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Re: 10-6-08
ER Sports Playmaker:
Vikings
ER Sports Playmaker:
Vikings
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Re: 10-6-08
Bob Balfe
NFL Football
Vikings/Saints Under 46.5
Lets take it one team at a time starting with the Vikings. Minnesota has a pretty good run defense with the Williams boys in the middle and on offense Gus Frerotte is the kind of guy that can manage games, but doesn't have the ability to take over the game and light up the scoreboard when playing on the road. Minnesota wants to manage the clock keeping the Saints lethal offense off the field. Look for Peterson and Taylor to run the ball a lot tonight. New Orleans is going to without two of their top receivers tonight and the running game has yet to get going this year. Minnesota will make it hard to for the Saints to be balanced as their run defense is very good. Drew Brees is a great QB, but he stands under 6ft with a huge offensive line and a Minnesota defensive line that is just as big. Brees wont have a big target in Colston to throw the ball too and it makes a big difference when a QB cannot completely see over those trees on the line. Every MNF and Sunday Night game is going over the total with ease. This is a trend that wont continue long and this total is inflated because of how many games did go over the total. Look for a slower paced game then one would think. Take the Under.
College Football
No plays today.
Major League Baseball
Redsox -140 over Angels
Lester/LackeyComment
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Re: 10-6-08
Kevin Kavitch Overall 16-11-1 headed into Monday night's play and Tops are 3-0-0. ATS picks are 14-7-1 67% and totals have disappointed at 2-4-0.
At the heart of this play, Minnesota is better than the public thinks and at 1-3 they'll be hungry and highly motivated. They beat & outgained a good Panthers team 2 weeks ago in Frerotte's 1st start and last week outgained but lost on the road to a strong Titans team. A -3 turnover margin was the difference. That game helps us here and their stock is down because the public just sees the final score and their season record. The Saints have a high powered offense but it will be very tough to run the ball tonight. The Minny pass D has been decent and while New Orleans has the edge in that matchup, the Vikings have the ability to minimize the damage. The big matchup tho is the Vikings offence vs the Saints D. The Saints run D has been horrible and the Vikings have a real chance to control the game there which also takes the ball out of the hands of Brees. Frerotte has played well and has 2 starts under his belt now. The Saints pass D is very beatable. New Orleans won a division game last week (49ers) to move to 2-2. I like the setup as we have the team with better fundamentals, stronger motivation, and matchup advantages catching points. As a bonus, the public is on New Orleans in a big way but the line hasn't moved. Another positive indicator for the Vikings. Take Minnesota +3 for a 5* Top Play.Comment
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Re: 10-6-08
Al DeMarco
Monday's Pick
10 Dime - Vikings
I really wanted to take New Orleans tonight; tried to convince myself the Saints could win and cover this game. But everytime I was ready to pull the trigger, I kept thinking about their sieve-like defense (25 ppg yield) and numerous injuries.
Another factor: This game is important for both teams obviously, but it's really a do-or-die game for the 1-3 Vikings and their head coach Brad Childress. Win tonight and they're one game behind the division-leading 3-2 Bears, tied for second place with Green Bay. They could easily get back to .500 with a home game against Detroit next week before meeting the Bears in Chicago two weeks from now with first place at stake.
You know all about Minnesota's quarterback issues; no need to discuss them further. But this team's bigger problem has been Adrian Peterson's hamstring injury suffered in the season's second game against the Colts. In two games since against Carolina (home win) and Tennessee (road loss), the centerpiece of the Vikings offense has carried the ball a total of just 35 times. However, he now says he's back to 90-95% health and that's crucial for his team's success since Minnesota was 7-1 in games they had 30 rushing attempts last season and 1-7 when it didn't. In fact, the Vikings were 4-0 when running the ball at least 39 times in a game last year and 2-0 when they ran it at least 43 times.
A healthy Peterson combined with a dash of Chester Taylor is the key against a New Orleans defense allowing opposing backs to average 5.2 ypc through four games. And while the Saints defense suffered another blow with the loss of defensive tackle Sedric Ellis, their No. 1 pick, Minnesota starting left tackle Bryant McKinnie is returning from a league-imposed four-game suspension to share time at his position with Artis Hicks and that makes the Vikings offensive line even better.
Ellis's injury is just the latest in a long line for New Orleans this season as the offense is similarly crippled by the absence of receiver Marques Colston and tight end Jeremy Shocker. And although Deuce Mcallister had his best game since his return from last season's knee injury last week versus San Francisco, tonight he will be charging into a Minnesota defense that is bigger and better at stopping the run than the 49ers.
Neither one of these teams have been tremendous Monday night performers in the past, but as I said previously, this is a do-or-die game for the Vikings and expect them to return to the ball control style that resulted in their ground game being the league's most productive a year ago. And a strong rushing attack will eat time off the clock and keep Brees off the field longer.
New Orleans is 1-7 SU and 2-6 ATS in its last eight Monday night home outings and 5-11 versus the oddsmakers in its last 16 games when cast as a home favorite. This will be a close game, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the Vikings not only cover but win the game outright.
Taking a look at the line.... As I post this play on Sunday night, I see Minnesota at +3 almost everywhere in Vegas and offshore. No reason you shouldn't be getting at least a field goal. If by chance your book has 2 1/2, you should buy the extra 1/2 point back to +3 to insure you at least push should Minnesota lose by a field goal.
Now, do you buy up the 1/2 point from 3 to 3 1/2 to insure Minnesota wins you money even if it loses by a field goal on the field? Well, we're always trying to push the odds a little more in our favor. Thus buying the 1/2 point up to 3 1/2 is the wise investment move as well.
With that being said, don't for a minute think that I don't realize that I'm asking you to spend additional funds - over and above the purchase of this selection - to essentially buy insurance on this pick. Myself, to be honest, I feel that the breaks always even out over the course of the year and in such situations it's a 50-50 proposition. Obviously there are no guarantees in gambling, but again, when you have the chance to hedge the odds in your favor for a small cost, it's worth the investment when the number is sitting on or around 3.
One more thing.... As I noted on Saturday when releasing Denver early, don't ever discount the importance of price shopping by having numerous accounts and sources to play through. The same goes in Vegas where you're within walking distance or a short cab ride to from a 20+ sportsbooks waiting to take your action.
Fact of life is that some books always are priced higher for favorites. A pain when you're betting chalks, but great news if you're betting the dogs, right? Knowing where to play and when is often the difference between winning and losing. And in tonight's case, if you see the 3 1/2 out there - and there are a few - you take the extra hook for free if you know what I mean since we're on the dog tonight.Comment
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