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SOUTHERN MISS --- Gonna back another favorite here today as I have absolutely no faith in Tulane getting anything less than double digits. I think we're getting some really good line value in this one because Tulane finished the season with a very impressive 3-point win over a decent Houston team while outrebounding the Cougars 43-17. But that win doesn't erase the face the Green Wave lost 21 games this season or the fact they were a miserable 3-13 in conference play.
These two teams have already met twice this season, and Southern Miss won both of them... once by 18 and then again by 9 (at Tulane)... and history tells us the Golden Eagles are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 neutral site games, so I'm not really concerned that this isn't a true home game for Southern Miss. The Golden Eagles have the advantage in every single statistical category, including free throw percentage and rebounding, but the strength of this team all season has been its defense.
Southern Miss has allowed more than 63 points just one time in its last 16 games... a 76-point output by Memphis... and has allowed opponents to score over 63 only five times all season. And if you consider the teams they played that did most of the damage (including Ole Miss and Vanderbilt), then it becomes a little more respectable and you can clearly see how good this defense really is. For the season, the Golden Eagles allow an average of 60 PPG and have limited their opponents to 56 points or less 12 times. Considering Tulane doesn't exactly light the scoreboard up, it should be no problem for Southern Miss to keep the Green Wave shooters in check and keep this team in the 50s again today.
The Eagles are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games overall, they're 11-4 ATS in their last 15 following an ATS win, 23-9 ATS as a small favorite of less than 7 points, and 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games vs. teams from Conference USA. Anytime I can back a solid defensive team laying a relatively small number to a poor shooting team, I'll take it. I think this line is a gift. Is it Christmas already? Take the Golden Eagles minus the number.
1-Unit Play. Take #662 Stephen F. Austin (-4) over UT-Arlington
0.5-Unit Play. Take #663 Texas A&M-CC (-1) over UT-San Antonio
1-Unit Play. Take #632 Oklahoma State (-6.5) over Oklahoma
0.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 140.5 Robert Morris vs. Quinnipiac
1-Unit Play. Take Weber State (-4) over Montana
0.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 135 Montana at Weber State
1-Unit Play. Take #642 SMU (-1.5) over Central Florida
0.5-Unit Play. Take #633 Iowa State (+9) over Texas
2 TEAM 5 POINT TEASER
0.5-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #621 St. John’s (+3.5) over Marquette AND Take #623 Seton Hall (+1.5) over Notre Dame
triple-dime bet 642 Southern Methodist -2.0 (-110) BetUS vs 641 Central Florida
Analysis: NCAAB: Central Florida Knights at Southern Methodist Mustangs - SMU -2 (Best Bet) -110 | Unit Value: 3
Game Date: 3/10/2010
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