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The Rockets were hammered last night in OKC, 122-104 as eight-point underdogs by the Thunder. It was their second straight double-digit road loss having also lost to a cold Chicago team by 10 two nights earlier. This will be their fifth game in seven nights and despite having an outside shot at the eight seed in the Western Conference, this appears to be a terrible spot for Houston. They are 5-13 ATS in the second night of back to backs this season. Since '96, they are a hideous 5-22 ATS at home when playing for the fifth time in seven nights. The Clippers take the court tonight with double revenge looking to win their first road game in over a month. While LA owns just one victory total in March, that win did come against what was a red-hot Milwaukee team, who is much better than Houston. League-wide, road teams with a win percentage between .250 and .400 that are playing with revenge for a road loss against a team with a wining record have gone 89-49 ATS the last five seasons. Last night, Houston allowed Oklahoma City to shoot 55.8% from the floor. Depth has become a major issue right now with three players - Jared Jeffries, Shane Battier and Jordan Hill - all missing Wednesday's game due to injury. They have two D-league call ups on the roster right now seeing minutes, which is two too many. Overall, the five Rockets reserves that saw action last night combined to shoot a horrendous 29% (9 of 31) from the floor. Simply put, we want no part of laying points with this team right now. Houston, you have a problem. LA Clippers are our NBA Oddsmaker Mismatch.
For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is on Syracuse
Butler had to hold on to beat No. 13 Murray State 54-52 and I believe its going to be in trouble tonight.
Butler is just 2-3 ATS this season as an underdog; 10-13 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record.
On the other side of the court: No. 1 seed Syracuse, which won the Big East title, is led by Wes Johnson, the league's player of the year.
The Orange are coming off 20-point victories over Vermont and Gonzaga.
Syracuse is famous for its zone defense, but with a few days to prepare for this game, I expect it to also be ready to shut down the hot perimeter shooting of Shelvin Mack, Gordon Hayward, Willie Veasley and Mack Hahn off the bench.
Syracuse is 6-2 ATS its last eight overall; 17-9 ATS as a favorite; 18-8 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record.
Without Arinze Onuaku in the lineup, the Orange continue to be an undervalued team; which perplexes me a bit, as its played so dominantly even without the big man in the paint.
Bottom line: This marks the third time in the past eight years that Butler has made it to the Sweet 16. The Bulldogs have never gone further, and won't be moving ahead after this game either; look for SYRACUSE to improve to 6-1 ATS on neutral courts this year and for Butler to fall to 2-5 ATS vs. good offensive teams that average 77-plus points per contest!
Tonight we have our first and only 4* for the month of march and one totals play which happens to be in the same game. So lets get to it!!!
4* KANSAS ST. -5 over Xavier (9:30pm et)
Well these two faced one another earlier this year and the wildcats got the win 71-56 as they dominated the offensive glass Xavier also lost to Baylor of the big12 at home a team similar to the wildcats going into the tourney the Xaviers biggest non-conference win was Florida who just made the big dance and up to now they are 4-7 SU and ats versus teams in the tourney with wins over Minnesota who was just and average team in the big ten and then Pittsburgh who was probably the 5th best team in the big east this is a lot better team here as the wildcats are the 2nd best team in the big12 and are 11-5 SU and 10-6 ats versus tourny teams with 3 of those losses coming against Kansas. The wildcats dominated the offensive glass the last time these two met and should be able to once again for Xavier to win or cover they will have to shoot the ball real well here and play great defense. I just believe this is to much to ask for Xavier as i believe the wildcats get the win and cover here tonight!!!!!
2* XAVIER/KANSAS ST. UNDER 151.5 (9:30pm et)
Well the wildcats won the first meeting 71-56 this season and Xavier is 4-0 under the total when the total is 150 or more and Kansas st is 7-4 under when the total is 150 or more. Xavier must play great defense to win and the wildcats should dominate the offensive glass which will limit the possessions for Xavier i see a 78-68 type of game here.
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