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The Mavericks have one of the more bizzare home vs. road dichotomies we've seen in recent NBA history. They come off a four-game home stand that saw the team go just 2-2 SU and 0-4 ATS. Coming in, they were riding a 13-game win streak and were 8-5 ATS in those games. Interestingly, they were a perfect 4-0 ATS in the road games during the streak. This performance has been "par for the course" this season in Dallas as the 0-4 ATS home stand dropped the team to a league worst 8-27 ATS at home. They have actually failed to cash in six straight home contests. However, tonight they are back on the road where they not only boast a 22-12 SU mark, but have also covered 61% of those contests, a very profitable margin. They play New Orleans, who ironically enough was the last team they covered at home against. Back on February 28th, the Hornets fell 108-100 at the America Airlines Arena, just failing to cash as 7.5-point underdogs. Dirk Nowitzki scored 14 of his 36 points in the fourth quarter in that game, which the Mavs led by as many as 25 points at one point. Meanwhile, the big news in the Big Easy is the impending return of PG Chris Paul to the lineup. The latest reports we've read say Paul will either come back tonight or Wednesday against Cleveland. Both are home games. He is currently listed as questionable for tonight. What this has done is put the line lower than it should be. Regardless if Paul plays or not, we're siding with the Mavericks. This is the team's first home game back off a road trip of five or more games, always a play against spot for us. The potential Paul return could disrupt chemistry as his backup, rookie Darren Collison, has actually been the lone bright spot for a team that has lost three straight and 12 of its previous 15. Peja Stojakovic has also missed the last seven games. They have scored 80 and 86 points in their last two games, the sixth and seventh time this year they've been held under 90 points and the third time this month. The Mavs "owe" the Hornets "a little payback" too with a 1-7 ATS mark in their last eight visits to the New Orleans Arens. The Hornets are 2-10 ATS their last 12 games overall. Dallas is our 20* Southwest Division Game of the Month.
Dayton has not been great on the road this year, though you have to wonder how serious the Bearcats are taking this game-since they usually expect to be playing in the NCAA Tournament rather than the NIT. Dayton is a better shooting team and more fundamentally controlled on defense. The Flyers have a few quality wins this year, which should have them right in this game up until the very end. Look for Dayton to steal the win tonight. The Bearcats probably won't even care. A good example is the USA Olympic team playing for the Bronze medal. Take Dayton.
The Spurs began a rough schedule stretch yesterday in Atlanta and started the game out strongly as they bolted to a 14 points lead against the Hawks but of course in the NBA large leads are practically meaningless and that showed once again as the Hawks rallied for an overtime victory over San Antonio. Now the Spurs must come back the very next night and deal with the Thunder on their home floor. The Thunder will be in a lousy mood themselves as they are off a shocking 20 point blow out loss to the lowly Pacers. With both teams looking to bounce back tonight and both being legitimate contenders this shapes up as an interesting battle. I like the veteran and proud Spurs catching 5 points here guys. When Tony Parker went down I thought the Spurs were basically screwed and I'll be the first to admit I've been both surprised and impressed with just how capably George Hill has stepped in to run this offense. I suspect most will be betting the Thunder at home tonight and maybe at face value that looks like the logical and safe bet. I am betting on the Spurs to make this a game into the final minute and landing safely within the number. Rabid dog Release on the Spurs catching the 5 points guys.
Sacramento is 10-3 ATS this year against Southwest Division opponents. Memphis is allowing 105.5 points per game on the road this year. Sacramento is 24-2 SU at home vs Memphis since 1996. Grizzlies are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 vs. Western Conference. Grizzlies are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite. Grizzlies are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win. Grizzlies are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win. Grizzlies are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Grizzlies are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. Grizzlies are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Kings are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Monday games. Kings are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. NBA Southwest. Kings are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a SU win. Kings are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. Kings are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 vs. Western Conference. Kings are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Kings are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games overall. We'll play Sacramento for 3 units tonight! Thanks and good luck, Rocky.
Tech still steamin about no NCAA bid, but focused in on making a run in the NIT, and U Conn stumbled in here to begin with and struggled in a 2 point win against Northeastern in their opener, while Tech Blasted their opponent by 20 points. Home game, better offense by far, and motivated, I like the Hokies here by 8 points or more. U Conn throws it in against better teams, Va Tech is flat out better at home.
For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is on the "under":
Nevada started 0-5 this year in true road games, but has since gone 5-5 away from Lawlor Events Center. "I think the guys have learned how to win on the road," Wolf Pack coach David Carter said.
The Wolpack has been doing it behind a concerted effort on the defensive end; and they'll have to be sharp after bumping off Wichita State in the first round and now face a tough Rhode Island team.
Keep in mind that the total has gone "under" the number in four of Nevada's last six away from friendly confines.
On the other side of the court: Rhode Island (24-9) beat Northwestern, 76-64, in its first-round NIT game.
But keep in mind that the Rams closed the year 4-6 in the rugged Atlantic-10.
Remember as well that the total has in fact gone "under" the number in five of Rhode Island's last six overall; also in a whopping 15 of 19 when playing against a team with a winning record.
Bottom line: I think each will try and feel the other out to begin the game as the intensity and meaning of each game from here on out gets ratcheted up; when taking all of the above into account the sharp money in this one is indeed on the UNDER!
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