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Re: 4-6-10
STEVE MERRIL
MLB: Padres/D-Backs U9
NBA: Jazz-5.5
STEVE MERRIL
MLB: Padres/D-Backs U9
NBA: Jazz-5.5
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Re: 4-6-10
jeff benton tuesday selections
Tuesday's Action 15 Dime: Jazz
10 Dime: RAYS on the run-line (minus 1 1/2 runs) ... NOTE: List James Shields and Kevin Millwood as the starting pitchers. If either does not start, this play is VOID!
Jazz
Nobody loves the Oklahoma City Thunder as much as I do – not only have they been the NBA’s best story this year, but they’ve made their supporters a ton of cash (their 45-31 ATS mark ranks third in the league, and that includes a terrific 25-13 ATS road record).
However, this is an absolute must-win game for Utah, which is tied with Denver atop the Northwest Division standings, and both teams are just 1½ games ahead of Oklahoma City. The Jazz also need this game for their psyche, as they’ve lost all three previous meetings to the Thunder this season, including a 104-94 home loss back around Thanksgiving (the other two games were played in Oklahoma).
As good as the Thunder have been, the Jazz have been a little bit better in pretty much all facets. Not only is Utah’s overall record better, but the Jazz are actually better against the spread (47-27-3) than Oklahoma City. They’re also better at home (31-8 SU, 26-11-2 ATS) than the Thunder are on the road (23-15 SU, 25-13 ATS), and the Jazz average 104 ppg overall on 49.1 percent shooting, compared with Oklahoma City’s 100.9 ppg on 46.3 percent shooting.
Utah comes into this game on a nine-game home winning streak, and it has cashed eight of those nine victories. The average margin of victory in those nine wins: 16.7 ppg.
Finally, the Thunder are in a brutal scheduling spot. They went from Philadelphia (March 30) to Boston (March 31) to Dallas (Saturday), then came home to play the TWolves (Sunday). Now they face the Jazz in Utah tonight, go home to play the Nuggets tomorrow and the Suns on Friday, followed by a trip to Golden State (Sunday) and Portland (Monday). Add it up and that’s nine games in 14 days, with six of those nine games on the road and six of those nine games against playoff opponents. In fact, stretch it back to March 26, and Oklahoma City is in the midst of a stretch in which it is playing eight of 11 games against teams – Lakers, Blazers (twice), Celtics, Mavericks, Jazz, Nuggets and Suns – that will qualify for the postseason.
Bottom line: As noted above, the Jazz have to have this game. At the same time, because of the scheduling situation, this contest is going to test the mental capabilities of the young Thunder. And with another game against a divisional rival 24 hours away (back at home), I have to believe this is one of those late-season flat spots we always see in the NBA.
Rays (-1½ runs)
I actually think the Baltimore Orioles will be much-improved this season and will finally climb out of the A.L. East cellar. But I also believe Tampa Bay will return to its 2008 form – when it went to its first World Series – and challenge the Yankees and Red Sox for the division crown.
The Rays are absolutely loaded, with five All-Stars sprinkled through their balanced lineup and a bunch of young, strong arms both in the starting rotation and bullpen. And for the first time since I can remember, Tampa Bay has a bonafide closer in flame-thrower Rafael Soriano, who had a career-best 27 saves for the Braves last year. Soriano was easily the Rays’ biggest offseason acquisition, as the lack of a regular stopper at the back of the bullpen was the reason Tampa finished with only 84 wins last year.
Tonight, the Rays trot out veteran right-hander James Shields, who is far better than his numbers last year (11-12, 4.14 ERA) show. During the Rays’ World Series run in 2008, Shields was 14-8 with a 3.18 ERA, and he’s been the team’s workhorse the last three years, making 31, 33 and 33 starts. Shields has been way more dominant in his career at home (26-14, 3.38 ERA) than on the road (17-22, 4.76 ERA), and the same held true last year when his home ERA (3.75) was nearly a fun run lower than his road ERA (4.62).
Then again, Shields’ success at home just mirrors that of his team. Over the past two seasons, Tampa Bay is 109-53 at Tropicana Field, the second-best home record in baseball during this stretch. That includes a 16-5 record the last 21 times the Rays have hosted Baltimore. Overall, Tampa is 22-8 in the last 30 meetings in this rivalry.
Shields himself has had his way with the O’s, going 6-2 with a 2.92 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP and a 70-24 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 15 starts. Finally, the Rays are 9-1 in Shields’ last 10 starts against the O’s, including 5-1 in the last six at home. And seven of Tampa’s last eight wins against Baltimore with Shields pitching have been by multiple runs.
Throw in the fact that Tampa’s potent lineup has feasted on Baltimore starter Kevin Millwood (6.18 ERA in five career start vs. the Rays), and this has all the makings of a multiple-run rout.Comment
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Re: 4-6-10
Jimmy Boyd...
TOP PLAY =- Sport Date Matchup Book Starts
NBA Apr 06 '10
10:05p San Antonio Spurs vs Sacramento Kings
Take: Sacramento Kings +6½-110 in 4h
5* Never Lost Tuesday NBA *BEST BET* on Kings +6.5
The San Antonio Spurs were already playing without All-Star point guard Tony Parker. Now, they'll be playing without his replacement tonight. George Hill is expected to miss at least two games. He has averaged 15.8 points in 41 games as a starter this season. Now Manu Ginobli is really the only guy San Antonio has that can create for himself and others, and this has coach Popovich worried. "I'm a little worried about everything that's coming up now without George," coach Popovich said. "It's going to be difficult to ... have Manu (Ginobili) play the point in all these games coming up. We'll have to figure something out." It's likely they won't have that "something" figured out tonight. Plus, after a huge win over the Lakers to secure a playoff spot, this one has letdown written all over it. Kings Rookie of the Year candidate Tyreke Evans is coming off one of his worst performances, shooting just 2 of 12 and finishing with six points. Expect a big bounce back game from him tonight. San Antonio is 0-8 ATS off an upset win as an underdog this season, losing in these spots by an average score of 88.5 to 96.8. The Kings have either won, or lost by 3 or fewer points in their last 5 home games against the Spurs. We'll take the points tonight.
Sport Date Matchup Book Starts
MLB Apr 06 '10
10:05p Seattle Mariners vs Oakland Athletics
Take: Seattle Mariners +120 in 4h
3* MLB Smart Money Massacre on Mariners +120
We cashed in with the Mariners last night and they are showing some nice value again this evening in the underdog role. Ian Snell takes the hill for Seattle after owning the A's last season, going 2-0 with a 2.45 ERA against them. Dallas Braden is set to take the hill for the A's, but he has been a poor investment as a favorite. In fact, the Athletics are just 3-12 in Braden's last 15 starts as a home favorite. The Mariners are now 18-5 in the last 23 meetings in this series, and we'll take them again tonight.
Sport Date Matchup Book Starts
NBA Apr 06 '10
9:05p Oklahoma City vs Utah
Take: Utah -5½-110 in 3h
4* Major NBA Motivational Mismatch on Jazz -5.5
I'll back the Jazz in an extremely motivated spot tonight. Utah is well rested, and it will be out for blood after enduring an embarrassing loss to the Lakers Friday night. Furthermore, the Jazz are 0-3 against the Thunder this season so they are going to want this one badly. Here's the key: Plays on home favorites in a triple revenge situation - 3 straight losses vs. an opponent, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%), are 75-36 ATS since 1996, including a perfect 2-0 ATS this season. The team out for revenge is winning by 7.6 points on average in these spots so I think we are getting some decent value with this line. The Jazz are the best bounce back team in the NBA at 23-6 ATS in their last 29 games following a S.U. loss. They are also a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. loss of more than 10 points. Bet Utah tonight.
Sport Date Matchup Book Starts
NBA Apr 06 '10
7:05p Toronto Raptors vs Cleveland Cavaliers
Take: Toronto Raptors +7-115 in 1h
3* SMASH on Raptors +7
The Cavs have nothing to play for at this point with home court already locked up throughout the playoffs. Now, it's time to decrease the minutes of the starters to make sure they enter the playoffs fresh. This bodes well for the Raptors tonight as they will be extremely motivated to win with the Bulls right on their tail for the 8th and final playoff spot in the East. The Raptors are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games. The Cavaliers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games overall, 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. loss and just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. Take the points.Comment
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