3-6-10

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 3-6-10

vegas-runner | CBB Sides Sat, 03/06/10 - 2:00 PM
double-dime bet 550 Louisville 1.0 (-110) Bodog vs 549 Syracuse
Analysis:
** CBB 2* PERSONAL PLAY **


vegas-runner | CBB Sides Sat, 03/06/10 - 1:30 PM
double-dime bet 619 Southern California 2.5 (-110) Bodog vs 620 Arizona
Analysis: ** CBB 2* PERSONAL PLAY **

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 3-6-10

Billy Coleman

4* SA/Mem Un198.5
3* Hou -3.5

4* Vill -3
3* Utah +2
3* Ole Miss -1.5

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 3-6-10

Malinsky Update
4* #597 SAINT LOUIS over DAYTON

Yes, it is Senior Night for a special Dayton group, with four starters and key contributor Mickey Perry bringing a high level of emotion tonight. Yes, there is a prime revenge motive for the Flyers after losing the first go-round 68-65 on the road in Overtime. But how in the hell do you blow Saint Louis out?Consider the Reputation vs. Reality issues here. Both teams are 19-10. But it is Saint Louis that is 10-5 in the Atlantic 10, while Dayton is 8-7, and when do you ever see this kind of line when there is that distribution in the standings heading into the final conference game, especially when there are no injuries involved? We have cashed multiple tickets with Rick Majerus and his Billikens throughout A10 play, including reaching up to the 6* level against Rhode Island, and the bottom line is that the markets once again do not attach sex appeal to team’s that wind by grinding away on offense and playing tenacious defense. So we are in play again.Saint Louis is allowed just 57.7 points per game in regulation in conference play, on 41.2 percent shooting and an impressive 27.1 from 3-point range. In those 630 floor minutes (there were six O.T. periods) they have allowed only 154 assists, while forcing 205 turnovers. Meanwhile they bring a positive ratio of assist to TO’s themselves, with their patience to work deeply into the shot clock making it even easier to get back and set that defense up. As a result they have only lost one time by more than six points through those 15 league games, with two of the defeats in O.T., and another by a single basket vs. Xavier.Dayton does not generate enough tempo, or bring the offensive punch (the Flyers are particularly weak from long range), to take Saint Louis out of that waltz tempo. That was not only evident in the early loss (54-54 at the end of regulation), but also in their 47-46 escape as -12 here LY, and follow-up 57-49 road loss three weeks later. It means that in 125 minutes head-to-head on the court the last two years it has been 171-161 for the Billikens, and in the last nine meetings in this series there have been five games tied at the end of intermission. This flow is not much different despite the factors they are trying to weight on the Flyer side of the ledger, and an underdog going for win #20, and a first-round bye in the A10 tourney, has every bit as much to play for as the host.

4* #614 DUKE over NORTH CAROLINA

For decades we have watched the marketplace get this type of game wrong. There tends to be such a tendency to back the underdog whenever a major rivalry game like this sports a rare high line, and in truth we can understand the thinking – it is easy to compile past performance patterns of close games between two powerhouses. But when the gap is wide it also brings an unusual element into play – the opportunity for the superior side to go for the jugular against the very opponent they would like to humiliate more than any other. So we often find ourselves alone on the chalk in these settings, and that will likely be the case again here. In the LHG for Jon Scheyer, Lance Thomas and Brian Zoubek, could there be a more resounding motivation than they fact that have never beaten North Carolina right here in Cameron?First, for some pointspread perspective. Duke is 7-0 at home in A.C.C. play, with every win coming by at least 12 points, and the average margin being 17.1. Meanwhile the Tar Heels are only 2-5 on the league road, with three of those defeats coming by 17 points or more. This line is actually short of where it should be, but those old rivalry notions come into play because that is what the markets demands.Then the matchups. Duke is a veteran and polished team (you can consider Kyle Singler and Nolan Smith to be SR’s as well in terms of experience) that plays with a real sense of purpose and design. That has not happened with North Carolina this season. We noted that the Tar Heel mental energy was getting better when we backed them successfully against Miami earlier in the week, but the floor play was its usual ugly self, with 17 turnovers. While PG Larry Drew has had a tough time learning on the job, the reality is that he just does not have much help handling the basketball – the rest of the Carolina roster has an atrocious ratio of 175 turnovers vs. only 99 assists in A.C.C. play. Yikes.Duke won the first meeting by 10 in Chapel Hill despite shooting only 22-69 from the field. It was because of that superior floor game, which led to advantages on the boards, in more assists, and in fewer turnovers. And some of that bad shooting was the presence of Ed Davis inside for the Tar Heels, who had six blocked shots in 28 minutes. But Davis is gone now, leaving an athletic but inexperienced front court that can be subject to foul trouble here. With John Henson, Travis Wear, Dexter Strickland, Tyler Zeller and Leslie McDonald playing on this court for the first time, and Drew seeing just seven career minutes, they are going to be vulnerable to the kind of mistakes that the Blue Devils take full advantage of, and given the past frustrations in this series we expect Mike Krzyzewski to get every bit of the available margin.

4* #505 NEW JERSEY over NEW YORK

No, 6-55 is not supposed to get you much respect. But for the hapless and disinterested Knicks to be in this price range is another matter entirely. New York has gone 2-11 SU over the last 13 games, with one of those wins coming in O.T. over the equally inept Wizards, and they do not bring the talent, cohesion or will to get anything easily. Mike D’Antoni used eight players in last night’s loss at Toronto, four of them who were not with the team a month ago, and only one is a natural point guard, Sergio Rodriguez, who played 17:24 off the bench.It is that hole at the point that sets this one up. Devin Harris has scored at least 17 points 11 times in the last 12 games, and his ability to beat whomever the Knicks throw against him off the dribble creates the kind of game flow that we rarely find from an underdog in this price range – they are able to attack the favorite at a specific weak spot. And note just how well they have been holding up in the road dog role, going 5-0-1 ATS since February 1st, and in the only two road outings since the All Star break they won outright at Charlotte and Boston, shattering the spread by 38.5 points in those games.Not that there is much trip here. They merely take a bus across the river while the Knicks had to fly back from Friday’s home loss in Toronto, and the crowd is no factor at all in New York home games these days. This is anybody’s game to win, with the Knicks losing outright in six of their last eight as home favorites, and the high line being offered brings us an excellent cushion.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 3-6-10

The Hoops Guru Guaranteed Selections
Date: Saturday, March 06, 2010
$25.00 Guaranteed: Last year we are 45-25 with our DOUBLE PLAYS, 68-51 with our TRIPLE PLAYS and 64-32 with our QUADRUPLE PLAYS. The previous four years my DOUBLE PLAYS are 210-114, TRIPLE PLAYS are 201-112 and QUADRUPLE PLAYS are 91-40! Today we are featuring a NBA TRIPLE PLAY WINNER that you can get for just $25 and you will pay only after you win! 3/6/2010

NBA TRIPLE PLAY WINNER
518 Phoenix -13 9:05 EST



The Hoops Guru Guaranteed Selections
Date: Saturday, March 06, 2010
$35.00 Guaranteed: Last year we are 45-25 with our DOUBLE PLAYS, 68-51 with our TRIPLE PLAYS and 64-32 with our QUADRUPLE PLAYS. The previous four years my DOUBLE PLAYS are 210-114, TRIPLE PLAYS are 201-112 and QUADRUPLE PLAYS are 91-40! Today we are featuring a NBA QUADRUPLE PLAY WINNER that you can get for just $35 and you will pay only after you win! 3/6/2010

NBA QUADRUPLE PLAY WINNER
516 Utah -14 9:05 EST

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 3-6-10

vr 5 star is dayton -11.5

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 3-6-10

Youngstown Connection
Date: Saturday, March 6, 2010
$25.00 Guaranteed Selection:

NCAA Afternoon Play #6

BYU -11 6:00PM Eastern

Line as of 12:55PM Eastern 3/6/10

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 3-6-10

Dwayne Bryant

North Carolina at Duke
Bet: Duke -14.5

Some will look at the team names and think North Carolina +14.5 is a gift. They'd be mistaken. This is a far cry from the UNC teams we've grown accustomed to seeing. These Tar Heels are just 16-14 on the season and just 5-10 in conference play. These two met in Chapel Hill on 2/10. Duke won that road battle by 10 points despite shooting just 32% from the field and 61% from the free throw line!

What do you think will happen now that the scene shifts to Cameron Indoor Stadium? I seriously doubt Duke gets held to 32% shooting at home where they average 86 points per game on 47% shooting, including 42.3% from three-point range. And I doubt they shoot just 61% from the charity stripe, given that they are hitting at a 75.6% clip for the season.

Duke's average home victory margin is 26 points this season. They've held their visiting foes to 60 points per game on 38% shooting. UNC has only shot 40.3% on the road this season, where they are just 2-7. The Tar Heels have already lost by 19 at Clemson, 21 at Maryland, and 17 at Georgia Tech. So don't doubt for a second that Duke can't pound them by 20+ tonight.

I should also note that Duke is coming off a 79-72 loss at Maryland. Duke has only lost three other games since conference play started (one was a non-conference loss at Georgetown). Duke is a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS in the game following each loss. That includes a 20-point home beatdown of Boston College, a 13-point win as just a 2-point favorite at Clemson, and a 19-point home win over Georgia Tech.

Bottom line: Duke will be motivated playing on national TV (ESPN) in their final home game of the season. Coming off a loss only adds more fuel to the fire. Duke played poorly at UNC last month and still came away with a 10-point win. I fully expect them to double that tonight. Don't let the team names fool you. This isn't the same North Carolina you're used to seeing. Lay the heavy wood with Duke.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 3-6-10

THE KINGMAKER

CBB Total Sat, 03/06/10 - 6:00 PM ƒŠ

dime bet 581 Tennessee / 582 Miss. St Over 139.0 Bookmaker.com
Analysis:
Tennessee/Miss State OVER 139 (-110) Everywhere for 10-Stars

Both team will get Over 70, but they might not soar over it. Look for a 75-72 Final, and if they go nutzo, then one might hit 80....Tennessee CAN dictate tempo in this game....



Guys: People that WANT to score against Mississippi State CAN score against them, as long as they possess an overload of tall guards that can take advantage of that PITIFUL defensive inadequacy with regard to defending the passes from the perimeter to the post. State may have a decent ARC defense, but they DO NOT excel at stuffing teams at the perimeter.



Well: They can stull some teams, because they offer two-guard sets to the 3G allignment that State likes to front.

BUT: High tempo teams like Tennessee, that are also VERY deep and VERY long, will always find easier opportunities in both shooting and in passing.

I expect Tennessee to easily surpass 70 points, and they shuffle so many players tha…t they're generally good for dragging a slower team along with them, so if you think, LIKE VEGAS THINKS, and if you agree that State has EVERYTHING to lose tonight, then you won't see them letting Tennessee run away from them.



I'll tell you right now: It will be VERY hard for State to guard Tennesse in certain parts of this game. You'll see them scoring in spurts.



And Tennessee is deep and State depends on 6 players to get the job done. Tennessee will look to exploit that weakness and simply outrun State. That passive STATE perimeter will open up more and more as they grow tired.



But they might be able to rest during the 20 or more free throw attempths that Missy will get.....Tennessee will send them to the line and those crooked officials will want to see the Dogs win this game...the crowd will influence the calls....count on it....you'll have the dead ball points you need to get this baby over 139.



Good luck!!!!!!!




The King Maker | CBB Total Sat, 03/06/10 - 10:05 PM ƒŠ

dime bet 655 La.-Monroe / 656 La.-Lafayette Over 133.0 Bookmaker.com
Analysis:
LouiSIAna Monroe/Louisana Lafayette OVER 133 (at Bookmaker and DSI) for 7-Stars

Analysis will follow...this is a 10:00 PM game€.....and YES...I'm sooo sorry for picking late games in small conference venues...I really am...but the pub is apparently going to keep driving this line away from the 136 open and folks???? They might sneeze and reach 134.

This is 7-Stars because of a terrible ATR rate for Monroe, ok?

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 3-6-10

Triple Threat Sports

3* Nevada (-) over Louisiana Tech

First and foremost, really impressed with Nevada's win over New Mexico State on Thursday, as the Aggies are a high quality team when healthy, which they were then they played the Wolf Pack. La Tech did win the season's first meeting, but not only did the aforementioned Gibson play in that contest but the Bulldogs only won by six despite attempting 14 more free throws. Now that the home zebra edge will be with UNR look for the Wolf Pack to post another win at the Lawlor Events Center.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 3-6-10

Teddy Covers

20* Big Ticket Fairfield

James Madison

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 3-6-10

Wunderdog NHL

Split their picks yesterday. Today's picks:

Game: Toronto at Ottawa (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Toronto +180 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 5.4)

Game: Carolina at Florida (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 5.5 -120 (risk 3 to win 2.5)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 3-6-10

The Consensus Pick
Pick of the Day: St. Bonaventure +15.5 (-110) [NCAA-BB]
Free Pick: Baylor -3 (-110) [NCAA-BB]

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 3-6-10

Marco D'Angelo

7* Stanford +6
4* Virginia +4,5
4* Louisville +1
4* Arizona st -9.5
5* Georgia Tech -5

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 3-6-10

Lenny Del Genio ODDSMAKER MISMATCH

Game: San Antonio Spurs at Memphis Grizzlies Mar 6 2010 8:05PM
Prediction: Memphis Grizzlies
Reason: Play on Memphis at 8:05 ET



Lenny Del Genio 15* CONFERENCE TOTAL OF THE WEEK

Game: Los Angeles Clippers at Utah Jazz Mar 6 2010 9:05PM
Prediction: under

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 3-6-10

KING CREOLE

CBB Sides Sat, 03/06/10 - 3:15 PM ƒŠ

double-dime bet 647 South Alabama 4.0 (-110) BetUS vs 648 Florida Atlantic
Analysis:
SUNBELT Conference Tournament / Hot Springs, AR

3:15pm ET / South Alabama vs Florida-Atlantic
2** Play on: SOUTH ALABAMA plus the pts

10:15pm ET / LA-Monroe vs LA-Lafayette
2** Play on: LA-MONROE plus the pts