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Re: 2-21-10
Cal Sports
4 Nuggets
3 Dayton
3 Arizona State
Cal Sports
4 Nuggets
3 Dayton
3 Arizona State
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Re: 2-21-10
Marc Lawrence
Pittsburgh +2
When we last saw Villanova, they were getting ambushed at home by UConn on Big Monday. Things won’t get any easier this afternoon for Jay Wright’s 3rd-ranked Wildcats as they take to the Big East highway for a matchup with revenge-minded Pitt. The top-seeded Panthers were one win away from a trip to last year’s Final Four before they ran into the Wildcats in the regional finals, dropping a 78-76 heartbreaker. There’s more than one way to skin a Wildcat and our PLAYBOOK database provides plenty of options. For starters, the boys from Philly have dropped their last six SU and their last eight ATS in this building. Jamie Dixon’s Panthers also prowl with a solid 10-4 ATS mark with tourney revenge, including 5-1 ATS at home. They are also 9-0 SU and ATS as a conference pick or dog in games off a SU and ATS win. Despite losing more games this season (6) than they did all of last year (5), the Panthers have only dropped one game at the Petersen Events Center. That makes 35 of 36 SU wins at home. Sweet revenge for the Panthers. We recommend a 4-unit play on Pittsburgh.Comment
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Re: 2-21-10
Jeff Benton
Sunday's Action ...
40 Dime: DUKE
Duke
Forget about the fact these teams have virtually the same record, with Duke at 22-4 and Virginia Tech at 21-4. Those won-loss marks could not possibly be more misleading. Because while the Blue Devils were playing non-conference opponents like Arizona State, UConn, Wisconsin, Gonzaga, St. John’s and Georgetown, Virginia Tech was fattening up against the likes of Brown, NC-Greensboro, Campbell, Delaware, VMI, Charleston Southern, Longwood, North Carolina Central and Maryland-Baltimore City.
The best non-conference opponent on the Hokies’ schedule? That would be Temple, and Va-Tech lost 61-50 as a 4½-point neutral-site underdog. The only non-conference opponents from power conferences that the Hokies faced were Iowa, Georgia, Penn State and Seton Hall. Yes, Va-Tech won all four games (by an average of just 7.3 points). But do you know the combined in-conference record of those four teams? How about 13-38!
Put it another way: Duke is 22-4 and ranked sixth in the country. Virginia Tech is 21-4 and hasn’t been ranked all season long. You know why? Because the Hokies have one of the worst schedule strengths of any team in the country – it’s why they’re on the NCAA Tournament bubble despite their 21-4 record.
Back to Duke: Not only have they faced a MUCH tougher slate, but the Blue Devils have annihilated every single opponent that’s come into their gym. We’re talking 14 wins in 14 tries, with 13 of those victories being by double digits (the only exception was a nine-point victory over St. John’s). Duke has played six ACC home games so far – five versus teams that are or were ranked in the Top 25 – and those six wins were by 14, 19, 20, 20, 21 and 21 points. Yes, the Devils covered the spread in all six games.
If that’s not enough to convince you that Virginia Tech is in BIG trouble today, this should: The Blue Devils have won the last three meetings in this series and four of the last five (all SU and ATS). That includes last year’s 25-point home win as a 17-point chalk. Duke has also cashed in five straight Sunday games (all on national TV); Va-Tech is 1-5 ATS in its last six on Sunday.
Bottom line: This is a major, major mismatch. And the fact is, Virginia Tech – which barely eked out home wins over Virginia and Wake Forest in its last two games – has been living on borrowed time. Tonight, the Hokies will get served a huge dose of reality, as Duke – which averages 88.7 ppg on 49.3 percent shooting at home and holds visitors to 61.1 ppg on 38.9 percent shooting – posts yet another blowout win at Cameron Indoor.Comment
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Re: 2-21-10
Malinsky
4* #805 DENVER/BOSTON Under
No one plays better tactical defense than the Celtics. They are #1 by a pretty wide margin right now on our best set of ratings, allowing nearly one full point less per 100 possessions than any other team. Yet they went into the All Star break feeling that they were under-performing on that end of the court. It has led to some tactical changes, and in allowing only 84.8 points per game on 37.7 percent shooting in three games since the All Star break, the pieces are fitting together seamlessly again. So on a day in which they want to go out of their way to slow the tempo as well, that defensive resurgence helps to bring us great value for this one.Let’s let the Celtics set the tone themselves. First, from Doc Rivers - “We fought all first half trying to guard the ball. Well, we don’t do that very well and that’s been proven through the year. So, the next step, if you don’t guard the ball well, the next guy has to be there every time a guy’s beat.’’ On to Rajon Rondo - “I think we’re a better help team now. We’re conscious of it. Doc has been drilling it night in, night out, telling us we have to be a better help team. And on the ball defensively, we just have to take a stand.’’ And Kevin Garnett - “The key to us has been the communication. It hasn’t been this constant. It hasn’t been this loud … I can definitely say it’s been different from January, December, November.’’Now on to today’s matchup. Neither team shows up as the pinnacle of freshness, with Boston in the fourth road game in six days since the All Star break, and Denver only getting one day to turn around after that draining trip through Cleveland and Washington, games in which the starters had to toil a combined 365 minutes. That leaves the Nuggets hard pressed to force their preferred pace, which allows the Celtics to get this into a half-court tempo from the start. The game then becomes a grinder of an affair that looks much different from the flow that the oddsmakers have projected, with easy scoring opportunities not easy to come by
4* #819 VILLANOVA over PITTSBURGH
Once again Jamie Dixon and Pittsburgh have been awfully good for our
pockets in a Big East road underdog role this season ? the grit that
they play with in that role has now taken the count to 21-10 ATS in
the Dixon years. But now the setting shifts, and so does our call. A
team that is accustomed to taking what the opponents give them,
capitalizing on mistakes and using their physical and mental
toughness to grind out victories, now faces their worst matchup of
the season.
The Panthers have good talent, not great talent. As such, they need
to be able to find weaknesses that can be exploited. Villanova brings
none. The Wildcats are athletic, experienced, deep and talented,
while also bringing a special balance to the table. They are shooting
49.0 percent from the field in Big East play, a special number
against that level of competition; winning the battle of the boards
by +6.3 in league play; and also knocking down 75.4 percent of their
free throws. And they do not let up, with 10 players going at least
11 minutes per game, and no one needing to go 30. It starts with
Scottie Reynolds running the show, and in the savvy of Jay Wright on
the sidelines, and Wright on the court, a remarkable achievement can
be earned today ? a victory would give them a win on every
opposing Big East court in the Reynolds career. The fact that they
have not won here yet is not an indictment; there has only been on
trip to Pittsburgh in those 3+ seasons, but having handled the
Panthers by 10 at home LY, and then winning that NCAA tournament
thriller, they know that they can beat this opponent.
The biggest Pittsburgh strength is a physical half-court defense that
can frustrate many opponents into taking bad shots. The Panthers do
no extend, forcing only 129 turnovers in 13 Big East games, but
rather rely on protecting the basket. But if you do not force
turnovers, Villanova is not going to make many through that savvy
ball-handling. That makes this an entirely different matchup for
Dixon and his team, and now it is the struggles that their own
offense can have against pressing defenses that causes additional
game flow issues.
4* #827 SAINT LOUIS over MASSACHUSETTS
Earlier this week we cashed a 6* ticket with Rick Majerus and his
Billikens in a game in which they absolutely should not have been
home underdogs vs. Rhode Island. We receive that outstanding value
because the marketplace just does not ?get it? in terms of how well
Saint Louis is playing ? when you are grinding away with outstanding
fundamentals and defense, it just does not bring a lot of sex appeal.
And that is why we are offered excellent value again, as a team that
is 8-3 and fighting for the Atlantic 10 regular-season crown goes up
against a struggling and inexperienced side that just does not match
up well. Count us in again.
Through 11 conference games, only once has Saint Louis being trailing
on the scoreboard at the end of regulation play, with two of those
losses coming on the road in Overtime. It is a tribute to the
tenacious defense that the Billikens are playing, allowing just 40.1
percent shooting from the field and 25.3 from long range in A10 play,
and their solid fundamentals show in that there have only been 118
assists allowed in 470 floor minutes (there have been a total of six
O.T. periods), compared to 159 turnovers. Kwamain Mitchell is
becoming a prime go-to scorer down the stretch of close games, and
with Cody Ellis becoming a reliable #2 the confidence is there to
make things happen when needed most.
Massachusetts brings no such confidence. The Minutemen will be
starting three FR and a SO this afternoon, and that makes for most
awkward tactical matchups for a team that lacks the patience and
experience to break down this class of defense. What success they
have had has come from athleticism (they lead the A10 in offensive
rebounds), and not polish, and the rotation is further muddle by the
injury to David Gibbs, and the suspension of Javorn Fornell for this
game. They do not run their offense well (40.4 percent), and do not
pressure the ball defensively (A10 opponents are +43 in assists to
TO?s), which plays right into the hands of the Billikens here. Look
for Saint Louis to be able to force that slow and methodical pace in
this one, and to grind away an impatient opponent that will be
frustrated by those tactics.
4* #836 MICHIGAN STATE/OHIO STATE Over
Michigan State and Ohio State are near the top of the Big 10, and
like others fighting it out for the top spot they both play
outstanding defense. But there is a difference. These two are quicker
than the rest, prefer to run more, and also shoot the ball better. It
just does not get a chance to show much when games turn into
wrestling matches. But it can show now that the court opens up here
as they go head-to-head.
The scoring averages of both of these teams are not in the right
place because of the way that Big 10 games flow ? competitors at the
top like Wisconsin, Purdue and Illinois play with passion on defense
and methodically on offense, while the bottom feeders like Penn State
and Iowa go out of their way to slow things down. So when do you get
a chance to run? Check the non-conference competition. Ohio State has
played four games outside of the league vs. class opponents, North
Carolina, California, Florida State, Butler and West Virginia, and
those five games played Over at a 4-1 clip. Michigan State stepped
out against North Carolina, Texas, Florida and Gonzaga, and those
four games played 3-1 to the Over.
By having this game pushed back to Sunday, both teams come in fresh,
with the Buckeyes off since Wednesday and the Spartans off since
Tuesday. That means the kind of energy to attack aggressively, and
also the fresh legs to make jump shots. That helps this one to easily
sail past the low Total that has been set, a Total based more on how
the Big 10 as a whole plays than how these two will get after each
other.Comment
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