10-9-08

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-9-08

Seabass Football Regular Play 50 Star On Clemson Plus The Points. Seabass Vegas Steam 100 Star On Under Wake/Clemson.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-9-08

Wunderdog

We rate each pick 1 to 5 units with 5 being the strongest play (read about units). Risk 1% of your bankroll per unit (never risk more than 5% of total bankroll on any pick).

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers at Philadelphia (8:15 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Philadelphia -134 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 2.2)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total OVER 7.5 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7)

Cole Hamels gets the ball for the Phillies here while Derek Lowe gets the assignment for the Dodgers. Both of these pitchers had fast finishes to the regular season, and have been pitching well. The Phillies and Dodgers have played to a 4-4 mark this season, but what looks like even is really not. The Dodgers were swept clean in Philly, four straight, and not a single one of the games was even competitive. The Phillies slugged and pitched their way to a 27-5 advantage, out-scoring the Dodgers 6.8-1.3. That has been one of the Dodgers problems all season long. They have the worst road record of any team left in the post-season. The Phillies have been a super team down the stretch at home as they are 20-6 in their last 26 played here. They are 27-10 as a home favorite of -125 to -175 this season. Under Torre the Dodgers are just 4-13 on the road vs. AL East opponents. I like the Phillies here in game one, as well as the OVER. The last six times Lowe has started vs the Phillies the games have gone OVER. The Phillies have played 8-3 OVER vs a team with a losing road record. Finally, when either Hamels or Lowe have pitched this year in a Philles vs Dodger matchup, the average runs scored has been 10.7 per game. Take the home team and the OVER.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-9-08

Northcoast Marq.

Clemson
Over Hst

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-9-08

Tony Smith`s 100 VIP Release WAKE FOREST (-2) and Stu`s Thursday night card 40 DIME CLEMSON (+3) and in Baseball LA. DODGERS(Lowe) at PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES(Hamels) 20 DIME UNDER (7)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-9-08

LT Profits

Maple Leafs / Red Wings UNDER 5.5

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-9-08

Alex Smart

CLEMSON +2.5

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-9-08

ATS FINANCIAL

3 units Houston
3 units Dodgers/Phillies under

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-9-08

Nite Owl Sports
Sport: College Football
Game: Clemson Tigers @ Wake Forest Demon Deacons - Thursday October 9, 2008 7:30 pm
Pick: 2 units MONEYLINE: Clemson Tigers +112



While we have other FB games this WE that we like better than this one (see below), we believe the best value at these "prices" is taking Clemson on the money line at +112, a much better deal than laying -110 (> a 20 cent difference in the odds) to get Tigers ATS with just 2.5 points.We will wait and see if point spread ever goes up to +3, in which case we will also take Clemson ATS, for two or 3 units, while if it stays at +2 or 2.5, we may "officially" take them ATS at that line for one unit, but in such event would recommend "buying up" to +3 if you can do so for -125 or less in "juice." We may also have one or two individual team totals picks on this game, but those lines have not yet been posted by the books that offer them.

Looking at this match-up and the performances of both teams to date, we are struck mostly by the huge edge Clemson has over Wake in the running game, as well as the projected rushing edge they should have in this game. For example, Clemson averaged 5.4 YPC in disappointing home loss two weeks ago to maryland (caused mostly by 3 Tiger turnovers), and 5.7 YPC in their non-covering 27-9 win earlier over a struggling NC State team. Contrast that to Wake's miserable rushing #s TY, not only averaging only about two YPC on offense, but on defense allowing good rushing offenses to control the ball and the clock by putting together long, time consuming sustained drives, which is what Navy did to Deacons LW in Winston-Salem, where Middies ran for nearly 300 yards and averaged 5 YPC, in upsetting Wake 24-17 as 11 point dogs, while Deacons were equally ineffective running (just 43 YR on 1.4 YPC and two lost fumbles) and passing, with 4 INTs by QB Riley Skinner. So even a "mentally challenged" HC like Clemson's Tommy Bowden should be able to figure out a run-oriented game plan complimented with lots of play action passes by accurate passer QB Harper, to monopolize the game clock and limit Wake's offensive possessions.

Clemson has been a bit hard to figure so far TY, as despite their under-achieving record both SU (1-2 vs Div I opponents) and ATS (0-3 in lined games), Clemson both runs and passes well, and why shouldn't they, with the return TY of not only QB Cullen Harper (who LY passed for nearly 3000 yards on 65% completions and a stellar 27/6 TD/INT ratio) but also top two RBs James Davis and CJ Spiller, who together rushed for > 1900 yards LY, with each averaging at least 5 YPC)? But Tigers just have not been "in sync" very often this season, with their season opening "dud" performance vs Alabama (which now does not look as bad as it did then) and surprising home upset loss to maryland, with those 3 TOs. But Tigers have had two weeks (bye week LW) since that maryland loss to figure things out and get back "on the same page," and based on LY's score and #s vs Wake, it's no 'stretch" to assume they will do exactly that tonite, as in that game they pounded the Deacons 44-10, and outrushed them 4.3 YPC to 2.2 YPC.

So how have these two combatants tonite done in their respective modes for this game (Clemson as a small road pup and Wake as a small home fave)? While Clemson had no opportunities LY as a road dog, they have gone 4-0 ATS and 3-1 SU (only SU loss being by one point, at Ga Tech, in 2006) in the two prior seassons (2005 and 2006) as road dogs of 1-4 points, with the same HC and a similar team. And if you expand the point spread range to road games L3Y in which Tigers were either faves or dogs in this 1-4 point spread range, you get a larger sampling (9 games) in which they went 6-3 SU. Contrast to Wake, which has been a model of inconsistency L2+Y as a home fave, having gone 0-2 as same (but double digit faves) in 2006 (their "glory year" when they finished 11-3 and played in their only BCS bowl in school history), then went 3-0 LY as home faves of 1-6 points, with average MOV (margin of victory) of 18 points, but then regressed to 0-2 ATS TY (1-1 SU), with a two point squeaker over Ole Miss as 7 point faves and that dreadful upset loss to Navy discussed in detail above.

So based on the above, we suggest going with Clemson on the money line at this good "plus odds" price, and also taking them ATS, but only at +3 (if your line is +2.5 but you can "buy up" to +3 for -125 juice or less, we would recommend that).Once individual team totals lines are released, we will do an update for our subscribers, in which we will likely have at least one individual team totals play as part of our full betting attack strategy for this game.


While we like Clemson in this game both on the "plus money line" and ATS at +3, there are several FB games this WE (both CFB and NFL) that we like even better, such as our 5 unit Mountain West Round-Up Game of the Week on saturday. So we strongly recommend either our 7 day CFB/NFL combo pack for just $99, with ALL OF OUR FB PICKS through this WE and MNF, or our 7 day All Sports Pass for $129, which also includes our MLB Playoff picks. And speaking of MLB, we are already 4-1 on our playoff side picks TY, and were 10-1 for +23 units in LY's playoffs.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-9-08

John Ryan

Game: Clemson at Wake Forest Oct 9 2008 7:45PM
Prediction: Wake Forest

Reason: Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Wake Forest ? AiS shows a 73% probability that Wake Forest will win this game by 3 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 76-39 ATS for 66% since 2002. Play against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread and is a good team, winning 60-80% or more of their games on the season. Wake is in a solid role for this game noting that they are 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when playing against a good team sporting a win percentage of 60% to 75% over the last 3 seasons; 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons. Wake Forest is also 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons. HC Bowden has not displayed much resiliency when on an ATS losing streak. He is 10 ATS (-9.0 Units) after 3 or more consecutive losses against the spread as the coach of Clemson. Further, Clemson has a 3-2 mark with 3 of those wins coming against some of the worst teams in the country. They lost to Maryland and Alabama while defeating the Citadel, South Carolina State, and NC State. Wake has had a far more challenging schedule having defeated Mississippi ( who defeated Florida) Baylor, and won at Florida State. They got caught looking ahead to this game losing to Navy last week. Well, now there is NO look ahead and their focus is squarely on this important ACC conference game. Take Wake Forest.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-9-08

2008-10-09 RON RAYMOND'S 5* PRIVATE PLAYERS PLAYS
Pick # 1 Boston Bruins / Colorado Avalanche Under 5.5 -130



RON RAYMOND'S 5* NLCS GAME 1 PICK
Pick # 1 Los Angeles Dodgers / Philadelphia Phillies Over 7.5 -110
Reply With Quote

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-9-08

Handicapper: INDIAN COWBOY

Wake Forest is the POD

3 units (Normal) ATS: UAB Blazers +18 (-110)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-9-08

Northcoast Marq.

Clemson
Over Hst

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-9-08

Stu Finer Thursday night card

40 DIME CLEMSON (+3) and

in Baseball LA. DODGERS(Lowe) at PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES(Hamels) 20 DIME UNDER (7)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-9-08

vegas-runner | MLB Money Line
triple-dime bet902 PHI (-131)Sportsbetting.com vs 901 Dgr
Analysis:
**** NLCS 4* GAME of the MONTH ****

(Hamels vs Lowe)



*** Please Check Back on Thursday for Possible UPGRADE to 5* GOY Wager ***



Let me start off by saying that the "outfits" went ahead and bought up some Dodgers in Game 1...but the reason that don't concern me is because I spent more than my share of years making those very bets...and they are simply based on value gained by "public perception"...which is going to drop the number anyway...So we would try to beat them to it, since the majority of rec bettors wait until the final hour to wager...And just like so many times in the past, the result is a drop in the number, just like we are seeing for this one...But I wouldn't be surprised to see them come back the other way Thursday, especially if the public money continues to come in on the Dodgers for Both, the series and more importantly for this bet...in Game 1...

So we have covered what the market is doing...and how it is likely to react as we approach game-time...And like I stated, every book that I went by the past 2 night's all have said the same thing...The Dodgers are being bet as if they already won the series...

Well, that is just fine by me because it will only allow us to get more value throughout the series...So let's look at this Game 1 and why I believe this is an excellent spot for the Phils to come out and grab a 1-0 lead...

And as always, I will try to touch on those factors we are using which aren't the obvious, readily available stats that we will see over and over again throughout the series...



For starters...the Home Team has won every game between the 2 this season...and if we take a look at the Phils (50-33), it tells us that we could have laid up to -150 at home and come out ahead...and on the flip side, we see the Dodgers are only 38-45 on the road...

Next, we get to back Cole Hamils at home, at a price of -131...and probably even less tomorrow morning...Well let me tell you that the average price to back Hamels at home was "-190"...so that alone is at times enough, to grab the value and back the Phils...

But it's a lot more than that...true the Dodgers are definately a different team than the one we all saw throughout the season, especially before the Manny deal...but these 2 teams met in August, so we can use what we see to help us capp this match-up and series...

And what I really like is the fact that the Phils kept Manny extremely quiet, and he did absolutely nothing offensively...and if he struggles, I believe the confidence will start to dwindle...like we saw with the Rockies in last year's World Series...Another thing I like for Game 1, is the fact we all know Hamels beat the Dodgers at home 9-2...but more importantly, although the Phils lost 4-3 with him starting for them in LA...the bottom line is that he left the game in the 7th with the lead...and it was a rare blown save by the bull-pen which got LA the win...It had nothing to do with them having their way with Hamels...In fact, in 14inn against LA, Hamels only allowed 4er...

Finally, in Game 1 of a 7 Game Series in All Sports...the Home Team Wins 67% of the time...and 65% in the Semi's...which equates to a lay price of around -200...and we are being asked to lay much less in this one...Although in MLB, that number may drop to 58%, we are still getting very much the best of it at the price we are being asked to lay...

We will definately discuss many more details throughout the Series for both clubs...but for GAME 1, everything that I have worked on points to a PHILS WIN...and you all know that throughout the season, our success came from having the ability to prognosticate projected scoring based on starting pitching, bull-pens, offense, and defense...and for this game, the results show the PHILS winning by 0.78 of a run...which would result in an average line of -185...

So let's go ahead and make our FIRST 4* GAME OF THE MONTH Bet...on the PHILLIES to Win Game 1...VR





*** NLCS 3* SERIES BEST BET ***



1.) PHILLIES -105 (3*)



Rather than cover more stats and trends...I would like to use this opportunity to pass along some things that I have learned about SERIES BETS which have definately allowed me to Profit with them in the Past...I was fortunate enough to learn this from the older "sharps" out here who made so much of their profit from future bets, during a time when the books weren't as sophisticated or even accurate in pricing futures...and here is what I was told...

You only make a series wager based on the Price that is being offered for the Series...now that sounds pretty elementary...but what that means is that as soon as you make that Series Wager...you need to be the kind of bettor who could fold that ticket, put it away...and forget you ever made it until it's time to cash...or there is a nice opportunity to hedge...

The problem most bettors face is that they will follow their series bet, even if it's going down in flames...meaning they will continue to believe and hope that what they thought would happen...still will...even though it's obvious that it won't...

I have never had that problem and after 2 games if I believe that the Dodgers are going to win the series...I will jump ship and look to ride them to Profit...Because once again...the series bet is simply based on the price being offered compared to what our work says it should be...and in this situation...I would have had absolutely no problem at all laying up to -130 on the Phils in this series, even only because they are at home, with the edge they could gain by the smaller ball-park, if their bats start to get hot...

But like I said...we were able to see a lot more than just that while breaking this series down...and at the price they have set...there is only one way to bet this one...So let's go ahead and make the PHILLIES -105, our 3* BEST BET for the NLCS...and then put that ticket away and look to exploit the individual games...VR

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-9-08

VR NCAAF..

vegas-runner | CFB Total Double-Dime Bet

106 Houston / 105 UAB Over 66.5 BetUS
Analysis: ** 2* TOTAL **