is enough of an edge….
Now obviously there are times that the betting public is so one-sided on a game, that the books will be forced to adjust…But it’s on those games that we tend to see a ½ to 1pt difference from one book to the other…The internet changed the game forever, and this market is so different now but still very inefficient…But with that said, these books are now all simply looking at a screen and when a sharp book moves their line…they go ahead and do the same…Sad but true…And that’s moving on “Air”…
Finally, another reason we see this is because believe it or not…there are only a handful of actual licensees’ out there…But there are 100’s of books…What many don’t know is that they are all simply a by-product of the main sports book or company…Meaning, ABC Inc has the license, and they put up 20 sports books with different names…But in essence, you are really betting into the same book…regardless which one you happen to be using…
Now I will most likely dig deeper into this subject, because there is a lot that will explain how this market works…And I also want to explain the many ways that the Betting Syndicates and Pro Bettors are able to take advantage of it…Because from my experience, they are always a few steps ahead of the sports books…
Thanks again for all your support, and best of luck…Vegas-Runner

LINE-PREDICTIONS :
1.) 821/822 OVER 218.5 UTAH/GST
This is one of those Totals, that I can just feel is going to move upwards…I think it’s the ex-bookmakers’ instinct, or the fact that I’ve looked at lines every single day for the last 20+ yrs…But regardless, I think that the market will be forced to adjust because this will be an extremely 1-sided bet total…Only if the Wiseguys step in and go Under, will we see this move the other way…But so far, I have not heard that anyone is looking to do this…VR
2.) 833/834 OVER 113 OLD/NIOWA
This is a position that I know the Betting Syndicates will be taking, although I haven’t been able to Confirm if it’s an actual position they want to take…or simply a case of getting ahead of the market, which is definitely going to be betting on the Over…Some books opened as low as 111, while other at 112...But I’ve been told that even at the initial adjustment of 113...the “buy-order” will have them going over again…which should cause a much bigger adjustment this time around…VR



Fri, 02/19/10 - 8:05 PM VR's Morning Moves | NBA Sides
double-dime bet 816 NJN 2.5 (-110) Bodog vs 815 TOR
Analysis: ** NBA "MORNING MOVES" 2* PERSONAL PLAY **
This is one of those spots where the oddsmakers just couldn't adjust for the injury to Bosh enough, because the Raptors are playing the Nets...And the fact the betting public will be backing tthe Raptors regardless means they had no reason to...The lack of adjustment has gotten the Wiseguys to jump on the Nets, and accoording to my numbers, they are definitely getting value...So let's see if we can go to "7-1" on Personal Plays by grabbing the Home Dog to...VR

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 2-19-10

DOC SPORTS NBA

GOOD LUCK!

5-Unit NBA Game of the Week #804 Take Charlotte +4 1/2 Over Cleveland
3-Unit Play #808 Take Detroit ‘pick’ over Milwaukee
3-Unit Play #610 Take Orlando -6 ½ Over Dallas
4-Unit Play #815 Take Toronto -2 Over New Jersey

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 2-19-10

Craig Davis

Friday's Lineup


20 Dime – ODU-Northern Iowa UNDER



20 Dime – BOBCATS



20 Dime – HORNETS



I will be back by 4:00 pm with my analysis.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 2-19-10

Fargo


Bobcats 10*
Magic 9*
Trail Blazers 9*

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 2-19-10

TOM STRYKER
3*orlando

[Hornetsnest]

Re: 2-19-10

YOURPROLOCKS

30 Dime Orlando Magic

[Hornetsnest]

Re: 2-19-10

FIREMAN
Diceituponline CBB Play

Columbia -1 = 10 Dimes

[Hornetsnest]

Re: 2-19-10

OutlawSportsAdvisors

Nuggets -5.5

[Hornetsnest]

Re: 2-19-10

CapTheTrap

5* Bobcats +4
3* Dartmouth +1
2* Old Dominion +3

[Hornetsnest]

Re: 2-19-10

JOHNNY GUILD
Friday, February 19th, 2010 8:00 PM EST.

Dallas Mavericks (33-21) at Orlando Magic (37-18)

Dallas is just 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games, 1-4 ATS in its last 5 on the road. Look for Orlando to play tough defense tonight in their house. Take the hot Magic to win the first meeting of this season against the Mavericks. Orlando is 21-5 at home this season.

Orlando Magic -6

Friday, February 19th, 2010 (Eastern Time)
Time Selections 7:00 PM

Northern Iowa Panthers -3

[Hornetsnest]

Re: 2-19-10

THE EDGE

NBA
3* Over Utah

NCAA
3* Northern Iowa

[Hornetsnest]

Re: 2-19-10

IGZ1 SPORTS

NBA
4* San Antonio -3 (-110)
3* Cleveland -4 (-110)

CBB
3* Northern Iowa -3 (-110)

[Hornetsnest]

Re: 2-19-10

HOT SHOT SPORTS

5* GOM - Denver (6)
3* San Antono (3.5)
3* Utah (6.5)

[Hornetsnest]

Re: 2-19-10

CAPPERS ACCESS

Magic
Mavericks